Light to moderate rain is expected over parts of northern Somalia (Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Sanaag, Togdheer) and localized areas in the south (Gedo, Lower and Middle Juba), while dry conditions dominate central and southern regions High temperatures (35–40°C) will persist across much of central and southern Somalia, increasing evapotranspiration and moisture stress Shabelle River levels remain elevated and propagating downstream, posing a risk of localized flooding if additional upstream and local rainfall occurs Rainfall is expected to result in localized improvements, but recovery will remain uneven, particularly in southern drought-affected areas

Rainfall remains uneven, concentrated in southern districts (Lower Juba, Bay, and Gedo regions) and northern regions remain mostly dry during the coming week., very heavy rainfall is highly localized in Lower Juba with flash flooding risk in prone areas, high temperatures persist across central and southern Somalia with drought recovery expected to still be slow, localized, and uncertain, Shabelle River remains critically elevated, with flood risk downstream

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, light rainfall is expected over most parts of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Sanaag, Togdheer, Lower Juba, Middle Juba, and Gedo regions. Light rains are also likely over some parts of Bay region particularly Qansax Dheere and Dinsoor districts; some parts of Bakool region particularly Rab Dhuure and Waajid districts; and some parts of Lower Shabelle particularly Sablaale and Baraawe districts. The rains over Borama district, southern parts of Baki district in Awdal region; northern parts of both Gebilley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region and northern highlands in Sanaag region may cumulate to over 50 mm by the end of the forecast week.

This is an update to the Gu 2026 Climate Outlook Bulletin issued on 7 February 2026. It incorporates National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF) outcomes, latest IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC) rainfall forecast, Post Deyr IPC Analyses released on 24 February 2026, and community feedback received in mid-February 2026 Updated outlook indicates improved rainfall prospects in parts of southern, central and northern Somalia, but localized below-normal risks persist in Bari and parts of Bay and Woqooyi Galbeed, with high spatial variability Above-normal temperatures are forecast across most of the country; however, normal to below-normal temperatures are expected over Gebiley district and southern Hargeisa (Woqooyi Galbeed), parts of Owdweyne (Togdheer), and central highland areas of Ceerigaabo (Sanaag). While heat will intensify drought impacts nationally, these localized cooler conditions may moderate evapotranspiration and slightly ease drought stress in those highland areas Recent food security analyses signal a marked deterioration in household conditions during Feb–Mar 2026, reflecting cumulative drought impacts, water shortages, livestock losses, and weakened coping capacity Even under a near-average Gu scenario (Apr–Jun), only partial improvement is anticipated, indicating that rainfall gains may not translate into significant recovery Gu 2026 should therefore be treated as a stabilization window—not a recovery season, requiring sustained drought response, flexible anticipatory action, and close monitoring

The Food and Agriculture Organization's Somalia Water and Land Information Management (FAO SWALIM) Project has finalized the analysis and mapping of the river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle rivers using very high resolution satellite imagery. Breakages identified in the maps have been classified into five categories: Open, Overflow, Canal Breakage, Canal Intake Flooding, and Closed with Sandbags. A legend/key for further explanation of the different types of breakages is provided. Along the Shabelle River, a total of 124 Open points, 56 Canal Flooding points, 130 River Overflow points, and 23 points Closed with Sandbags have been identified, while along the Juba River, 73 Open points, 11 Canal Flooding points, 11 River Overflow points, and 1 point Closed with Sandbags have been identified. Several other points, which are either potential or temporarily closed with sandbags, have also been identified. There is a need to close the open points and reinforce areas where there are weak river embankments to avoid loss of lives and livelihoods during the upcoming rainy season.

Light rainfall is expected over parts of Gedo, Awdal, Waqooyi Galbeed, and northern Sanaag. The April outlook favors above-normal rainfall over much of southern and central Somalia. Very high temperatures (35–40°C) are expected across much of central and southern Somalia. Shabelle and Juba River levels are expected to remain below flood risk thresholds over the forecast period

Rains are most likely to begin over Gedo in the third week of April, progressing eastwards to Lower and Middle Juba, Bay, Bakool, Lower and Middle Shabelle, Hiraan, Galgaduud, Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, and Sool by the fourth week of April (Figure 3). Mudug, Nugaal, and Sanaag are likely to follow in the first week of May, and Bari in the second week of May. Although isolated rainfall may occur as early as late March, operational onset is expected later in April. There are chances of delayed onset in parts of Jubaland, Nugaal, and Woqooyi Galbeed, while earlier onset is possible in central regions. Onset timing remains highly uncertain over Bari, Sool, and Sanaag.

The Somalia Water and Land Information Management (SWALIM) project, implemented by FAO, provides critical water and land resource information to support sustainable development, disaster preparedness, and humanitarian response in Somalia. This newsletter highlights our latest activities, data products, and technical updates from drought and flood monitoring to groundwater assessments and capacity building initiatives. We aim to keep our partners informed and strengthen evidence-based decision-making across Somalia.

Based on NOAA-NCEP GFS, dry conditions are expected to prevail in most parts of the country with chances of very light rains in some parts of Jubaland (Figure 1). Dry conditions are also expected over the entire Shabelle River catchment. Light isolated rains are expected over the Juba River catchment within and outside Somalia.

According to UNHCR, severe drought has led to the displacement of 156,000 people from Toghdeer, Sool and Sanaag regions in search of water and pasture. An additional 29,142 people have also been displaced across Bari, Mudug, Nugaal and Sanaaag regions due to drought.