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Somalia Flood Watch Bulletin 10-05-2017

During the week ending on 09 May 2017, there were light to moderate rains within the Juba and Shabelle river basins both inside Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is pointing towards light to moderate rains within the Juba and Shabelle river basins with heavy rains foreseen in the coastal areas of the basins inside Somalia. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands are also expected to record significant rains during the week in focus. Following the rains that were recorded in the basins in the last few weeks, the river levels along the two rivers rose significantly and are currently above normal levels at this time of the year. Given the rainfall forecast and the high river levels, there is a high risk of flooding along the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle River. Flooding in Middle Shabelle has been reported in Madheere Village and has caused damage to large amounts of cropped area and displacement of some households. There is no risk of flooding foreseen along the Juba during the forecast period.

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Flood watch bulletin

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 04-05-2017

Light to moderate rains continued to be received in a few places across the country in the last two days. Togdheer and Woqooyi Galbeed regions in Somaliland recorded good rains which was well distributed in space and time since 01 May 2017. Southern parts of the country also received good rains in a few pockets since the beginning of the month. There was a significant reduction of rainfall activities in Puntland over the last two days. The rains are expected to continue in most parts of the country in the next seven days but with less magnitude. The Ethiopian highlands are also expected to continue receiving rains during the same period. This is will turn lead to increased river levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. Riverine flooding has been reported in Middle reaches of the Shabelle River due to existing open river banks and weak river embankments. Users are advised that this is a forecast and at times there may be discrepancies between forecast and actual amounts of rainfall received.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 23-05-2017

Most regions of Somalia will remain dry for the next three days, apart from few areas in Somaliland and Puntland where light showers are expected in the same period. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is pointing towards light to moderate rains in Puntland and parts of Somaliland. Light rains are also expected in a few areas in the Central and coastal areas of the South. The upper parts of Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive moderate rains. Users are advised that this is a forecast and at times there may be discrepancies between forecast and actual amounts of rainfall received.

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Rainfall Outlook

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 17-05-2017

The northern parts of he country and coastal areas in the south will continue to receive rains in the next three days. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is pointing towards moderate to heavy rains in the basins both in the Ethiopian highlands and inside Somalia. Many areas in Puntland and Somaliland will also continue to receive rains during this period

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 15-05-2017

Light rains are expected to prevail for the next 3 days (Map 1) in a few places within Puntland and Somaliland as well as the coastal areas of southern regions in Somalia. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 21 May 2017 (Map 2) shows light to moderate in parts of Somaliland, Puntland and coastal areas of southern Somalia including the Ethiopian highlands. Most of the rains are expected towards the end of the week. Other parts of the country will remain dry during the forecast period. The river levels are also expected to rise given the forecast.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Rainfall Update - March to 04 May 2017

The Gu rainy season kicked off in the last week of March in some areas of Somaliland including southern parts of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed and Togdheer regions. The March rains were poorly distributed in terms of space and time, but provided an immediate relief to water stressed areas. The month of April saw a reduction of rainfall activities with most stations recording below normal rains for the month. There was a relief in the last week of April when heavy rains were observed in many areas. A few stations continued to receive rains in the beginning of May especially in Togdheer region. In general, despite the good short lived rains, the amounts so far received in Somaliland are below average and not adequate to support the current water stress in the area. More rains with good distribution are required to end water scarcity. The Forecast for the coming two weeks calls for continued rains in the area especially in Woqooyi Galbeed and Togdheer regions. River levels along the two rivers inside Somalia have subsequently been rising since the last two weeks with the rising trend set to continue in the coming weeks.

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Rainfall Performance

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 25-05-2017

Most parts of Somalia will remain dry for the next three days, apart from few areas in Puntland where light showers are expected. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is pointing towards light to moderate rains in Puntland and parts of Somaliland. Light rains are also expected in the coastal areas of the Central and South Somalia. The upper parts of Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive moderate rains.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 02-05-2017

Rainfall activities intensified in many parts of the country over the last three days. Flash floods were reported in some places including Bari, Nugaal, Mudug and Bay regions following the heavy rains. Most stations in these regions recorded over 50mm in the three days with Baidao station recording 100mm on 30 April 2017. The rains are expected to continue in most parts of the country in the next seven days but with less magnitude. The Ethiopian highlands are also expected to continue receiving rains during the same period. This is will turn lead to increased river levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. There is no risk of flooding along the rivers during the forecast period. Users are advised that this is a forecast and at times there may be discrepancies between forecast and actual amounts of rainfall received.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Flood Watch Bulletin 19-05-2017

The northern parts of he country and coastal areas in the south will continue to receive light rains in the next three days. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is pointing towards heavy rains in Nugaal, South of Sool and north of Mudug regions. Other regions in the north will receive light to moderate rains. The upper parts of Ethiopian highlands and southern coastal areas of Somalia are expected to receive moderate rains. Little or no rains are expected in central and inland southern regions of the country during the forecast period.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Flood Watch Bulletin 16-05-2017

During the week ending on 16 May 2017, there was a significant reduction of rains within the Juba and Shabelle river basins inside Somalia. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands continued to receive good rains during the same period. Map - 1 shows the total satellite Rainfall Estimates (RFE) for the same reporting period while Map –2 shows the rainfall forecast for coming week. The rainfall forecast for the coming week (Map – 2) is pointing towards moderate to heavy rains in the basins both in the Ethiopian highlands and inside Somalia.no Following the rains that were recorded in the basins in the last few weeks, the river levels along the two rivers rose significantly and are currently above normal levels at this time of the year Given the rainfall forecast and the high river levels, there remains a high risk of flooding along the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle River. Flooding in Middle Shabelle has been reported in Mahadey, Jowhar and Balcad districts which have caused damage to large amounts of cropped area and displacement of some households. There is no risk of flooding foreseen along the Juba during the forecast period.

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Flood watch bulletin

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 09-05-2017

Light to moderate rains continued to be received in a few places across the country in the last two days. The rains are expected to continue in most parts of the country in the next seven days. The rainfall forecast for the coming week (Map 2), indicates moderate to heavy rains in Somaliland and Puntland. Light to moderate rains are foreseen in the southern parts while central regions are expected to remain dry during the same period. The Ethiopian highlands are also expected to continue receiving rains during the same period. This is will turn lead to a further increase in river levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. Riverine flooding has been reported in Middle reaches of the Shabelle River due to existing open river banks and weak river embankments. There remains a moderate risk of flooding in middle and lower reaches of Shabelle. No risk of flooding is foreseen along the Juba. Users are advised that this is a forecast and at times there may be discrepancies between forecast and actual amounts of rainfall received.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 19-04-2017

The rainfall forecast for the next 24 hours (Map 1) indicates no rains in the country except a few pockets of Sanaag in the north and Gedo in the south that may receive light rains. The rains are however expected to increase towards the end of the week spreading in several places across the country. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 25 April 2017 (Map 2) shows moderate to heavy rains Somaliland and western parts of Puntland. A few pockets of Bari and Nugaal will also see light rains during the forecast period. Other places that are expected to receive good rains include the southern and central regions bordering Ethiopia. Moderate to heavy rains are also foreseen in the Ethiopian highlands which may lead to increased river levels inside Somalia towards the end of the week. Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle and the coastal areas of Galgaduud and Mudug regions will remain dry.

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Flood watch bulletin

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 06-04-2017

Light rains were reported in a few places in southern regions of Somalia in the last 24 hours. Belet Weyne in Hiraan recorded 5mm of rainfall while Wanle Weyne in Lower Shabelle, and Bur Hakaba in Bay received a total of 10mm and 8mm respectively. Light rains were also reported in a few pockets of the western side of Somaliland while no rains were reported in Puntland during the same period. Field reports also indicate light to moderate rains within the Ethiopian highlands. The rainfall forecast for today (Map 1) indicates light rains of up to 20mm in the southern regions, parts Somaliland and the Ethiopian highlands. The rains will increase in the same areas in terms of space and quantity as the week progresses as seen in Map 2 which is valid up to 12 April 2017. Little or no rains are foreseen in Puntland and central regions during the forecast period. Given the forecast, the river levels along the Juba and Shabelle are expected to increase with no risk of flooding during the coming week. The levels and rainfall forecast are updated on a daily basis and can be found in this link: http://systems.faoso.net/frrims/

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 26-04-2017

The rainfall forecast for the next 24 hours indicates light to moderate rains parts of northern areas of the country especially in Togdheer, Sanag, Sool, Bari and Nugaal regions. Other parts of the country will remain dry within the next 24 hours. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 02 May 2017 shows moderate to heavy rains in most parts of the country including the Ethiopian highlands. Most of the rains are expected towards the end of the week. Given the forecast, cases of flash floods cannot be ruled out especially in the northern areas within the week. The river levels are also expected to rise given the forecast. Users are advised that this is a forecast and at times there may be discrepancies between forecast and actual amounts of rainfall received.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 04-04-2017

The Gu 2017 rainy season started in parts of Somaliland during the last week of March. Many stations in the region recorded moderate rains while southern parts of Awdal region recorded heavy rains that were distributed within five days. This brought an immediate relief to the area which has been experiencing a prolonged dry period like the rest of the country. More rains are expected in April and May. The rains are yet to start in many other areas of the country, including Puntland and southern regions. The rainfall forecast for today (Map 1) indicates no significant rainfall amounts but the rains are expected to intensify with the time and space during the week ending on 10th April, 2017 as seen in Map 2. The Cumulated rainfall forecast for the week is pointing towards moderate to heavy rains in the southern regions and the Ethiopian highland (20 to 100mm). Light to moderate rains of up to 40mm is expected in Somaliland while Puntland and central regions will remain dry.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 20-04-2017

The rainfall forecast for the next 24 hours indicates no significant rains in the country. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 26 April 2017 shows moderate to heavy rains Somaliland and western parts of Puntland. A few pockets of Bari and Nugaal will also see light rains during the forecast period. Other places that are expected to receive good rains include the southern and central regions bordering Ethiopia. Moderate to heavy rains are also foreseen in the Ethiopian highlands which may lead to increased river levels inside Somalia towards the end of the week. Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle and the coastal areas of Galgaduud and Mudug regions will remain dry.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 10-04-2017

The week ending 09 April 2017 saw moderate rains in parts of Somaliland and southern regions in Somalia. No significant rains were reported in Puntland. The Ethiopian highland also received good rains that led to a sharp increase in river levels inside Somalia and consequently restoring the river flow in the lower reaches which had gone dry since the beginning of the year. The rainfall forecast for the next 24 hours (Map 1) indicates little or no rains in the country. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 16 April 2017 shows light to moderate rains in few pockets of Somaliland, Bay and Bakool with little or no rains in other regions (Map 2).

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 05-04-2017

The Gu 2017 rainy season started in parts of Somaliland during the last week of March with the southern parts of Awdal region recording heavy rains that were distributed within five days. This brought an immediate relief to water stress in the area. The other parts of the country are expected to start receiving the Gu rains by mid April. The rainfall forecast for today (Map 1) indicates light rains of up to 20mm in the southern regions, parts Somaliland and the Ethiopian highlands. The rains re expected to increase in the same areas towards the end of the week as seen in Map 2 which is valid up to 11 April 2017. Little or no rains are foreseen in Puntland and central regions during the forecast period.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somali Dekadal Rainfall - Dekad 11 of 2017

The Gu rains started in may parts of Somalia with below average performance in Southern regions. During the second Dekad of April 2017 (11th – 20th), there was a reduction of rainfall activities in in many places from the previous dekad. The season is yet to start in Puntland and the central regions of the country which remained dry remained dry during the same period causing more concern in the drought stricken areas. Moderate rains received in the in the Ethiopian highlands in the beginning of the month led to an increase of river levels along the Juba and Shabelle.

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Dekadal Rainfall Update

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Status of Juba and Shabelle River Breakages - March 2017

The Gu 2017 (March/April to June) rainfall forecast points towards near-normal to below-normal rains within the Juba and Shabelle River basins. However, flooding along the two rivers may still occur, especially in areas with open river banks/weak river embankments, in the event of increased river flow. SWALIM has updated the status of the river breakages by mapping them using available Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM); as well as verifications based on field observations where feasible. All the observations reported refers to the latest suitable VHR satellite image available, which is indicated in the online database. Four types of breakages have been identified, namely; open, potential, closed with sandbags and closed. The open breakages are those that are still open as observed on the latest VHR image available, therefore a field verification is needed before planning any repair. The potential breakages represent points that have weak river embankments. The closed with sandbags points are defined here as those that been temporarily closed with sandbags making them still vulnerable for further breakages. The closed points are those that were previously open but have since been closed using heavy machinery, which prevents further flooding in the short to medium term. The attached maps show the open, potential and closed with sandbags points along the two rivers. In summary, eighteen (18) open points along the Shabelle and nineteen (19) along the Juba were identified. Several other points, which are either potential or temporarily closed with sandbags, have been identified. It is worth noting that the methodology relies heavily on satellite images with limited field verification. Open breakages might have been omitted in some cases where satellite images may not have been very clear (e.g. heavy cloud cover) or were not available at all. Maps of the status of river breakages, with detailed information, have been produced at large scale and can be obtained from SWALIM offices.

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Map

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Update on drought situation and river levels along Shabelle River

Most parts of Somalia are facing serious drought conditions with the larger part of the population facing severe to extreme drought conditions. Since the last half of 2016, the severity has been spreading spatially and the impacts getting worse with time. Some climate models are already predicting a poor rainy season in the coming season which may further aggravate the existing drought conditions. However, this forecast will be confirmed in the coming month during a regional Climate Outlook Forum. The months of January and February usually experience the lowest amounts of river flow along the Shabelle River. January 2017, has however seen significantly below normal levels along the river since the beginning of the month. Some parts of the river in the lower reaches have dried up. This has been caused by below normal rains experienced in the upper parts of the Shabelle basin during the previous season which in turn has led to reduced river flow and over utilization of the river water for various uses both in Ethiopia and inside Somalia.

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Drought watch

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 1-11-2016

There will be a significant reduction of rainfall activities in most parts of the country in the coming three days. Most areas in the country will remain dry with exception of the southern coast that may receive light rains.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 18-11-2016

The northern and central parts of Somalia are expected to remain dry in the coming three days while the southern parts and the Ethiopian highlands will be expected to receive light to moderate rains during the same period.

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Flood watch bulletin

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 30-11-2016

In the next three days light to moderate rains will be received in southern and central parts of the country and the Ethiopian highlands. The north western regions will receive scattered rains while the north eastern parts will remain dry in the same period.

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Rainfall Forecast

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SWALIM-FSNAU Drought Watch Bulletin 15-11-2016

The Somalia Water and Land Information Management (SWALIM) and the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) are pleased to share with you their joint publication: Somalia Drought Watch for October 2016. The key highlights are: 1). Moderate to Extreme drought conditions are being experienced in the country. The negative trends are not expected to reverse until the next rains, which are anticipated in April 2017. 2). During the month of October 2016, most parts of Somalia recorded poor rainfall amounts, with most regions registering 25 to 50 percent of average. 3). Vegetation conditions worsened and drought conditions strengthened and continued to affect pasture, water, livestock and crops, with vegetation cover (NDVI) 60 to 70 percent of average in southern regions. 4). Prospects of Deyr cereal production are bleak, with crop failure expected in many areas. 5). Juba and Shabelle river levels are currently below normal; the resulting competition for irrigation water is likely to lead to deliberate breakage of embankments, adversely affecting downstream users

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Drought watch

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