Light rainfall of below 50 mm is forecast over some areas in the southern parts of the country in the coming week. These light rains are expected in the earlier part of the forecast week (13th – 15th December) over Badhaadhe, Kismayo and Jamaame districts in Lower Juba region, Ceel Waaq and Belet Xaawo districts in the Gedo region. Other areas expected to receive the light rains are the coastal areas of Jilib district in Middle Juba region, Marca and Kurtunwaarey districts, areas in the Sablaale, Qoryooley, and Barawe districts in Lower Shabelle region, and Baidoa in Bay region. Although moderate in cumulative amounts, the rains over the Lower Juba region are likely to be spread out across the entire week and will therefore be less intense. Moderate rains above 50 mm may be observed in some areas along the southern coastal strip whenever the monsoonal winds blowing parallel to the coastline are accentuated by any elevated East-West oriented terrain. As these monsoonal winds blow southwards across the Gulf, there are also chances of trace amounts of rains over the northern coastal strip including Caluula and Qandala districts in Bari region and Berbera districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Dry conditions – The rest of the country is expected to remain dry during the coming week. The model predictions of minimal rainfall amount across the country and the Ethiopian highlands in the month of December signals the end of the Deyr rainy season for Somalia.

In the next week heavy rainfall is expected over parts of Gedo, Bay, and Galgaduud regions, and moderate to heavy rainfall over most other parts of the country. Dry conditions with chances of isolated light rainfall are however expected in Bari region. Much of the forecast rains over Galgaduud and Bay regions are likely to be received between 15th and 17th November 2023. The spatio-temperal variation of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) is described below: • Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected over the western areas of Gedo Specifically in Ceel Waaq, Belet Xaawo, isolated parts of Luuq, Dollow, and Garbahaarey. Likewise, Baydhaba in Bay, along with parts of Xuddur, Tayeeglow, and Waajid bordering Bay in the Bakool region, are expected to experience similar intense rainfall. In Galgaduud, comparable weather conditions are expected, particularly over Cabudwaaq and Cadaado. Additionally, isolated areas in Hiraan and Sanaag are also likely to encounter heavy rainfall during this period. The Ethiopian highlands is also expected to receive high to moderate rainfall over the forecast period • Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is forecast over extensive areas in Gedo, Bay, Bakool, Hiraan, Galgaduud, and Mudug regions. Similar conditions are also anticipated in the northwestern regions of the country, particularly over Lughaye and Baki in Awdal, the northern areas of Gebilley, Sheikh in Togdheer, extensive parts of Woqooyi Galbeed, as well as Ceel Afweyn and Ceerigavo in the Sanaag region. • Light rainfall of below 50 mm is expected over several areas in Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle regions, parts of Dinsor and Burhakabar in Bay region, Jalalaqsi in Hiraan region, Ceel Buur, Ceel Dheere and parts of Dhuusamarreeb in Galgaduud, extensive part of Mudug, Nuugal, Bari, Sool, Sanaag regions, Zeylac and Borama in Awdal region, Hargeisa and Southern parts of Gebilley in Woqooyi Galbeed, Burco, Buuhodle and most parts of Odweyne in Togheer, most parts of Bosasso, Qandala, Coastal parts of Callula, Isolated pasts of Iskushuban and Qardho in Bari region. • Dry conditions are expected over isolated areas in Sanaag, Taleex, Qardo, Iskushuban, Callula, extensive parts of Bandarbeyla, northern parts of Eyl and Isolated parts of Lower Juba.

Juba River Catchment Over the past three days, there has been a notable increase in both the amount and intensity of rainfall in the Gedo region and the Ethiopian highlands. The current water levels along the Juba River are now only 8 cm below bankful level at Dollow, 14 cm at Luuq, and under 40 cm at Bardheere. The ongoing heavy rainfall, coupled with the forecasted moderate rains in the next 24 hours, with an accumulation of approximately 150 mm over the next three days across Gedo, are expected to cause the river level to reach bankful height. This presents a high risk of riverine flooding along the entire stretch of the Juba River. Additionally, there is a high risk of flash flooding in the Gedo region, particularly in the Garbahaarey district within the next 24 hours. Residents in Deeday, Buulo Oomin, Tuutees, and Dhayba should take all necessary precautions to ensure their safety. Necessary anticipatory action should be taken. Shabelle River Catchment There has been a slight increase in water levels along the Shabelle River. The water levels are currently just 8.0 cm, 50.0 cm and 70.0 cm below the moderate flood risk levels at Beletweyne, Bulo Burte and Jowhar, respectively. The runoff from forecast moderate rains within the catchment over the next three days in HirShabelle, is likely to lead to a gradual rise in water levels with moderate risk of flooding along the Shabelle River. There are also reports of high flood wave approaching the Somali-Ethiopia border which is projected to lead to a significant river level rise in 3 to 4 days. Flash Floods Within the next 24 hours, heavy rains are anticipated over most areas of Bakool and Bay regions. As a result, there is a high risk of flash flooding in low-lying and vulnerable areas, particularly in Buur Hakabar, Diinsoor, Qansax Dheere, and Baydhaba districts in Bay, as well as Waajid and Ceel Barde districts in Bakool. Most parts of Middle Juba, including areas around Jilib, are expected to receive rainfall exceeding 100 mm, with coastal areas of Jilib experiencing particularly high amounts of over 200 mm, posing a significant risk of flash floods especially around Jiirta and Kuunyo-Burrow. Similarly, areas along the border of Hobyo and Jariiban districts in Mudug are likely to receive rainfall exceeding 200 mm, potentially leading to flash floods over Xingaras, Dhinooda, Ceel Dhahanaan, and Ceel Bacduur. Residents around the mentioned areas should take precautionary measures to ensure their safety.

Light rainfall of below 50 mm is expected over the coastal parts of Adan Yabaal, Cadale, and Balcad districts in Middle Shabelle region, as well as Banadir, coastal parts of Jilib district in Middle Juba region, Jamame, Kismayo, and Badhaadhe districts, and the border areas between Afmadow and Kismayo districts in Lower Juba region. Similarly light rains are also anticipated over areas bordering Bur Hakaba district in Bay region and Qoryooley district in Lower Shabelle region. Dry conditions are expected to prevail over the rest of the country in the upcoming week. Similar dry conditions are also expected over the Ethiopian Highlands. Temperature Forecast The current forecast indicates the likelihood of high temperatures ranging from 30 ℃ to 35 ℃ over extensive areas in the south, central and northeastern parts of the country. Milder temperatures ranging between 20 ℃ and 25 ℃ are anticipated over some areas in the following regions: Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer and Sanaag regions and inland parts of Bari region. Moderate temperatures of 25℃ to 30 ℃ will prevail over the rest of the country.

Between the 12th and 15th of November 2023, approximately 24,318 buildings, 562 km of roads and 14,697 Hectares of farms in Belet Weyne were flooded, as depicted on the map. The flood extents were identified through a comprehensive analysis, incorporating data from a modified Global Flood Model (GFM) based on Sentinel-1 image of November 14, 2023, visual interpretation of UNOSAT Beletweyne city extent data of November 12, 2023, and Sentinel-2 image of November 15, 2023. This inundation had a notable impact on the region, affecting 54% of buildings, 6% of the main road distance, and 41% of agricultural cropland. The data derived from this analysis offers a detailed overview of the extent and consequences of the flooding, facilitating a more informed understanding of the situation for effective response and mitigation efforts.

In the next one-week, heavy rainfall is expected over the coastal parts of Galmudug; moderate to heavy rainfall is likely over Gedo, parts of Bakool, Hiran, Lower Juba, and Middle Juba regions, and dry conditions with chances of isolated light rainfall in anticipated over Somaliland and Puntland (Map 1). The three -days forecast (Map 1) shows that much of the forecast rains over Mudug region are likely to be received between 8th and 10th November 2023. The spatio-temperal variation of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) is described below: • Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected over several areas in the coastal parts of Galmudug state and in isolated areas in Jilib district in Middle Juba region, Garbaharey and Belet Xaawo districts in Gedo region, and Hudur and Tayeeglow districts in Bakool. The rains over the coastal parts of Galmudug are likely to be intense (more than 150 mm) with the localized storms over Ceel Dheer and Xarardheere districts cumulating to over 200 mm. • Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is forecast over several areas in Gedo region, Ceel Dheer and Ceel Buur districts in Galgadudd region, Xarardheere, Hobyo and Jaribaan districts in Mudug region, Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, and Hudur and Tayeeglow districts in Bakool region. Towards the south, rainfall of similar amount is expected over several areas in Qansax Dheere and Dinsoor districts in Bay region, Jilib and Saakow districts in Middle Juba region, Jamaame district, southern parts of Badhaadhe district, western parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region. • Light to rainfall of below 50 mm is expected over several areas in Lower Shabelle and Middle Shabelle regions, Kismaayo district and central and eastern parts of Afmadow districts in Lower Juba region, central parts of Middle Juba region including Bualle district. Similar rains are also likely over Bur Hakaba abd Baydhaba districts in Bay region, Rab Dhuure, Waajid and Ceel Barde districts in Bakool region, BeletWeyne and Jalalaqsi districts in Hiraan region. In the central parts of country, the areas that are expected to receive rains if similar intensities include: Cabudwaaq, Dhuusamareeb and Cadaado districts in Galgaduud region and Galdogob district in Mudug region. • Dry conditions are expected over expansive areas in Somaliland and Puntland, except Gaalkacyo district in Mudug region where isolated light rainfall is expected.

Juba River Moderate to heavy rains received for about two weeks have generated run off that have caused the water levels along the entire Juba River to overflow their riverbanks causing devastating floods which have led to damage to crop lands and road infrastructure rendering them impassable and cutting off access in to and out of towns and other human settlements. Following heavy rains (125.0 mm) recorded yesterday 19th November 2023, the bridge at Luuq has been reportedly overtopped and is at risk of being swept away. The rains over Bardheere have been particularly intense with 108 mm, 35 mm, 96 mm and 58 mm of rain having been observed on 16th, 17th, 19th and 20th November 2023, respectively leading to sweeping away of Budubo bridge. Heavy rains have also been received downstream at Bualle with 71.0 mm being recorded yesterday, 19th November 2023. The light to moderate rainfall forecast over Juba River catchment in Ethiopian Highlands and within the Somalia border in Luuq district of Gedo region will generate runoff of less volume compared to previous week. However, the runoff from the previous moderate to heavy rains and ongoing light to moderate rains will sustain the river overflows and flooding at Dollow and Luuq. Run off from both ongoing and forecast moderate to heavy rains over the Juba River downstream catchment at Bardheere district in Gedo region and parts of Middle Juba region will generate enough runoff leading to increased river overflows and flooding at Bardheere, Saakow, Bualle and Jilib districts. There is therefore SUSTAINED FLOODING along the entire Juba River with INCREASING MAGNITUDE at both Bardheere and downstream at Saakow, Bualle and Jilib. The activated response plans should therefore be sustained along the upper stretch and upscaled downstream at Bardheere, Saakow, Bualle and Jilib. Shabelle River Water levels along the Shabelle River have been steadily increasing in the last three weeks. The river reached bankful level (8.30m) at Belet Weyne on Saturday 11th November 2023. The subsequent riverbank overflow led to massive floods in Belet Weyne town and the surrounding areas leading to damage to buildings, crop lands and rendering the passage into and out of town impassable due to bridge overflows. Based on timely advisories from SWALIM, SoDMA/MoHADM and other partners, the population was safely evacuated to designated higher grounds by the time the floods started. Moderate to heavy rains have been reported along the Shabelle River catchment with 70 mm, 31.8 mm and 29 mm received yesterday, 19th November 2023, at Bulo Burte, Jowhar and Balcad, respectively. The flow of the flood wave downstream coupled with moderate to heavy rains have led to river level rise at Bulo Burte to 32 cm above high flood risk level and only 48 cm below bankful. At Jowhar the level is only 10 cm below moderate risk level and 60 cm to bankful. Even if the flood wave is expected to flow downstream beyond Balcad in the coming days, floods have already been observed as a result of river breakages and flash floods. The light to moderate rainfall forecast over Shabelle River catchment in Ethiopian Highlands and within Hiran region in Somalia will generate runoff of less volume compared to previous week. However, the runoff from the previous moderate to heavy rains and ongoing light to moderate rains will sustain the river overflows and flooding at Belet Weyne and steady river level rise downstream at Bulo Burte, Jalalaqsi, Jowhar and Balcad. There is therefore SUSTAINED FLOODING at Belet Weyne and its environs and HIGH RISK OF FLOODING at Bulo Burte and its environs and PROJECTED HIGH RISK at Jowhar and its environs. The activated response plans should therefore be sustained at Belet Weyne town and the surrounding areas. The evacuation plans should be activated and sustained at Bulo Burte and surrounding areas, while it should be placed on standby at Jowhar and surrounding areas.

Utilizing the flood extent analysis conducted by UNOSAT on November 7th, 2023, it is evident that the onset of El Niño in the Horn of Africa has caused the flooding of 6,494 hectares of land in Luuq District. As per OSM data, this has resulted in the submersion of 316 buildings and 29 kilometers of roads. Additionally, 3,013 hectares of agricultural land, as per SWALIM agrimask, were submerged. This data emphasizes the immediate and significant repercussions of the ongoing El Niño event on the region.

By 20th of November 2023, approximately 43,455 buildings; 968 Km of road and 28,418 Hectares of farms in Belet Weyne were flooded, as depicted on the map. The flood extents were identified through a comprehensive analysis, incorporating data from a modified Global Flood Model (GFM) based on Sentinel-1 image of November 20, 2023, visual interpretation of UNOSAT Beletweyne city extent data of November 16, 2023, and Sentinel-2 image of November 20, 2023. This inundation had a notable impact on the region. The data derived from this analysis offers a detailed overview of the extent and consequences of the flooding, facilitating a more informed understanding of the situation for effective response and mitigation efforts.

Light Rainfall expected over the Central Parts of Hargeisa and Gebiley Districts, with Dry Conditions Beyond the Eastern and Northern Parts of Baki and Borama Districts Weather Review for the Period 1st and 7th November 2023 During the period under review, rainfall of at least 1 mm was recorded in Thirteen (13) stations (Graph 1), down from twenty (20) stations the previous week. The following eleven (11) stations, down from six (6) stations, observed cumulative rainfall equal to or greater than 30 mm: Caynabo (79 mm), Gumburaha (78 mm), Laas Dawaco (74 mm), Sheikh (67.5 mm), Yagori (66 mm), Balli Dhiig (60 mm), Salaxley (46 mm), Garadag (43 mm), Geerisa (40 mm), Bolohar (36 mm), and Lughaye (32 mm). The best temporal distribution of rainfall was realized at Caynabo (79 mm) where three rainy days were recorded. The most intense rains were those received in a single day over Yagori (66 mm), Geerisa (40 mm), Bolohar (36 mm), Lughaye (32 mm), Erigavo (26.5 mm), and Burao (17 mm). Weather Forecast for the Period 10th to 16th November 2023 Rainfall Forecast Light rainfall of between 30 mm and 40 mm is expected over the western parts of Hargeisa district and central parts of Gebiley district. Light rainfall of between 10 mm and 30 mm is likely over Baki district, eastern parts of Hargeisa district, southern and northern parts of Gebiley district and southern parts of Borama. Dry conditions with chances of light rainfall of below 10 mm are likely to prevail over the eastern parts of the project area. Temperature Forecast Milder temperatures of between 20 ℃ and 25 ℃ are likely over Borama and Gebiley districts, southern parts of Baki district, and most parts of Hargeisa district except over the northern where relatively higher temperatures 25℃ and 30 ℃. will prevail. High temperatures of between 30 ℃ and 35 ℃ are also likely over Lughaye and northern parts of Baki districts.