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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 08 November 2022

Most parts of south and central Somalia received light to moderate rains over the last one week. Some of the stations that recorded good rainfall amounts in the past week include Bulo Burti 28mm, Balad 19mm, Bardheere 18mm, Luuq 13.5mm and Jowhar 9mm. Widespread rains were also received in Bay, Middle Juba and Lower Juba regions during the week. In Somaliland and Puntland there has been a reduction in rainfall amounts with most stations recording little or no rains. Most regions in Somaliland and the southern parts of the country have experienced pasture regrowth and replenishment of water catchments, and this has led to a reduction in water and pasture stress. However, more rains with good intensity and distribution are required to bring to an end the current drought conditions as the amounts received are still inadequate to alleviate the condition especially in sustaining pasture and crop growth. The central regions of Nugaal, Muudug, Galgaduud and southern parts of Bari region have not received any significant rains and the drought conditions are worsening by day. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate to heavy rains in the southern regions. The coastal areas of Somaliland and northern Puntland are also expected to receive moderate to heavy rains. Exceptional cumulative rains are foreseen in Awdal especially in areas bordering Djibouti, which may result to flash floods. The central regions and inland areas of Puntland will receive minimal rains during the forecast period. Ethiopian highlands will receive moderate rains during the week in focus. Given the rainfall forecast, the river levels in both Juba and Shebelle are expected to increase slightly towards the end of the week with no risk of flooding.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 15 November 2022

There was reduced rainfall activities across Somalia over the last one week. Few stations in Somaliland recorded moderate rains, including Las-Dawaco 83.5mm and Dhubato 35mm, while light rains were recorded in Dararweyne 14mm, Lughaye 14mm, Zaila 13mm and Xaji – Salah 12 mm. In Puntland Calulla station recorded 13.4mm. The rest of the country remained either dry or received light showers. As the Deyr season comes to the peak, more rains are required to bring to an end the current drought conditions across Somalia. The rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate rains across the central and southern regions of Somalia. Parts of Bay and Bakool regions will however receive heavy rains, of up to 100mm cumulatively, within the coming week. The northern parts of Bari and Sanaag regions will also receive heavy rains in the coming week. The rains will be more along the coast of Bari, where cumulatively 150—200mm of rains are expected within the next seven days. The risk of flash floods in these areas is high, resulting from the heavy rains. Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togheer, Sool and Nugal regions will be mainly dry over the forecast period. Scattered light showers may however be experienced in few places. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive light rains, while the lower parts, near the Somalia border, will receive moderate rains in the coming week. River levels along Juba and Shabelle continued to decrease over the last one week. Given the rainfall forecast, the levels in both rivers are expected to increase slightly within the coming week with no risk of flooding.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 23 November 2022

In the last one week most parts of Somaliland and Puntland remained dry with a few stations recording light rains (Bandar Beyla 19mm, Galkacyo 5mm, Balli Dhiddin 2.4 mm). Little or no rains were recorded in Central Somalia during the same period. The Deyr rains however continued in the southern regions. Some of the stations that have recorded significant rains include Belet-Weyne 65mm, Mataban 61mm, Mahas 36mm, Bulo-Burti 36mm, Bandar-Beyla 19mm, Bualle 18mm and Balcad 12mm. The rains received so far provide an immediate relief to water stress, but more rains are required to bring to an end the current drought conditions across Somalia. The rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate rains in most parts of southern Somalia while few pockets of the central areas will receive light showers. Similarly, the Shabelle and Juba upper reaches in Ethiopia will receive moderate rains during the forecast period. Pockets of Nugaal, Sool, Sanaag and the coast of Bari are expected to receive light to moderate rains during the same period. The rest of the country is expected to remain dry. River levels along Juba and Shabelle are currently within the average at this time of the year. Given the rainfall forecast, the levels in both rivers are expected to increase slightly within the coming week with no risk of flooding.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 01 November 2022

Most parts of south and central Somalia have received moderate rains with good distribution over the last one week. In Bay and Bakool regions heavy rains were recorded in Baidoa recorded 144mm, Dinsoor 103.5mm, Quansadheere 66.4mm, Huddur 45.5mm and El barde 41mm over the last one week. Other places in the region where good rains were reported over the last week are Bulo burti 62mm, Bur Hakabar 50mm, Dollow 44.6mm, and Mataban 40mm. Somaliland and Puntland also continued to receive rains over the last one week, but the amounts were reduced compared the rainfall amounts recorded in the previous two weeks. The ongoing rains have contributed to a reduction of water stress, and pasture generation. However, more rains with good intensity and distribution are required to bring to an end the current drought conditions as the amounts received are still inadequate to alleviate the condition. The rains need to be sustained for long period to sustain pasture and crop growth. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate to heavy rains in most parts of the Juba catchment within Somalia, the lower parts of Galgadud region, and along the Gulf of Aden Coast in Sanaag and Bari regions. The rest of the country is expected to receive scattered light to moderate rains. The Ethiopian highlands will receive heavy rains during the same forecast period. Juba river level has been rising steadily over the last one week, as a result of heavy rains in Ethiopia and within the Somalia. The levels reached high risk levels in Dollow and Bardhere, before starting to go down in the last 2 days. Shabelle river is also high, and above the short term mean. Given the rainfall forecast in the Ethiopian highlands and in Somalia, there is medium risk of flooding in both rivers, especially in sections with weak or open embankments.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 05 October 2022

The ongoing Karan rains /early kick off of Deyr seasonal rains continued to spread with intensity and in space over the last two weeks in the northern parts of Somalia with some stations recording 50mm to 100mm of cumulative rains. In particular, some of the stations that received good rains in both Puntland and Somaliland include; Las Anod 56mm, Baran 48mm, Burtinle 41mm, Xasbahale 37mm, Aburin 98mm, Dilla 97mm, Quljeed 71mm, Caynabo and Sheikh 48mm. Galckayo, in the central areas, received a total of 56mm while the rest of the country recorded little or no rains. The observed rains have contributed significantly to a reduction of water stress, especially in Hargeisa, Borama and Gebilley districts of Somaliland, but it will take sometime before the ongoing drought situation can be reversed. Other parts of Somaliland remains under severe drought conditions. Equally, immediate relief to water stress was realized in parts of Puntland following the rains; however, more rains with good intensity and distribution are required to improve the current drought conditions. The central and southern regions continue to experience severe drought conditions. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate to heavy rains in Somaliland and Puntland. Most parts of the south and central areas will record light to moderate rains during the forecast period and areas bordering Ethiopia and Kenya will receive scattered showers. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands will also receive good rains. River levels along Juba and Shabelle rivers are currently below the short-term average. Given the rainfall forecast in the Ethiopian highlands, the river levels are expected to increase from the second week of October. Users are advised that this is a forecast, and there may be discrepancies between estimates and actual amounts of rainfall received. Information on the forecast and observed river levels is updated daily and can be found on this link: http://frrims.faoswalim.org.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 18 October 2022

The Deyr rains continued to spread in time and space over the last few days with many places in Somaliland and Puntland, especially those bordering Ethiopia recording significant rainfall amounts. Notably, some of the stations where good rains were recorded over the last one week include Las Anod 167mm, Balidhig 40.5mm, Xasbahale 83.0 mm, Burtinle 39.0 mm and Eyl 74.0 mm. Wanle Wayne, in the central Somalia received a total of 9.0 mm, while the rest of the region recorded little or no rains. The observed rains have provided immediate relief to water stress in these areas, temporarily improving the drought conditions. However, more rains with good intensity and distribution are required to bring to an end the current drought conditions. The central and southern regions of Somalia are yet to receive any substantial rainfall, and severe drought conditions prevail. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates heavy rains in Somaliland and Puntland with the highest amounts expected in areas close to the Ethiopian border. Moderate rains are expected in most parts of the South and Central save for Gedo region and areas bordering Kenya which are expected to receive little or no rains. Given the rainfall experienced in the Ethiopian highlands during the last two weeks and rainfall forecast for the coming week, the Juba and Shabelle river levels are expected to continue rising over the forecast period.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 25 October 2022

The last one week has been characterized by heavy rains in many parts of Somaliland and Puntland. As a result of the heavy rains Qardho experienced severe floods on 23rd October that led to destruction of infrastructure and property. Las Anod recorded a total of 104.0 mm in one day; while in the same week Caynabo received 91.0mm, Elafweyn 77.5mm, Dhahar 71.0mm, Eyl 74.0mm, Salaxley 63.5mm, Balidhiig 61mm, Las Dacawo 57mm, Talleh 48mm, Galkayo 48.0mm, Xasbahale 42.0mm, Burtinle 39.0mm, Dhubbato 38.0mm and Sheikh 36.0mm. Moderate rains were recorded in few stations in the central and southern regions, including Wanle Wayne 18.8mm and Mahas 15.5mm. Large parts of this region recorded light or no rains over the past one week. More rains with good intensity and distribution are required across the country to bring to an end the current drought conditions. The rains need to be sustained for long period, and more spatially distributed to sustain pasture and crop growth. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates heavy rains in Togdheer, Sool, Hiraan, Bakool and Galgaduud regions. Moderate rains are expected in the rest of the country save for the coastal areas of Bari region, and parts of Awdal region that may receive little or no rains. Middle and Lower Juba areas near the Kenyan border will also receive light rains, same with the coastal areas of Lower Shabelle region. The Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive heavy rains. Shabelle river level is currently high and given the rainfall forecast in the Ethiopian highlands, flooding may occur in sections with weak or open embankments. The risk is minimal along Juba river, as current levels are below average for this period.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 27 September 2022

Over the last two weeks, light to moderate rains have been reported in parts of Somalia, marking the onset of Deyr season. However, many parts of the country remain hot and dry. The western parts of Somaliland continued to receive good rains over the last two weeks. Some stations that recorded good rains over this period include Amoud 162mm, Qulujeed 100mm, Aburin 84mm, Sheikh 81mm and Magalo-Cad 68mm. Bari and Nugaal Regions of Puntland also received scattered rains, with Baran station recording the highest amount of 132mm over the past two weeks. Few areas in the central and southern regions of Somalia received light rains. The rains received so far are however of minimal impact, and the country continues to experience severe drought conditions. The rains are expected to spread in time and space during the coming weeks. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates scattered light rains across the country. Few pockets of moderate rains are expected in Togdheere, Sool and Sanaag Regions. Galgadud, Bakool and Lower Juba will also receive moderate rains in few places. The Ethiopian highlands where Juba and Shabelle rivers originate will have moderate to high rains during the forecast period. River levels along Shabelle and Juba, and which have been rising since beginning of September have slightly dropped over the last one week. The levels are currently within the short term mean for this period.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 06 September 2022

Many parts of Awdal and the western areas of Woqooyi Galbeed in Somaliland continued to receive moderate to heavy rains over the last two weeks. Some stations that recorded good rains over that period include Taysa 95mm, Borama 75.5 mm, Gebilley 63mm, Aburin 59.5mm, Hargeisa 59mm and Magalo–Cad 48mm. The Karan rains in this region have so far been good, and if sustained would provide relief to the current drought conditions. Other parts of Somaliland remained dry. In Puntland dry conditions prevailed except for light scattered showers in Iskushuban, Baran and Buuhodle districts. In the central and southern regions scattered light to moderate rains were recorded in Dinsoor 49mm, Baidoa 32.5mm and Mogadishu 41.3mm. The rest of the region continued to experience hot and dry conditions, worsening the existing drought conditions.

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Somalia Drought Update – Issued 12 August 2022

Drought conditions improved slightly in the southern coastal areas and Awdal region in July following moderate Karan rains. Although the rains were not well distributed, they improved the vegetation conditions, which may be short-lived due to an influx of livestock into these areas. The other areas were dominated by dry and hot weather conditions, worsening drought severity in many parts of Somalia, leaving 90% of the country under extreme drought conditions. The groundwater levels across the country are going down, at alarming rates in some regions, from over pumping due to increased pressure to meet demand. Water trucking for domestic and animal use has been intensified. The Juba and Shabelle River levels are below the short-term average, with little water available to support irrigation of crops and other uses.

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Status of River Breakages along Juba and Shabelle Rivers, August 2022

Four consecutive poor rainy seasons in most parts of the Horn of Africa region have resulted to current serious hydrological drought conditions in Somalia and neighboring countries.. Juba and Shabelle Rivers, with the headwaters in the Ethiopian highlands have remained below the long term average since the beginning of 2022, negatively impacting agriculture production, domestic and livestock water use for the riverine communities. The low river levels however provide an opportunity to fix the river breakages and weak embankments, ahead of the next rainy season. SWALIM has updated the status of the river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers using available Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM). Five types of breakages have been identified, namely; open, overflow, potential overflows, potential breakages and closed with sandbags. The open breakages are those that are currently open as observed on the latest VHR image available. All the observations reported refers to the latest suitable VHR satellite image available, which is indicated in the online database. 100 Open breakage points have been identified, 70 on the Shabelle River and 30 on the Juba River which require immediate action. 13 Overflows were also identified during this season. Jowhar district was worst affected along the Shabelle while Bu’aale and Jilib districts are worst affected along the Juba. Users are advised that the methodology is biased towards Remote Sensing (RS) interpretation with only limited “ground truthing” due to access constraints. Open breakages might have been omitted in some cases where satellite images may not have been very clear (e.g. heavy cloud cover) or were not available.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 19 July 2022

Over the last week, Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Bay, Lower Juba, Middle Shabelle and Lower Shebelle Regions continued to receive light Karan rains. Some of the stations that recorded rains include Borama 7.5 mm, Dilla 5 mm, Bottor 17 mm, Wajaale 18 mm, Aburin 7 mm and Gebiley 6 mm in Somaliland; and in the Southern Regions Wanle Wayne 46 mm, Mogadishu 28 mm and Jowhar 35 mm. The last two days have, however, seen a reduction in recorded rainfall amounts across the regions that have been experiencing the Karan rains recently. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the coming week calls for a reduction of the Karan rains with light showers expected in Wooqoyi Galbeed, Togdheer and Awdal regions of Somaliland and the coastal areas of the Middle and Lower Shabelle regions. Light showers are also likely in the Sanaag region during the same period.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 26 July 2022

The last one week has seen a reduction in recorded rainfall amounts compared to previous weeks since the onset of the Karan rains. Most parts of the country remained dry for that period. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate rainfall in Awdal and the western side of Woqooyi Galbeed region; while in eastern Woqooyi Galbeed and parts of Togdheer Regions light rains are foreseen. Light rains are also foreseen along the coastal strip in the southern regions. The rest of the country will remain dry for the coming week. Moderate to high rains are expected in the Ethiopian highlands, where Juba and Shabelle Rivers originate. Despite the rains received in parts of the country, drought conditions persist across Somalia. The rains need to be well distributed and sustained over long period, to alleviate the current drought situation. The ongoing rains in Ethiopian highlands have led to a slight increase in river levels inside Somalia, and consequently restoring the river flow in the lower reaches of Shabelle which has been constantly reducing since May. River levels are however still below normal at this time of the year.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 26 July 2022

The last one week has seen a reduction in recorded rainfall amounts compared to previous weeks since the onset of the Karan rains. Most parts of the country remained dry for that period. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate rainfall in Awdal and the western side of Woqooyi Galbeed; while in eastern Woqooyi Galbeed and parts of Togdheer Regions light rains are foreseen. Light rains are also foreseen along the coastal strip in the southern regions. The rest of the country will remain dry for the coming week. Moderate to high rains are expected in the Ethiopian highlands, where Juba and Shabelle Rivers originate. Despite the rains received in parts of the country, drought conditions persist due across Somalia. The rains need to be well distributed and sustained over a long period, to alleviate the current drought situation.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 05 July 2022

Over the last week, parts of Somaliland and the Southern regions recorded light rains. Specifically, some of the stations which recorded notable amounts of rain include; Jowhar 34 mm, Baidoa 24 mm, Kismayo 19 mm, all in the South; while in Somaliland, Wajaale received 17 mm, Gebilley 13 mm, Baki 10 mm and Borama 8 mm within the same period.  The rainfall forecast for the coming week indicates light to moderate rains in parts of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed and Togdheer Regions. The coastal areas of Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba regions will also receive light rains. The uppermost parts of the Ethiopian highlands will record moderate rains, which may lead to a slight increase in river levels within Somalia in the coming week. The rest of the country will remain dry, which is normal at this time.  Current drought conditions, however, continue to persist across the country, even in areas where it has rained, as the amounts received are localized and inadequate to alleviate the condition.  River levels along the Shabelle and Juba are below the average for this period of the year. 

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 13 July 2022

The western parts of Somaliland (Wajaale and Gebilley) and southern coastal regions, including Mogadishu, Kismayo, and Jamame, continued to receive light Karan lights over the last week. The rest of the country remained dry, which is expected at this time of the year. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the coming week calls for light to moderate rains in Wooqoyi Galbeed and Awdal in Somaliland and the coastal areas of the Shabelle and Juba regions. Light showers are also expected in the inland areas of the Bay region during the same period. The Ethiopian highlands, whose rainfall is mainly responsible for the river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia, will receive light to moderate rains in the coming week.

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Somalia Drought Update and GU 2022 Rainfall Performance – Issued 14 June 2022

The 2022 Gu rainy season in Somalia came to an early end in May, with depressed rainfall amounts recorded and forecasts indicating little to no rainfall through mid-June . The overall seasonal rainfall performance was poor. The northern areas recorded 30% to 60% of the average rainfall while the central and southern areas received 45 % to 75%. This marks a fourth consecutive failed rainy season since late 2020. Gu season rainfall has moderated drought conditions in most parts of the country as it replenished pasture and water resources. However, this improvement is expected to be short-lived as and drought conditions are expected to worsen throughout the prolonged dry Hagaa (July-September) dry season. Current climate forecasts indicate a 62 per cent chance of La Niña  during the June to August 2022 period (IRI). La Niña is generally associated with drought conditions in the Horn of Africa region, including Somalia. The next seasonal rains are not expected until mid-October and available long-range forecasts indicate that a record fifth below-average rainy season is likely across Somalia during the forthcoming October and December 2022 Deyr season. This could set the conditions for a worsening multi-season drought well into 2023. More than 80 per cent of Somalia is currently facing severe to extreme drought conditions. The drought severity levels are comparable to that of 2010/11 and 2016/17 as seen in Annex I. Water resources are expected to decline drastically during the forthcoming dry season as water demand and use increases. In Garowe, there was abnormal drop in ground water level of seven meters between October 2021 and May 2022 (Annex II). The Juba and Shabelle River levels are currently 30 percent below the short-term average, with limited water available to support irrigation of crops and other uses. The river levels are expected to decrease further in the coming weeks and months. The vegetation conditions that had improved in some areas as a results of the Gu season rains are expected to be depleted soon due to the low level of biomass recovery and likely influx of livestock into these areas. The Prospects for Gu season cereal production remain bleak, with crop failure expected in many areas . Due to the poor rains, some communities did not plant during this season. Dry and hot conditions will continue across most parts of the country during this dry Haggai (June/July-September ) season except for parts of Somaliland that will receive moderate Karan rains. With no significant rains foreseen until the next rainy season in October, and the La Nina predictions, the current drought situation will deteriorate further in Somalia. The negative trends are not expected to reverse until the arrival of Deyr (Oct-Dec) 2022 rains. However, the preliminary forecast for the Deyr 2022 season is also below average—FEWSNET

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 30 June 2022

The period from June to September is generally dry in Somalia. However, Somaliland especially the western parts received localized rains during this period, known as Karan rains. Along the coastal areas of the southern regions scattered rains were also experienced during this period. Over the last one week rains were observed in parts of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Bay, Lower Juba, Middle Shabelle and Lower Shebelle Regions. The rains have been mainly light and lacking spatial distribution, apart from few areas where moderate rains were recorded and surface water sources recharged. Some of the stations where moderate rains were received over the last one week include Kismayo 26.6mm, Baidoa 20.9mm, Jowhar 18mm, Buaale 14mm, and Qansax Dheere 14.5mm in the south; while in Somaliland Wajaale station recorded 40mm, Gebiley 29mm, Amoud 25mm, Baligubadle 20mm and Borama 14.5mm within the same period. Current drought conditions however continue to prevail across the country, even in areas where it has rained, as the amounts received are localized and inadequate to alleviate the condition. The rains need to be sustained for long period, and more spatially distributed to sustain pasture and crop growth. The rainfall forecast for the coming week indicate light to moderate rains in parts of Awdal, Woqooyi Galdeed and Togdheer Regions. Bay Region and the coastal areas of Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba are also expected to receive light to moderate rains in the next one week.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 25 May 2022

The last two weeks have seen a significant reduction of rainfall across Somalia marking a possible early end of the Gu 2022 rainfall season. There is cause for concern as observed rainfall records indicate that some parts in the central regions of Galmudug as well as Bari and Nugaal regions in Puntland received minimal rains since the start of the season. Cumulatively, the rainfall amounts recorded so far are below average with a typical poor distribution in space and time. This marks the fourth consecutive failed rainy season in Somalia, a situation that has not been witnessed in the recent history. According to current climate model (https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/), indicate there is 62 per cent (62%) chance of the La Nina phenomena during the June to August 2022 period. The phenomena is largely associated with drier than normal periods in the country. With no significant rains foreseen as the season comes to an end and the La Nina predictions, the existing drought situation will deteriorate further in Somalia. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days is calling for a further reduction of the seasonal rains with light rains expected in pockets of a few regions. In the same period moderate to low rains are expected in the upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands. River levels along the Juba and Shabelle reduced over the last one week, and the trend is expected to continue in the coming week, given the rainfall forecast.  

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 04 May 2022

In the last one week many parts of Somalia recorded moderate rains. In Somaliland, stations like Amoud, Borama, Yagori, Waridaad and Malawle recorded significant rains of above 70 mm. In the South, many stations including Bur Hakabar, Balcad, Bardheere and Buale recorded rainfall between 15mm to 25mm. The last 24 hours saw heavy rains in parts of Puntland in Bari region and areas around Las Canood. This has led to flash floods subsequently causing damage in different sectors. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the coming week indicates moderate to heavy rains in parts of the central and southern regions of the country especially in Galgaduud, Hiraan and Lower Juba, while light to moderate rainfall of below 30 mm is expected within the Ethiopian highlands. Most parts of Somaliland and Puntland are expected to receive little or no rains in the coming one week. Given the rainfall forecast, flash flooding may occur in the southern areas of Galgaduud region and along the coastal areas of Lower Juba between 04 and 05 May 2022, . While the rains experienced since the start of the Gu season have reduced water stress in many areas, it is worth noting that, the foreseen rains in the coming week are not yet sufficient to alleviate the current drought conditions in the country, and more rains with good temporal and spatial distribution are required during the season in order to improve the situation. Besides, the cumulative rainfall forecast for the month of May 2022 is expected to be below normal in most parts of the country according to ICPAC.    With the rains experienced during the last week in the country and the Ethiopian highlands, river levels along the Juba and Shabelle increased sharply over the last few days and will continue increasing during the week in focus with no risk of flooding.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 19 May 2022

In the last two weeks there has been a significant reduction of rainfall across Somalia except for a few places along the southern coast. Generally, the seasonal rains have been low in parts of the country, while in other parts localized heavy storms were experienced within a few days, resulting to flash floods such as Las Anod in Sool Region, Ceerigabo in Sanaag, and Jedaal/Ufeyn in Bari Region. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days shows light rains along the coastal areas of Lower Juba. Scattered light rains are also expected in parts of the central and southern regions. Most parts of Somaliland and Puntland will remain dry within the coming week. In the Ethiopian highland where Juba and Shabelle Rivers originate light rains are expected within the same period. It is worth noting that the Gu 2022 rainy season started late in Somalia, and the rainfall amounts recorded so far are below normal in many parts of the country, with poor temporal and spatial distribution. More rains are required to alleviate the current drought conditions. With no significant rains foreseen as the season comes to an end, the existing drought situation may deteriorate further in all the water dependent sectors. River levels along the Juba and Shabelle reduced over the last one week, and the trend is expected to continue in the coming week, given the rainfall forecast.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 13 April 2022

The Gu rains which started in the second half of March 2022 in parts of Somalia were followed by a prolonged dry period of more than 15 days making the rains ineffective. The prolonged dry period led to a significant water deficit further deteriorating the drought conditions. The last two days have seen scattered light rains in a few places in the southern parts of the country while the northern parts remained dry. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the coming week indicates light to moderate rains in the southern and central regions as well as within the Ethiopian highlands. Light rains are foreseen in pockets of the northern regions during the forecast period It is worth noting that, the foreseen rains in the coming week are not sufficient to alleviate the current drought conditions in the country, more rains with good temporal and spatial distribution are required during the season in order to improve the situation.    River levels along the Juba and Shabelle are still within the historical minimum and are expected to start increasing at the end of the April given the rainfall forecast.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 20 April 2022

After a prolonged dry period of three weeks since the start of the Gu rains, parts of the southern regions in Somalia recorded light to moderate rains in the last few days. The central and northern parts of the country however remained dry. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the coming week indicates moderate to heavy rains in the southern regions as well as within the Ethiopian highlands. In the north, light rains are foreseen in pockets Sanaag while moderate rains are expected in Woqooyi Galbeed and Toghdeer regions. The central and Puntland areas will remain dry during the forecast period. It is worth noting that, the foreseen rains in the coming week are not yet sufficient to alleviate the current drought conditions in the country, and more rains with good temporal and spatial distribution are required during the season in order to improve the situation.    River levels along the Juba and Shabelle started to increase over the last few days and are expected to continue with the increasing trend during the week in focus.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 27 April 2022

In the last one week the southern regions as well as parts of Somaliland recorded moderate rains while the central and larger parts of Puntland remained dry. In Somaliland, Awdal and Wooqoyi Galbeed regions recorded significant rains between 24 and 26 April with some areas receiving over 50mm of rainfall. Likewise, Gedo region in Dollow district recorded heavy rains on 25 April. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the coming week indicates moderate to heavy rains in most parts of the country as well as within the Ethiopian highlands. Specifically, heavy rains are expected towards the end of the week in focus around 2nd and 3rd of May in pockets of Wooqoyi Galbeed, Sanaag, Togdheer, Lower Shabelle and Bay regions. While the rains will lead to immediate relief of water stress in many areas, it is worth noting that, the foreseen rains in the coming week are not yet sufficient to alleviate the current drought conditions in the country, and more rains with good temporal and spatial distribution are required during the season in order to improve the situation.    River levels along the Juba and Shabelle are expected to continue increasing during the week in focus with no risk of flooding.

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Somalia Drought Update & GU 2022 Rainfall Outlook–Issued March 2022

Many parts of the country remained generally dry throughout the month of February 2022 leading to persistence of drought conditions. Pasture and water are in extremely poor conditions and close to a complete depletion in key pastoral livelihoods across Somalia. Severe water crises has resulted to increased water trucking and prices, which pastoral and agro pastoral households meet through increased debt accumulation and/or livestock sales. Current drought conditions are expected to worsen until the start of Gu season rainfall in April. The high demand for water is overstretching the few functional permanent water sources in the country. Preliminary results from the ongoing SWALIM water sources survey across the country indicate 15 to 24 pumping hours per day for many boreholes. Body condition of small ruminants and cattle has deteriorated to poor and very poor conditions, leading to death of offspring (calves, kids, lambs) as well as lactating animals due to prolonged drought conditions. Livestock migration options remain limited due to exhausted rangelands and weak body conditions. Current river levels along the Juba and Shabelle rivers are currently below their historical minimum, with dry riverbeds observed in many sections of the two rivers. This conditions will get worse until the start of Gu season rainfall in April.

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