Light Rainfall expected over the Central Parts of Hargeisa and Gebiley Districts, with Dry Conditions Beyond the Eastern and Northern Parts of Baki and Borama Districts Weather Review for the Period 1st and 7th November 2023 During the period under review, rainfall of at least 1 mm was recorded in Thirteen (13) stations (Graph 1), down from twenty (20) stations the previous week. The following eleven (11) stations, down from six (6) stations, observed cumulative rainfall equal to or greater than 30 mm: Caynabo (79 mm), Gumburaha (78 mm), Laas Dawaco (74 mm), Sheikh (67.5 mm), Yagori (66 mm), Balli Dhiig (60 mm), Salaxley (46 mm), Garadag (43 mm), Geerisa (40 mm), Bolohar (36 mm), and Lughaye (32 mm). The best temporal distribution of rainfall was realized at Caynabo (79 mm) where three rainy days were recorded. The most intense rains were those received in a single day over Yagori (66 mm), Geerisa (40 mm), Bolohar (36 mm), Lughaye (32 mm), Erigavo (26.5 mm), and Burao (17 mm). Weather Forecast for the Period 10th to 16th November 2023 Rainfall Forecast Light rainfall of between 30 mm and 40 mm is expected over the western parts of Hargeisa district and central parts of Gebiley district. Light rainfall of between 10 mm and 30 mm is likely over Baki district, eastern parts of Hargeisa district, southern and northern parts of Gebiley district and southern parts of Borama. Dry conditions with chances of light rainfall of below 10 mm are likely to prevail over the eastern parts of the project area. Temperature Forecast Milder temperatures of between 20 ℃ and 25 ℃ are likely over Borama and Gebiley districts, southern parts of Baki district, and most parts of Hargeisa district except over the northern where relatively higher temperatures 25℃ and 30 ℃. will prevail. High temperatures of between 30 ℃ and 35 ℃ are also likely over Lughaye and northern parts of Baki districts.

According to the coming week’s weather forecast, substantial rainfall is expected over Middle Shabelle region and the coastal areas of Galgaduud region. Additionally, the forecast indicates a range from moderate to heavy rainfall across Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Gedo, Lower Shabelle, and Bay regions. Dry conditions are anticipated throughout the rest of the country, with isolated chances of light rainfall over Bakool, Bari, Sanaag, and Woqooyi Galbeed regions. For the spatial and temporal distribution of the forecasted rainfall, refer to Map 1. Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected over coastal areas of Cadale, Balcad and Adan Yabaal districts in Middle Shabelle region. Similarly heavy rainfall is likely over Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is forecast over inland parts of Cadale, Balcad and Adan Yabaal districts in Middle Shabelle region and Kismayo district in Lower Juba region. Light rainfall of below 50 mm is expected over Waajid district in Bakool, several areas in Lower Juba region, Middle Juba, Gedo, Bay, and Lower Shabelle regions. Similar conditions are likely in Caluula and Iskushuban districts in Bari region, and coastal parts of both Laasqoray and Berbera districts. Dry conditions are expected over areas around Saakow district in Middle Juba, Garbahaarey and Luuq districts in Gedo region, scattered areas of Bay region, extensive parts of Bakool, Hiraan, Galgaduud regions. Similar dry weather patterns are also expected in extensive parts of the entire northern regions of the country. Temperature Forecast: The current forecast indicates the likelihood of high temperatures ranging from 35°C to 45°C over extensive parts of the south, central and northeastern parts of the country. Milder temperatures ranging between 20°C and 25°C are anticipated over Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer and Sanaag regions and Inland parts of Bari region.

Juba River For more than a week now, run off from moderate to heavy rains have caused the water levels along the entire Juba River to overflow their riverbanks causing devastating floods which have led to damage to crop lands and road infrastructure rendering them impassable and cutting off access in to and out of towns and other human settlements. The rains over Bardheere have been particularly intense with up to 126 mm having been observed in the last two days. The 46-year old steel bridge at Bardheere was overtopped and eventually gave in to the floods and collapsed. The runoff from both ongoing and forecast moderate to heavy rains over the Juba River catchment will sustain the river overflows and flooding at Dollow and Luuq and worsen the flooding at Bardheere and downstream reaches. There is therefore SUSTAINED FLOODING along the entire Juba River with INCREASING MAGNITUDE at both Bardheere and downstream at Saakow and Bualle. The activated evacuation plans should therefore be sustained and along the entire stretch and upscaled at Bardheere and downstream. Shabelle River For about two weeks now, the water levels along the Shabelle River have been steadily increasing. On Saturday 11th Nov, arrival of the earlier projected floodwave from the Ethioipian Higlands led to a sharp rise in the water level at Beletweyne to bankful level (8.30 m). The subsequent riverbank overflow led to massive floods covering up top 90 % of the town only sparing the few elevated areas. The flow over the main bridge cut the town into two parts. Based on timely advisories from SWALIM, SoDMA/MoHADM and other partners, the population had been safely evacuated to designated higher grounds by the time the floods started. Subsequent voluminous inflows have led to further spread of the floodwaters as reported today. Floods have also been observed at Balcad as a result of river breakages. The river level at Bulo Burte is steadily rising, and now only 36 cm below the high flood risk level and 126 cm below bankful. At Jowhar the level is only 65 cm below moderate risk level. The runoff from the ongoing and forecast moderate rains over the Shabelle River catchment upstream in Ethiopia and near the Somalia border will sustain the current bankful water levels at Beletweyne. Additionally, voluminous water measuring up to 9 km can be identified on the current satellite images upstream of Beletweyne in Ethiopia. There is a high likelihood that the arrival of this flood wave will lead to further significant river level rise and flooding at Beletweyne in the coming days. The run off from the forecast very heavy rains over the Shabelle River catchment on the eastern parts of Bulo Burte in the coming week will add to the downstream flow of the flood wave currently at from Beletwyene leading to rise in river levels at Bulo Burte, Jalalaqsi and Jowhar to high flood risk levels then bankful levels. Flash floods are also expected in Bulo Burti and surrounding areas following the very heavy rainfall expected over the next 3 days. There is therefore ONGOING FLOODING WITH INCREASING MAGNITUDE at BeletWeyne and its environs and ONGOING FLOODING WITH MODERATE MAGNITUDE at Balcad and its environs and HIGH RISK OF FLOODING at Bulo Burte and its environs and PROJECTED HIGH RISK at Jowhar and its environs. The activated evacuation plans should therefore be sustained at Beletweyne town and the surrounding areas. The evacuation plans should be activated at Bulo Burte and surrounding areas. The evacuation plans should be placed on standby at Jowhar and surrounding areas.

Extremely heavy rainfall is expected over Gedo, Lower Juba, Hiran, and Togdheer regions; moderate to heavy rainfall is anticipated over several other parts except for Bari region and coastal areas of the country where light rains is expected. A three -days forecast shows that much of these rains are likely to be received between 1st and 3rd November 2023. The spatio-temperal variation of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) is described below: • Extremely heavy rainfall of between 150 mm and 200 mm is expected over several areas in Gedo region, Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, southern parts of Saakow district in Middle Juba region, Beletweyne and Bulo Burte districts in Hiraan region, southern parts of Togdheer region, and Las Anod. The rains particularly over Gedo region, northern parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, southern parts of Beletweyne district and northern parts of Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, and Buuhodle district and southern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region are likely to be very intense leading up more than 200 mm. Rains of comparable amounts is also forecast over the middle and upper catchments of both Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Ethiopian Highlands. • Moderate to heavy rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is forecast over most areas in Bakool, Bay, Saakow and Jilib districts in Middle Juba region, Cabudwaaq district in Galgaduud region, Galdogob district, eastern and southern parts of Gaalkayo district and northern parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region, and isolated areas in Lower Juba region. Towards the north, rainfall of similar amounts is also anticipated over several areas in Togdheer and Sool regions, Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region, Ceel Afweyn district and southern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region, Burtinle district in Nugaal region, and isolated areas in Bari region. • Light to rainfall of below 50 mm is expected over several areas in Lower Shabelle and Middle Shabelle regions, central parts of Lower Juba region, Bualle district in middle Juba region, and Jalalaqsi district in Hiraan region. Such rains are also expected over the central parts of the country including Galgaduud region, Xarardheere district and southern parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region, Eyl and Garowe districts in Nugaal region. In the north, rains of such amounts are expected over several areas in Bari region, Laasqoray district and eastern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region, Gebiley district and central parts of Berbera district in Woqooyi Galbeed, Baki and Lughaye districts in Awdal region. • Dry conditions are expected over the coastal areas in both Iskushuban and Caluula districts in Bari region and the southern parts of Borama district and western parts of Zeylac district in Awdal region.

Moderate Risk of Flooding Along Juba River Particularly at Luuq and Bardheere Heavy rains received over Luuq (80.5 mm), and moderate rains (26.2 mm) observed over Dollow on 20th October 2023, coupled with moderate rains across the Ethiopian border have resulted to a sharp rise in river level at Luuq from 3.84 m on 18th to 5.6 m and at Dollow from 4.26 m on 19th to 4.78 m today. Added to previous light rains (14.1 mm) observed on 19th October at Luuq, moderate flood risk levels have been surpassed by 0.22 m and 0.1 m at Dollow and and Luuq, respectively. These localized rains also led to flashfloods affecting IDP camp at Luuq. Moderate rains received over Beletweyne (38.5 mm) on 20th October 2023, and possibly more intense rains over the surrounding areas, coupled with moderate rains across the Ethiopian border have led to a noticeable rise in river level at Beletweyne from 4.95 m on 19th to 5.15 m today (20th October 2023). The rainfall forecast for the next three days indicates moderate to heavy rain (50 – 150 mm) within the Somali-Ethiopia border particularly over upper parts of Gedo region, central parts of Bakool region and many parts of Hiraan region. Although only light rains (4 mm) have been observed at Bardheere today (20th October), the forecast moderate rains in the 24 hours and coming days over upper parts of Gedo region, is likely to lead to further rise in the river levels with moderate risk of flooding along the entire Juba River stretch with the flood wave expected at Bardhere within 2 days. This is therefore an alert to trigger both riverine and flash floods anticipatory actions and to caution communities living along the Juba riverine areas particularly Luuq and Bardheere districts to be vigilant and heed to anticipatory measures as the river levels keep rising. Although the risk of flooding along Shabelle River remains low today, the forecast moderate to heavy rains over Hiraan will lead to increase in river levels. If the heavy rains over Hiraan materialize, it may result in incidences of flash floods today and whose resultant run off and flood wave is expected to flow downstream towards Bulo Burte Burte and Jalalaqsi in the coming days. Additionally, the large volumes of water that was sighted at Limey district in Ethiopia which forms part of the upper catchment of Shabelle river, is likely to lead to a rise in water level at Beletweyne in two to three weeks.

Somalia grapples with the looming impacts of an impending El Niño, exacerbating the ongoing climate change challenges. Recurrent riverine and flash floods, particularly in urban centers are of significant concern. Urgent action is needed to prepare for and mitigate the forthcoming El Niño floods, aiming to safeguard lives and mitigate economic losses. Key to this strategy is proactive flood management, involving timely evacuations to higher ground. Identifying suitable elevated areas serves a dual purpose, ensuring safety and facilitating aid delivery. In this regard a rigorous GIS & RS methodology by SWALIM considered nine crucial factors, such as historical flood extent, elevation, slope, topographic wetness index, drainage density, strategic boreholes, settlements, land cover, and roads, to isolate higher grounds suitable for evacuation. The resulting maps show safe areas for evacuation in case of flooding, while exercising discretion considering factors like proximity to schools, healthcare facilities, pest prevalence and any other unforeseen factors.

Shabelle River In the last 24 hours, heavy rainfall has been received and recorded (21st October 2023) at Beletweyne (88.2 mm), Mataban (40.0 mm), Bulo Burte (51.0 mm), Mahaday Weyne (20.0 mm), Jalalaqsi (87.0 mm), Jowhar (18.0 mm) and Balcad (23.0 mm). Compared to yesterdays’ measurements, the levels have increased by 1.29 m at Beletweyne, and by 0.12 m at Bulo Burte, while it remained stable at Jowhar. These localized rains also led to flash floods in Beletweyne which affected population, assets, and livestock particularly at the bridge near the ex-livestock market and in Hawo Taako and Kooshin villages. The IDPs are reported to have been safely evacuated to Ceel Jaale. Light rainfall is predicted over the Shabelle catchment within the country in the next 24 hours increasing to moderate cumulative amounts in the coming seven (7) days. Although light rain is forecast over the Shabelle river basin in the Ethiopian highlands today, it is expected to increase to between moderate and heavy rains in the coming seven (7) days. The runoff from previous heavy and forecast light localized rains onto and from seasonal wadis within Hiraan region, together with moderate to heavy rains over the river basin in the Ethiopian highlands, will keep the water levels along Shabelle River rising in the coming seven (7) days. This is therefore an alert to trigger both riverine and flash floods anticipatory actions and to caution communities living at vulnerable areas in Hiraan to be vigilant as the flash flood water stagnates over the saturated surfaces in Beletwyne and the water levels along Shabelle River keep rising. Juba River In the last 24 hours, moderate rainfall has been received and recorded (21st October 2023) at Bardheere (15.0 mm) and Luuq (2.5 mm) with dry conditions over Dollow and Bualle. Compared to yesterdays’ measurements, the levels have increased by 0.5 m at Luuq, increased by 1.04 m at Bardheere, decreased by 0.24 m at Dollow and decreased by 0.17 m at Bualle. The flash floods due to previous localized rains at Luuq have subsided as the water run off to the seasonal wadis and into the Juba River. Light rainfall is predicted over the Juba catchment within the country in the next 24 hours increasing to moderate cumulative amounts in the coming seven (7) days. Although light rain is forecast over the Juba River basin in the Ethiopian highlands today, it is expected to increase to between moderate and heavy rains in the coming seven (7) days. The runoff from previous heavy and forecast light localized rains onto and from seasonal wadis within Gedo region, together with moderate to heavy rains over the river basin in the Ethiopian highlands, will keep the water levels along Juba River rising in the coming seven (7) days. This is therefore an alert to trigger both riverine and flash floods anticipatory actions and to caution communities living at vulnerable areas in Gedo particularly at Luuq and Bardheere to be vigilant as the flash flood water stagnates over the saturated surfaces in Luuq and the water levels along Juba River keep rising.

Moderate to heavy rains expected over inland parts of Central and North Eastern regions particularly around parts of Gedo, Bay, Bakool and Hiraan regions in South Somalia, parts of Mudug and Galgaduud regions in central Somalia and parts of Sool, Sanaag and Bari regions in Northern Somalia. Moderate rainfall of between 50 and 100 mm is forecast over eastern parts of Bakool region particularly Tayeeglow; northern parts of Bay region, and several areas in Hiraan region particularly Belet Weyne, Mahas, and Mataban (Map 1). Rainfall of similar amounts is also likely over Jariiban district in Mudug, Xasbahale district in Nugaal, and Laas Caanon, Xudun, and Taleex districts in Sool. The rains are likely to spread outwards and intensify over Bay, Hiraan, Mudug and Nugaal and prevail beyond the forecast period to cumulative amounts above 100 mm. Other places forecast to receive comparable amounts of rainfall include Garadag, Dhahar, and Buran in Sanaag region, Qardho and Dangoroyo in Bari region, Buuhodle, Balidhiig, and Warabeye in Togdheer region. Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is anticipated across several areas in Somalia. These include Burao, Beer, and Xaaji Saalax in Togheer region; Caynabo, Waridaad, and Yagori in Sool region; Erigavo and El Afweyne in Sanaag region; Ufayn, Ballidhig, and Bandar Beyla districts in Bari region; Garowe and Burtinle districts in Nugaal region; extensive parts of Mudug region; inland areas of Galgaduud region, particularly around Dhuusamarreb, Cadaado, and Cabudwaaq districts; Adan Yabaal and Jowhar in Middle Shabelle region; Wanla Weyne district in Lower Shabelle region; areas around Baidoa and Qansahdere in Bay region; areas around Luuq and Bardheere in Gedo region, as well as areas around Jamame, Kismaayo, and Badhaadhe districts in Lower Juba region. Dry conditions are likely over extensive areas in Awdal region, Woqooyi Galbeed region, western and northern parts of Togdheer region, as well as coastal and western parts of Sanaag region. Similar dry conditions are likely over extensive coastal and northwestern areas of Bari region, Galkayo district and the southern coastal parts of Mudug region, coastal parts of Galgaduud region, and coastal parts of both Lower and Middle Shabelle regions. Dry conditions are also anticipated over Banadir region, southern parts of Bay region, northern and western parts of Gedo region, as well as extensive areas of Lower and Middle Juba.

Significant fluctuations in water levels along the Juba River have been observed. The Juba River surpassed the high-risk thresholds by 10 cm at Luuq on 21st October before decreasing below moderate risk level as of today. Downstream at Bardheere Station, the water level rose from 8.00 m on 21st October to 9.00 m and crossing high-risk threshold (8.20 m) on 22nd October before receding back to 8.00 m today. The downstream flow of the flood wave has led to a 1.1 m rise in the water level at Bualle which currently poses no immediate threat of riverine flooding. Moderate to heavy rains (50 – 100 mm) are expected over the catchment of Juba River within Gedo region and near-border areas with Ethiopia between 23rd and 29th October. The rains over the upper catchment in Ethiopian Highlands may exceed 200 mm posing high risk of riverine flooding towards the end of the forecast period. There is a high risk of flash flooding due to potential localized heavy rains over western parts of Bakool, central parts of Gedo, and Saakow district in Middle Juba region. The water levels along the upper part of Shabelle River are on downward trend. On 21st October, the water level at Beletweyne (6.44 m) was only 6 cm below the moderate flood risk threshold. The levels have since dropped to 6.10 m today. The downstream flow of the flood wave has led to an increase in the water level at Bulo Burte from 4.95 m on 21st October to 5.28 m today. The water level at Jowhar station has also risen during the same time from 3.95 m to 4.28 m. These levels, at both stations, are still below riverine flood risk thresholds. Moderate rainfall (31.5 mm) led to flash floods that affected Badda Cas IDP camp interrupting livelihood activities. Moderate rainfall of about 50 mm is expected over Shabelle River catchment within Hiraan region and near-border areas with Ethiopia. Coupled with the heavy rains recorded one week ago, the heavy rains (more than 150 mm) forecast over the Shabelle River upper catchment in Ethiopian Highlands, are likely to pose high risk of riverine flooding at Beletweyne towards the end of October and beginning of November 2023.

Somalia grapples with the looming impacts of an impending El Niño, exacerbating the ongoing climate change challenges. Recurrent riverine and flash floods, particularly in urban centers are of significant concern. Urgent action is needed to prepare for and mitigate the forthcoming El Niño floods, aiming to safeguard lives and mitigate economic losses. Key to this strategy is proactive flood management, involving timely evacuations to higher ground. Identifying suitable elevated areas serves a dual purpose, ensuring safety and facilitating aid delivery. In this regard a rigorous GIS & RS methodology by SWALIM considered nine crucial factors, such as historical flood extent, elevation, slope, topographic wetness index, drainage density, strategic boreholes, settlements, land cover, and roads, to isolate higher grounds suitable for evacuation. The resulting maps show safe areas for evacuation in case of flooding, while exercising discretion considering factors like proximity to schools, healthcare facilities, pest prevalence and any other unforeseen factors