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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 04 April 2023

The weekly outlook shows that most parts of the country are expected to receive less than 50 mm of cumulative rainfall during the forecast period (Map 1). The spread of the cumulative rainfall amounts are as follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm expected over isolated areas in the north-western and southern parts of the country. The areas in the northwestern part of the country are: northern Zeylac district, central Baki district and northwestern Hargeisa district. Areas in the southern parts of the country are: Belet Xaawo, Ceel Waaq districts, southwestern parts of Baardheere district, northern Jilib district and southern Buáale district, southeastern Afmadow district central parts of Kismayo and Badhaadhe districts. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several parts of Awdal, Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Gedo, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle and Hiraan regions. Rains of similar intensity are expected over central and northern Woqqoyi Galbeed, northern Togdheer region, northern border between Sanaag and Bari regions, central and western Galgaduud region, eastern Bakool region, southern Bay region, and the coastal strip of Mudug region. Dry conditions are expected in central parts of the country including most areas in Togdheer, Sool, Sannag, Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions. Similar conditions are expected over northern and southern parts of Galgaduud region, central areas of Hiraan region, western Bakool region, and northern Gedo region, central and northern Bay region. Moderate temperatures of between 20°C and 32°Care expected over most parts of Somalia. However, cold conditions with temperatures less than 20°C are expected over isolated areas in northern parts of the country particularly the southern Awdal-Woqooyi Galbeed regional border, northwestern Togdheer region, and isolated areas in northern Sanaag and Bari regions.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 11 April 2023

According to the weekly forecast, several areas in central and southern Somalia are expected to receive moderate rainfall of over 50 mm of cumulative rainfall during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts are as follows: Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected in some parts of southern Somalia including Gedo, Lower Juba, Upper Juba, Lower Shabelle and Bay regions. In the Gedo region, the areas include Ceel Waaq district, northern Baardheere, and the southern border between Garbahaarey and Luuq regions. In Middle Juba region, the areas include northern parts of Saakow district, central parts of Buáale district and the northern parts of Jilib district. Areas included in the Lower Juba region are southern and eastern parts of Afmadow district and central and northern parts of Kismayo district. Areas in western part of Diinsoor district and southern parts of Buur Hakaba in Bay region and western parts of Sablaale in Lower Shabelle region, and coastal parts of Hobyo and Xarardheere districts in Muduug region are also likely to observe rains of similar amounts. Very heavy rainfall of above 150 mm is likely in isolated areas in southern Somalia and particularly over central parts of Gedo region Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is expected over several areas in central and southern Somalia including; Gedo, Lower Juba, Upper Juba, Lower Shabelle and Bay regions, southern and eastern parts of Hiraan region, southern parts of Lower Shabelle region, and northern parts of Awdal region. Some areas in Bakool region and Galgaduud region, coastal areas in Muduug region, Sanaag region and northern parts of Bari region are also forecast to receive similar amounts of rainfall. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several parts of Bakool, Hiraan region, Middle Juba and Galgaduud, Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed regions. Similar rains are expected over central western parts of Sanaag region, northern parts of Togdheer region, northwestern parts of Sool region, and northwestern part of Bari region. Dry conditions are expected in several areas of the central and northern Somalia including non-coastal areas of Muduug, Nugaal, Bari and Sool regions. Similar dry conditions are forecast over several areas in central and eastern parts of Sanaag region, central and southern parts of Togdheer region, and some areas in the southwestern parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region. Moderate temperatures of between 20°C and 32°C are expected over most parts of Somalia. However, cold conditions with temperatures less than 20°C are expected over very isolated areas in northern Sanaag and Bari regions.

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Somalia Rainfall Outlook for the 2023 GU Season Issued: 17 Mar 2023

Somalia’s Gu (April-May-June) is the main wet season in the country, and is critical in supporting agricultural activities and replenishing water and pasture. The season begins as early as the second half of March, at the tail end of the Jilal Season, and the rains intensify in April with the onset progressing north eastwards almost mimicking the south-north progression of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) that follows the overhead sun. Gu rainfall cessation occurs in June in most parts of the country, with the north- eastern coastline receiving the least amount of rainfall during this season. According to the recently released Seasonal Climate Forecast issued by IGAD’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), there is a 50% likelihood that below normal rainfall (drier than normal conditions) will be observed over most parts of Somalia as is evidenced by the yellow coloration shown in Map 1. Over the northern parts of Middle Shabelle there is greater likelihood (60%) of observing such dry conditions. In the north eastern part of the country, southern Togdheer and Lower Juba there are equal probabilities of below normal, normal and above normal rains over most areas (denoted by white coloration). The above rainfall conditions will be accompanied by warmer than normal surface temperatures (55% likelihood) over much of the country, with increased chance of up to 70% over the northern areas. Drought analysis using SPI have shown moderate multi- season drought conditions in the southwestern Somalia (Gedo and Juba regions) and severe conditions over Sanaag region. Seasonal climate scientists have observed that the poor forecast 2023 Gu rains are comparable to the forecast conditions of the years 2017 and 2021. However, due to the poor predictability of the Gu rain season, the forecast is expected to have high spatial variability. Further, the rainfall forecasts categories vary over regions; 170 mm and 195 mm thresholds are applicable over Somalia. It is worth noting that this forecast is designed for a regional audience that addresses the rainfall totals summed over the three-month period from March to May 2023.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 22 March 2023

Based on climatology the fourth week of March marks the end of Jilal Season. However this year there has been an early transition into the Gu (April-May-June) long rains season in Somalia. Several parts of the country received moderate rains over the last week with fourteen stations receiving more than 1 mm of rain as is shown in Table 1. The heaviest rains were recorded in Gedo and Bay regions specifically Bardheere (86 mm), Wanle-Wayne (47.3 mm), Luuq (34 mm) and Dollow (23.1 mm). Other stations that recorded over 10 mm of rainfall include Belet Weyne (18 mm) in Hiran, Iskushuban (17 mm) in Bari, Buhoodle (14.7 mm) and Las Anod (10.5 mm) in Sool regions. Continued dry conditions were observed over Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Nugaal, Galgaduud, Bakool, Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba regions. Based on ICPAC’s rainfall forecast for the next seven days (Map 1), it indicates that most parts of the country will receive more than 10 mm of cumulative rainfall. The spread of the cumulative 7 day rainfall amounts are as follows: Light rainfall of between 10 mm and 50 mm are expected over Nugaal, Mudug, Sanaag, southern and eastern Galgaduud, southern parts of Middle Shabelle and Lower Shabelle northern parts of Middle Shabelle, most parts of Gedo and Middle Juba, northern and southeastern parts of Bari, most parts of Sool and central parts of Togdheer and the northern most parts of Woqooyi Galbeed and Awdal. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 150 mm are anticipated over most parts in Lower Juba, Bakool, Hiraan, Woqooyi Galbeed, southeastern Gedo, western parts of Galgaduud, southern Awdal, southern and northern parts of Togdheer and some areas in southwestern and north eastern Bari. Heavy rainfall of over 150 mm anticipated in isolated pockets in the northern Bakool, western Galgaduud, southern Awdal, southwestern and north eastern Bari regions. Moderate temperatures of between 20 °C and 32 °C are expected over most parts of Somalia. However, cold conditions with temperatures less than 20 °C are expected over isolated areas in northern parts of the country particularly the southern parts of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed, northwestern Togdheer, central areas in the northern Sanaag and Bari. The heavy rains received over the last few days on both sides of the Ethiopia-Somali border resulted into a sharp rise in river levels along Juba. In Dollow and Luuq stations, Gedo region, the river rose by over 2.5 m within 24 hours between 18th and 20th March. Dollow recorded 2.94 m increase, from 1.94 m on 18th March to 4.88m on 20th March, surpassing the moderate flood risk level. In Luuq the river level rose from 1.96 m to 4.5 m on 19th and 20th March respectively. The levels have slightly reduced in both stations (4.02 m in Dollow and 4.4 m in Luuq) over the last 24 hours. However, with the current forecast more water is expected from the Ethiopian catchment and within Somalia, posing a moderate risk of floods in the upper reaches of the river. Along Shabelle the river levels are still low, with no immediate risk of flooding. The heavy rains observed over Bardheere (86 mm) have been reported to lead to destruction of property and possible loss of life. Based on climatology, these rains represent a wetter than usual conditions. The observed and forecast wet conditions together with the cold conditions (temperatures less than 20 °C) expected over isolated areas in northern parts of the country particularly the southern parts of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed, northwestern Togdheer, central areas in the northern Sanaag and Bari are likely to lead to partial recharge of surface water sources and vegetation regeneration giving a glimmer of hope for human and livestock survival. However, high temperatures (about 32 °C) that are forecast to succeed the wet conditions may lead to rapid evaporation thereby leaving no soil water to support vegetation regeneration.

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Juba River Flood Advisory

Heavy rains received in Gedo region and other areas around the Ethiopian border over the last week resulted to a sharp rise in Juba river levels. Over the last 24 hours Bardheere station recorded heavy rainfall (92 mm) leading to significant flooding in the Bardheere town and surrounding areas. The river levels as reported this morning at Bardhere (9.00 m) and Dollow (5.14 m) surpass the high flood risk threshold for the two stations. These floods are reported to have caused significant destruction of property and farmlands. According to our sources, over the last four days, the floods in Bardheere have caused a loss of 13 lives. The risk of flooding along the entire reach of the Juba river remains high throughout this week, as the flood wave moves downstream. Therefore, communities residing along the Juba riverine areas must exercise extra caution as the water levels continue to rise. Along Shabelle river, levels have started rising gradually, but the risk of flooding remains low in the coming week. The rainfall forecast for the next three days indicates moderate to heavy rains over the Ethiopian highlands and within the Somalia-Ethiopia border. These rains will lead to sustained high river levels along the Juba and a rise in Shabelle river where the levels are currently low. In Bay and Lower Juba regions, isolated heavy rains of up to 150 mm are expected in the next three days and may result to flash floods.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 28 March 2023

Most parts of the country are expected to receive less than 50 mm of cumulative rainfall during the forecast period (Map 1). The spread of the cumulative rainfall amounts are as follows: Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several parts of Lower and Middle Juba, Gedo, Bay, Bakool, Lower and Middle Shabele, Sanaag, and Togdheer regions, southern and central parts of Hiraan region, central areas of Galgaduud region, and isolated areas in northern Bari region, central and western parts of Sool region. Moderate rains of between 50 mm and 100 mm is predicted over isolated areas in the north-western parts of the country. Such rains are expected in the southern parts of Awdal, central and southern parts of Woqooyi Galbeed, localized areas in western and northern parts of Sanaag region, western parts of Gedo region and southwestern parts of Lower Juba region. Heavy rains of between 100 mm and 150 mm are likely over Isolated pockets in Baki and Borama districts in Awdal region, and southern parts of Gebiley in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Dry conditions are expected in central parts of the country including most areas in Nugaal and Mudug regions, northern areas of Hiraan and Galgaduud regions, southern areas of Bari region and eastern areas of Sool region. Moderate temperatures of between 20 °C and 32 °C are expected over most parts of Somalia. However, cold conditions with temperatures less than 20 °C are expected over isolated areas in northern parts of the country particularly the parts of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sanaag and Bari regions.

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Status of River Breakages Along Juba and Shabelle Rivers - Issued 14 March 2023

FAO-SWALIM, the Somalia Water and Land Information Management, has completed an analysis and mapping project of river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle rivers. The project utilized Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to identify and classify the breakages into four categories: open, canal flooding, overflow, and closed with sandbags. The open breakages are those that are currently open and were observed on the latest VHR image available. The observations reported refer to the latest suitable VHR satellite image available, which is indicated in the online database. The map identified a total of 62 open breakage points, 36 on the Shabelle River and 26 on the Juba River, which require immediate attention. In addition, 15 overflow points and 39 canal flooding points were identified during this season. The Horn of Africa region has experienced five consecutive poor rainy seasons, resulting in severe hydrological drought conditions in Somalia and neighboring countries. The Juba and Shabelle rivers, which have their headwaters in the Ethiopian highlands, have remained near or below the long-term average since the beginning of 2023, negatively impacting agriculture production, domestic and livestock water use for the riverine communities. However, the low river levels provide an opportunity to repair the river breakages and weak embankments before the next rainy season. It is important to note that the methodology used in this analysis, is biased towards remote sensing interpretation, with limited "ground truthing" due to difficulties in accessing the areas. Open breakages may have been omitted or classified as potential in some cases where satellite images were unavailable or not clear due to heavy cloud cover or dense vegetation.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 01 November 2022

Most parts of south and central Somalia have received moderate rains with good distribution over the last one week. In Bay and Bakool regions heavy rains were recorded in Baidoa recorded 144mm, Dinsoor 103.5mm, Quansadheere 66.4mm, Huddur 45.5mm and El barde 41mm over the last one week. Other places in the region where good rains were reported over the last week are Bulo burti 62mm, Bur Hakabar 50mm, Dollow 44.6mm, and Mataban 40mm. Somaliland and Puntland also continued to receive rains over the last one week, but the amounts were reduced compared the rainfall amounts recorded in the previous two weeks. The ongoing rains have contributed to a reduction of water stress, and pasture generation. However, more rains with good intensity and distribution are required to bring to an end the current drought conditions as the amounts received are still inadequate to alleviate the condition. The rains need to be sustained for long period to sustain pasture and crop growth. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate to heavy rains in most parts of the Juba catchment within Somalia, the lower parts of Galgadud region, and along the Gulf of Aden Coast in Sanaag and Bari regions. The rest of the country is expected to receive scattered light to moderate rains. The Ethiopian highlands will receive heavy rains during the same forecast period. Juba river level has been rising steadily over the last one week, as a result of heavy rains in Ethiopia and within the Somalia. The levels reached high risk levels in Dollow and Bardhere, before starting to go down in the last 2 days. Shabelle river is also high, and above the short term mean. Given the rainfall forecast in the Ethiopian highlands and in Somalia, there is medium risk of flooding in both rivers, especially in sections with weak or open embankments.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 08 November 2022

Most parts of south and central Somalia received light to moderate rains over the last one week. Some of the stations that recorded good rainfall amounts in the past week include Bulo Burti 28mm, Balad 19mm, Bardheere 18mm, Luuq 13.5mm and Jowhar 9mm. Widespread rains were also received in Bay, Middle Juba and Lower Juba regions during the week. In Somaliland and Puntland there has been a reduction in rainfall amounts with most stations recording little or no rains. Most regions in Somaliland and the southern parts of the country have experienced pasture regrowth and replenishment of water catchments, and this has led to a reduction in water and pasture stress. However, more rains with good intensity and distribution are required to bring to an end the current drought conditions as the amounts received are still inadequate to alleviate the condition especially in sustaining pasture and crop growth. The central regions of Nugaal, Muudug, Galgaduud and southern parts of Bari region have not received any significant rains and the drought conditions are worsening by day. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate to heavy rains in the southern regions. The coastal areas of Somaliland and northern Puntland are also expected to receive moderate to heavy rains. Exceptional cumulative rains are foreseen in Awdal especially in areas bordering Djibouti, which may result to flash floods. The central regions and inland areas of Puntland will receive minimal rains during the forecast period. Ethiopian highlands will receive moderate rains during the week in focus. Given the rainfall forecast, the river levels in both Juba and Shebelle are expected to increase slightly towards the end of the week with no risk of flooding.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 15 November 2022

There was reduced rainfall activities across Somalia over the last one week. Few stations in Somaliland recorded moderate rains, including Las-Dawaco 83.5mm and Dhubato 35mm, while light rains were recorded in Dararweyne 14mm, Lughaye 14mm, Zaila 13mm and Xaji – Salah 12 mm. In Puntland Calulla station recorded 13.4mm. The rest of the country remained either dry or received light showers. As the Deyr season comes to the peak, more rains are required to bring to an end the current drought conditions across Somalia. The rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate rains across the central and southern regions of Somalia. Parts of Bay and Bakool regions will however receive heavy rains, of up to 100mm cumulatively, within the coming week. The northern parts of Bari and Sanaag regions will also receive heavy rains in the coming week. The rains will be more along the coast of Bari, where cumulatively 150—200mm of rains are expected within the next seven days. The risk of flash floods in these areas is high, resulting from the heavy rains. Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togheer, Sool and Nugal regions will be mainly dry over the forecast period. Scattered light showers may however be experienced in few places. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive light rains, while the lower parts, near the Somalia border, will receive moderate rains in the coming week. River levels along Juba and Shabelle continued to decrease over the last one week. Given the rainfall forecast, the levels in both rivers are expected to increase slightly within the coming week with no risk of flooding.

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