Light rainfall is expected over most parts of Somalia with moderate rains over isolated areas in northeastern and dry conditions over southwestern parts of the country during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is likely over Bari region particularly Iskushuban district, southern parts of Calulla district, eastern parts of Qandala district and southern parts of Bandarbeyle district. Moderate rains are also expected in isolated areas in the northwestern part of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region and over the areas on the border between Garowe and Eyl districts in Nugaal region. In the central regions, rains of similar amounts are expected over Cadale district in Middle Shabelle region, southern parts of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region, Qoryooley district and eastern parts of Kurtunwaarey and Baarawe districts in Lower Shabelle region. Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is expected over several areas in the Country with a tendency towards moderate over eastern parts of Bari region, northern parts of Sanaag region, Garowe and Eyl districts in Nugaal region, Ceel District in Galgaduud region, Cadale and Adan Yabaal districts in Middle Shabelle region, and several areas in Lower Shabelle region. Light rains are also expected over Central BeletWeyne district and Jalalaqsi district in Hiraan region. Dry conditions are expected in the southwestern parts of the country particularly over Gedo, Bakool and some parts of Hiraan regions including areas at their border with Bay region. Dry conditions are also likely in Mudug region particularly over Galdogob district, Gaalkacyo district and its border with Hobyo district. In Awdal region, dry conditions are expected over the northern parts of Zeylac and Lughaye districts. Similar conditions are likely over eastern part of Berbera in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Areas in the coastal strip of Bossaso, Qandala and Calulla districts in Bari region area also likely to remain dry. Moderate temperatures of between 24°C and 28°C are expected over several areas in the southern and northeastern parts of the country. Temperatures as low as 20°C are likely over some areas in the southern parts of Aw Woqooyi Galbeed regions, Sheikh district in northern Togdheer region and Ceerigaabo in Sanaag region and northern parts of Qandala district in Bari region. High temperatures of between 28°C and 32°C are expected in in Hiraan, Galgaduud, mudug, Nugaal, and Sool regions, southern and eastern parts of Bari region, and northern parts of both Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed regions. Similar temperatures copnditions are also likely over Dollow and Luuq districts in Gedo region. Temperatures as high as 36°C are likely over eastern parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region.

For close to two weeks, Belet Weyne town and its surrounding areas have witnessed widespread and devastating floods occasioned by the Shabelle River bursting its banks on the 9th May 2023. The river has remained at a bankful height of 8.30 meters up to the current date of May 22nd. The widespread flooding has resulted to property damage, and population displacement. Over the last two days, the flood water has begun slowly receding from Belet Weyne town and the surrounding areas back into the river, and progressively flow downstream. Subsequently, the river level at Bulo Burte has steadily risen, with today’s (22nd May) level just 13 cm below the high flood risk level. The river level at Jowhar has stagnated below moderate flood risk level (5.0 m) since the beginning of the Gu rain season. Today’s level is 3.75 m and is exactly equal to its normal mark in this season. Although the loss of flood water through overbank spillage between Belet Weyne and Bulo Burte explains the delay in Jowhar river level rise, it is expected that the high river levels at Bulo Burte will be transmitted to Jowhar and eventually to Balcad within the coming week. No rains have been reported in the last week over South Central Somalia including the entire stretch of Shabelle River from Belet Weyne to Balcad. Although light rains to dry conditions are predicted over the coming week, the steady rise in river levels at Bulo Burte poses a HIGH-RISK OF FLOODING in the town and the adjacent areas. A MODERATE RISK OF FLOODING is foreseen in Jowhar and the adjacent areas over the same period. Given the expected loss of water to overbank spillage and breakages along the Shabelle river channel, the risk of flooding reduces as the waters flow downstream to Balcad. Therefore, as the flood water recedes back to the river, residents of Belet Weyne are urged to beware of crocodiles that could have escaped the river on to the floodplains. They should also beware of the risks of drowning. As the residents prepare to relocate back to the previously flooded areas, housing structures need to be assessed for safety. In order to prevent water borne diseases, proper hygiene including disinfection measures such as chlorination of water sources should be adopted. The residents of Bulo Burte should prepare for potential evacuation by identifying safe routes to high grounds and gathering essential items, inform family, friends, and neighbors about the flood warning, secure property and consider assembling an emergency kit with necessary supplies. Residents are also strongly recommended to stay informed through regular bulletin updates at specified times, monitor thorough radio, television and internet for flood warnings. Any open or weak river embankments within Jowhar should be closed and reinforced.

According to the weekly forecast, moderate to heavy rainfall is expected over several areas in central and northwestern parts of Somalia with light rains over southern and northeastern parts during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Very heavy rainfall of more than 150 mm is likely to be observed over Sablaale and Baraawe districts in Lower Shabelle Region; western parts of Ceel Buur district and central parts of Dhuusamarreeb district in Galgaduud Region; Xarardheere district, northern parts of Hobyo district, eastern parts of Gaalkacyo district and western parts of Jariiban district in Mudug region. Rains of similar amounts are also predicted over Sheikh district in the northern part of Togdheer region and the northern border between Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed. Very heavy rains which may exceed 200 mm are expected over the northern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region. Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected over several areas in Mudug and Galgaduud regions; central parts of Hiraan region, the border between Afmadow, Kismaayo and Jamaame districts in Lower Juba region; Jilib district in Middle Juba region; coastal areas of Lower Shabelle region, the central areas of Adan Yabaal district and the border between Balcad and Cadale districts in Middle Shabelle region. Rainfall of similar amounts is likely over the northern part of Togdheer region; the northern border between Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed; southern parts of Awdal region; western parts of Ceel Afweyn and northern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is predicted over several areas in Nugaal region, central and northern parts of Awdal region, central and southern parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region, northern and southern parts of Togdheer region, central and western parts of Sanaag region, central and northern parts of Sool region, and some areas in the central parts of Bari region. Comparatively moderate rainfall is also expected over Galdogob district, western parts of Gaalkacyo district, northern parts of Jariiban district and western parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region, eastern parts of Galgaduud region, central and northern parts of Hiraan region, Balcad , Cadale and Adan Yabaal districts in Middle Shabelle region, near-coastal parts of the entire Lower Shabelle region, Buáale district in Middle Juba and Kismaayo, Jilib and eastern parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several areas in Bari region, eastern parts of Sanaag region, northern parts of both Woqooyi and Awdal regions, Bay region, central and eastern parts of Bakool region, southwestern parts of Hiraan region and its entire border with Middle Shabelle region, Wanla Weyn in Lower Shabelle region. In the south, similar light rains are expected over western Afmadow in Lower Juba, Saakow in Middle Juba region, northern Bardheere in Gedo region. Dry conditions are expected in the southwestern parts of the country particularly Gedo region, Waajid, Ran Dhuure, western parts of Ceel Barde and southern parts of Tayeeglow districts in Bakool region, and the coastal areas of Bari region. Moderate temperatures of between 24°C and 28°C are expected over several areas in the southern and northern parts of the country. Temperatures as low as 20°C are likely over some areas in the southern parts of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed regions, Sheikh district in northern Togdheer region and Ceerigaabo in Sanaag region. High temperatures of between 28°C and 32°C are expected in the central regions and some parts in the south and northern parts of the country.

Moderate to heavy rainfall expected over isolated parts of northern Somalia with light rains over central and dry conditions over southwestern parts of the country during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Very heavy rainfall of between 150 m and 200 mm is likely over central and northern parts of Awdal region, southern parts of Ceerigaabo district and western parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region, northern parts of Caynabo district in Sool region, Buuhoodle district in Togdheer region, and central parts of Bari region. Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is anticipated over several areas in Awdal region; northern parts of both Gebiley and Hargeiya districts in Woqooyi Galbeed; northern and southern parts of Togdheer region; several areas in Sool region; several areas in Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region; northern parts of Qardho district, western parts of Iskushuban district, southern parts of Qandala district and southwestern parts of Caluula district in Bari region; central Garowe district, southern Eyl district and southern parts of Burtinle district in Nugaal region; and Galdogob district in Mudug region. Moderate rainfall of between 50 and 100 mm is likely over southern Hargeisa in Woqooyi Galbeed region; Owdweyne in Togdheer region; northern parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region; Caluula district and southern parts of Qardho district in Bari region; northern parts of both Garowe and Eyl district and western parts of Burtinle district in Nugaal region; Jariiban and Garowe districts and southern parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region; and northern parts of Cabudwaaq in Galgaduud region. Similar moderate rainfall is likely over several areas in Middle Shabelle and Lower Shabelle regions. SOMALIA WEEKLY WEATHER FORECAST Valid From 24th to 30th May 2023 Moderate to heavy rainfall expected over isolated parts of northern Somalia with light rains over central and dry conditions over southwestern parts of the country. Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is expected over several areas in Lower Juba region, Middel Juba region, Bay region, eastern parts of Bakool region, Hiraan region, Galgaduud region, Hobyo district in Mudug region, and the coastal areas of Bari region and Berbera district in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Dry conditions are expected in the southwestern parts of the country particularly over Gedo region, Ran Dhuure and Waajid districts and southern parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool region, and western parts of Saakow district in Middel Juba region. Moderate temperatures of between 24°C and 28°C are expected over several areas in the southern and northern parts of the country. Temperatures as low as 20°C are likely over some areas in the southern parts of Awdal region, southern parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region, Sheikh district in northern Togdheer region, several areas in central Sanaag region (Ceerigaabo) and northern parts of Qandala district in Bari region. The coldest conditions (16°C to 20°C) are forecast over Erigavo in Sanaag region. High temperatures of between 28°C and 32°C are expected in in Hiraan, Galgaduud, mudug, and the coastal areas in the northern part of the country. Similar hot conditions are also likely over Dollow and Luuq districts in Gedo region.

There is a High Risk of Flooding along the Shabelle River at Belet Weyne Moderate rains received in Shabelle River catchment in the Ethiopian highlands and light rains observed in the areas around the Ethiopian borderhave sustained a steady rise in levels along Shabelle River. In the last four days, 40.5 mm of cumulative rainfall has been received at Belet Weyne; 22 mm on 5th, 8.5 mm on 6th and 10 mm on 8th May 2023. The river levels at Belet Weyne steadily increased from 6.38m on 26th April to 7.90m as reported today (8th May 2023). Today’s level is 60 cm above the high flood risk level (7.30 m) and just 40 cm below the bank full (8.30m) threshold. However, at 6.12 m and 3.75 m, the levels at Bulo Burti and Jowhar are 38 cm and 1.25 m below their moderate flood risk thresholds. Since 2nd May 2023 when the high flood risk level was reached at Belet Weyne, any increment in run off occasioned by the moderate rains across the Ethiopian border can potentially lead to river flooding. The information coming from the field indicates that the river flow is hitting the deck of two bridges in Belet Weyne with very high likelihood of river overflowing the banks and causing flooding that might affect Belet Weyne town and its surrounding areas. The Hirshabelle State, Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation is reported to be distributing pre-positioned sandbags to the vulnerable sites which have begun seeping the water into the town. Although these efforts may mitigate the effects of the flooding, population living in Belet Weyne town and its surrounding areas must still take precautionary measures. The rainfall forecast for the next three days (8th – 10th May) indicates light cumulative rain of about 10 mm over Belet Weyne and of about 20 mm over its catchment in the Ethiopian Highlands. Although there is high risk of flooding along Shabelle River at Belet Weyne currently, river levels are expected to stabilize to below moderate flood risk levels in the coming days given the above light to moderate forecast rainfall conditions.

According to the weekly forecast, moderate to heavy rainfall is expected over several areas in northeastern parts of the country, with light rains over central and southern parts during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Very heavy rainfall of more than 150 mm is likely to be observed over some areas in Nugal and Bari regions in the northeastern parts of the country. In Bari region, these very heavy rains are likely over the border areas of eastern Qandala and Iskushuban districts and over Bandarbeyla district. In Nugaal region, such very heavy rains are expected over Eyl district and southeastern parts of Garowe district. Over Eyl district, the rains could actually exceed 200mm in areas like Dihlil and Bacad Weyne. Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected over some areas in Nugal and Bari regions in the northeastern parts of the country. Several areas in Bandarbeyla and some areas in eastern parts of Qandala district and northern and eastern parts of Iskushuban, and southern parts of Caluula district in Bari region will observe such heavy rainfall. Similarly heavy rainfall is likely over several areas in Eyl district and eastern parts of Garowe district in Nugaal region. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is likely over all other areas in Bari region except Bossaso district and over all areas in Nugaal region except Burtinle district. Moderate rainfall is also expected over Buhoodle district and southern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region, south most parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region, eastern parts of Laas Canood and Taleex districts in Sool region, Galdogob district and western parts of Garowe district, and northern parts of Jariiban district in Mudug region. In the central parts of the country, moderate rains are expected in the southern parts of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region and Cadale district in Middle Shabelle region. Rainfall of similar amount is expected over isolated areas in Qoryooley district, Kurtunwaarey district, and southwestern parts of Sablaale district in Lower Sheballe. Similarly moderate rains are likely over northern parts of Jilib district and southern parts of Buáale district, northeastern parts of Kismaayo district and southern parts of Badhaadhe district in Lower Juba region. Light rains of less than 50 mm is expected over several areas in the following regions: Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Galgaduud, Mudug, Sool and Togdheer. Light rainfall is also anticipated over Saakow district and northern parts of Buáale district in Middle Juba region, northeastern parts of Baardheere district in Gedo region, south, central and eastern parts of Bay region, and Belet Weyne and Jalalaqsi districts in Hiraan region. In the northern parts of the country, similarly light rainfall is expected over southern and southeastern parts of Sanaag region, northern parts of Bossaso, Qandala and Caluula districts in Bari region, southern parts of Hargeisa and Gebiley districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region, and southern parts of Baki and Borama districts in Awdal region. Dry conditions are expected in the southwestern parts of the country including Bakool region and several areas in Gedo and Hiraan regions, and Ceel Buur district in Galgaduud region. Dry conditions are also likely in the north most parts of the country particularly over Zeylac and Lughaye districts and northern parts of Baki district in Awdal region, Berbera district in Woqooyi Galbeed region, and Sheikh district in Togdheer region. Several areas in the western and northern parts of Sanaag region, as well as the northern coastal strip in Bari region, are also likely to remain dry. Moderate temperatures of between 24°C and 28°C are expected over several areas in the southern and northeastern parts of the country. Temperatures as low as 20°C are likely over some areas in the southern parts of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed regions, Sheikh district in northern Togdheer region and Ceerigaabo in Sanaag region and northern parts of Qandala. High temperatures of between 28°C and 32°C are expected in the central regions and northwestern parts of the country.

Since bursting its banks on May 9th, 2023, the Shabelle River’s water level at Belet Weyne (figure 1) has remained at a bankful height of 8.30 meters up to the current date of May 15th. Over the past week Belet Weyne town and its surrounding regions, has witnessed widespread and devastating floods (map 1). These floods have resulted in the destruction of homes, crops, and roads, as well as the displacement of numerous families and have impacted heavily on the transportation network. The river levels at Bulo Burti (figure 2), located about 100 km downstream of Belet Weyne, have shown a consistent increase from 5.74 meters on May 5th to 6.66 meters as of today, May 15th, 2023. The current reading at Bulo Burti (6.66 metres) surpasses the moderate flood risk threshold (put at 6.50 metres) by 16 centimetres . In contrast, at Jowhar, the reading today (3.75 metres) is more than 1 metre below the moderate risk level. However, it is anticipated that the water level at Bulo Burti will reach the high flood risk level in approximately two days, as the flood wave continues its downstream movement from Belet Weyne. Nevertheless, the presence of multiple river breakages downstream of Belet Weyne could mean that some water may escape the channel before reaching Bulo Burti. This scenario reduces the magnitude of flooding in the town compared to the situation witnessed in Belet Weyne. It is important to note that the floodplains located upstream of Bulo Burti remain highly susceptible to flooding. No rainfall has been reported in both Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti over the past week. The weather forecast for the next three days, from May 15th to 17th, 2023, predicts dry conditions across Somalia. Only a light cumulative rainfall of approximately 10 mm is expected much farther upstream in the Ethiopian Highlands, within the Shabelle River catchment area. Despite the absence of recent rainfall, flooding persists in Belet Weyne. There still remains a high risk of flooding in Bulo Burti and the surrounding floodplains. It is crucial for communities residing near riverbanks and low-lying areas to exercise utmost caution and take all necessary precautions to ensure their safety.

According to the weekly forecast, several areas in southern, central and northwestern parts of Somalia are expected to observe heavy (above 100 mm) to very heavy (above 150 mm) cumulative rainfall during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Very heavy rainfall of more than 150 mm is expected over several areas in the central part of Lower Shabelle region including Kurtunwaarey, Qoryooley and Afgooye districts. Similarly heavy rainfall is likely over several areas in the southern parts of Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed. Very heavy rainfall is also expected over isolated areas in northeastern parts of Ceel Barde district in Bakool region, southern parts of Bulo Burti district in Hiraan region, southern border between Ceel Afweyn and Ceerigabo districts in Sanaag region, Sheikh district in Togdheer region, and Baki district in Awdal region. The rains over the border between Gebiley and Hargeisa may actually exceed 200 mm. Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected in several areas of central Somalia including the entire Lower Shabelle region, northeastern parts of Baardheere district and isolated areas in Dollow and Luuq districts in Gedo region, Buur Hakaba district in Bay region, Hudur and Tayeeglow districts in Bakool region, eastern parts of Jilib district in Middle Juba region, western parts of all Belet Weyne, Bulo Burti and Jalalaqsi districts in Hiraan region, and southern parts of Cabudwaaq and Dhuusamarreeb districts in Galgaduud region. Similarly heavy rainfall is likely over southern parts of Ceerigaabo district and southern and western parts of Ceel Afweyn district in Sanaag region, entire Caynabo district in Sool region, central parts of both Owdweyne and Burco district in Togdheer region, southern parts of Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed, Baki, Borama and Lughaye districts in Awdal region. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is expected over several areas in Awdal region, Woqooyi Galbeed region, Togdheer region, western and central parts of Sanaag and Sool regions. Rainfall of equal amount is likely over Badhaadhe, Kismaayo and Jamaame districts and eastern parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, Saakow district, western parts of Jilib district and eastern parts of Buáale district in Middle Juba region, Dollow and Luuq districts and northeastern parts of Baardheere district in Gedo region, Diinsoor, Qansax Dheere and Baydhaba districts in Bay region, Middle Shabelle region. Comparable rainfall is expected over Waajid and Rab Dhuure districts and western parts of Ceel Barde district in Bakool region, eastern parts of all Belet Weyne, Bulo Burti and Jalalaqsi districts in Hiraan region, Cabudwaaq and Cadaado districts, western parts of Dhuusamarreeb district and southern parts of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region and Galdogob district in mudug region. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several areas in Mudug and Nugaal region, western parts of Bari region and eastern parts of both Sanaag and Sool regions. Dry conditions are expected in northern and eastern parts of Bari region including the coastal areas in Bandarbeyla, Iskushuban, Caluula, Qandala and Bossaso districts. High temperatures of between 28°C and 32°Care expected in southern and central parts of the country, and moderate temperatures of between 24°C and 28°C in the northern parts

The weekly outlook shows that most parts of the country are expected to receive less than 50 mm of cumulative rainfall during the forecast period (Map 1). The spread of the cumulative rainfall amounts are as follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm expected over isolated areas in the north-western and southern parts of the country. The areas in the northwestern part of the country are: northern Zeylac district, central Baki district and northwestern Hargeisa district. Areas in the southern parts of the country are: Belet Xaawo, Ceel Waaq districts, southwestern parts of Baardheere district, northern Jilib district and southern Buáale district, southeastern Afmadow district central parts of Kismayo and Badhaadhe districts. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several parts of Awdal, Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Gedo, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle and Hiraan regions. Rains of similar intensity are expected over central and northern Woqqoyi Galbeed, northern Togdheer region, northern border between Sanaag and Bari regions, central and western Galgaduud region, eastern Bakool region, southern Bay region, and the coastal strip of Mudug region. Dry conditions are expected in central parts of the country including most areas in Togdheer, Sool, Sannag, Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions. Similar conditions are expected over northern and southern parts of Galgaduud region, central areas of Hiraan region, western Bakool region, and northern Gedo region, central and northern Bay region. Moderate temperatures of between 20°C and 32°Care expected over most parts of Somalia. However, cold conditions with temperatures less than 20°C are expected over isolated areas in northern parts of the country particularly the southern Awdal-Woqooyi Galbeed regional border, northwestern Togdheer region, and isolated areas in northern Sanaag and Bari regions.

According to the weekly forecast, several areas in central and southern Somalia are expected to receive moderate rainfall of over 50 mm of cumulative rainfall during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts are as follows: Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected in some parts of southern Somalia including Gedo, Lower Juba, Upper Juba, Lower Shabelle and Bay regions. In the Gedo region, the areas include Ceel Waaq district, northern Baardheere, and the southern border between Garbahaarey and Luuq regions. In Middle Juba region, the areas include northern parts of Saakow district, central parts of Buáale district and the northern parts of Jilib district. Areas included in the Lower Juba region are southern and eastern parts of Afmadow district and central and northern parts of Kismayo district. Areas in western part of Diinsoor district and southern parts of Buur Hakaba in Bay region and western parts of Sablaale in Lower Shabelle region, and coastal parts of Hobyo and Xarardheere districts in Muduug region are also likely to observe rains of similar amounts. Very heavy rainfall of above 150 mm is likely in isolated areas in southern Somalia and particularly over central parts of Gedo region Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is expected over several areas in central and southern Somalia including; Gedo, Lower Juba, Upper Juba, Lower Shabelle and Bay regions, southern and eastern parts of Hiraan region, southern parts of Lower Shabelle region, and northern parts of Awdal region. Some areas in Bakool region and Galgaduud region, coastal areas in Muduug region, Sanaag region and northern parts of Bari region are also forecast to receive similar amounts of rainfall. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several parts of Bakool, Hiraan region, Middle Juba and Galgaduud, Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed regions. Similar rains are expected over central western parts of Sanaag region, northern parts of Togdheer region, northwestern parts of Sool region, and northwestern part of Bari region. Dry conditions are expected in several areas of the central and northern Somalia including non-coastal areas of Muduug, Nugaal, Bari and Sool regions. Similar dry conditions are forecast over several areas in central and eastern parts of Sanaag region, central and southern parts of Togdheer region, and some areas in the southwestern parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region. Moderate temperatures of between 20°C and 32°C are expected over most parts of Somalia. However, cold conditions with temperatures less than 20°C are expected over very isolated areas in northern Sanaag and Bari regions.

According to the weekly forecast, several areas in southern Somalia are expected to observe moderate (above 50 mm) to heavy (above 100 mm) cumulative rainfall during the forecast period. The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected in some areas of southern Somalia including Ceel Waaq district and eastern parts of Bardheere district in Gedo region, eastern parts of Diinsoor district in Bay region, northern parts of Saakow district, southern parts of Buáale district and northern parts of Jilib district in Middle Juba region, and western parts of Jamaame district, southeastern parts of Afmadow district, north parts of Kismaayo and most parts of Badhaadhe district in Lower Juba region. Very heavy isolated rainfall of above 150 mm is likely in some of the above areas particularly over the eastern parts of Bardheere district in Gedo region and southeastern parts of Bu’aale district in Middle Juba region. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is expected over Middle Juba region, several areas in central and southern Gedo, eastern, southern and western Lower Juba region, central and western parts of Bay region, western and eastern coastal parts of Lower Shabelle region, and southwestern parts of Middle Shabelle region. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, Belet Xaawo, Garbahaarey, Luuq and Dollow districts in Gedo region, several parts of Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, and Bay regions, Rab Dhuure and Waajid districts, western parts of Xudur district and southern parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool region, Bulo Burti district in Hiraan region, southern parts of Ceel Buur district, northern parts of Ceel Dheer district and the coastal strips of Galgaduud region and southern Mudug region. Similar moderate rains are also expected over northern parts of Hargeisa district Woqooyi Galbeed region, Sheikh district and northern parts of Owdweyne and Burco districts in Togdheer region. Dry conditions are expected in central and northern parts of the country including Bari, Nugaal and Sool regions, several areas in Awdal, Sanaag, central and southern parts of Togdheer region, northern and southern parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region, and vast non-coastal parts of Mudug region. Moderate temperatures of between 24 oC and 28 oC are expected in north and eastern parts of the country with cold conditions (temperatures less than 20 oC) likely very isolated areas in northern Sanaag and Bari regions. Moderate temperatures of between 28 ℃ and 32 ℃ are expected over central and southern Somalia.

Based on climatology the fourth week of March marks the end of Jilal Season. However this year there has been an early transition into the Gu (April-May-June) long rains season in Somalia. Several parts of the country received moderate rains over the last week with fourteen stations receiving more than 1 mm of rain as is shown in Table 1. The heaviest rains were recorded in Gedo and Bay regions specifically Bardheere (86 mm), Wanle-Wayne (47.3 mm), Luuq (34 mm) and Dollow (23.1 mm). Other stations that recorded over 10 mm of rainfall include Belet Weyne (18 mm) in Hiran, Iskushuban (17 mm) in Bari, Buhoodle (14.7 mm) and Las Anod (10.5 mm) in Sool regions. Continued dry conditions were observed over Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Nugaal, Galgaduud, Bakool, Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba regions. Based on ICPAC’s rainfall forecast for the next seven days (Map 1), it indicates that most parts of the country will receive more than 10 mm of cumulative rainfall. The spread of the cumulative 7 day rainfall amounts are as follows: Light rainfall of between 10 mm and 50 mm are expected over Nugaal, Mudug, Sanaag, southern and eastern Galgaduud, southern parts of Middle Shabelle and Lower Shabelle northern parts of Middle Shabelle, most parts of Gedo and Middle Juba, northern and southeastern parts of Bari, most parts of Sool and central parts of Togdheer and the northern most parts of Woqooyi Galbeed and Awdal. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 150 mm are anticipated over most parts in Lower Juba, Bakool, Hiraan, Woqooyi Galbeed, southeastern Gedo, western parts of Galgaduud, southern Awdal, southern and northern parts of Togdheer and some areas in southwestern and north eastern Bari. Heavy rainfall of over 150 mm anticipated in isolated pockets in the northern Bakool, western Galgaduud, southern Awdal, southwestern and north eastern Bari regions. Moderate temperatures of between 20 °C and 32 °C are expected over most parts of Somalia. However, cold conditions with temperatures less than 20 °C are expected over isolated areas in northern parts of the country particularly the southern parts of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed, northwestern Togdheer, central areas in the northern Sanaag and Bari. The heavy rains received over the last few days on both sides of the Ethiopia-Somali border resulted into a sharp rise in river levels along Juba. In Dollow and Luuq stations, Gedo region, the river rose by over 2.5 m within 24 hours between 18th and 20th March. Dollow recorded 2.94 m increase, from 1.94 m on 18th March to 4.88m on 20th March, surpassing the moderate flood risk level. In Luuq the river level rose from 1.96 m to 4.5 m on 19th and 20th March respectively. The levels have slightly reduced in both stations (4.02 m in Dollow and 4.4 m in Luuq) over the last 24 hours. However, with the current forecast more water is expected from the Ethiopian catchment and within Somalia, posing a moderate risk of floods in the upper reaches of the river. Along Shabelle the river levels are still low, with no immediate risk of flooding. The heavy rains observed over Bardheere (86 mm) have been reported to lead to destruction of property and possible loss of life. Based on climatology, these rains represent a wetter than usual conditions. The observed and forecast wet conditions together with the cold conditions (temperatures less than 20 °C) expected over isolated areas in northern parts of the country particularly the southern parts of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed, northwestern Togdheer, central areas in the northern Sanaag and Bari are likely to lead to partial recharge of surface water sources and vegetation regeneration giving a glimmer of hope for human and livestock survival. However, high temperatures (about 32 °C) that are forecast to succeed the wet conditions may lead to rapid evaporation thereby leaving no soil water to support vegetation regeneration.

Heavy rains received in Gedo region and other areas around the Ethiopian border over the last week resulted to a sharp rise in Juba river levels. Over the last 24 hours Bardheere station recorded heavy rainfall (92 mm) leading to significant flooding in the Bardheere town and surrounding areas. The river levels as reported this morning at Bardhere (9.00 m) and Dollow (5.14 m) surpass the high flood risk threshold for the two stations. These floods are reported to have caused significant destruction of property and farmlands. According to our sources, over the last four days, the floods in Bardheere have caused a loss of 13 lives. The risk of flooding along the entire reach of the Juba river remains high throughout this week, as the flood wave moves downstream. Therefore, communities residing along the Juba riverine areas must exercise extra caution as the water levels continue to rise. Along Shabelle river, levels have started rising gradually, but the risk of flooding remains low in the coming week. The rainfall forecast for the next three days indicates moderate to heavy rains over the Ethiopian highlands and within the Somalia-Ethiopia border. These rains will lead to sustained high river levels along the Juba and a rise in Shabelle river where the levels are currently low. In Bay and Lower Juba regions, isolated heavy rains of up to 150 mm are expected in the next three days and may result to flash floods.

Most parts of the country are expected to receive less than 50 mm of cumulative rainfall during the forecast period (Map 1). The spread of the cumulative rainfall amounts are as follows: Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several parts of Lower and Middle Juba, Gedo, Bay, Bakool, Lower and Middle Shabele, Sanaag, and Togdheer regions, southern and central parts of Hiraan region, central areas of Galgaduud region, and isolated areas in northern Bari region, central and western parts of Sool region. Moderate rains of between 50 mm and 100 mm is predicted over isolated areas in the north-western parts of the country. Such rains are expected in the southern parts of Awdal, central and southern parts of Woqooyi Galbeed, localized areas in western and northern parts of Sanaag region, western parts of Gedo region and southwestern parts of Lower Juba region. Heavy rains of between 100 mm and 150 mm are likely over Isolated pockets in Baki and Borama districts in Awdal region, and southern parts of Gebiley in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Dry conditions are expected in central parts of the country including most areas in Nugaal and Mudug regions, northern areas of Hiraan and Galgaduud regions, southern areas of Bari region and eastern areas of Sool region. Moderate temperatures of between 20 °C and 32 °C are expected over most parts of Somalia. However, cold conditions with temperatures less than 20 °C are expected over isolated areas in northern parts of the country particularly the parts of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sanaag and Bari regions.

FAO-SWALIM, the Somalia Water and Land Information Management, has completed an analysis and mapping project of river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle rivers. The project utilized Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to identify and classify the breakages into four categories: open, canal flooding, overflow, and closed with sandbags. The open breakages are those that are currently open and were observed on the latest VHR image available. The observations reported refer to the latest suitable VHR satellite image available, which is indicated in the online database. The map identified a total of 62 open breakage points, 36 on the Shabelle River and 26 on the Juba River, which require immediate attention. In addition, 15 overflow points and 39 canal flooding points were identified during this season. The Horn of Africa region has experienced five consecutive poor rainy seasons, resulting in severe hydrological drought conditions in Somalia and neighboring countries. The Juba and Shabelle rivers, which have their headwaters in the Ethiopian highlands, have remained near or below the long-term average since the beginning of 2023, negatively impacting agriculture production, domestic and livestock water use for the riverine communities. However, the low river levels provide an opportunity to repair the river breakages and weak embankments before the next rainy season. It is important to note that the methodology used in this analysis, is biased towards remote sensing interpretation, with limited "ground truthing" due to difficulties in accessing the areas. Open breakages may have been omitted or classified as potential in some cases where satellite images were unavailable or not clear due to heavy cloud cover or dense vegetation.

Somalia’s Gu (April-May-June) is the main wet season in the country, and is critical in supporting agricultural activities and replenishing water and pasture. The season begins as early as the second half of March, at the tail end of the Jilal Season, and the rains intensify in April with the onset progressing north eastwards almost mimicking the south-north progression of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) that follows the overhead sun. Gu rainfall cessation occurs in June in most parts of the country, with the north- eastern coastline receiving the least amount of rainfall during this season. According to the recently released Seasonal Climate Forecast issued by IGAD’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), there is a 50% likelihood that below normal rainfall (drier than normal conditions) will be observed over most parts of Somalia as is evidenced by the yellow coloration shown in Map 1. Over the northern parts of Middle Shabelle there is greater likelihood (60%) of observing such dry conditions. In the north eastern part of the country, southern Togdheer and Lower Juba there are equal probabilities of below normal, normal and above normal rains over most areas (denoted by white coloration). The above rainfall conditions will be accompanied by warmer than normal surface temperatures (55% likelihood) over much of the country, with increased chance of up to 70% over the northern areas. Drought analysis using SPI have shown moderate multi- season drought conditions in the southwestern Somalia (Gedo and Juba regions) and severe conditions over Sanaag region. Seasonal climate scientists have observed that the poor forecast 2023 Gu rains are comparable to the forecast conditions of the years 2017 and 2021. However, due to the poor predictability of the Gu rain season, the forecast is expected to have high spatial variability. Further, the rainfall forecasts categories vary over regions; 170 mm and 195 mm thresholds are applicable over Somalia. It is worth noting that this forecast is designed for a regional audience that addresses the rainfall totals summed over the three-month period from March to May 2023.

Most parts of south and central Somalia received light to moderate rains over the last one week. Some of the stations that recorded good rainfall amounts in the past week include Bulo Burti 28mm, Balad 19mm, Bardheere 18mm, Luuq 13.5mm and Jowhar 9mm. Widespread rains were also received in Bay, Middle Juba and Lower Juba regions during the week. In Somaliland and Puntland there has been a reduction in rainfall amounts with most stations recording little or no rains. Most regions in Somaliland and the southern parts of the country have experienced pasture regrowth and replenishment of water catchments, and this has led to a reduction in water and pasture stress. However, more rains with good intensity and distribution are required to bring to an end the current drought conditions as the amounts received are still inadequate to alleviate the condition especially in sustaining pasture and crop growth. The central regions of Nugaal, Muudug, Galgaduud and southern parts of Bari region have not received any significant rains and the drought conditions are worsening by day. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate to heavy rains in the southern regions. The coastal areas of Somaliland and northern Puntland are also expected to receive moderate to heavy rains. Exceptional cumulative rains are foreseen in Awdal especially in areas bordering Djibouti, which may result to flash floods. The central regions and inland areas of Puntland will receive minimal rains during the forecast period. Ethiopian highlands will receive moderate rains during the week in focus. Given the rainfall forecast, the river levels in both Juba and Shebelle are expected to increase slightly towards the end of the week with no risk of flooding.

There was reduced rainfall activities across Somalia over the last one week. Few stations in Somaliland recorded moderate rains, including Las-Dawaco 83.5mm and Dhubato 35mm, while light rains were recorded in Dararweyne 14mm, Lughaye 14mm, Zaila 13mm and Xaji – Salah 12 mm. In Puntland Calulla station recorded 13.4mm. The rest of the country remained either dry or received light showers. As the Deyr season comes to the peak, more rains are required to bring to an end the current drought conditions across Somalia. The rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate rains across the central and southern regions of Somalia. Parts of Bay and Bakool regions will however receive heavy rains, of up to 100mm cumulatively, within the coming week. The northern parts of Bari and Sanaag regions will also receive heavy rains in the coming week. The rains will be more along the coast of Bari, where cumulatively 150—200mm of rains are expected within the next seven days. The risk of flash floods in these areas is high, resulting from the heavy rains. Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togheer, Sool and Nugal regions will be mainly dry over the forecast period. Scattered light showers may however be experienced in few places. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive light rains, while the lower parts, near the Somalia border, will receive moderate rains in the coming week. River levels along Juba and Shabelle continued to decrease over the last one week. Given the rainfall forecast, the levels in both rivers are expected to increase slightly within the coming week with no risk of flooding.

In the last one week most parts of Somaliland and Puntland remained dry with a few stations recording light rains (Bandar Beyla 19mm, Galkacyo 5mm, Balli Dhiddin 2.4 mm). Little or no rains were recorded in Central Somalia during the same period. The Deyr rains however continued in the southern regions. Some of the stations that have recorded significant rains include Belet-Weyne 65mm, Mataban 61mm, Mahas 36mm, Bulo-Burti 36mm, Bandar-Beyla 19mm, Bualle 18mm and Balcad 12mm. The rains received so far provide an immediate relief to water stress, but more rains are required to bring to an end the current drought conditions across Somalia. The rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate rains in most parts of southern Somalia while few pockets of the central areas will receive light showers. Similarly, the Shabelle and Juba upper reaches in Ethiopia will receive moderate rains during the forecast period. Pockets of Nugaal, Sool, Sanaag and the coast of Bari are expected to receive light to moderate rains during the same period. The rest of the country is expected to remain dry. River levels along Juba and Shabelle are currently within the average at this time of the year. Given the rainfall forecast, the levels in both rivers are expected to increase slightly within the coming week with no risk of flooding.

Most parts of south and central Somalia have received moderate rains with good distribution over the last one week. In Bay and Bakool regions heavy rains were recorded in Baidoa recorded 144mm, Dinsoor 103.5mm, Quansadheere 66.4mm, Huddur 45.5mm and El barde 41mm over the last one week. Other places in the region where good rains were reported over the last week are Bulo burti 62mm, Bur Hakabar 50mm, Dollow 44.6mm, and Mataban 40mm. Somaliland and Puntland also continued to receive rains over the last one week, but the amounts were reduced compared the rainfall amounts recorded in the previous two weeks. The ongoing rains have contributed to a reduction of water stress, and pasture generation. However, more rains with good intensity and distribution are required to bring to an end the current drought conditions as the amounts received are still inadequate to alleviate the condition. The rains need to be sustained for long period to sustain pasture and crop growth. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate to heavy rains in most parts of the Juba catchment within Somalia, the lower parts of Galgadud region, and along the Gulf of Aden Coast in Sanaag and Bari regions. The rest of the country is expected to receive scattered light to moderate rains. The Ethiopian highlands will receive heavy rains during the same forecast period. Juba river level has been rising steadily over the last one week, as a result of heavy rains in Ethiopia and within the Somalia. The levels reached high risk levels in Dollow and Bardhere, before starting to go down in the last 2 days. Shabelle river is also high, and above the short term mean. Given the rainfall forecast in the Ethiopian highlands and in Somalia, there is medium risk of flooding in both rivers, especially in sections with weak or open embankments.

The ongoing Karan rains /early kick off of Deyr seasonal rains continued to spread with intensity and in space over the last two weeks in the northern parts of Somalia with some stations recording 50mm to 100mm of cumulative rains. In particular, some of the stations that received good rains in both Puntland and Somaliland include; Las Anod 56mm, Baran 48mm, Burtinle 41mm, Xasbahale 37mm, Aburin 98mm, Dilla 97mm, Quljeed 71mm, Caynabo and Sheikh 48mm. Galckayo, in the central areas, received a total of 56mm while the rest of the country recorded little or no rains. The observed rains have contributed significantly to a reduction of water stress, especially in Hargeisa, Borama and Gebilley districts of Somaliland, but it will take sometime before the ongoing drought situation can be reversed. Other parts of Somaliland remains under severe drought conditions. Equally, immediate relief to water stress was realized in parts of Puntland following the rains; however, more rains with good intensity and distribution are required to improve the current drought conditions. The central and southern regions continue to experience severe drought conditions. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate to heavy rains in Somaliland and Puntland. Most parts of the south and central areas will record light to moderate rains during the forecast period and areas bordering Ethiopia and Kenya will receive scattered showers. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands will also receive good rains. River levels along Juba and Shabelle rivers are currently below the short-term average. Given the rainfall forecast in the Ethiopian highlands, the river levels are expected to increase from the second week of October. Users are advised that this is a forecast, and there may be discrepancies between estimates and actual amounts of rainfall received. Information on the forecast and observed river levels is updated daily and can be found on this link: http://frrims.faoswalim.org.

The Deyr rains continued to spread in time and space over the last few days with many places in Somaliland and Puntland, especially those bordering Ethiopia recording significant rainfall amounts. Notably, some of the stations where good rains were recorded over the last one week include Las Anod 167mm, Balidhig 40.5mm, Xasbahale 83.0 mm, Burtinle 39.0 mm and Eyl 74.0 mm. Wanle Wayne, in the central Somalia received a total of 9.0 mm, while the rest of the region recorded little or no rains. The observed rains have provided immediate relief to water stress in these areas, temporarily improving the drought conditions. However, more rains with good intensity and distribution are required to bring to an end the current drought conditions. The central and southern regions of Somalia are yet to receive any substantial rainfall, and severe drought conditions prevail. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates heavy rains in Somaliland and Puntland with the highest amounts expected in areas close to the Ethiopian border. Moderate rains are expected in most parts of the South and Central save for Gedo region and areas bordering Kenya which are expected to receive little or no rains. Given the rainfall experienced in the Ethiopian highlands during the last two weeks and rainfall forecast for the coming week, the Juba and Shabelle river levels are expected to continue rising over the forecast period.

The last one week has been characterized by heavy rains in many parts of Somaliland and Puntland. As a result of the heavy rains Qardho experienced severe floods on 23rd October that led to destruction of infrastructure and property. Las Anod recorded a total of 104.0 mm in one day; while in the same week Caynabo received 91.0mm, Elafweyn 77.5mm, Dhahar 71.0mm, Eyl 74.0mm, Salaxley 63.5mm, Balidhiig 61mm, Las Dacawo 57mm, Talleh 48mm, Galkayo 48.0mm, Xasbahale 42.0mm, Burtinle 39.0mm, Dhubbato 38.0mm and Sheikh 36.0mm. Moderate rains were recorded in few stations in the central and southern regions, including Wanle Wayne 18.8mm and Mahas 15.5mm. Large parts of this region recorded light or no rains over the past one week. More rains with good intensity and distribution are required across the country to bring to an end the current drought conditions. The rains need to be sustained for long period, and more spatially distributed to sustain pasture and crop growth. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates heavy rains in Togdheer, Sool, Hiraan, Bakool and Galgaduud regions. Moderate rains are expected in the rest of the country save for the coastal areas of Bari region, and parts of Awdal region that may receive little or no rains. Middle and Lower Juba areas near the Kenyan border will also receive light rains, same with the coastal areas of Lower Shabelle region. The Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive heavy rains. Shabelle river level is currently high and given the rainfall forecast in the Ethiopian highlands, flooding may occur in sections with weak or open embankments. The risk is minimal along Juba river, as current levels are below average for this period.

Over the last two weeks, light to moderate rains have been reported in parts of Somalia, marking the onset of Deyr season. However, many parts of the country remain hot and dry. The western parts of Somaliland continued to receive good rains over the last two weeks. Some stations that recorded good rains over this period include Amoud 162mm, Qulujeed 100mm, Aburin 84mm, Sheikh 81mm and Magalo-Cad 68mm. Bari and Nugaal Regions of Puntland also received scattered rains, with Baran station recording the highest amount of 132mm over the past two weeks. Few areas in the central and southern regions of Somalia received light rains. The rains received so far are however of minimal impact, and the country continues to experience severe drought conditions. The rains are expected to spread in time and space during the coming weeks. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates scattered light rains across the country. Few pockets of moderate rains are expected in Togdheere, Sool and Sanaag Regions. Galgadud, Bakool and Lower Juba will also receive moderate rains in few places. The Ethiopian highlands where Juba and Shabelle rivers originate will have moderate to high rains during the forecast period. River levels along Shabelle and Juba, and which have been rising since beginning of September have slightly dropped over the last one week. The levels are currently within the short term mean for this period.

Many parts of Awdal and the western areas of Woqooyi Galbeed in Somaliland continued to receive moderate to heavy rains over the last two weeks. Some stations that recorded good rains over that period include Taysa 95mm, Borama 75.5 mm, Gebilley 63mm, Aburin 59.5mm, Hargeisa 59mm and Magalo–Cad 48mm. The Karan rains in this region have so far been good, and if sustained would provide relief to the current drought conditions. Other parts of Somaliland remained dry. In Puntland dry conditions prevailed except for light scattered showers in Iskushuban, Baran and Buuhodle districts. In the central and southern regions scattered light to moderate rains were recorded in Dinsoor 49mm, Baidoa 32.5mm and Mogadishu 41.3mm. The rest of the region continued to experience hot and dry conditions, worsening the existing drought conditions.