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Somali Gu 2016 Rainfall Performance

The Gu 2016 season started off well in advance in some parts of the country during the third dekad of March and continued to spread spatially in the first and second dekads of April. Other parts especially in Puntland and southern regions had a late start of the season which also ended early. The distribution of the rains were normal to below normal with an exception of north western regions which saw above average rains compared to the long termmean for the period under review. Some places that recorded depressed rains include Sanaag, Bari, north of Sool, south of Mudug, Galgaduud, Bakool, Hiraan, Middle Juba, Lower Juba and Lower Shabekke. The poor rains which also had an early cessation raises a concern especially in Puntland where drought conditions have been present for a long time. With no more rainfall expected in the coming months, most of Puntland regions and the coastal areas of Mudug and Galgaduud regions remain under drought conditions. The north west parts of Somaliland recorded above average rains. Other areas that received good rains include south of Togdheer and Sool regions. Some parts of the south and central regions within Bay and Bakool regions also received good rains. The rains were well received by the communities especially in the northern parts which had a prolonged dry period. This came as a relief for many people who experienced drought conditions in parts of the country. The Ethiopian highlands experienced heavy rains that led to increased river flow inside Somalia leading to floods in some sections of Juba and Shabelle Rivers. In general the rains led to improved soil moisture conditions that were favourable for both crops and pasture growth. Enhanced rains also led to replenishment of water reservoirs. However, negative impacts were also felt such as floods that caused destruction of properties, infrastructure and loss of livestock. The floods affected about 100,000 people with 72,000 of them being displaced.

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Rainfall Performance

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Muchiri P.

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Middle Shabelle Region Floods Reported observation and Landsat-8 (12 May 2016) image analysis

This dataset was digitized directly from Landsat-8 imagery of 12th May 2016 to show the areal extent of Jowhar flooding. Please note that the flooded area might not be exact due to the cloud cover hindering the interpretation. Landsat-8 image resolution of 15m was downloaded free of charge from USGS Earth Explorer

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Map

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Sida uu noqday Roobka Gu 2016 gudaha Soomaaliya

Xilligii Gu'ga 2016 wuxuu si fiican uga bilawday goor hore qaybo ka mid ah dalka, gaar ahaan Soomaaliland, intii lagu jirey tobankii maalmood ee saddexaad ee bisha Maarso oo sii socday isagoo bed ahaan faafay intii lagu jirey tobanaadkii koowaad iyo labaad ee bisha Abriil. Qaybaha kale gaar ahaan gudaha Puntland iyo gobollada koonfureed wuxuu xilligu ka bilawday goor danbe kaas oo hadana dhamaaday goor hore.

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Rainfall Performance

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SWALIM Update Issue 11

We are pleased to share Issue 11 of our newsletter “SWALIM Update” for the period January 2016 – April 2016.

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Newsletter

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 30-05-2016

Light rains are expected in a few places within Somaliland as well as the coastal areas of southern regions. The rest of the country and the upper parts of Juba and Shabelle River basins in Ethiopia will remain dry during the forecast period. The river level in the upper parts of Shabelle at Belet Weyne has slightly decreased from the week-long bankful level, but still remain within the high risk level. Downstream the river levels are expected to continue rising for the next few days, posing a risk to flooding especially in middle and lower reaches with existing open and weak river banks.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 02-05-2016

Heavy rains within the Juba and Shabelle Basins have led to increased river levels along the two rivers. The forecast for the next three days calls for more rains in the basins. There is a high likelihood of flooding in Gedo, Middle and Lower Juba regions along the Juba River and in Middle and Lower regions of the Shabelle River.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 03-05-2016

Widespread rains are expected across Somalia in the next three days. The northern regions of the country are expected to receive moderate to high rains, while in the central and southern regions the forecast points towards light to moderate rains. The upper catchments of the Juba and Shabelle rivers are also expected to receive moderate to high rains within the same period. The river levels remain high in both Juba and Shabelle, with high risk of flooding along the Middle and Lower Shabelle; while in Middle and Lower Juba the risk of flooding is moderate.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Flood Watch Bulletin 04-05-2016

During the week that ended on 3rd May 2016, moderate to heavy rains were experienced in most areas of Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands. Mataban in Hiraan region recorded a total of 115mm in the week while Bur Hakaba in Bay region received a total of 92mm during the same period. Satellite rainfall estimates also indicates moderate to heavy rainfall amounts during the same period within the Juba and Shabelle basins. The rainfall forecast for the coming week indicates a possibility of moderate to heavy rains in two river basins both in Somalia and within the Ethiopian highlands. River levels have been increasing since mid April due to heavy rains received within the basins. Currently, the levels are above the normal at this time of the year at all monitoring stations along the two rivers. Given the rainfall forecast and the rising river levels there is a foreseen high risk of flooding in the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle River while moderate risk of flooding is foreseen along Juba during the forecast period.

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Flood watch bulletin

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Update on the Status of River Breakages Along Juba and Shabelle Rivers as April 2016

The 2016 Gu rainfall season has continued to spread widely in terms of time, space and quantity over the last one month. The Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia have experienced moderate to heavy rains since the beginning of the season. There has also been heavy rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands, which contributes about 90% of the river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia. These rains have subsequently led to increased river levels along the two rivers, with flooding being reported in a few areas. The Flood Risk and Response Management Information System (FRRMIS) on the SWALIM interactive web page is updated every morning with current River levels. On the FRRMIS site, you can see current levels compared to the long-term mean and also to the levels that indicate flood risk. Using recent satellite imageries and field reports SWALIM has updated the status of the river breakages information which had been issued in February 2016. Two open breakages (Bayaxaaw and Bardheere) which were previously marked as potential points have been identified in Middle Shabelle. The breakages are about 10m wide and pause an immediate threat to nearby villages and cropped land. The attached tables provide details of the open and potential river breakages along the two rivers.

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Generic source

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast 09-05-2016

Heavy rains have been reported in parts Somalia over the last two days. Consequently, river levels have gone up with cases of river flooding in Gedo, Hiraan and Middle Shabelle regions in the south. Flash floods were also reported in parts of Puntland following the heavy rains. The three days rainfall forecast calls for reduced rainfall activities in the country, however, some parts in Lower Juba and northern regions may experience moderate rains. The river levels remain high in both Juba and Shabelle, with high risk of flooding along the Shabelle; while in Middle and Lower Juba the risk of flooding is moderate.

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