Based on NOAA-NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS), light rains are expected in several areas in the country with chances of moderate intense rains over isolated areas in Afmadow (Lower Juba), Baydhaba (Bay), and Wanla Weyne (Lower Shabelle) regions. Most northern parts of Awdal region and coastal parts of Mudug, Nugaal and Bari will likely remain dry. Although the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is currently within a region of influence ( phase 1/2), its present and forecast strength may not favor very heavy rains within the forecast period. Moderate rains cumulating to about 100 mm at the end of the forecast period are possible. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall are as follows: Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over several areas in the country including Togdheer, Sool, Sanaag, Galgaduud, Hiraan, Lower Shabelle, Bakool and Gedo regions; Borama district in Awdal region; Gebiley district, northern and southern parts of Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region; Bossaso and Qandala districts and northern parts of Qardho district in Bari region; Burtinle district and southern parts of Garowe district in Nugaal region; Xaradheere and Galdogob districts, northern parts of Galkacyo district, western parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region; Jowhar and Adan Yabaal districts in Middle Shabelle region; and Qansax Dheere and northern parts of Buur Hakaba district in Bay region. It is important to note that such light rains are also likely over the upper catchments of Juba River in Ethiopia. Moderate cumulative rainfall of 50 mm and more is likely over isolated areas in the northern parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region; northern parts of Baydhaba district in Bay region; central parts of Wanla Weyne district in Lower Shabelle region; Balcad district in Middle Shabelle region; northern parts of Ceel Barde district and northern parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool region; Jalalaqsi district and central parts of Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region; northern and southern parts of Laasqoray district and eastern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region; and central parts of Burco district in Togdheer region. Similar moderate rains will also be observed over most parts of the upper catchments of Shabelle River in Ethiopia. The rains over isolated areas in the northern parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region; northern parts of Baydhaba district in Bay region; central parts of Wanla Weyne district in Lower Shabelle region may increase in intensity with up to more than 50 mm within the first 3 days and summing up to more than 100 mm by the end of the forecast period. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over most parts of Middle Juba region; Zeylac, and Lughaye districts and northern parts of Baki district in Awdal region; Berbera district, and northern parts of Gebiley district and central parts of Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region; northern parts of Ceel Afweyn district in Sanaag region; Caluula, Iskushuban and Bandarbeyla districts and southern parts of Qardho district in Bari region; Eyl district in Nugaal region; Jariiban, Hobyo and Cadaado districts, and southern parts of Galkacyo district in Mudug region; eastern parts of both Ceel Buur district; eastern and western parts of Dhuusamarreeb district, and coastal parts of Ceel dheer district in Galgaduud region; Cadele district in Middle Shabelle region; Baraawe and Kurtunwaarey districts in Lower Shabelle region; northern parts of Dinsoor district and southern parts of Buur Hakaba district in Bay region; Luuq and Ceel Waaq districts in Gedo region; Jamaame district, eastern parts of both Afmadow and Badhaadhe districts and northern parts of Kismaayo district in Lower Juba region.

According to the NOAA-NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) forecast, moderate (50 – 100 mm) to heavy rains (100 – 150 mm)are expected over Bay and Bakool regions and parts of Hiraan region. Light rains (less than 50 mm) are likely over the rest of the country except over most parts of Puntland and Awdal region where dry conditions are likely to prevail. Although the current and forecast position of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is outside the region of influence, the rains over Bay and Bakool may cumulate to more than 150 mm by the end of the forecast period. Other regional factors and intraseasonal atmospheric influences are likely to be favoring this increased onshore moisture transports and rainfall in the region. Although the performance of Gu rains has a weak connection with El nino southern Oscillation (ENSO), the weakening of La Niña during March and April seems to have favored moderate rains at the start of the season. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 2) are as follows: Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over several areas in the country including most parts of Togdheer, Sool, Galgaduud, Middle Juba and Banadir regions; southern parts of Hargeysa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region; Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region; some isolated parts in the western parts of Qardho district in Bari region; northern parts of Garoowe district and western parts of Burtinle District in Nugaal region; Gaalkacyo, Galdogob and Xarardheere districts and southern parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region; Jalalaqsi district and northern parts of both Belet Weyne and Bulo Burte districts in Hiraan region; northern parts of both Jowhar and Adan Yabaal districts and coastal parts of both Balcad and Adan Yabaal districts in Middle Shabelle region; eastern parts of both Wanla Weyn and Afgooye districts in Lower Shabelle region; western parts of Qansax Dheere district and southern parts of Dinsoor district in Bay region; Doolow district and southern parts of Baardheere district in Gedo region; Jamaame district, northern parts of Kismaayo district and southern parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region. Moderate cumulative rainfall of 50 mm to 100 mm is likely to occur over most parts of Bay region particularly Buur Hakaba district; most parts of Bakool region including Rab Dhuure and Ceel Barde districts; and most parts of Lower Shabelle region particularly Marka and Baraawe districts, southern parts of Sablaale district, and western parts of both Wanla Weyn and Afgooye districts; Luuq, Belet Xaawo and Garbahaarey districts, northern parts of both Ceel Waaq and Baardheere districts; south-eastern parts of Afmadow district; western parts of both Belet Weyne districts in Hiraan region; Middle Shabelle region particularly Cadale district, central parts of Jowhar, and inland parts of Balcad district; areas at the border of Ceel Buur and Dhuusamarreeb districts in Galgaduud region. It is important to note that similar moderate rains will also be observed over several parts of both Shabelle and Juba River catchments within the country and in Ethiopia. Heavy cumulative rainfall of between 100 and 150 mm is likely to be observed over most parts of Baydhaba district and northern parts of Buur Hakaba district in Bay region; eastern parts of Luuq district in Gedo region; Waajid, Xudur and Tayeeglow districts in Bakool region; western parts of Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region. Very heavy cumulative rainfall of over 150 mm is likely to be observed over some northern parts of Baydhaba district in Bay region; Xudur district and southern parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool region. There is a chance that the rains over these areas may exceed 200 mm by the end of the forecast period. Daily forecasts suggest that much of these rains may be observed on the 18 and 19 April with likelihood of flash flooding over prone areas. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over most parts Awdal and Bari regions; most parts of Lower Juba region particularly Badhaadhe district; Jariiban district in Mudug region, most parts of Nugaal region particularly Eyl district and eastern parts of Garoowe districts; some parts of Sanaag region particularly Ceel Afweyn district, northern parts of Laasqoray district and the coastal parts of Ceerigaabo district; and most parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region particularly Berbera and Gebiley districts and northern parts of Hargeisa district.

FAO-SWALIM has updated the status of the river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers using available Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM). Five types of breakages have been identified; Open, Overflow, Canal Breakage, Canal Intake Flooding and Closed with sandbags. The open breakages are those that are currently open as observed on the latest VHR image available. All the observations reported refers to the latest suitable VHR satellite image available, which is indicated in the online database. A legend/Key for further explanation of the different types of breakages is provided. Along the Juba river 109 Open points, 1 Canal Breakage, 20 Canal flooding points, 87 Overflow points and 1 point closed with sandbags have been identified. Along the Shabelle river, a total of 98 Open breakage points, 2 Canal Breakages, 56 Canal flooding points, 94 Overflow points and 5 points closed with sandbags have been identified. Users are advised that the methodology is biased towards Remote Sensing (RS) interpretation with only limited “ground truthing” due to access constraints. Open breakages might have been omitted in some cases where satellite images may not have been very clear (e.g. heavy cloud cover) or were not available.

The impacts of climate change have become more apparent in GHA’s cross-border regions, evident in the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events, mainly recurring and severe droughts and floods. This national forum is, therefore, a much-needed platform that encourages exchange and interactions among pastoralists, farmers, climate information producers and users, and multi-institutional and multi-stakeholder collaboration. At the end of the workshop, the development and release of expected impacts and advisories based on the Gu 2025 seasonal outlook were the key outputs of the meeting. The Gu season is crucial for all regions in Somalia, contributing up to 40-70% of annual rainfall in the southern and northwestern parts of the country, and 50-70% in the central and northern parts of the country. On average, the Gu season brings 200-300 mm of rainfall in the southern parts, 100-200 mm of rainfall over the central and northwestern parts, and 50-100 mm of rainfall over the northern parts of the country. The Gu 2025 rainfall outlook shows a high likelihood of drier-than-normal conditions across all states and regions of Somalia, except for isolated highland areas in the Sanaag and Bari regions in the north and coastal parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region. Several areas in Gedo, Bakool and Galgaduud regions, northwestern parts of Bay region particularly Baydhaba district, eastern parts of Hiraan region, and areas of Mudug region bordering Ethiopia particularly Galdogob district, are predicted to have more than a 50 % likelihood of experiencing drier-than-normal conditions (Figure 1).

This tail end of March marks the climatological start of the Gu rains with the arrival of the InterTropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) from the southern hemisphere. Based on NOAA-NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS), light rains are expected in the southern parts of the country with most parts of Somaliland and Puntland remaining dry. The status and forecast evolution of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) does not favor the likelihood of heavy rains within the forecast period. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) are as follows: Moderate cumulative rainfall of 50 mm and more is likely over very isolated areas in Dollow district, western parts of Luuq district and northern parts of Belet Xaawo district in Gedo region. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over most parts of Gedo region, and some parts of Lower Juba particularly Badhaadhe district, Bay particularly Baydhaba district, Bakool particularly Ceel Barde district, Hiraan particularly Belet Weyne town, Saakow district in Middle Juba region, Middle Shabelle including Banadir region. Light rainfall is also likely over the western parts of both Dhuusamareeb and Ceel Dheer districts in Galgaduud region, southmost parts of both Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region and elevated areas in eastern parts of Ceel Afweyn district in Sanaag region. It is important to point out that light to moderate rains is forecast to fall within the catchments of Juba River. Light rains are anticipated over the lower reaches of Shabelle River and moderate rains further up in Ethiopian Highlands. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over vast areas in Mudug region, Nugaal region and Bari regions. Similarly dry conditions are also expected in Sool, most low-lying areas in Sanaag region, vast inland parts of Awdal region, Berbera district and northern parts of both Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region.

Contributing to about 60 % of annual rainfall, Gu season is critical for the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) including Somalia. According to IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC), Gu 2025 is predicted to be characterized by below normal rainfall, normal to delayed onset and above normal temperatures. There is a 45 % likelihood that most parts of the country (Zone IV in yellow/orange in Map 4) will observe below normal rains. There is even a higher likelihood (55 %) of drier conditions being observed over Gedo, and some parts of Bay, Bakool, Hiraan and Awdal (dark orange). However, there are chances of very isolated above normal rains in some parts of Puntland. There is very low probability that cumulative Gu rainfall amount will exceed 200mm particularly over the Shabelle River Catchment. However, there are chances of exceedance over the uppermost and lowermost reaches of Juba River Catchment. ICPAC have also reported that the status and predicted evolution of climate drivers in 2024/2025 closely resemble observations made in 2016/2017 and 2020/2021. The characteristics of the Gu 2025 are therefore expected to resemble those observed in 2017 and 2021.

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS forecasts, only very light rains (<10 mm) are expected over extremely narrow northern coastal parts of Somalia during the coming week (Map 2). Dry conditions will dominate the rest of the country as Somalia remains under a La Niña Watch phase. As the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) moves further south, the Northeast monsoon will develop further with strengthened wind conditions particularly at Eyl district in Nugaal region and Bandarbeyla district in Bari region. The light rains along the narrow northern coastal areas are therefore likely to be favoured by the moisture influx associated with these winds. However, the present and forecast forward propagation of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is likely to suppress moisture availability with very low chance of significant rainfall in the next two (2) weeks.

According to ICPAC WRF forecasts, light rains (of less than 10 mm) are expected over some areas in the north and south with chances of up to 50 mm over some areas in Lower Juba and Middle Juba regions during the coming week. Dry conditions will dominate the rest of the country as Somalia remains under a La Niña Watch phase. As the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) moves further south, the Northeast monsoon will develop further with strengthened wind conditions particularly at Eyl district in Nugaal region and Bandarbeyla district in Bari region. However, the present and forecasted weakening of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is likely to suppress moisture availability with a very low chance of significant rainfall in the next two (2) weeks.

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, light rainfall is expected over isolated areas in Lower Juba and Bay and along the eastern coastal parts of the country with dry conditions likely to prevail elsewhere during the coming week (Map 3). As the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) moves further south, the Northeast monsoon will develop further with strengthened wind conditions particularly at Eyl district in Nugaal region and Bandarbeyla district in Bari region. The light rains along the narrow upper eastern coastal areas are therefore likely to be favoured by the moisture influx associated with these winds. However, the present and forecast forward propagation of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is likely to suppress moisture availability with very low chance of significant rainfall in the next 2 weeks. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 3) are as follows: Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over isolated areas in Lower Juba region and in Dinsoor district in Bay region. Similar rains are likely over a narrow strip along the eastern coastal parts of the country particularly at the following areas: Adan Yabaal district in Middle Shabelle region, Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region, Hobyo district in Mudug region, Eyl district in Nugaal region, and Bandarbeyle and Caluula district in Bari region. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over the rest of the country particularly Gedo, Bakool, Lower Shabelle, Hiraan, Sool, Sanaag, Togdheer, Woqooyi Galbeed and Awdal regions and inland areas of the following regions: Middle Shabelle, Galgaduud, Mudug, Nugaal and Bari.

The El Nino driven 2023 Deyr rains followed by good 2024 Gu rains, led to replenishment of both surface and ground water sources in Somalia. The spatial variability of the rains however meant different implications on the different aquifers across the country. In Somaliland, the good temporal and spatial distribution of the rains ensured good recharge of ground water sources in most areas. The Karan rains that fall during the normal Hagaa dry period ensured continued replenishment of the ground water sources. South and central Somalia also received average to above average rains in most of the monitored stations. However in Puntland , the below normal rainfall received during this period led to minimal recharge of ground water sources. Between May and September 2024, FAO SWALIM has installed and started the hourly monitoring of 35 boreholes across Somalia. The installation of the hardware is complete, and majority of the stations transmitting data online. There are however few with technical hitches either in the data recording or transmission, and these are being sorted to ensure complete network functionality by end of November 2024. The installed groundwater level monitoring stations provide near real-time data on aquifer fluctuations, enabling efficient and effective management of the water resources. The collected data is analyzed to track changes in aquifer storage, identify areas of potential depletion, and assess the impact of pumping and recharge activities.

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, rainfall for the upcoming week is expected to be moderate in parts of Bay and Lower Shabelle and light over Lower Juba, Gedo, and Middle Juba regions, as well as isolated areas of the Juba and Shabelle River basins. Most of northern Somalia is expected to remain largely dry. The observed rainfall during the previous week is linked to the arrival of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which enhanced moisture influx into southern and central Somalia. However, the weakening of the MJO phase, as indicated by the latest ECMWF forecast, implies less intense rains in the coming weeks. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) are as follows: Moderate cumulative rainfall of 50 mm and above is possible over for south-central parts of the country including the border areas of Dinsoor and Qansax Dheere districts in Bay region and Bardheere district in Gedo region. Similar rains are also likely over Sablaale and Baraawe disctricts in Lower Shabelle region. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is likely over most parts of Lower Juba region, Dinsoor, western parts of Buur Hakaba district and northern parts of Baydhaba district in Bay region; Sablaale, Baraawe, Kurtunwaarey and Marka districts in Lower Shabelle region; Garbahaarey and Ceel Waaq districts in Gedo region; and eastern parts of Ceel Barde district and southern parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool region. Light but very localized rains are possible over central parts of Belet Weyne district and southwestern parts of Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, eastern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region, central parts of Ceel Afweyn district in Sanaag region, and narrow coastal parts of Mudug and Nugaal regions and narrow northern coastal parts of Bari region. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over Middle Shabelle, Galgaduud, Sool, Awdal and Woqqoyi Galbeed regions, non-costal parts of Mudug, Nugaal and Bari regions, and most other parts of Hiraan, Togdheer and Sanaag regions. Dry conditions are also possible over Saakow district in Middle Juba region, western parts of Bardheere district in Gedo region, Rab Dhuure, Waajid and Xudur districts and northern parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool region, southern parts of Baydhaba district and eastern parts of Buur Hakaba district in Bay region, Jalalaqsi district, most other parts of Bulo Burte district and eastern parts Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region.

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, light rainfall is expected over several areas in the south and central regions and in some parts of Somaliland during this last week of November. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over Puntland, Galmudug and Sool-Sanaag regions. The observed rainfall during the first half of November was likely linked to the arrival of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which enhanced moisture influx into southern and central Somalia. The weakening and forward propagation of the MJO in this last week of November, as indicated by the latest ECMWF forecast, is likely to lead to less intense rains in the coming weeks. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) are as follows: Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over several areas in the following regions: Gedo, Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Bay, Bakool, Lower Shabelle, Hiraan, Middle Shabelle, Togdheer, Woqooyi Galbeed and Awdal. The rains over the central parts of Gedo and northern parts of Lower Juba may be intense leading up to moderate amounts of 50 mm or more. It is important to note that similar rainfall amounts are likely over some areas within the catchments of both Juba and Shabelle Rivers Dry conditions are likely to prevail over Bari, Nugaal, Mudug, Galgaduud, Sool, and Sanaag regions and Buhoodle district, northern and southern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region, Gebiley and Berbera districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region, Borama district, southern parts of Zeylac district and central parts of Baki district in Awdal region, central parts of Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region, Jowhar and Balcad districts in Middle Shabelle region, northern parts of Tayeeglow district and Rab Dhuure district in Bakool region, western parts of Dinsoor district and eastern parts of Buur Hakaba district in Bay region, northern parts of Badhaadhe district and southern parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, western parts of Saakow district, northern parts of Bu’aale district, and northern parts of Jilib district in Middle Juba region.

According to NAA-NCEP GFS, rainfall is expected to continue over most parts of Somaliland with a sustained spread of light rains over Hiran, Bay and Bakool regions. The expected eastward and southward distribution of the rains from Somaliland during this time of the season seems to have been hindered by a poorly organized Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Cloudiness in the south, particularly over Lower Juba, Middle Juba and Gedo regions will only translate to light rains. However, there are chances of somehow intense rains in the second week of November. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall are as follows: Heavy cumulative rainfall between 100 mm to 150 mm is expected over southern parts of both Borama and Baki districts in Awdal region, southern half of Gebiley district and southwestern parts of Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Similarly heavy rain is likely over the southern border areas of Hargeisa and Owdweyne district in Togdheer region. The rains in some of these areas is likely to be intense leading up to up to 200 mm by the end of the week. It is important to also note that such intense rains are also likely over some isolated areas within the middle portions of Shabelle River catchment in Ethiopia. Moderate rainfall between 50 and 100 mm is likely over the following most parts of Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region, southern halves of both Baki and Borama districts in Awdal region, Sheikh and western parts of Owdweyne district in Togdheer region, southwestern parts of Baki in Awdal region. Most parts of the northern sections of the middle portions of Shabelle River catchment in Ethiopia are expected to receive such moderate rains. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over vast areas in Togdheer and Bakool regions, northern half of Awdal region, northern ranges areas in Sanaag region, central parts of Sool region, and Galkacyo district in Mudug region. Isolated rains over Hiraan, Bay, Gedo, Middle Juba and Lower Juba regions are also likely to cumulate to less than 50.0 mm at the end of the forecast week. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over vast areas in Bari, Nugaal, Mudug, Galgaduud, Banadir, Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle, , Middle Juba, Lower Juba, and Gedo regions and southern parts of Bay region. It is important to note that except for northern ranges in Sanaag region, the coastal parts of the country are likely to remain dry.

Light rainfall is expected over isolated areas in the southern and along the eastern coastal parts of the country with dry conditions likely to prevail elsewhere during the coming week, according to NOAA-NCEP GFS. While ICPAC’s forecast anticipates moderate rainfall of more than 50 mm over the same areas, the rains in first week of December are likely to be light in intensity with reduced moisture influx because of the forecast forward propagation of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) are as follows: Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over isolated areas in Middle Juba region, Badhaadhe and Afamadow districts in Lower Juba region, Dinsoor and Baydhaba districts in Bay region, Dollow, Luuq and Belet Xaawo districts in Gedo region, Marka district in Lower Shabelle region, and in Xudur district in Bakool region. Rains of similar intensity are likely over the eastern coastal areas including Eyl district in Nugaal region, Bandarbeyla, Iskushuban and Caluula district in Bari region. The coastal cloudiness and rains may stretch all the way to Banadir in the first half of the forecast week. The rains over isolated areas in Middle Shabelle region and Dollow district in Gedo region may intensify to moderate amounts (above 50 mm) by the end of the forecast period. It is important to note that some of the areas likely to receive pockets of light to moderate rainfall fall within the catchments of Juba River. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over most areas in the following regions: Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, Sanaag, Mudug, Galgaduud, Hiraan and Middle Shabelle. Similar dry conditions are also likely to prevail over most inland parts of both Bari and Nugaal regions; and in some areas in Kismaayo district in Lower Juba; Saakow district in Middle Juba; Bardheere, Ceel Waaq and Garbahaarey districts in Gedo region; Sablaale, Baraawe, Kurtunwaarey, Qoryooley, Afgooye and Wanla Weyn districts in Lower Shabelle region; Qansadheere district in Bay region;and Waajid, Rab Dhuure, Ceel Barde and Tayeeglow districts in Bakool region.

Moderate cumulative rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is expected over southern parts of Lower Shabelle region particularly Sablaale and Baraawe districts, and the northern coastal parts of Lower Juba region particularly Jamaame district. In some of these southern coastal parts the rains may cumulate to above 100 mm. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is likely over most of the areas in Bay, Bakool and Banadir regions, Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts in Lower Juba region, Jilib district in Middle Juba region, Afgoye and Wanla Weyne in Lower Shabelle region, Garbaharey and Ceel Waaq districts in Gedo region, Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region, Dhuusamarreeb, Cabudwaaq and Ceel Dheer districts in Galgaduud region. Light rains may also be observed in very isolated areas in the following places: Laas Canood district in Sool region, coastal parts of Mudug region at Hobyo district, elevated areas in the northern parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region, and Bossaso district in Bari region. It is important to point such light rainfall is also expected to fall over most parts of the Juba and Shabelle River catchments within Somali and in Ethiopia. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over vast areas in the north including Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool and Sanaag regions in Somaliland, and Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions in Puntland. Dry conditions are also likely over Middle Shabelle region, Galgadud region particularly in Cadaado and Ceel Buur districts, Bulo Burte and Jalalaqsi districts in Hiraan region, Qoryooley and Kurtunwaarey districts in Lower Shbaelle region, Dollow, Luuq and Baardheere districts in Gedo region, Saakow and Bualle districts in Middle Juba region, and Afmadow district in Lower Juba region.

The levels along Juba River have demonstrated notable variations when compared to the long-term mean (LTM) and last year’s El Niño-influenced behaviour. The level at Dollow is 40 cm above high flood risk level (5.00 m) today (11 November 2024) having rose sharply from 4.08 m on 4 November to 5.40 m today. A similar behaviour is expected at Luuq, where the level today is at moderate flood risk level (5.50 m) having rose sharply from 4.20 m on 4 November to 5.50 m today. This increase is occasioned by moderate cumulative rainfall over its catchment in the Ethiopian highlands and light rainfall within Somalia. Moderate rainfall is expected over the Juba River catchment in the second week of November. However, with the further development of La Niña, these rains may be short-lived. Considering the lag effect of previous rains, the light to moderate rainfall forecast over Juba River catchment in Ethiopian Highlands and within Somalia will generate moderate runoff enough to sustain the high river flows at the upper reaches of Juba River within the coming week. While the high flows will be transmitted downstream to Bardheere, Saakow, Bualle and finally to Jilib in the long run, less intense rains are expected in the second half of November 2024. There is therefore SUSTAINED HIGH RIVER FLOWS at Dollow and MODERATE RIVER FLOWS at Luuq with expected rise at Bardheere in the coming week. Although high river flows do not necessarily translate to riverine flooding, day-by-day rainfall and river level monitoring is advised. Notable fluctuations have also been observed along the Shabelle River in recent weeks compared to the LTM, last year’s conditions influenced by El Niño, and even last week. After a slight drop of the high flows on 29 October 2024, the Shabelle River level at Belet Weyne today (7.00 m) is 50 cm above moderate flood risk level (6.50 m) and only 30 cm below high flood risk level (7.30 cm). This behaviour is driven by the occurrence of wet and dry spells in its catchment within Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. The levels today at Bulo Burte (5.35 m) and Jowhar (4.38 m) are still well below flood risk levels. Moderate rainfall is expected over the Shabelle River catchment in the second week of November. However, with further development of La Niña, the rains may be short-lived. Considering the lag effect of previous rains, the light to moderate rainfall forecast over Shabelle River catchment in Ethiopian Highlands and within Somalia will generate moderate runoff enough to sustain the river flows at the upper reaches of Shabelle River within the coming week. While the high flows will be transmitted downstream to Bulo Burte, Jalalaqsi, Jowhar and finally to Balcad in the long run, less intense rains are expected in the second half of November 2024. There is therefore SUSTAINED MODERATE RIVER FLOWS at Belet Weyne with expected rise at Bulo Burte in the coming week. Although high river flows do not necessarily translate to riverine flooding, day-by-day rainfall and river level monitoring is advised.

According to ICPAC, the October-November-December forecast indicates a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall driven by La Niña conditions. Additionally, there is a high probability of a delayed onset of rains in the southern and central parts of the country. These challenges are further compounded by above-normal temperatures, which, combined with below-normal rainfall, are expected to lead to a severe loss of soil moisture due to increased evapotranspiration. This will have serious implications for crop and fodder production, particularly in regions reliant on rainfed agriculture and pastoralist activities. Without adequate moisture retention, soil conditions will worsen, directly impacting food and fodder availability for both human and livestock populations. While it is acknowledged that there are inherent uncertainties associated with seasonal forecasting, this uncertainty should not be an excuse for inaction. Instead, the uncertainties must be met with flexibility and preparedness, ensuring that proactive steps are taken to safeguard communities and sectors at risk

Based on the seasonal forecast, the onset of Deyr rains is expected over Puntland and southmost parts of the country. According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, moderate rainfall expected over central parts of Somaliland, light rains over isolated areas in Puntland and dry conditions over Central and Southern parts of the Country. The spatial spread of the forecast rainfall conditions are as follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50.0 and 100.0 mm is forecast over northern parts of both Gebiley and Hargeisa districts spreading outwards particularly at the districts’ border areas. Light rainfall of less than 50.0 mm is expected in the rest of the areas in Gebiley district and northern parts of Hargesisa district; Borama district in Awdal region; Sheikh district in Togdheer region; isolated areas in northern Sanaag particularly around Ceerigaabo; southern parts of both Qardho and Bandarbeyla districts in Bari region; isolated areas in Burtinle and Eyl districts in Nugaal region and coastal parts of both Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts in Lower Juba region. There are also chances of light rains in very isolated areas in Sool and Mudug regions and Dhuusamarreeb district in Galgaduud region. Dry conditions are likely over rest of the inland areas of the country including most places over Gedo, Middle Juba, Lower Juba, Bay, Bakool, Middle Shabelle and Hiraan regions. Similar conditions are likely over most parts of the Juba and Shabelle River catchments within Somali and across in Ethiopia.

Based on the seasonal forecast, the third week of October signals the onset of Deyr rains over much of the country with general southwards spread from Somaliland. According to NOAA-NCEP GFS the previous rains and cloudiness over the north is forecast to spread southwards from Somaliland and parts of Puntland with the southward migration of the ITCZ to the central regions leading up to moderate amounts of about 50 mm. However, this southward spread is expected to weaken thereby leading to only light rains and dry conditions further south particularly over inland areas. The spatial spread of the forecast rainfall conditions are as follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50.0 and 100.0 mm is likely to to spread southwards this coming week to some isolated parts of the following central regions: Galgaduud, Mudug, Hiraan and Bakool. Moderate rains are also likely over some areas in within the Shabelle and Juba River catchments in Ethiopia. Light rainfall of less than 50.0 mm is expected over other areas in the central parts of the country including Galgaduud, Mudug, Hiraan and Bakool regions. Light rains are also likely over vast areas within the Shabelle and Juba River catchments in Ethiopia. The cloudiness over Bakool is likely to spread further leading to light rains over Luuq and Garbahaarey districts in Gedo region and Baidoa district in Bay region. Light coastal rains are likely over Lower Juba and Middle Juba regions. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over with the inland areas in southern regions including over Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle regions, Doolow, Belet Xaawo, Baardheere districts in Gedo region, Qansax Dheere, Dinsoor and Buur Hakaba districts in Bay region.

Seasonal rainfall is critical to lives and livelihoods within the Horn of Africa drylands (HAD), but it is highly variable in space and time. The main HAD rainfall seasons are typically defined as March–May (MAM) and October–December (OND). However, these 3-month periods are only generalized definitions of seasonality across the HAD, and local experience of rainfall may depart from these substantially. Here, we use daily rain gauge data with a duration of at least 10 years from 69 stations across the drylands of Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia to locally delineate key rainfall seasons. By calculating local seasonal rainfall timings, totals, and extremes, we obtain more accurate estimates of the spatial variability in rainfall delivery across the HAD, as well as climatological patterns. Results show high spatial variability in season onset, cessation, and length across the region, indicating that a homogenous classification of rainfall seasons across the HAD (e.g., MAM and OND) is inadequate for representing local rainfall characteristics. Our results show that the “long rains” season is not significantly longer than the “short rains” season over the period of study. This could be related to the previously documented decline of the “long rains” seasonal totals over recent decades. Several rainfall metrics also vary spatially between seasons, and the rainfall on the most extreme days can accumulate to double the local mean seasonal total. The locally defined rainfall seasons better capture the bulk of the rainfall during the season, giving improved characterization of rainfall metrics, consistent with the aim of a better understanding of rainfall impacts on local communities.

10 September 2024, Mogadishu, Somalia – The National Climate Co-Production, Application and Action Planning (NCCAAP), convened a forum on the DEYR 2024 Season. The forum deliberated on the critical climate forecast of below-normal rainfall, a delayed onset of rains, and the impacts of higher-than-normal temperatures in Somalia. The forum brought together climate scientists, decision-makers, and representatives from key sectors, including agriculture, water resources, disaster risk management, and humanitarian organizations, to assess the implications of these projections and plan anticipatory actions to mitigate the forecasted conditions.

This flood advisory is applicable to Hirshabelle – Belet Weyne, Bulo Burte, Jalalaqsi, Jowhar, Balcad districts and the surrounding areas. Even with the absence of rains in Somalia and eastern parts of Ethiopia, the continued downflow of water from the upper catchments in central portions of Ethiopian Highlands has led to a sustained rise in the levels along the Shabelle river. Due to the distance of flow, the river system has taken more than a month to respond to the rains observed in the central parts of Ethiopian Highlands. After the river level at Belet Weyne steadily dropped from the bankful level (8.30 m) on 24 May 2024, a slow upward trend began on 11 July 2024. The river level consistently rose thereafter but relatively stable and below the moderate flood risk level in July, and only crossing the moderate flood risk level on 8 August 2024. In the last 48 hours, the river at Belet Weyne has approached its critical zone with today’s level being 10 cm above high flood risk threshold (7.30 m) posing high risk of flooding. This signals a need for close monitoring and potential flood preparedness particularly at vulnerable breakage points. As expected, a similar pattern has been observed downstream at Bulo Burte where the river level began a consistent rise from a low of 2.63 m on 14 July 2024 to 6.52 m today (24 August 2024) which is 2 cm above moderate flood risk level (6.50 m). About the same time (13 July 2024), the level at Jowhar also observed a steady rise which has however been stable in the last week with today’s level being 22 cm below moderate flood risk level (5.00 m). The reported flood episodes at Jowhar and Balcad are therefore occasioned by river breakages and not overbank spillage. Nonetheless, the floods at Balcad are reported to have affected 27 villages with approximately 10,000 people in need of emergency relief in terms of shelter, WASH, health and nutrition support. Considering the lag-effect of the observed rains in central parts of Ethiopian Highlands in the last one month and the light rains to dry conditions forecast over the catchment in both Somalia and Ethiopia, the river levels are expected to rise further but not to bankful levels in the coming week. There is therefore an EMERGING HIGH RIVERINE FLOODING RISK AT BELET WEYNE and MODERATE RIVERINE FLOODING RISK DOWNSTREAM AT BULO BURTE, and low overbank flooding risk downstream at Jalalaqsi, Jowhar and Balcad, but continued episodes of breakage driven flooding at Jowhar and Balcad.

The Food and Agriculture Organization’s Somalia Water and Land Information Management (FAO SWALIM) Project, has finalized the analysis and mapping of the river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle rivers using very high resolution satellite imagery. Breakages identified in the map have been classified into five categories; Open, Overflow, Canal Breakage and Canal Intake Flooding and Closed with sandbags. A legend/Key for further explanation of the different types of breakages is provided. A long the Shabelle river, a total of 171 Open points, 2 Canal Breakages, 51 Canal flooding points, 323 Overflow points and 17 points closed with sandbags have been identified while 104 Open points, 1 Canal Breakage, 16 Canal flooding points, 83 Overflow points and 1 point closed with sandbags have been identified. Several other points, which are either potential or temporarily closed with sandbags, have also been identified. There is a need to close the open points and reinforce areas where there are weak river embankments to avoid loss of lives and livelihoods during the upcoming Deyr season.

This week marks the end of the Gu rains across the project area, ushering in the Hagaa season. The forecasted dry conditions may benefit agropastoral activities such as weeding in the Awdal region, which includes Baki and Borama districts. Here, above-normal Hagaa conditions are expected to maintain soil moisture, supporting continued crop and fodder production. However, the anticipated hot and dry air mass over the northern parts of the project area this coming week may lead to severe evapotranspiration, posing significant challenges to agropastoral activities. As we transition into the Hagaa season, it is crucial to implement measures for water conservation and the preservation of existing crops and fodder.

Several key findings have been obtained following a review of the 2024 Gu (March-April-May) rains and forecast of Hagaa (June-July-August) season: The heaviest cumulative rainfall was observed in Hiraan region (408.2 mm at Belet Weyne) and Woqooyi Galbeed region (477.0 mm at Gumburaha station); with the least rainfall observed over Puntland. There was more than 3 weeks-long dry spell in all the stations in the country with even longer than two months over some stations in Puntland. The earliest rains (in March) of equal or more than 20 mm per day was observed in some stations in Somaliland with no single station in South and Central Somalia and Puntland that received daily rains of such intensity in the same month. Based on the adopted definition of onset, there was a staggered start to the rainy season across the stations with the earliest onset observed in Qansadhere in Bay region on March 24, 2024, and the latest onset in Gacan-libaah in Togdheer region on May 3, 2024. Over the Juba and Shabelle River Catchments, the above normal rains were evenly spread with less consecutive rainy days and therefore moderate flood magnitude. However, the close to double the LTM rains observed at Doolow (117.5 mm) on 07-May-24, and the more than double the average rainfall at Belet Weyne resulted in to floods, displacing 7,100 families in Belet Weyne town. On a positive note, the rains observed in Gu across most other parts of the country were beneficial to agropastoral livelihoods in many aspects including favorable soil moisture conditions for crop and fodder production, and replenishment of surface and ground water sources. The more than a month-long dry spell within the season however posed a serious threat to the survival of crops and water retention in both open, shallow and groundwater sources. According to IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC), wetter than usual conditions are expected over few areas in north-western and southern coastal parts of the country with rest of the country remaining usually dry over the Hagaa season. According to Climate Prediction Centre (CPC), there is a 65 % chance that the present ENSO-neutral conditions will favor the development of La Niña later in July-September. Depending on the evolution of other drivers including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), this may drive below normal Deyr 2024 conditions over Somalia. The below normal rainfall conditions associated with the even better likelihood (85 %) of La Niña persisting into November-December-January may trigger a multi-season drought with a potential reversal of the currently achieved agropastoral gains. This bulletin presents both qualitative and quantitative review of the temporal and spatial variation of the observed, and verification of the forecast Gu rainfall amount and anomaly, length of wet and dry spells, and onset dates. It also reviews the experienced (Gu) and current (Hagaa) and long term projected (Deyr) weather impacts on livelihoods over Somalia.