According to the Seasonal Climate Forecast issued by IGAD’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), there is a 55% likelihood that above normal rainfall (wetter than normal conditions) will be observed over most parts of Somalia. In the south these above normal rains are likely over Gedo, Bay, and most parts of Bakool regions. In the north, chances of above normal Gu rains are particularly high over Bari, Nugaal, Sool, Sanaag and Awdal regions, Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region, and the southern parts of Togdheer region. Above normal rains are also likely over Mudug and Galgaduud regions in the central parts of the country, there is 40 – 50 % likelihood above normal rains over Hiraan region and extensive coastal parts of the following regions: Lower Juba, Middle Juba, and Lower Shabelle.

Several key findings have been obtained following a review of the 2023 Deyr (October-November-December) seasonal rainfall. Heavy cumulative rainfall was observed over the south and central parts of the country with a substantial 1,152 mm being recorded in Baidoa in Bay region representing five times of the station’s Long-Term Mean (LTM). The rainfall was even much heavier in Berbera in Wooqoyi Galbeed Region where the amount was 26 times the LTM. The Deyr rains began in early October over parts of Somaliland and central parts of Puntland spreading southwards to Gedo and Bay-Bakool regions. However, there was a sharp end to the Deyr rains particularly over Puntland and Somaliland with no single rainy day observed in Puntland in December. There was more than 30 consecutive dry days in almost all the stations in the country between 1st October and 31st December 2023. The observed rainfall amounts, and the length of wet spells particularly over the Juba and Shabelle River basins within the country were 100% in agreement with the forecast. The onset of Deyr rains across the country was also generally in agreement with the forecast with most of the stations realizing onset within a week of the forecast date.

Weather Forecast for the Period 1st to 7th December 2023 Rainfall Forecast: Light rainfall ranging between 2 to 5 mm is expected in the northeastern parts of the project area. This encompasses the western regions of Berbera district, Banmadar and Cabdi Geeddi in the eastern regions of the Baki district, as well as Beeyo Liiban in the eastern parts of Lughaye district and Ceel Lay Heelay in the northern part of Hargeisa district. Conversely, dry conditions are expected to persist across the remaining project areas, with the likelihood of rainfall less than 2 mm. Temperature Forecast: Mild temperatures between 20°C and 25°C are expected in the southern parts of Borama and Gebiley districts, as well as the southwest of Hargeisa district. Northern parts of Lughaye district are expected to experience relatively higher temperatures ranging from 30°C to 35°C. For the rest of the project area, moderate temperatures between 25°C and 30°C is expected.

Dry conditions: Most parts of the country are expected to remain dry during the coming week. The model predictions for the month of December indicating minimal rainfall amounts across the country and the Ethiopian highlands signals the end of the Deyr rainy season for Somalia. Temperature Forecast: The current forecast indicates likelihood of high temperatures ranging from 30°C to 35°C over extensive areas in the south, central and northeastern parts of the country. Milder temperatures ranging between 20°C and 25°C are anticipated over some areas in the following regions: Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer and Sanaag regions and inland parts of Bari region. Moderate temperatures of 25°C to 30°C are anticipated in the rest of the country.

Light rainfall of below 50 mm is forecast over some areas in the southern parts of the country in the coming week. These light rains are expected in the earlier part of the forecast week (13th – 15th December) over Badhaadhe, Kismayo and Jamaame districts in Lower Juba region, Ceel Waaq and Belet Xaawo districts in the Gedo region. Other areas expected to receive the light rains are the coastal areas of Jilib district in Middle Juba region, Marca and Kurtunwaarey districts, areas in the Sablaale, Qoryooley, and Barawe districts in Lower Shabelle region, and Baidoa in Bay region. Although moderate in cumulative amounts, the rains over the Lower Juba region are likely to be spread out across the entire week and will therefore be less intense. Moderate rains above 50 mm may be observed in some areas along the southern coastal strip whenever the monsoonal winds blowing parallel to the coastline are accentuated by any elevated East-West oriented terrain. As these monsoonal winds blow southwards across the Gulf, there are also chances of trace amounts of rains over the northern coastal strip including Caluula and Qandala districts in Bari region and Berbera districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Dry conditions – The rest of the country is expected to remain dry during the coming week. The model predictions of minimal rainfall amount across the country and the Ethiopian highlands in the month of December signals the end of the Deyr rainy season for Somalia.

Juba River Moderate to heavy rains received for about two weeks have generated run off that have caused the water levels along the entire Juba River to overflow their riverbanks causing devastating floods which have led to damage to crop lands and road infrastructure rendering them impassable and cutting off access in to and out of towns and other human settlements. Following heavy rains (125.0 mm) recorded yesterday 19th November 2023, the bridge at Luuq has been reportedly overtopped and is at risk of being swept away. The rains over Bardheere have been particularly intense with 108 mm, 35 mm, 96 mm and 58 mm of rain having been observed on 16th, 17th, 19th and 20th November 2023, respectively leading to sweeping away of Budubo bridge. Heavy rains have also been received downstream at Bualle with 71.0 mm being recorded yesterday, 19th November 2023. The light to moderate rainfall forecast over Juba River catchment in Ethiopian Highlands and within the Somalia border in Luuq district of Gedo region will generate runoff of less volume compared to previous week. However, the runoff from the previous moderate to heavy rains and ongoing light to moderate rains will sustain the river overflows and flooding at Dollow and Luuq. Run off from both ongoing and forecast moderate to heavy rains over the Juba River downstream catchment at Bardheere district in Gedo region and parts of Middle Juba region will generate enough runoff leading to increased river overflows and flooding at Bardheere, Saakow, Bualle and Jilib districts. There is therefore SUSTAINED FLOODING along the entire Juba River with INCREASING MAGNITUDE at both Bardheere and downstream at Saakow, Bualle and Jilib. The activated response plans should therefore be sustained along the upper stretch and upscaled downstream at Bardheere, Saakow, Bualle and Jilib. Shabelle River Water levels along the Shabelle River have been steadily increasing in the last three weeks. The river reached bankful level (8.30m) at Belet Weyne on Saturday 11th November 2023. The subsequent riverbank overflow led to massive floods in Belet Weyne town and the surrounding areas leading to damage to buildings, crop lands and rendering the passage into and out of town impassable due to bridge overflows. Based on timely advisories from SWALIM, SoDMA/MoHADM and other partners, the population was safely evacuated to designated higher grounds by the time the floods started. Moderate to heavy rains have been reported along the Shabelle River catchment with 70 mm, 31.8 mm and 29 mm received yesterday, 19th November 2023, at Bulo Burte, Jowhar and Balcad, respectively. The flow of the flood wave downstream coupled with moderate to heavy rains have led to river level rise at Bulo Burte to 32 cm above high flood risk level and only 48 cm below bankful. At Jowhar the level is only 10 cm below moderate risk level and 60 cm to bankful. Even if the flood wave is expected to flow downstream beyond Balcad in the coming days, floods have already been observed as a result of river breakages and flash floods. The light to moderate rainfall forecast over Shabelle River catchment in Ethiopian Highlands and within Hiran region in Somalia will generate runoff of less volume compared to previous week. However, the runoff from the previous moderate to heavy rains and ongoing light to moderate rains will sustain the river overflows and flooding at Belet Weyne and steady river level rise downstream at Bulo Burte, Jalalaqsi, Jowhar and Balcad. There is therefore SUSTAINED FLOODING at Belet Weyne and its environs and HIGH RISK OF FLOODING at Bulo Burte and its environs and PROJECTED HIGH RISK at Jowhar and its environs. The activated response plans should therefore be sustained at Belet Weyne town and the surrounding areas. The evacuation plans should be activated and sustained at Bulo Burte and surrounding areas, while it should be placed on standby at Jowhar and surrounding areas.

Utilizing the flood extent analysis conducted by UNOSAT on November 7th, 2023, it is evident that the onset of El Niño in the Horn of Africa has caused the flooding of 6,494 hectares of land in Luuq District. As per OSM data, this has resulted in the submersion of 316 buildings and 29 kilometers of roads. Additionally, 3,013 hectares of agricultural land, as per SWALIM agrimask, were submerged. This data emphasizes the immediate and significant repercussions of the ongoing El Niño event on the region.

By 20th of November 2023, approximately 43,455 buildings; 968 Km of road and 28,418 Hectares of farms in Belet Weyne were flooded, as depicted on the map. The flood extents were identified through a comprehensive analysis, incorporating data from a modified Global Flood Model (GFM) based on Sentinel-1 image of November 20, 2023, visual interpretation of UNOSAT Beletweyne city extent data of November 16, 2023, and Sentinel-2 image of November 20, 2023. This inundation had a notable impact on the region. The data derived from this analysis offers a detailed overview of the extent and consequences of the flooding, facilitating a more informed understanding of the situation for effective response and mitigation efforts.

Light Rainfall expected over the Central Parts of Hargeisa and Gebiley Districts, with Dry Conditions Beyond the Eastern and Northern Parts of Baki and Borama Districts Weather Review for the Period 1st and 7th November 2023 During the period under review, rainfall of at least 1 mm was recorded in Thirteen (13) stations (Graph 1), down from twenty (20) stations the previous week. The following eleven (11) stations, down from six (6) stations, observed cumulative rainfall equal to or greater than 30 mm: Caynabo (79 mm), Gumburaha (78 mm), Laas Dawaco (74 mm), Sheikh (67.5 mm), Yagori (66 mm), Balli Dhiig (60 mm), Salaxley (46 mm), Garadag (43 mm), Geerisa (40 mm), Bolohar (36 mm), and Lughaye (32 mm). The best temporal distribution of rainfall was realized at Caynabo (79 mm) where three rainy days were recorded. The most intense rains were those received in a single day over Yagori (66 mm), Geerisa (40 mm), Bolohar (36 mm), Lughaye (32 mm), Erigavo (26.5 mm), and Burao (17 mm). Weather Forecast for the Period 10th to 16th November 2023 Rainfall Forecast Light rainfall of between 30 mm and 40 mm is expected over the western parts of Hargeisa district and central parts of Gebiley district. Light rainfall of between 10 mm and 30 mm is likely over Baki district, eastern parts of Hargeisa district, southern and northern parts of Gebiley district and southern parts of Borama. Dry conditions with chances of light rainfall of below 10 mm are likely to prevail over the eastern parts of the project area. Temperature Forecast Milder temperatures of between 20 ℃ and 25 ℃ are likely over Borama and Gebiley districts, southern parts of Baki district, and most parts of Hargeisa district except over the northern where relatively higher temperatures 25℃ and 30 ℃. will prevail. High temperatures of between 30 ℃ and 35 ℃ are also likely over Lughaye and northern parts of Baki districts.

According to the coming week’s weather forecast, substantial rainfall is expected over Middle Shabelle region and the coastal areas of Galgaduud region. Additionally, the forecast indicates a range from moderate to heavy rainfall across Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Gedo, Lower Shabelle, and Bay regions. Dry conditions are anticipated throughout the rest of the country, with isolated chances of light rainfall over Bakool, Bari, Sanaag, and Woqooyi Galbeed regions. For the spatial and temporal distribution of the forecasted rainfall, refer to Map 1. Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected over coastal areas of Cadale, Balcad and Adan Yabaal districts in Middle Shabelle region. Similarly heavy rainfall is likely over Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is forecast over inland parts of Cadale, Balcad and Adan Yabaal districts in Middle Shabelle region and Kismayo district in Lower Juba region. Light rainfall of below 50 mm is expected over Waajid district in Bakool, several areas in Lower Juba region, Middle Juba, Gedo, Bay, and Lower Shabelle regions. Similar conditions are likely in Caluula and Iskushuban districts in Bari region, and coastal parts of both Laasqoray and Berbera districts. Dry conditions are expected over areas around Saakow district in Middle Juba, Garbahaarey and Luuq districts in Gedo region, scattered areas of Bay region, extensive parts of Bakool, Hiraan, Galgaduud regions. Similar dry weather patterns are also expected in extensive parts of the entire northern regions of the country. Temperature Forecast: The current forecast indicates the likelihood of high temperatures ranging from 35°C to 45°C over extensive parts of the south, central and northeastern parts of the country. Milder temperatures ranging between 20°C and 25°C are anticipated over Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer and Sanaag regions and Inland parts of Bari region.