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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 20-04-2017

The rainfall forecast for the next 24 hours indicates no significant rains in the country. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 26 April 2017 shows moderate to heavy rains Somaliland and western parts of Puntland. A few pockets of Bari and Nugaal will also see light rains during the forecast period. Other places that are expected to receive good rains include the southern and central regions bordering Ethiopia. Moderate to heavy rains are also foreseen in the Ethiopian highlands which may lead to increased river levels inside Somalia towards the end of the week. Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle and the coastal areas of Galgaduud and Mudug regions will remain dry.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 26-04-2017

The rainfall forecast for the next 24 hours indicates light to moderate rains parts of northern areas of the country especially in Togdheer, Sanag, Sool, Bari and Nugaal regions. Other parts of the country will remain dry within the next 24 hours. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the week which ends on 02 May 2017 shows moderate to heavy rains in most parts of the country including the Ethiopian highlands. Most of the rains are expected towards the end of the week. Given the forecast, cases of flash floods cannot be ruled out especially in the northern areas within the week. The river levels are also expected to rise given the forecast. Users are advised that this is a forecast and at times there may be discrepancies between forecast and actual amounts of rainfall received.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Status of Juba and Shabelle River Breakages - March 2017

The Gu 2017 (March/April to June) rainfall forecast points towards near-normal to below-normal rains within the Juba and Shabelle River basins. However, flooding along the two rivers may still occur, especially in areas with open river banks/weak river embankments, in the event of increased river flow. SWALIM has updated the status of the river breakages by mapping them using available Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM); as well as verifications based on field observations where feasible. All the observations reported refers to the latest suitable VHR satellite image available, which is indicated in the online database. Four types of breakages have been identified, namely; open, potential, closed with sandbags and closed. The open breakages are those that are still open as observed on the latest VHR image available, therefore a field verification is needed before planning any repair. The potential breakages represent points that have weak river embankments. The closed with sandbags points are defined here as those that been temporarily closed with sandbags making them still vulnerable for further breakages. The closed points are those that were previously open but have since been closed using heavy machinery, which prevents further flooding in the short to medium term. The attached maps show the open, potential and closed with sandbags points along the two rivers. In summary, eighteen (18) open points along the Shabelle and nineteen (19) along the Juba were identified. Several other points, which are either potential or temporarily closed with sandbags, have been identified. It is worth noting that the methodology relies heavily on satellite images with limited field verification. Open breakages might have been omitted in some cases where satellite images may not have been very clear (e.g. heavy cloud cover) or were not available at all. Maps of the status of river breakages, with detailed information, have been produced at large scale and can be obtained from SWALIM offices.

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Map

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Update on drought situation and river levels along Shabelle River

Most parts of Somalia are facing serious drought conditions with the larger part of the population facing severe to extreme drought conditions. Since the last half of 2016, the severity has been spreading spatially and the impacts getting worse with time. Some climate models are already predicting a poor rainy season in the coming season which may further aggravate the existing drought conditions. However, this forecast will be confirmed in the coming month during a regional Climate Outlook Forum. The months of January and February usually experience the lowest amounts of river flow along the Shabelle River. January 2017, has however seen significantly below normal levels along the river since the beginning of the month. Some parts of the river in the lower reaches have dried up. This has been caused by below normal rains experienced in the upper parts of the Shabelle basin during the previous season which in turn has led to reduced river flow and over utilization of the river water for various uses both in Ethiopia and inside Somalia.

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Drought watch

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 18-11-2016

The northern and central parts of Somalia are expected to remain dry in the coming three days while the southern parts and the Ethiopian highlands will be expected to receive light to moderate rains during the same period.

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Flood watch bulletin

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 23-11-2016

There will be reduced rainfall activities in most parts of Somalia in the coming three days with exception of the lower reaches of Juba and Shabelle regions where light rains are expected in the forecast period. Moderate to high rains are also foreseen within the Ethiopian highlands in the next three days.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 24-11-2016

A few pockets in the western parts of Somaliland and southern regions in Somalia will experience light rains while moderate to heavy rains are expected in the Ethiopian highlands in the coming three days. The rest of the country will remain dry in the same period.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 30-11-2016

In the next three days light to moderate rains will be received in southern and central parts of the country and the Ethiopian highlands. The north western regions will receive scattered rains while the north eastern parts will remain dry in the same period.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Saadaasha Roob da’a Soomaaliya 1-11-2016

Waxaa saddexda maalmood ee soo socota gudaha qaybaha dalka inta badan ka jiri doona hoos u dhac xoogan oo ah arrimaha roob da’a. Inta badan meelaha gudaha dalka waxay ahaan doonaan qalayl marka laga reebo xeebta koonfureed oo laga yaabo inay hesho roobab fudud.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 7-11-2016

The southern parts of the country and the upper catchments of the Juba and Shabelle Rivers at the Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive light to moderate rains in the coming three days. The northern parts of the country will remain dry in the same period.

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