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Saadaasha Roob da’a Soomaaliya 27-10-2016

Saddexda maalmood ee soo socota waxaa qaybo badan oo ka tirsan Soomaaliya ka jiri doona arrin roob yaraan marka laga reebo gobollada Puntland halkaas oo laga rajeynaayo roobab dhexdhexaad ah maalmaha dambe ee muddada la saadaaliyey. Waxaa kale oo saddexda maalmood ee soo fool leh laga saadaalinayaa xagga buuraleyda sare ee Itoobiya roobab dhexdhexaad ah.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Muuqaalka roobda’a Soomaaliya ee Deyrta 2016

Sida dhawaan lagu sheegay saadaal cimilo xilliyeed ku saabsan Geeska Afrikada Weyn ee soo saartay xarunta IGAD ee Saadaasha Cimilada iyo Xarunta dabaqaadda (ICPAC) ee taal gudaha Kampala, Uganda, roobabka Deyrta sanadka 2016 ee gudaha Soomaaliya ayaa waxaa la filayaa inay noqdaan kuwa dhexeeya wax ka hooseeya caadi ilaa caadi –iyadoo qiyaasta la filayo ay tahay 40% roobab ka hooseeya caadi iyo qiyaastii 35% roobab ku dhaw caadi gudaha dalka oo idil. Biyo-qabatinka sare ee webiyada Juba iyo Shabeelle gudaha Itoobiya ayaa sidoo kale waxaa la filayaa in ay ka jirisayso hoos udhac roobab inta lagu guda jiro xilliga Deyrta. Fadlan eeg lifaaqqa si aad u aragto tafaasiil dheeraad ah. Fadlan ogow in arrintani tahay saadaal la isla qaatay oo loogu talagaly goobjoogayaasha gobolka taasoo ka waaramaysa isugenta wadarta roobda’a, sanadka 2016, ee muddada saddexda bilood oo ka soo bilowda Oktoobar ilaa Disheembar. SWALIM iyo la-hawlwadaagta farsameed ee kale waxay joogto u cusuboonaysiin doonaan wararka saadaashan oo waxay kuurgali doonaan muddooyin waqtiga gaaban roobabku sida ay noqdaan xilliga Deyrta oo dhan waxaa ayna indin kula soo socodsiin doonaan wargeysyo caadi ah oo ay idiin soo gudbin doonaan.

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Rainfall Outlook

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Xaaladda Jajabka-Gebiyada Webi Juba iyo Shabeelle – Sabteembar2016

Saadaasha roob-da’a Deryta 2016 (Oktoobar ilaa Nofeembar) waxay tilmaamaysa mid ah xaalad roobab caadi-u dhaw iyo caadi- ka hooseeya gudaha dooxooyinkaWebi Juba iyo Shabeelle. Hase ahaate, waxaa laga yaabaa in weli ay fatahaad ka dhacdo jiidda labada webi, gaar ahaan meelaha leh gebiyo webi oo furan/gebiyo webi oo tag daran, marka ay dhacdo qulqul webi oo kordhay. SWALIM waxay casryeysay xaaladda jajabka-gebiyada webiga iyadoo khariidadeysay oo isticmaashay Masawir dayax-gacmeed aad iyo aad u bayaansan iyo Muuqal joog tirsiyeed (Digital Elevation Model (DEM)); iyo sidoo kale indha-indheyn goobta gegida meeshii ay suurtogal ah. Saddex nooc oo jajab ayaa la aqoonsaday, oo lagu kala magacaabay: furan, suurogal, iyo xiran. Jajabka furan waa kuwa weli furan inta lagu guda jiro bisha Sabteemabar 2016. Jajabka suurogal waxay ka dhigan tahay meelo gebiyada webigu taag daran yihiin ama la kulmeen jajab waqti dhaw oo la soo dhaafay iyo meel wax yar ama hawlqabad aan laga samaynin. Tan waxaa ka mid ah jajab la xirxiray iyadoo la isticmaalayo kiishash camuud ah. Jajabyada la xirxiray waa kuwo markii hore furnaa balse ka dib la xirxiray iyadoo la isticmaalayo qalab makiinado culus ah, taasoo ka hortagtay fatahaad kale oo muddo gaaban iyo mid dheer. Khariidadaha ku lifaaqan waxay muujinayaan jajabyada furan iyo suurogal ee jiidda labada webi. Marka la soo kobo, toddobo (7) meel oo ka furan jiidda Shabeelle iyo 63 jiidda Juba ayaa la aqoonsaday.Waxaa kale oo la aqoonsaday dhawr meelo kale oo in ay jajabaan suurogal tahay oo u baahan in la xoojiyo. Hase ahaatee, waxaa mudan in la eego in habraacu uu si culus ugu tiirsan yahay masawirro dayax-gacmeed oo ay xadadan tahay ka soo xaqiijinta goobta dhulka. Mararka qaar gebi-jajabyada furan meesha waa laga saari karaa haddii masawirrada dayax-gacmeedku aysan bayaansanayn (tusaale, ded daruur culus) amase aan sinaba loo heli karin. Kkariidadaha xaaladda gebi-jajabyada webiga oo macluumaad faahfaahsan leh, ayaa la soosaaray oo heer ballaaaran ah iyo nuqullo waraaqadag oo laga heli karaa xaafiisyada SWALIM. Macluumaadkaan waa sidoo kale laga heli karaa Habka macluumaadka SWALIM ee Halista Fatahaadda iyo Maareynta Jawaabta (http://systems.faoso.net/frrims/rivers/riverbreakages).

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Map

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Somalia Deyr 2016 Rainfall Outlook

According to the recently issued Seasonal Climate Forecast for the Greater Horn of Africa by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) in Kampala, Uganda, the 2016 Deyr rains in Somalia are expected to be below normal to near normal - with a 40% probability of experiencing below normal rains and a 35% probability of near normal rains in the entire country. The upper catchments of the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Ethiopia are also expected to record depressed rains during the season. Please see attached for more details. Please note that this is a consensus forecast designed for a regional audience that addresses the rainfall totals summed over the three-month period from October to December, 2016. SWALIM and other technical partners will keep updating this forecast and monitoring performance of the rains for shorter time periods and will update you throughout the Deyr season via regular bulletins.

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Rainfall Outlook

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Status of Juba and Shabelle River Breakages - Sep 2016

The Deyr 2016 (October to November) rainfall forecast points towards near-normal to below-normal rains within the Juba and Shabelle River basins. However, flooding along the two rivers may still occur, especially in areas with open river banks / weak river embankments, in the event of increased river flow. SWALIM has updated the status of the river breakages by mapping them using available Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM); as well as verifications based on field observations where feasible. Three types of breakages have been identified, namely; open, potential and closed. The open breakages are those that are still open during the month of September 2016. The potential breakages represent points that have weak river embankments or have experienced breakages in the recent past and where minimal or no interventions have taken place. This includes breakages closed using sand bags. The closed breakages are those that were previously open but have since been closed using heavy machinery, which prevents further flooding in the short to medium term. The attached maps show the open and potential river breakages along the two rivers. In summary, seven (7) open points along the Shabelle and 63 along the Juba have been identified. Several other points with potential of breaking have been identified and need to be strengthened. It is worth noting, however, that the methodology relies heavily on satellite images with limited field verification. Open breakages might have been omitted in some cases where satellite images may not have been very clear (e.g. heavy cloud cover) or were not available at all. Maps of the status of river breakages, with detailed information, have been produced at large scale and hard copies can be obtained from SWALIM offices. This information is also available on the SWALIM Flood Risk and Response Management Information System (http://systems.faoso.net/frrims/rivers/riverbreakages).

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Map

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Belet Weyne flood map - June 2016

The town of Belet Weyne and its environs experienced one of the biggest floods in recent history. The floods, which lasted over 10 days were caused by overbank spillage from Shabelle River following heavy rains experienced in the Ethiopian highlands over the past one month. The floods covered about 60% (591 ha) of the entire town, resulting to mass displacement. This map depicts the peak of the flood extent, as observed from 10 meters resolution Sentinel-2 satellite image of 25th May 2016

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Map

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Belet Weyne District Reported Floods observation and Sentinel-2 image analysis (25 May 2016)

This dataset was digitized directly from Sentinel-2 imagery of 25th May 2016 to show the areal extent of Belet Weyne flooding. Sentinel-2 image resolution of 10m was downloaded free of charge from European Space Agency (ESA)

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Daadadka Gobolka Shabeellaha Dhexe oo looga warbixiyay jeedaalinta iyo falanqaynta muuqaal sawirka

Xog ururin taan si toos ah ayaa looqoray iyadoo digital ah oo laga soo tafsiiray sawirka Landsat -8 iyo 12-kii May 2016 si loo muujiyo xadka bedka fatahaadda ay ka gaartey Jowhar. Fadlan la soco in laga yaabaa in aagga daadadku uusan sax ahayn sababta oo ah fasiraadda waxaa caqabadeeyey dedka daruurta.

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Map

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SWALIM Update Issue 11

We are pleased to share Issue 11 of our newsletter “SWALIM Update” for the period January 2016 – April 2016.

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Newsletter

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Somali Gu 2016 Rainfall Performance

The Gu 2016 season started off well in advance in some parts of the country during the third dekad of March and continued to spread spatially in the first and second dekads of April. Other parts especially in Puntland and southern regions had a late start of the season which also ended early. The distribution of the rains were normal to below normal with an exception of north western regions which saw above average rains compared to the long termmean for the period under review. Some places that recorded depressed rains include Sanaag, Bari, north of Sool, south of Mudug, Galgaduud, Bakool, Hiraan, Middle Juba, Lower Juba and Lower Shabekke. The poor rains which also had an early cessation raises a concern especially in Puntland where drought conditions have been present for a long time. With no more rainfall expected in the coming months, most of Puntland regions and the coastal areas of Mudug and Galgaduud regions remain under drought conditions. The north west parts of Somaliland recorded above average rains. Other areas that received good rains include south of Togdheer and Sool regions. Some parts of the south and central regions within Bay and Bakool regions also received good rains. The rains were well received by the communities especially in the northern parts which had a prolonged dry period. This came as a relief for many people who experienced drought conditions in parts of the country. The Ethiopian highlands experienced heavy rains that led to increased river flow inside Somalia leading to floods in some sections of Juba and Shabelle Rivers. In general the rains led to improved soil moisture conditions that were favourable for both crops and pasture growth. Enhanced rains also led to replenishment of water reservoirs. However, negative impacts were also felt such as floods that caused destruction of properties, infrastructure and loss of livestock. The floods affected about 100,000 people with 72,000 of them being displaced.

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Rainfall Performance

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Muchiri P.

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