According to the seasonal Outlook co-produced by FAO SWALIM, World Meteorological Organization (WMO), IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPA)C, and Government of Somalia, Gu 2025 was expected to be characterized by below normal rainfall, normal to delayed onset and above normal temperatures. There was a 45 % likelihood that most parts of the country were to observe below normal rains. There was even a higher likelihood (55 %) of drier conditions being observed over Gedo region, and some parts of Bay, Bakool, Hiraan and Awdal regions. However, there were chances of very isolated above normal rains in some parts of Puntland. There was a very low probability that cumulative Gu rainfall amount would exceed 200mm particularly over the Shabelle River Catchment. However, there were chances of an exceedance of 200 mm over the Juba River Catchment (Middle Juba and Lower Juba).

According to the NOAA-NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) forecast, sparse light rains are expected across the country with chances of moderate intensity over Lower Juba, Hiraan and Mudug. Dry conditions are generally likely over most parts of Puntland and Somaliland. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall are as follows: Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over most parts of Banadir region; Middle Juba region particularly Jilib and Bu’aale districts; Lower Shabelle region particularly Baraawe and Marka districts; eastern parts of Ceel Waaq district in Gedo region; Qansax Dheere, central parts of Diinsoor distirct, northern parts of Buur Hakaba district and Baydhaba town in Bay region; Xudur district in Bakool region; areas bordering both Belet Wayne and Bulo Burte districts; Galagaduud region particularly Dhuursamarreeb district, western parts of Ceel Buur and north-eastern pats of Ceel Dheer districts; eastern parts of Hobyo districts in Mudug region; Togdheer region particularly Buuhodle district, western parts of Owdweyne district and northern parts of Burco district; northern parts of Caynabo district in Sool region; and Sanaag region particularly Ceerigaabo district. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over most parts of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Nugaal, Bari and Middle Shabelle regions; Togdheer region particularly Sheikh and northern parts of Owdweyne district; Sanaag region particularly Ceel Afweyn, Laasqoray and southern parts of Ceerigaabo district; Xudun and Taleex districts in Sool region; most parts of Galdogob, Gaalkacyo, Jariiban and western parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region; Galgaduud region particularly Cabudwaaq, eastern parts of Ceel Dheer and Ceel Buur districts; Hiraan region particularly Jalalaqsi district; northern parts of Baydhaba district in Bay region; Saakow district in Middle Juba region; Gedo region particularly Doolow, Luuq, Baardheere and southern parts of Belet Xaawo district; and Afmadow district in Lower Juba region.

Based on NOAA-NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS), scanty rains are expected over some parts of the country with moderate rains expected in Sool region and areas at the border of Mudug and Nugaal regions. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over most parts of the Somaliland and south-central. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over most parts of Banadir region; Badhaadhe, Kismaayo and Jamaame districts in Lower Juba region; Lower Shabelle region particularly coastal parts from Baraawe, Marka and Afgooye districts; several parts of Baydhaba town and north-western parts of Buur Hakaba districts in Bay region; most parts of Xudun,Taleex, southern parts of Caynabo and northern parts of Laas Caanood districts in Sool region; central parts of Jariiban district and north-eastern parts of Gaalkacyo districts in Mudug region; central parts of Nugaal region particularly areas bordering Eyl, Garoowe and Burtinle districts; and Bari region particularly central parts of Bandarbeyla district and eastern parts of Iskushuban district. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over most parts of Awdal, Woooyi Galbeed,Togdheer,Sanaag, Galgaduud, Hiraan, Bakool, Middle Juba, Gedo, and Middle Shabelle regions; most parts of Xarardheere, Hobyo, Galdogob, and sothern parts of Gaalkacyo districts in Mudug region;most parts of Diinsoor, Qansax Dheere, southern parts of Buur Hakaba and northern parts of Baydhaba districts in Bay region; most parts of Lower Shabelle region particularly Sablaale, Kurtunwaarey, Qoryooley, Afgooye and Wanla Weyn districts; isolated areas of Garoowe,Eyl,and Jariiban districts and northern areas of Burtinle district in Nugaal region; most parts of Qardho, Calluula, Qandala, Bossaso, southern parts of Bandarbeyla and eastern parts of Iskusuban districts in Bari region and several parts Afmadow district in Lower Juba region.

Forecasts from NOAA GFS indicate a strong surge in southeasterly to easterly winds along the Somali coastline, beginning Friday 23 May and persisting through Sunday 26 May. Wind speeds are expected to exceed 25 knots (12.9 m/s) over coastal waters, with localized intensification to >30 knots (15.4 m/s) especially offshore of Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, and Banadir. Strong onshore winds may also affect Hobyo (Mudug), Eyl (Nugaal), and Bosaso (Bari). These winds may induce coastal waves exceeding 2 metres, particularly along the Indian Ocean coast between Kismayo and Hobyo, creating rough marine conditions.

According to NOAA-NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS), light rains are expected over some parts of Bari, Sool and Sanaag regions and the coastal parts of Lower Juba, Middel Juba, Lower Shabelle and Banadir regions. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over the rest of the country. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Figure 1) are as follows: Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over most parts of Banadir region; Jamaame district, and coastal parts of both Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts in Lower Juba region, Bu’aale and Jilib districts in Middle Juba region; Baraawe ,Marka, Sablaale,Kurtunwarrey, Qoryooley and Afgooye districts in Lower Shabelle region; several parts Jowhar and Balcad districts in Middle Shabelle region; Diinsoor and Buur Hakaba district and southern parts of Baydhaba district in Bay region; northern parts of Qardho district, northern areas of both Bandarbeyla and Iskushuban districts in Bari region; border areas of Ceel Afweyn and Ceerigaabo districts and southern parts of Laasqoray in Sanaag region; north-eastern parts of Burco district and northern parts of Buhoodle district in Togdheer region; most parts of Xudun and Taleex districts, north-eastern parts of Caynabo district and Laas Caanood town in Sool region; and its border areas with Burtinle district in Nugaal region. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over the rest of the country particularly Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Nugaal, Mudug, Galgaduud, Hiraan, Bakool, and Gedo regions. Dry conditions are also likely over most parts of Togdheer region particularly Sheikh and Owdweyne districts, south and north-western parts of Burco district and southern parts of Buuhoodle district; Ceel Afweyn and Ceerigaabo districts and northern parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region; Bossaso, Qandala and Caluula districts, southern parts of Bandarbeyla district and central parts of Iskushuban district in Bari region; northern parts of Caynabo district and eastern parts of Laas Caanood district in Sool region; most parts of Afmadow district and inland areas of both Baadhadhe and Kismayo districts in Lower Juba region; Saakow district in Middle Juba region; most parts of Qansax Dheere district and north-western parts of Baydhaba district in Bay region; Wanla Weyn district in Lower Shabelle region; and several parts of Cadale and Adan Yabaal districts in Middle Shabelle region.

According to the NOAA-NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) forecast, light to moderate rains are expected in some areas in the southern and central inland parts of the country and isolated areas in Somaliland. Dry conditions are anticipated to prevail over most areas in Puntland, Lower Juba region, and central coastal parts of the country. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Figure 1) are as follows: Moderate cumulative rainfall of 50 mm to 100 mm is likely to occur over isolated areas in Bay region particularly eastern parts of Diinsoor district and areas in Baydhaba-Buur Hakaba border; western parts of Rab Dhuure district and southern parts of Ceel Barde district in Bakool region; central parts of Owdweyne district inTogdheer region; and northern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region. Such moderate rains are expected to fall over the upper sections of the Juba River catchment in Ethiopia. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over most parts of Gedo, Middle Juba, Bay, Bakool, Lower Shabelle, Hiraan and Togdheer regions; some parts of Galgaduud region particularly the areas bordering Ceel Buur and Dhuusamareeb districts, and the eastern parts of Cadaado district; most parts of Galdogob district, areas bordering Gaalkacyo and Hobyo districts in Mudug region; parts of Awdal region particularly southern areas of both Borama and Baki districts; most parts of Sanaag region particularly Laasqoray district, eastern areas of Ceel Afweyn District, and western parts of Ceerigaabo district; most parts of Gebiley district and northern areas of Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region; most parts of Xudun district and southern areas of Laas Caanood in Sool region; and northern parts of Qandala district in Bari region. Rains of similar intensity are likely to fall over most areas within the catchments of both Juba and Shabelle River. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over most parts Lower Juba, Middle Shabelle and Nugaal regions; most parts of Galgaduud region particularly Ceel Dheer District and southern parts of Ceel Buur district; several parts of Mudug region particularly Xarardheere, Hobyo and Jariiban districts; most parts of Bari region particularly Bossaso, Qardho, Iskushuban ,Callula and southern areas of Qandala district; most parts of Taleex district and northern parts of Laas Caanood district in Sool region; western parts of Ceel Afweyn district and eastern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region; Woqooyi Galbeed region particularly Berbera and Hargeisa districts; and several parts of Awdal region particularly Zeylac and Lughaye districts.

Light to moderate rains is expected across central and southern regions this week, with intense storms possible in Middle Shabelle and Galgaduud. Dry and hot conditions persist in Puntland and Awdal, raising heat stress and water scarcity concerns. Rainfall prospects remain favorable for most of May.

According to the NOAA-NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) forecast, moderate (50 – 100 mm) to heavy rains (100 – 150 mm)are expected over Bay and Bakool regions and parts of Hiraan region. Light rains (less than 50 mm) are likely over the rest of the country except over most parts of Puntland and Awdal region where dry conditions are likely to prevail. Although the current and forecast position of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is outside the region of influence, the rains over Bay and Bakool may cumulate to more than 150 mm by the end of the forecast period. Other regional factors and intraseasonal atmospheric influences are likely to be favoring this increased onshore moisture transports and rainfall in the region. Although the performance of Gu rains has a weak connection with El nino southern Oscillation (ENSO), the weakening of La Niña during March and April seems to have favored moderate rains at the start of the season. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 2) are as follows: Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over several areas in the country including most parts of Togdheer, Sool, Galgaduud, Middle Juba and Banadir regions; southern parts of Hargeysa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region; Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region; some isolated parts in the western parts of Qardho district in Bari region; northern parts of Garoowe district and western parts of Burtinle District in Nugaal region; Gaalkacyo, Galdogob and Xarardheere districts and southern parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region; Jalalaqsi district and northern parts of both Belet Weyne and Bulo Burte districts in Hiraan region; northern parts of both Jowhar and Adan Yabaal districts and coastal parts of both Balcad and Adan Yabaal districts in Middle Shabelle region; eastern parts of both Wanla Weyn and Afgooye districts in Lower Shabelle region; western parts of Qansax Dheere district and southern parts of Dinsoor district in Bay region; Doolow district and southern parts of Baardheere district in Gedo region; Jamaame district, northern parts of Kismaayo district and southern parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region. Moderate cumulative rainfall of 50 mm to 100 mm is likely to occur over most parts of Bay region particularly Buur Hakaba district; most parts of Bakool region including Rab Dhuure and Ceel Barde districts; and most parts of Lower Shabelle region particularly Marka and Baraawe districts, southern parts of Sablaale district, and western parts of both Wanla Weyn and Afgooye districts; Luuq, Belet Xaawo and Garbahaarey districts, northern parts of both Ceel Waaq and Baardheere districts; south-eastern parts of Afmadow district; western parts of both Belet Weyne districts in Hiraan region; Middle Shabelle region particularly Cadale district, central parts of Jowhar, and inland parts of Balcad district; areas at the border of Ceel Buur and Dhuusamarreeb districts in Galgaduud region. It is important to note that similar moderate rains will also be observed over several parts of both Shabelle and Juba River catchments within the country and in Ethiopia. Heavy cumulative rainfall of between 100 and 150 mm is likely to be observed over most parts of Baydhaba district and northern parts of Buur Hakaba district in Bay region; eastern parts of Luuq district in Gedo region; Waajid, Xudur and Tayeeglow districts in Bakool region; western parts of Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region. Very heavy cumulative rainfall of over 150 mm is likely to be observed over some northern parts of Baydhaba district in Bay region; Xudur district and southern parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool region. There is a chance that the rains over these areas may exceed 200 mm by the end of the forecast period. Daily forecasts suggest that much of these rains may be observed on the 18 and 19 April with likelihood of flash flooding over prone areas. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over most parts Awdal and Bari regions; most parts of Lower Juba region particularly Badhaadhe district; Jariiban district in Mudug region, most parts of Nugaal region particularly Eyl district and eastern parts of Garoowe districts; some parts of Sanaag region particularly Ceel Afweyn district, northern parts of Laasqoray district and the coastal parts of Ceerigaabo district; and most parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region particularly Berbera and Gebiley districts and northern parts of Hargeisa district.

Based on the NOAA-NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) forecast, light to moderate rain is expected over several areas in the southern parts of the country with dry conditions expected to prevail over Somaliland and Puntland. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) are as follows: Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over several areas in the southern parts of the country including most parts of Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Bay, and Lower Shabelle regions; some parts of Gedo particularly Ceel Waaq and Bardheere districts; parts of Middle Shabelle region particularly Jowhar and Balcad districts; parts of Bakool region particularly Xudur and Ceel Barde districts; western parts of Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region; southern parts of Gebiley district and Hargeisa town in Woqooyi Galbeed region; Buuhoodle district and southern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region; northern coastal parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region. It is important to note that such rains are likely to fall over the Juba River catchment within and outside the country. While the rains over the upper and central catchment of the Shabelle River will be very light, they may increase in intensity over the lower sections in Middle Shabelle including Jowhar. Moderate cumulative rainfall of 50 mm to 100 mm is likely to occur over isolated areas in Lower Juba region particularly southern parts of Afmadow district; and areas bordering Sablaale and Baraawe districts and northern border areas of Kurtunwarey and Qoryooley districts in Lower Shabelle region. It is important to note that intense but isolated rains of above 100 mm may be observed over areas in Lower Juba bordering Kenya. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over most parts Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sanaag, Sool, Bari, Nugaal, Mudug and Galgaduud regions; most parts of Hiraan region particularly Bulo Burte and Jalaqsi districts and eastern parts of Belet Weyne; eastern parts of Middle Shabelle region particularly Adan Yabaal district and the northern parts of Cadale district; and some parts of Bakool region particularly Waajid, Rab Dhuure and Tayeeglow districts.

Flooding reported at Bayaxaaw and Raqayle villages downstream of Jowhar town. The floods have primarily resulted from a breakage, reported to have been created by riverine farmers diverting river water into irrigation canals during the recent dry spells. Communities in the affected villages are making efforts to close the breakage, but they have not succeeded so far. Although the river level at Jowhar gauging station has surpassed the moderate flood-risk threshold, no natural river overbank flows have been observed yet.

Based on NOAA-NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS), light rains are expected in several areas in the country with chances of moderate intense rains over isolated areas in Afmadow (Lower Juba), Baydhaba (Bay), and Wanla Weyne (Lower Shabelle) regions. Most northern parts of Awdal region and coastal parts of Mudug, Nugaal and Bari will likely remain dry. Although the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is currently within a region of influence ( phase 1/2), its present and forecast strength may not favor very heavy rains within the forecast period. Moderate rains cumulating to about 100 mm at the end of the forecast period are possible. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall are as follows: Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over several areas in the country including Togdheer, Sool, Sanaag, Galgaduud, Hiraan, Lower Shabelle, Bakool and Gedo regions; Borama district in Awdal region; Gebiley district, northern and southern parts of Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region; Bossaso and Qandala districts and northern parts of Qardho district in Bari region; Burtinle district and southern parts of Garowe district in Nugaal region; Xaradheere and Galdogob districts, northern parts of Galkacyo district, western parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region; Jowhar and Adan Yabaal districts in Middle Shabelle region; and Qansax Dheere and northern parts of Buur Hakaba district in Bay region. It is important to note that such light rains are also likely over the upper catchments of Juba River in Ethiopia. Moderate cumulative rainfall of 50 mm and more is likely over isolated areas in the northern parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region; northern parts of Baydhaba district in Bay region; central parts of Wanla Weyne district in Lower Shabelle region; Balcad district in Middle Shabelle region; northern parts of Ceel Barde district and northern parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool region; Jalalaqsi district and central parts of Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region; northern and southern parts of Laasqoray district and eastern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region; and central parts of Burco district in Togdheer region. Similar moderate rains will also be observed over most parts of the upper catchments of Shabelle River in Ethiopia. The rains over isolated areas in the northern parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region; northern parts of Baydhaba district in Bay region; central parts of Wanla Weyne district in Lower Shabelle region may increase in intensity with up to more than 50 mm within the first 3 days and summing up to more than 100 mm by the end of the forecast period. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over most parts of Middle Juba region; Zeylac, and Lughaye districts and northern parts of Baki district in Awdal region; Berbera district, and northern parts of Gebiley district and central parts of Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region; northern parts of Ceel Afweyn district in Sanaag region; Caluula, Iskushuban and Bandarbeyla districts and southern parts of Qardho district in Bari region; Eyl district in Nugaal region; Jariiban, Hobyo and Cadaado districts, and southern parts of Galkacyo district in Mudug region; eastern parts of both Ceel Buur district; eastern and western parts of Dhuusamarreeb district, and coastal parts of Ceel dheer district in Galgaduud region; Cadele district in Middle Shabelle region; Baraawe and Kurtunwaarey districts in Lower Shabelle region; northern parts of Dinsoor district and southern parts of Buur Hakaba district in Bay region; Luuq and Ceel Waaq districts in Gedo region; Jamaame district, eastern parts of both Afmadow and Badhaadhe districts and northern parts of Kismaayo district in Lower Juba region.

FAO-SWALIM has updated the status of the river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers using available Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM). Five types of breakages have been identified; Open, Overflow, Canal Breakage, Canal Intake Flooding and Closed with sandbags. The open breakages are those that are currently open as observed on the latest VHR image available. All the observations reported refers to the latest suitable VHR satellite image available, which is indicated in the online database. A legend/Key for further explanation of the different types of breakages is provided. Along the Juba river 109 Open points, 1 Canal Breakage, 20 Canal flooding points, 87 Overflow points and 1 point closed with sandbags have been identified. Along the Shabelle river, a total of 98 Open breakage points, 2 Canal Breakages, 56 Canal flooding points, 94 Overflow points and 5 points closed with sandbags have been identified. Users are advised that the methodology is biased towards Remote Sensing (RS) interpretation with only limited “ground truthing” due to access constraints. Open breakages might have been omitted in some cases where satellite images may not have been very clear (e.g. heavy cloud cover) or were not available.

The impacts of climate change have become more apparent in GHA’s cross-border regions, evident in the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events, mainly recurring and severe droughts and floods. This national forum is, therefore, a much-needed platform that encourages exchange and interactions among pastoralists, farmers, climate information producers and users, and multi-institutional and multi-stakeholder collaboration. At the end of the workshop, the development and release of expected impacts and advisories based on the Gu 2025 seasonal outlook were the key outputs of the meeting. The Gu season is crucial for all regions in Somalia, contributing up to 40-70% of annual rainfall in the southern and northwestern parts of the country, and 50-70% in the central and northern parts of the country. On average, the Gu season brings 200-300 mm of rainfall in the southern parts, 100-200 mm of rainfall over the central and northwestern parts, and 50-100 mm of rainfall over the northern parts of the country. The Gu 2025 rainfall outlook shows a high likelihood of drier-than-normal conditions across all states and regions of Somalia, except for isolated highland areas in the Sanaag and Bari regions in the north and coastal parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region. Several areas in Gedo, Bakool and Galgaduud regions, northwestern parts of Bay region particularly Baydhaba district, eastern parts of Hiraan region, and areas of Mudug region bordering Ethiopia particularly Galdogob district, are predicted to have more than a 50 % likelihood of experiencing drier-than-normal conditions (Figure 1).

This tail end of March marks the climatological start of the Gu rains with the arrival of the InterTropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) from the southern hemisphere. Based on NOAA-NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS), light rains are expected in the southern parts of the country with most parts of Somaliland and Puntland remaining dry. The status and forecast evolution of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) does not favor the likelihood of heavy rains within the forecast period. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) are as follows: Moderate cumulative rainfall of 50 mm and more is likely over very isolated areas in Dollow district, western parts of Luuq district and northern parts of Belet Xaawo district in Gedo region. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over most parts of Gedo region, and some parts of Lower Juba particularly Badhaadhe district, Bay particularly Baydhaba district, Bakool particularly Ceel Barde district, Hiraan particularly Belet Weyne town, Saakow district in Middle Juba region, Middle Shabelle including Banadir region. Light rainfall is also likely over the western parts of both Dhuusamareeb and Ceel Dheer districts in Galgaduud region, southmost parts of both Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region and elevated areas in eastern parts of Ceel Afweyn district in Sanaag region. It is important to point out that light to moderate rains is forecast to fall within the catchments of Juba River. Light rains are anticipated over the lower reaches of Shabelle River and moderate rains further up in Ethiopian Highlands. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over vast areas in Mudug region, Nugaal region and Bari regions. Similarly dry conditions are also expected in Sool, most low-lying areas in Sanaag region, vast inland parts of Awdal region, Berbera district and northern parts of both Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region.

Contributing to about 60 % of annual rainfall, Gu season is critical for the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) including Somalia. According to IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC), Gu 2025 is predicted to be characterized by below normal rainfall, normal to delayed onset and above normal temperatures. There is a 45 % likelihood that most parts of the country (Zone IV in yellow/orange in Map 4) will observe below normal rains. There is even a higher likelihood (55 %) of drier conditions being observed over Gedo, and some parts of Bay, Bakool, Hiraan and Awdal (dark orange). However, there are chances of very isolated above normal rains in some parts of Puntland. There is very low probability that cumulative Gu rainfall amount will exceed 200mm particularly over the Shabelle River Catchment. However, there are chances of exceedance over the uppermost and lowermost reaches of Juba River Catchment. ICPAC have also reported that the status and predicted evolution of climate drivers in 2024/2025 closely resemble observations made in 2016/2017 and 2020/2021. The characteristics of the Gu 2025 are therefore expected to resemble those observed in 2017 and 2021.

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, light rainfall is expected over isolated areas in Lower Juba and Bay and along the eastern coastal parts of the country with dry conditions likely to prevail elsewhere during the coming week (Map 3). As the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) moves further south, the Northeast monsoon will develop further with strengthened wind conditions particularly at Eyl district in Nugaal region and Bandarbeyla district in Bari region. The light rains along the narrow upper eastern coastal areas are therefore likely to be favoured by the moisture influx associated with these winds. However, the present and forecast forward propagation of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is likely to suppress moisture availability with very low chance of significant rainfall in the next 2 weeks. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 3) are as follows: Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over isolated areas in Lower Juba region and in Dinsoor district in Bay region. Similar rains are likely over a narrow strip along the eastern coastal parts of the country particularly at the following areas: Adan Yabaal district in Middle Shabelle region, Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region, Hobyo district in Mudug region, Eyl district in Nugaal region, and Bandarbeyle and Caluula district in Bari region. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over the rest of the country particularly Gedo, Bakool, Lower Shabelle, Hiraan, Sool, Sanaag, Togdheer, Woqooyi Galbeed and Awdal regions and inland areas of the following regions: Middle Shabelle, Galgaduud, Mudug, Nugaal and Bari.

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS forecasts, only very light rains (<10 mm) are expected over extremely narrow northern coastal parts of Somalia during the coming week (Map 2). Dry conditions will dominate the rest of the country as Somalia remains under a La Niña Watch phase. As the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) moves further south, the Northeast monsoon will develop further with strengthened wind conditions particularly at Eyl district in Nugaal region and Bandarbeyla district in Bari region. The light rains along the narrow northern coastal areas are therefore likely to be favoured by the moisture influx associated with these winds. However, the present and forecast forward propagation of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is likely to suppress moisture availability with very low chance of significant rainfall in the next two (2) weeks.

According to ICPAC WRF forecasts, light rains (of less than 10 mm) are expected over some areas in the north and south with chances of up to 50 mm over some areas in Lower Juba and Middle Juba regions during the coming week. Dry conditions will dominate the rest of the country as Somalia remains under a La Niña Watch phase. As the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) moves further south, the Northeast monsoon will develop further with strengthened wind conditions particularly at Eyl district in Nugaal region and Bandarbeyla district in Bari region. However, the present and forecasted weakening of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is likely to suppress moisture availability with a very low chance of significant rainfall in the next two (2) weeks.

The levels along Juba River have demonstrated notable variations when compared to the long-term mean (LTM) and last year’s El Niño-influenced behaviour. The level at Dollow is 40 cm above high flood risk level (5.00 m) today (11 November 2024) having rose sharply from 4.08 m on 4 November to 5.40 m today. A similar behaviour is expected at Luuq, where the level today is at moderate flood risk level (5.50 m) having rose sharply from 4.20 m on 4 November to 5.50 m today. This increase is occasioned by moderate cumulative rainfall over its catchment in the Ethiopian highlands and light rainfall within Somalia. Moderate rainfall is expected over the Juba River catchment in the second week of November. However, with the further development of La Niña, these rains may be short-lived. Considering the lag effect of previous rains, the light to moderate rainfall forecast over Juba River catchment in Ethiopian Highlands and within Somalia will generate moderate runoff enough to sustain the high river flows at the upper reaches of Juba River within the coming week. While the high flows will be transmitted downstream to Bardheere, Saakow, Bualle and finally to Jilib in the long run, less intense rains are expected in the second half of November 2024. There is therefore SUSTAINED HIGH RIVER FLOWS at Dollow and MODERATE RIVER FLOWS at Luuq with expected rise at Bardheere in the coming week. Although high river flows do not necessarily translate to riverine flooding, day-by-day rainfall and river level monitoring is advised. Notable fluctuations have also been observed along the Shabelle River in recent weeks compared to the LTM, last year’s conditions influenced by El Niño, and even last week. After a slight drop of the high flows on 29 October 2024, the Shabelle River level at Belet Weyne today (7.00 m) is 50 cm above moderate flood risk level (6.50 m) and only 30 cm below high flood risk level (7.30 cm). This behaviour is driven by the occurrence of wet and dry spells in its catchment within Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. The levels today at Bulo Burte (5.35 m) and Jowhar (4.38 m) are still well below flood risk levels. Moderate rainfall is expected over the Shabelle River catchment in the second week of November. However, with further development of La Niña, the rains may be short-lived. Considering the lag effect of previous rains, the light to moderate rainfall forecast over Shabelle River catchment in Ethiopian Highlands and within Somalia will generate moderate runoff enough to sustain the river flows at the upper reaches of Shabelle River within the coming week. While the high flows will be transmitted downstream to Bulo Burte, Jalalaqsi, Jowhar and finally to Balcad in the long run, less intense rains are expected in the second half of November 2024. There is therefore SUSTAINED MODERATE RIVER FLOWS at Belet Weyne with expected rise at Bulo Burte in the coming week. Although high river flows do not necessarily translate to riverine flooding, day-by-day rainfall and river level monitoring is advised.

The El Nino driven 2023 Deyr rains followed by good 2024 Gu rains, led to replenishment of both surface and ground water sources in Somalia. The spatial variability of the rains however meant different implications on the different aquifers across the country. In Somaliland, the good temporal and spatial distribution of the rains ensured good recharge of ground water sources in most areas. The Karan rains that fall during the normal Hagaa dry period ensured continued replenishment of the ground water sources. South and central Somalia also received average to above average rains in most of the monitored stations. However in Puntland , the below normal rainfall received during this period led to minimal recharge of ground water sources. Between May and September 2024, FAO SWALIM has installed and started the hourly monitoring of 35 boreholes across Somalia. The installation of the hardware is complete, and majority of the stations transmitting data online. There are however few with technical hitches either in the data recording or transmission, and these are being sorted to ensure complete network functionality by end of November 2024. The installed groundwater level monitoring stations provide near real-time data on aquifer fluctuations, enabling efficient and effective management of the water resources. The collected data is analyzed to track changes in aquifer storage, identify areas of potential depletion, and assess the impact of pumping and recharge activities.

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, rainfall for the upcoming week is expected to be moderate in parts of Bay and Lower Shabelle and light over Lower Juba, Gedo, and Middle Juba regions, as well as isolated areas of the Juba and Shabelle River basins. Most of northern Somalia is expected to remain largely dry. The observed rainfall during the previous week is linked to the arrival of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which enhanced moisture influx into southern and central Somalia. However, the weakening of the MJO phase, as indicated by the latest ECMWF forecast, implies less intense rains in the coming weeks. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) are as follows: Moderate cumulative rainfall of 50 mm and above is possible over for south-central parts of the country including the border areas of Dinsoor and Qansax Dheere districts in Bay region and Bardheere district in Gedo region. Similar rains are also likely over Sablaale and Baraawe disctricts in Lower Shabelle region. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is likely over most parts of Lower Juba region, Dinsoor, western parts of Buur Hakaba district and northern parts of Baydhaba district in Bay region; Sablaale, Baraawe, Kurtunwaarey and Marka districts in Lower Shabelle region; Garbahaarey and Ceel Waaq districts in Gedo region; and eastern parts of Ceel Barde district and southern parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool region. Light but very localized rains are possible over central parts of Belet Weyne district and southwestern parts of Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, eastern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region, central parts of Ceel Afweyn district in Sanaag region, and narrow coastal parts of Mudug and Nugaal regions and narrow northern coastal parts of Bari region. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over Middle Shabelle, Galgaduud, Sool, Awdal and Woqqoyi Galbeed regions, non-costal parts of Mudug, Nugaal and Bari regions, and most other parts of Hiraan, Togdheer and Sanaag regions. Dry conditions are also possible over Saakow district in Middle Juba region, western parts of Bardheere district in Gedo region, Rab Dhuure, Waajid and Xudur districts and northern parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool region, southern parts of Baydhaba district and eastern parts of Buur Hakaba district in Bay region, Jalalaqsi district, most other parts of Bulo Burte district and eastern parts Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region.

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, light rainfall is expected over several areas in the south and central regions and in some parts of Somaliland during this last week of November. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over Puntland, Galmudug and Sool-Sanaag regions. The observed rainfall during the first half of November was likely linked to the arrival of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which enhanced moisture influx into southern and central Somalia. The weakening and forward propagation of the MJO in this last week of November, as indicated by the latest ECMWF forecast, is likely to lead to less intense rains in the coming weeks. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) are as follows: Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over several areas in the following regions: Gedo, Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Bay, Bakool, Lower Shabelle, Hiraan, Middle Shabelle, Togdheer, Woqooyi Galbeed and Awdal. The rains over the central parts of Gedo and northern parts of Lower Juba may be intense leading up to moderate amounts of 50 mm or more. It is important to note that similar rainfall amounts are likely over some areas within the catchments of both Juba and Shabelle Rivers Dry conditions are likely to prevail over Bari, Nugaal, Mudug, Galgaduud, Sool, and Sanaag regions and Buhoodle district, northern and southern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region, Gebiley and Berbera districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region, Borama district, southern parts of Zeylac district and central parts of Baki district in Awdal region, central parts of Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region, Jowhar and Balcad districts in Middle Shabelle region, northern parts of Tayeeglow district and Rab Dhuure district in Bakool region, western parts of Dinsoor district and eastern parts of Buur Hakaba district in Bay region, northern parts of Badhaadhe district and southern parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, western parts of Saakow district, northern parts of Bu’aale district, and northern parts of Jilib district in Middle Juba region.

According to NAA-NCEP GFS, rainfall is expected to continue over most parts of Somaliland with a sustained spread of light rains over Hiran, Bay and Bakool regions. The expected eastward and southward distribution of the rains from Somaliland during this time of the season seems to have been hindered by a poorly organized Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Cloudiness in the south, particularly over Lower Juba, Middle Juba and Gedo regions will only translate to light rains. However, there are chances of somehow intense rains in the second week of November. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall are as follows: Heavy cumulative rainfall between 100 mm to 150 mm is expected over southern parts of both Borama and Baki districts in Awdal region, southern half of Gebiley district and southwestern parts of Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Similarly heavy rain is likely over the southern border areas of Hargeisa and Owdweyne district in Togdheer region. The rains in some of these areas is likely to be intense leading up to up to 200 mm by the end of the week. It is important to also note that such intense rains are also likely over some isolated areas within the middle portions of Shabelle River catchment in Ethiopia. Moderate rainfall between 50 and 100 mm is likely over the following most parts of Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region, southern halves of both Baki and Borama districts in Awdal region, Sheikh and western parts of Owdweyne district in Togdheer region, southwestern parts of Baki in Awdal region. Most parts of the northern sections of the middle portions of Shabelle River catchment in Ethiopia are expected to receive such moderate rains. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over vast areas in Togdheer and Bakool regions, northern half of Awdal region, northern ranges areas in Sanaag region, central parts of Sool region, and Galkacyo district in Mudug region. Isolated rains over Hiraan, Bay, Gedo, Middle Juba and Lower Juba regions are also likely to cumulate to less than 50.0 mm at the end of the forecast week. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over vast areas in Bari, Nugaal, Mudug, Galgaduud, Banadir, Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle, , Middle Juba, Lower Juba, and Gedo regions and southern parts of Bay region. It is important to note that except for northern ranges in Sanaag region, the coastal parts of the country are likely to remain dry.

Light rainfall is expected over isolated areas in the southern and along the eastern coastal parts of the country with dry conditions likely to prevail elsewhere during the coming week, according to NOAA-NCEP GFS. While ICPAC’s forecast anticipates moderate rainfall of more than 50 mm over the same areas, the rains in first week of December are likely to be light in intensity with reduced moisture influx because of the forecast forward propagation of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) are as follows: Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over isolated areas in Middle Juba region, Badhaadhe and Afamadow districts in Lower Juba region, Dinsoor and Baydhaba districts in Bay region, Dollow, Luuq and Belet Xaawo districts in Gedo region, Marka district in Lower Shabelle region, and in Xudur district in Bakool region. Rains of similar intensity are likely over the eastern coastal areas including Eyl district in Nugaal region, Bandarbeyla, Iskushuban and Caluula district in Bari region. The coastal cloudiness and rains may stretch all the way to Banadir in the first half of the forecast week. The rains over isolated areas in Middle Shabelle region and Dollow district in Gedo region may intensify to moderate amounts (above 50 mm) by the end of the forecast period. It is important to note that some of the areas likely to receive pockets of light to moderate rainfall fall within the catchments of Juba River. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over most areas in the following regions: Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, Sanaag, Mudug, Galgaduud, Hiraan and Middle Shabelle. Similar dry conditions are also likely to prevail over most inland parts of both Bari and Nugaal regions; and in some areas in Kismaayo district in Lower Juba; Saakow district in Middle Juba; Bardheere, Ceel Waaq and Garbahaarey districts in Gedo region; Sablaale, Baraawe, Kurtunwaarey, Qoryooley, Afgooye and Wanla Weyn districts in Lower Shabelle region; Qansadheere district in Bay region;and Waajid, Rab Dhuure, Ceel Barde and Tayeeglow districts in Bakool region.

Moderate cumulative rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is expected over southern parts of Lower Shabelle region particularly Sablaale and Baraawe districts, and the northern coastal parts of Lower Juba region particularly Jamaame district. In some of these southern coastal parts the rains may cumulate to above 100 mm. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is likely over most of the areas in Bay, Bakool and Banadir regions, Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts in Lower Juba region, Jilib district in Middle Juba region, Afgoye and Wanla Weyne in Lower Shabelle region, Garbaharey and Ceel Waaq districts in Gedo region, Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region, Dhuusamarreeb, Cabudwaaq and Ceel Dheer districts in Galgaduud region. Light rains may also be observed in very isolated areas in the following places: Laas Canood district in Sool region, coastal parts of Mudug region at Hobyo district, elevated areas in the northern parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region, and Bossaso district in Bari region. It is important to point such light rainfall is also expected to fall over most parts of the Juba and Shabelle River catchments within Somali and in Ethiopia. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over vast areas in the north including Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool and Sanaag regions in Somaliland, and Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions in Puntland. Dry conditions are also likely over Middle Shabelle region, Galgadud region particularly in Cadaado and Ceel Buur districts, Bulo Burte and Jalalaqsi districts in Hiraan region, Qoryooley and Kurtunwaarey districts in Lower Shbaelle region, Dollow, Luuq and Baardheere districts in Gedo region, Saakow and Bualle districts in Middle Juba region, and Afmadow district in Lower Juba region.