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Status of Juba and Shabelle River Breakages - March 2017

The Gu 2017 (March/April to June) rainfall forecast points towards near-normal to below-normal rains within the Juba and Shabelle River basins. However, flooding along the two rivers may still occur, especially in areas with open river banks/weak river embankments, in the event of increased river flow. SWALIM has updated the status of the river breakages by mapping them using available Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM); as well as verifications based on field observations where feasible. All the observations reported refers to the latest suitable VHR satellite image available, which is indicated in the online database. Four types of breakages have been identified, namely; open, potential, closed with sandbags and closed. The open breakages are those that are still open as observed on the latest VHR image available, therefore a field verification is needed before planning any repair. The potential breakages represent points that have weak river embankments. The closed with sandbags points are defined here as those that been temporarily closed with sandbags making them still vulnerable for further breakages. The closed points are those that were previously open but have since been closed using heavy machinery, which prevents further flooding in the short to medium term. The attached maps show the open, potential and closed with sandbags points along the two rivers. In summary, eighteen (18) open points along the Shabelle and nineteen (19) along the Juba were identified. Several other points, which are either potential or temporarily closed with sandbags, have been identified. It is worth noting that the methodology relies heavily on satellite images with limited field verification. Open breakages might have been omitted in some cases where satellite images may not have been very clear (e.g. heavy cloud cover) or were not available at all. Maps of the status of river breakages, with detailed information, have been produced at large scale and can be obtained from SWALIM offices.

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Map

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Update on drought situation and river levels along Shabelle River

Most parts of Somalia are facing serious drought conditions with the larger part of the population facing severe to extreme drought conditions. Since the last half of 2016, the severity has been spreading spatially and the impacts getting worse with time. Some climate models are already predicting a poor rainy season in the coming season which may further aggravate the existing drought conditions. However, this forecast will be confirmed in the coming month during a regional Climate Outlook Forum. The months of January and February usually experience the lowest amounts of river flow along the Shabelle River. January 2017, has however seen significantly below normal levels along the river since the beginning of the month. Some parts of the river in the lower reaches have dried up. This has been caused by below normal rains experienced in the upper parts of the Shabelle basin during the previous season which in turn has led to reduced river flow and over utilization of the river water for various uses both in Ethiopia and inside Somalia.

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Drought watch

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 1-11-2016

There will be a significant reduction of rainfall activities in most parts of the country in the coming three days. Most areas in the country will remain dry with exception of the southern coast that may receive light rains.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 18-11-2016

The northern and central parts of Somalia are expected to remain dry in the coming three days while the southern parts and the Ethiopian highlands will be expected to receive light to moderate rains during the same period.

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Flood watch bulletin

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 30-11-2016

In the next three days light to moderate rains will be received in southern and central parts of the country and the Ethiopian highlands. The north western regions will receive scattered rains while the north eastern parts will remain dry in the same period.

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Rainfall Forecast

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SWALIM-FSNAU Drought Watch Bulletin 15-11-2016

The Somalia Water and Land Information Management (SWALIM) and the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) are pleased to share with you their joint publication: Somalia Drought Watch for October 2016. The key highlights are: 1). Moderate to Extreme drought conditions are being experienced in the country. The negative trends are not expected to reverse until the next rains, which are anticipated in April 2017. 2). During the month of October 2016, most parts of Somalia recorded poor rainfall amounts, with most regions registering 25 to 50 percent of average. 3). Vegetation conditions worsened and drought conditions strengthened and continued to affect pasture, water, livestock and crops, with vegetation cover (NDVI) 60 to 70 percent of average in southern regions. 4). Prospects of Deyr cereal production are bleak, with crop failure expected in many areas. 5). Juba and Shabelle river levels are currently below normal; the resulting competition for irrigation water is likely to lead to deliberate breakage of embankments, adversely affecting downstream users

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Drought watch

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 24-11-2016

A few pockets in the western parts of Somaliland and southern regions in Somalia will experience light rains while moderate to heavy rains are expected in the Ethiopian highlands in the coming three days. The rest of the country will remain dry in the same period.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 7-11-2016

The southern parts of the country and the upper catchments of the Juba and Shabelle Rivers at the Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive light to moderate rains in the coming three days. The northern parts of the country will remain dry in the same period.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 22-11-2016

The southern parts of the country and the upper catchments of the Juba and Shabelle Rivers at the Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive light to moderate rains in the coming three days. The northern parts of the country will remain dry in the same period.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 17-11-2016

The three days accumulated rainfall forecast is calling for light rains of up to 20mm in some parts of the southern regions of Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands . The rest of the country will remain dry during the forecast period.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 28-11-2016

Light scattered rains are expected in a few areas at the central and southern parts of the country, especially along the coast. The rest of the country will remain dry in the next three days. Light to moderate rains are expected at the Ethiopian highlands in the same period.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 11-11-2016

Minimal rainfall activities are expected across Somalia in the next three days, apart from the southern coastal areas which may receive light rains. The upper catchments of the Juba and Shabelle Rivers at the Ethiopian highlands will also remain dry in the same period.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 23-11-2016

There will be reduced rainfall activities in most parts of Somalia in the coming three days with exception of the lower reaches of Juba and Shabelle regions where light rains are expected in the forecast period. Moderate to high rains are also foreseen within the Ethiopian highlands in the next three days.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 04-10-2016

Some parts of the Somalia have recorded moderate rains within the last one week which could be a possible start of the Deyr rainy season. The rainfall forecast for the next three days points towards light to moderate in parts of Puntland Somaliland as well in the upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands. The rest of the country is expected to remain dry during the same period.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 19-10-2016

Light to moderate rains have continued to be received in parts of Somalia. In the coming three days light to moderate rains of up to 40mm are expected in the central parts of the country and the Ethiopian Highlands. The northern and southern regions are expected to remain dry during the forecast period

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 11-10-2016

The rainfall forecast for the next three days points towards light rains of up to 30mm cumulatively in the inland parts of Somaliland and Puntland. The Upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands may experience moderate rains while rest of the country is expected to remain dry during the same period.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 28-10-2016

Light rains are expected to be experienced in parts of Sanaag and Togdheer regions in the northern parts of Somalia and a few places in the southern regions bordering Ethiopia. The Ethiopian highlands whose rainfall contribute significantly to the river flow of Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia are also expected to receive light to moderate rains within the forecast period. The rest of the country will receive little or no rains in the same period.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 06-10-2016

Some parts of the Somalia have recorded moderate rains within the last one week which marking a possible start of the Deyr rainy season. The rainfall forecast for the next three days points towards light to moderate in parts of Puntland and Bakool region in the south as well in the upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands. The rest of the country is expected to remain dry during the same period.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 25-10-2016

The three days accumulated rainfall forecast is calling for light rains of up to 20mm in the southern parts of of Somalia and a few pockets of Bari region in the north. Moderate rains are expected in the Ethiopian highlands during the same period. The rest of the country will remain dry during the forecast period.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 12-10-2016

Moderate rains have been reported in parts of Somaliland and Puntland in the last 24 hours. The rainfall forecast for the next three days points towards light rains of up to 40mm cumulatively in the inland parts of Somaliland and Puntland. The Upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands may experience light rains while rest of the country is expected to remain dry during the same period.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 31-10-2016

There will be a significant reduction of rainfall activities in most parts of the country in the coming three days. Light rains are expected in a few pockets in the southern parts of the country. The central and northern parts of Somalia will remain dry in the same period. Dry conditions are also foreseen tin the Ethiopian highlands during the forecast period.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 07-10-2016

The rainfall forecast for the next three days points towards light to moderate of up to 30mm in parts of Bari, Nuugal, Sool aand Sanaag regions all in the north eastern parts and Bakool region in the south as well in the upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands. The rest of the country is expected to remain dry during the same period.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 27-10-2016

There will be a reduction of rainfall activities in most parts of Somalia in the coming three days with exception of Puntland regions where moderate rains are expected in the last day of the forecast period. Moderate rains are also foreseen within the Ethiopian highlands in the next three days.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Status of Juba and Shabelle River Breakages - Sep 2016

The Deyr 2016 (October to November) rainfall forecast points towards near-normal to below-normal rains within the Juba and Shabelle River basins. However, flooding along the two rivers may still occur, especially in areas with open river banks / weak river embankments, in the event of increased river flow. SWALIM has updated the status of the river breakages by mapping them using available Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM); as well as verifications based on field observations where feasible. Three types of breakages have been identified, namely; open, potential and closed. The open breakages are those that are still open during the month of September 2016. The potential breakages represent points that have weak river embankments or have experienced breakages in the recent past and where minimal or no interventions have taken place. This includes breakages closed using sand bags. The closed breakages are those that were previously open but have since been closed using heavy machinery, which prevents further flooding in the short to medium term. The attached maps show the open and potential river breakages along the two rivers. In summary, seven (7) open points along the Shabelle and 63 along the Juba have been identified. Several other points with potential of breaking have been identified and need to be strengthened. It is worth noting, however, that the methodology relies heavily on satellite images with limited field verification. Open breakages might have been omitted in some cases where satellite images may not have been very clear (e.g. heavy cloud cover) or were not available at all. Maps of the status of river breakages, with detailed information, have been produced at large scale and hard copies can be obtained from SWALIM offices. This information is also available on the SWALIM Flood Risk and Response Management Information System (http://systems.faoso.net/frrims/rivers/riverbreakages).

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Somalia Deyr 2016 Rainfall Outlook

According to the recently issued Seasonal Climate Forecast for the Greater Horn of Africa by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) in Kampala, Uganda, the 2016 Deyr rains in Somalia are expected to be below normal to near normal - with a 40% probability of experiencing below normal rains and a 35% probability of near normal rains in the entire country. The upper catchments of the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Ethiopia are also expected to record depressed rains during the season. Please see attached for more details. Please note that this is a consensus forecast designed for a regional audience that addresses the rainfall totals summed over the three-month period from October to December, 2016. SWALIM and other technical partners will keep updating this forecast and monitoring performance of the rains for shorter time periods and will update you throughout the Deyr season via regular bulletins.

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Rainfall Outlook

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