Juba River For more than a week now, run off from moderate to heavy rains have caused the water levels along the entire Juba River to overflow their riverbanks causing devastating floods which have led to damage to crop lands and road infrastructure rendering them impassable and cutting off access in to and out of towns and other human settlements. The rains over Bardheere have been particularly intense with up to 126 mm having been observed in the last two days. The 46-year old steel bridge at Bardheere was overtopped and eventually gave in to the floods and collapsed. The runoff from both ongoing and forecast moderate to heavy rains over the Juba River catchment will sustain the river overflows and flooding at Dollow and Luuq and worsen the flooding at Bardheere and downstream reaches. There is therefore SUSTAINED FLOODING along the entire Juba River with INCREASING MAGNITUDE at both Bardheere and downstream at Saakow and Bualle. The activated evacuation plans should therefore be sustained and along the entire stretch and upscaled at Bardheere and downstream. Shabelle River For about two weeks now, the water levels along the Shabelle River have been steadily increasing. On Saturday 11th Nov, arrival of the earlier projected floodwave from the Ethioipian Higlands led to a sharp rise in the water level at Beletweyne to bankful level (8.30 m). The subsequent riverbank overflow led to massive floods covering up top 90 % of the town only sparing the few elevated areas. The flow over the main bridge cut the town into two parts. Based on timely advisories from SWALIM, SoDMA/MoHADM and other partners, the population had been safely evacuated to designated higher grounds by the time the floods started. Subsequent voluminous inflows have led to further spread of the floodwaters as reported today. Floods have also been observed at Balcad as a result of river breakages. The river level at Bulo Burte is steadily rising, and now only 36 cm below the high flood risk level and 126 cm below bankful. At Jowhar the level is only 65 cm below moderate risk level. The runoff from the ongoing and forecast moderate rains over the Shabelle River catchment upstream in Ethiopia and near the Somalia border will sustain the current bankful water levels at Beletweyne. Additionally, voluminous water measuring up to 9 km can be identified on the current satellite images upstream of Beletweyne in Ethiopia. There is a high likelihood that the arrival of this flood wave will lead to further significant river level rise and flooding at Beletweyne in the coming days. The run off from the forecast very heavy rains over the Shabelle River catchment on the eastern parts of Bulo Burte in the coming week will add to the downstream flow of the flood wave currently at from Beletwyene leading to rise in river levels at Bulo Burte, Jalalaqsi and Jowhar to high flood risk levels then bankful levels. Flash floods are also expected in Bulo Burti and surrounding areas following the very heavy rainfall expected over the next 3 days. There is therefore ONGOING FLOODING WITH INCREASING MAGNITUDE at BeletWeyne and its environs and ONGOING FLOODING WITH MODERATE MAGNITUDE at Balcad and its environs and HIGH RISK OF FLOODING at Bulo Burte and its environs and PROJECTED HIGH RISK at Jowhar and its environs. The activated evacuation plans should therefore be sustained at Beletweyne town and the surrounding areas. The evacuation plans should be activated at Bulo Burte and surrounding areas. The evacuation plans should be placed on standby at Jowhar and surrounding areas.

Extremely heavy rainfall is expected over Gedo, Lower Juba, Hiran, and Togdheer regions; moderate to heavy rainfall is anticipated over several other parts except for Bari region and coastal areas of the country where light rains is expected. A three -days forecast shows that much of these rains are likely to be received between 1st and 3rd November 2023. The spatio-temperal variation of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) is described below: • Extremely heavy rainfall of between 150 mm and 200 mm is expected over several areas in Gedo region, Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, southern parts of Saakow district in Middle Juba region, Beletweyne and Bulo Burte districts in Hiraan region, southern parts of Togdheer region, and Las Anod. The rains particularly over Gedo region, northern parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, southern parts of Beletweyne district and northern parts of Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, and Buuhodle district and southern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region are likely to be very intense leading up more than 200 mm. Rains of comparable amounts is also forecast over the middle and upper catchments of both Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Ethiopian Highlands. • Moderate to heavy rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is forecast over most areas in Bakool, Bay, Saakow and Jilib districts in Middle Juba region, Cabudwaaq district in Galgaduud region, Galdogob district, eastern and southern parts of Gaalkayo district and northern parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region, and isolated areas in Lower Juba region. Towards the north, rainfall of similar amounts is also anticipated over several areas in Togdheer and Sool regions, Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region, Ceel Afweyn district and southern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region, Burtinle district in Nugaal region, and isolated areas in Bari region. • Light to rainfall of below 50 mm is expected over several areas in Lower Shabelle and Middle Shabelle regions, central parts of Lower Juba region, Bualle district in middle Juba region, and Jalalaqsi district in Hiraan region. Such rains are also expected over the central parts of the country including Galgaduud region, Xarardheere district and southern parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region, Eyl and Garowe districts in Nugaal region. In the north, rains of such amounts are expected over several areas in Bari region, Laasqoray district and eastern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region, Gebiley district and central parts of Berbera district in Woqooyi Galbeed, Baki and Lughaye districts in Awdal region. • Dry conditions are expected over the coastal areas in both Iskushuban and Caluula districts in Bari region and the southern parts of Borama district and western parts of Zeylac district in Awdal region.

Vey light rainfall expected over the Berbera district in the northeastern parts of the project area, with dry conditions prevailing in the other areas. Weather Review for the Period 14th to 20th November 2023 During the period under review, rainfall of at least 1 mm was observed in thirty-four (34) stations, as illustrated in Graph 1. This marks an increase from the previous week's thirteen (13) stations with recorded rainfall. Twenty stations (20) reported cumulative rainfall exceeding 30 mm. The specific stations, their respective rainfall totals and rainy days are as follows: Laas Dawaco (122 mm in 2 days), Bulohar (110 mm in 2 days), Gacan_libah (97 mm in 3 days), Malawle (75 mm in 2 days), Gargara (61 mm in 1 days), Baligubadle (59 mm in 2 days), Gerisa (58.5 mm in 2 days), Berbera (56 mm in 2 days), Hargeisa (55 mm in 2 days), Salaxley (53 mm in 2 days), Xeego (50 mm in 2 days), Garbodadar (47.5 mm in 1 days), Lughaye (46 mm in 3 days), Sayla (45 mm in 1 days), Dhubato (43.5 mm in 2 days), Cadaadley (35 mm in 1 days), Dararweyne (34.5 mm in 3 days), Geedeble (34 mm in 1 days), Zaila (34 mm in 2 days), and Taysa (33 mm in 2 days). Having been recorded on one of the days of the week under review, the rains over Bulohar (70 mm), Laas_Dawaco (68 mm), Gargara (61 mm) and Gacan_libah (56 mm) were the most intense. The best three-days rainfall distribution was achieved over Gacan_libah, (97 mm), Lughaye (46 mm) and Dararweyne (34.5 mm). Weather Forecast for the Period 22nd to 28th November 2023 Rainfall Forecast: The weather forecast indicates very light rainfall of between 2 and 5 mm over the northeastern parts of the project area. These areas include western parts of Berbera, Banmadar and Cabdi Geeddi in the eastern part of Baki district; Ceel Lay Heelay, Bildhaaley, Bodale and Daradawanley in the northern part of Hargeisa district. Dry conditions with chances of rainfall less than 2 mm will prevail over the rest of the project areas. Temperature Forecast: Milder temperature of 20 ℃ to 25 ℃ is expected over some areas in the south of Gebiley district and in the southwest of Hargeisa district. Comparatively higher temperature of between 30 ℃ and 35 ℃ is anticipated in Lughaye district and some areas in the northeastern parts of Baki district. Moderate temperatures of between 25 ℃ to 30 ℃ are expected to prevail over the rest of the project areas.

In the next week heavy rainfall is expected over parts of Gedo, Bay, and Galgaduud regions, and moderate to heavy rainfall over most other parts of the country. Dry conditions with chances of isolated light rainfall are however expected in Bari region. Much of the forecast rains over Galgaduud and Bay regions are likely to be received between 15th and 17th November 2023. The spatio-temperal variation of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) is described below: • Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected over the western areas of Gedo Specifically in Ceel Waaq, Belet Xaawo, isolated parts of Luuq, Dollow, and Garbahaarey. Likewise, Baydhaba in Bay, along with parts of Xuddur, Tayeeglow, and Waajid bordering Bay in the Bakool region, are expected to experience similar intense rainfall. In Galgaduud, comparable weather conditions are expected, particularly over Cabudwaaq and Cadaado. Additionally, isolated areas in Hiraan and Sanaag are also likely to encounter heavy rainfall during this period. The Ethiopian highlands is also expected to receive high to moderate rainfall over the forecast period • Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is forecast over extensive areas in Gedo, Bay, Bakool, Hiraan, Galgaduud, and Mudug regions. Similar conditions are also anticipated in the northwestern regions of the country, particularly over Lughaye and Baki in Awdal, the northern areas of Gebilley, Sheikh in Togdheer, extensive parts of Woqooyi Galbeed, as well as Ceel Afweyn and Ceerigavo in the Sanaag region. • Light rainfall of below 50 mm is expected over several areas in Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle regions, parts of Dinsor and Burhakabar in Bay region, Jalalaqsi in Hiraan region, Ceel Buur, Ceel Dheere and parts of Dhuusamarreeb in Galgaduud, extensive part of Mudug, Nuugal, Bari, Sool, Sanaag regions, Zeylac and Borama in Awdal region, Hargeisa and Southern parts of Gebilley in Woqooyi Galbeed, Burco, Buuhodle and most parts of Odweyne in Togheer, most parts of Bosasso, Qandala, Coastal parts of Callula, Isolated pasts of Iskushuban and Qardho in Bari region. • Dry conditions are expected over isolated areas in Sanaag, Taleex, Qardo, Iskushuban, Callula, extensive parts of Bandarbeyla, northern parts of Eyl and Isolated parts of Lower Juba.

Shabelle River In the last 24 hours, heavy rainfall has been received and recorded (21st October 2023) at Beletweyne (88.2 mm), Mataban (40.0 mm), Bulo Burte (51.0 mm), Mahaday Weyne (20.0 mm), Jalalaqsi (87.0 mm), Jowhar (18.0 mm) and Balcad (23.0 mm). Compared to yesterdays’ measurements, the levels have increased by 1.29 m at Beletweyne, and by 0.12 m at Bulo Burte, while it remained stable at Jowhar. These localized rains also led to flash floods in Beletweyne which affected population, assets, and livestock particularly at the bridge near the ex-livestock market and in Hawo Taako and Kooshin villages. The IDPs are reported to have been safely evacuated to Ceel Jaale. Light rainfall is predicted over the Shabelle catchment within the country in the next 24 hours increasing to moderate cumulative amounts in the coming seven (7) days. Although light rain is forecast over the Shabelle river basin in the Ethiopian highlands today, it is expected to increase to between moderate and heavy rains in the coming seven (7) days. The runoff from previous heavy and forecast light localized rains onto and from seasonal wadis within Hiraan region, together with moderate to heavy rains over the river basin in the Ethiopian highlands, will keep the water levels along Shabelle River rising in the coming seven (7) days. This is therefore an alert to trigger both riverine and flash floods anticipatory actions and to caution communities living at vulnerable areas in Hiraan to be vigilant as the flash flood water stagnates over the saturated surfaces in Beletwyne and the water levels along Shabelle River keep rising. Juba River In the last 24 hours, moderate rainfall has been received and recorded (21st October 2023) at Bardheere (15.0 mm) and Luuq (2.5 mm) with dry conditions over Dollow and Bualle. Compared to yesterdays’ measurements, the levels have increased by 0.5 m at Luuq, increased by 1.04 m at Bardheere, decreased by 0.24 m at Dollow and decreased by 0.17 m at Bualle. The flash floods due to previous localized rains at Luuq have subsided as the water run off to the seasonal wadis and into the Juba River. Light rainfall is predicted over the Juba catchment within the country in the next 24 hours increasing to moderate cumulative amounts in the coming seven (7) days. Although light rain is forecast over the Juba River basin in the Ethiopian highlands today, it is expected to increase to between moderate and heavy rains in the coming seven (7) days. The runoff from previous heavy and forecast light localized rains onto and from seasonal wadis within Gedo region, together with moderate to heavy rains over the river basin in the Ethiopian highlands, will keep the water levels along Juba River rising in the coming seven (7) days. This is therefore an alert to trigger both riverine and flash floods anticipatory actions and to caution communities living at vulnerable areas in Gedo particularly at Luuq and Bardheere to be vigilant as the flash flood water stagnates over the saturated surfaces in Luuq and the water levels along Juba River keep rising.

Moderate to heavy rains expected over inland parts of Central and North Eastern regions particularly around parts of Gedo, Bay, Bakool and Hiraan regions in South Somalia, parts of Mudug and Galgaduud regions in central Somalia and parts of Sool, Sanaag and Bari regions in Northern Somalia. Moderate rainfall of between 50 and 100 mm is forecast over eastern parts of Bakool region particularly Tayeeglow; northern parts of Bay region, and several areas in Hiraan region particularly Belet Weyne, Mahas, and Mataban (Map 1). Rainfall of similar amounts is also likely over Jariiban district in Mudug, Xasbahale district in Nugaal, and Laas Caanon, Xudun, and Taleex districts in Sool. The rains are likely to spread outwards and intensify over Bay, Hiraan, Mudug and Nugaal and prevail beyond the forecast period to cumulative amounts above 100 mm. Other places forecast to receive comparable amounts of rainfall include Garadag, Dhahar, and Buran in Sanaag region, Qardho and Dangoroyo in Bari region, Buuhodle, Balidhiig, and Warabeye in Togdheer region. Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is anticipated across several areas in Somalia. These include Burao, Beer, and Xaaji Saalax in Togheer region; Caynabo, Waridaad, and Yagori in Sool region; Erigavo and El Afweyne in Sanaag region; Ufayn, Ballidhig, and Bandar Beyla districts in Bari region; Garowe and Burtinle districts in Nugaal region; extensive parts of Mudug region; inland areas of Galgaduud region, particularly around Dhuusamarreb, Cadaado, and Cabudwaaq districts; Adan Yabaal and Jowhar in Middle Shabelle region; Wanla Weyne district in Lower Shabelle region; areas around Baidoa and Qansahdere in Bay region; areas around Luuq and Bardheere in Gedo region, as well as areas around Jamame, Kismaayo, and Badhaadhe districts in Lower Juba region. Dry conditions are likely over extensive areas in Awdal region, Woqooyi Galbeed region, western and northern parts of Togdheer region, as well as coastal and western parts of Sanaag region. Similar dry conditions are likely over extensive coastal and northwestern areas of Bari region, Galkayo district and the southern coastal parts of Mudug region, coastal parts of Galgaduud region, and coastal parts of both Lower and Middle Shabelle regions. Dry conditions are also anticipated over Banadir region, southern parts of Bay region, northern and western parts of Gedo region, as well as extensive areas of Lower and Middle Juba.

Significant fluctuations in water levels along the Juba River have been observed. The Juba River surpassed the high-risk thresholds by 10 cm at Luuq on 21st October before decreasing below moderate risk level as of today. Downstream at Bardheere Station, the water level rose from 8.00 m on 21st October to 9.00 m and crossing high-risk threshold (8.20 m) on 22nd October before receding back to 8.00 m today. The downstream flow of the flood wave has led to a 1.1 m rise in the water level at Bualle which currently poses no immediate threat of riverine flooding. Moderate to heavy rains (50 – 100 mm) are expected over the catchment of Juba River within Gedo region and near-border areas with Ethiopia between 23rd and 29th October. The rains over the upper catchment in Ethiopian Highlands may exceed 200 mm posing high risk of riverine flooding towards the end of the forecast period. There is a high risk of flash flooding due to potential localized heavy rains over western parts of Bakool, central parts of Gedo, and Saakow district in Middle Juba region. The water levels along the upper part of Shabelle River are on downward trend. On 21st October, the water level at Beletweyne (6.44 m) was only 6 cm below the moderate flood risk threshold. The levels have since dropped to 6.10 m today. The downstream flow of the flood wave has led to an increase in the water level at Bulo Burte from 4.95 m on 21st October to 5.28 m today. The water level at Jowhar station has also risen during the same time from 3.95 m to 4.28 m. These levels, at both stations, are still below riverine flood risk thresholds. Moderate rainfall (31.5 mm) led to flash floods that affected Badda Cas IDP camp interrupting livelihood activities. Moderate rainfall of about 50 mm is expected over Shabelle River catchment within Hiraan region and near-border areas with Ethiopia. Coupled with the heavy rains recorded one week ago, the heavy rains (more than 150 mm) forecast over the Shabelle River upper catchment in Ethiopian Highlands, are likely to pose high risk of riverine flooding at Beletweyne towards the end of October and beginning of November 2023.

Somalia grapples with the looming impacts of an impending El Niño, exacerbating the ongoing climate change challenges. Recurrent riverine and flash floods, particularly in urban centers are of significant concern. Urgent action is needed to prepare for and mitigate the forthcoming El Niño floods, aiming to safeguard lives and mitigate economic losses. Key to this strategy is proactive flood management, involving timely evacuations to higher ground. Identifying suitable elevated areas serves a dual purpose, ensuring safety and facilitating aid delivery. In this regard a rigorous GIS & RS methodology by SWALIM considered nine crucial factors, such as historical flood extent, elevation, slope, topographic wetness index, drainage density, strategic boreholes, settlements, land cover, and roads, to isolate higher grounds suitable for evacuation. The resulting maps show safe areas for evacuation in case of flooding, while exercising discretion considering factors like proximity to schools, healthcare facilities, pest prevalence and any other unforeseen factors

Moderate to heavy rains are expected over Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Gedo, Bakool and Hiraan regions. Given the general light rainfall activity in the next 7-days, much of the rains are likely to be observed between 28th and 31st October 2023. The spatio-temperal variation of the forecast rainfall is described below: Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is forecast over several areas in the central parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region and the northern parts of Owdweyne district in Togdheer region, central parts of Gedo region, Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, and Saakow district in Middle Juba region. Heavy localized rains over these areas are likely to exceed 150 mm with possible cumulative amounts of about 200 mm in Wogooyi Galbeed, northern parts of Owdweyne district in Togdheer region and Bulo Burte in Hiraan region. Very heavy rainfall of above 200 mm is likely over the upper catchments of both Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Ethiopian Highlands. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is expected over Baki district in Awdal region, southern parts, Sheikh and Berbera districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region, northern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region, Ceel Afwyene and Ceerigaabo districts in Sanaag region, and Bosasso district in Bari region. Moderate rains are also anticipated over several areas in both Gedo and Bakool regions, Saakow district in Middle Juba region, and Bur Hakaba district in Bay region. In the central parts of the country, rainfall of similar amounts is likely over Gaalkacyo in Mudug region, Cabuudwaaq in Galgaduud region, Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, and Cadale and Balcad districts in middle Shabelle region. Light rainfall of below 50 mm is likely over the rest of the country except for the following areas where dry conditions are expected to prevail: several areas in Bari, Lower Juba and Middle Shabelle regions, southern parts of Bay region, non-coastal parts of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region, non-coastal parts of Xarardheere district in Mudug region, Garowe district and coastal parts of Eyl district in Nugaal region, and Las Anod district. Temperature Forecast: Elevated temperatures between 35°C and 45°C are likely over Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, southern parts of Dinsor and Bur Hakaba districts in Bay region, Jowhar district in Middle Shabelle region, and Sheikh district in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Milder temperatures of between 20°C and 25°C are likely over the highlands in central parts of Sanaag region and northern parts of Bari regions. The rest of the country is expected to observe moderate temperatures between 25°C and 35°C.

Moderate to heavy rainfall of between 50 and 100 mm is anticipated in the northern regions of the country, especially in proximity to Gebiley, Hargeisa, and areas adjacent to the Ethiopian border in Woqooyi Galbeed. Part of Togheer region is expected to experience similar high amount of rainfall especially Sheikh, Odweyn and Buuhoodle districts. In Sanaag region the highest amount of rainfall within the forecast period is expected in Ceel Afweyn and Erigavo districts. Areas around Qardho and Qandala in Bari, as well as Garowe and Burtinle in Nugaal, should anticipate a comparable pattern. Rainfall of comparable amounts is also likely to be observed in many parts of Sool region with chances of heavier storms localized over Xudun, Taleex, and Buuhodle districts. Other parts of the country expected to receive moderate to heavy rainfall include Galkayo and Hobyo in Mudug, Waajid in Bakool, Diinsor in Bay, and Bualle in Middle Juba Region. It is important to point out that rainfall of similarly moderate to heavy amounts is forecast over the Ethiopian highlands. Within Somalia, the heaviest precipitation is projected to occur during the initial three days of the forecast period especially in the northern parts of the country. Light to moderate rainfall is anticipated in Ceel Waaq and Luuq districts in Gedo, Baydhaba in Bay, extensive areas of Bakool, parts of Hiraan particularly Jalalaqsi and Bulo Burti districts, Ceel Buur and Cabudwaaq in Galgaduud, and most parts of western Muduug. The rest of the country is likely to experience scattered light showers throughout the week as per the forecast.