Based on NOAA-NCEP GFS, dry conditions are expected to prevail in most parts of the country with chances of very light rains in some parts of Jubaland (Figure 1). Dry conditions are also expected over the entire Shabelle River catchment. Light isolated rains are expected over the Juba River catchment within and outside Somalia.

Based on NOAA-NCEP GFS, dry conditions are expected to prevail in most parts of the country with chances of very light rains in some parts of Jubaland (Figure 1). Dry conditions are also expected over the entire Shabelle River catchment. Light isolated rains are expected over the Juba River catchment within and outside Somalia.

Based on NOAA-NCEP GFS, dry conditions are expected to prevail in most parts of the country with chances of very light rains in some parts of Jubaland (Figure 1). Dry conditions are also expected over the entire Shabelle River catchment. Light isolated rains are expected over the Juba River catchment within and outside Somalia.

Based on climatology, the month of November marks the peak of Deyr rains. However, according to NOAA-NCEP GFS, dry conditions are expected to prevail in most parts of the country, particularly northern and central parts during the coming week (Figure 1). Light rains are likely over few isolated areas in Bay, Gedo, Middle Juba and Lower Juba regions, and Sablaale district in Lower Shabelle region. The present status of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is strong but out-of-phase and is therefore not likely to favor any significant rain during the forecast period.

Based on NOAA-NCEP GFS, dry conditions are expected to prevail in most parts of the country with chances of very light rains in some parts of Jubaland (Figure 1). Dry conditions are also expected over the entire Shabelle River catchment. Light isolated rains are expected over the Juba River catchment within and outside Somalia.

Based on climatology, the first week of November represents the climax of the Deyr rainfall season. So far into the season, Deyr rains have been below normal across most parts of the country. Given that the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index (Figure 5) is out-of-phase, and as confirmed by the NOAA GFS (Figure 4), dry conditions are forecast over Somalia including the entire Juba and Shabelle River catchments in the coming week. The Deyr season may actually come to an end in the coming two weeks ushering in the hot and dry Jilaal season. Based on the available observed and forecast data, the likelihood of flooding along both Juba and Shabelle Rivers remain low.

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, dry conditions are expected to prevail in most parts of the country, particularly northern and central parts during the third week of November (Figure 2). Light rains are likely over few isolated areas in Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Gedo, and Bay regions, and coastal parts of the following areas: Hobyo district in Mudug region, Caluul and Bosasso districts in Bari region, and Laasqoraay in Sanaag region. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is presently strong but out-of-phase and is therefore not likely to favor any significant rain during the forecast period.

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, light rains are likely over some areas in the south with dry conditions expected to prevail in most other parts of the country, particularly Somaliland and Puntland (Figure 2). The rains in the south may be of moderate intensity over isolated areas in Bay, Lower Shabelle, Banadir, and Middle Shabelle regions, and over the coastal parts of both Galgaduud and Mudug. These light to moderate rain is likely to be observed between 22 and 24 November 2025.

Dry conditions are expected to prevail in most parts of the country, particularly in the northern and central parts during the coming week according to NOAA-NCEP GFS forecast (Figure 1). Synoptic forecast show that light rains are likely to be observed in Badhaadhe and Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, Saakow district in Middle Juba region, Bardheere and Ceel Waaq districts in Gedo region, and Buur Hakab district in Bay region. While most forecasts anticipate similar distribution of rain, ICPAC anticipates relatively intense rains particularly in some parts of Gedo and Bay region.

After the GHACOF-71, the 2nd National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF) for the October–December (Deyr) 2025 season was convened in Mogadishu, Somalia, from 2nd to 3rd September 2025 under the theme “Climate Science and Forecasting for a Resilient The major highlights were; Poor and late Deyr rains: Most of Somalia is forecast to receive below-normal rainfall, with a delayed onset, especially in the south. Hotter than usual: Above-average temperatures will worsen drought, water stress, and health risks Northern drought persists: Conditions in Somaliland and Puntland are expected to deteriorate further. Flood risks remain: Despite the dry forecast, localized flash floods and river overflows remain a threat in flood-prone areas Livelihoods at risk: Short and erratic rains will limit farming recovery and stress livestock. Therefore, urgent need for drought response in the north, safeguarding gains in the south, proactive flood, water, and health preparedness

Based on the ICPAC seasonal forecast, the Deyr rains are likely to begin in the first dekad of October in Togdheer, Sool and Nugaal regions. According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, widespread light rainfall is expected over most parts of Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, Sanaag and Hiraan regions and some inland parts of Nugaal, Mudug, and Galgaduud regions. The spatial spread of the forecast rainfall conditions are as follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50.0 and 100.0 mm is forecast over northern parts of Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region; northern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region; southwestern parts of Qardo district in Bari region; eastern parts of Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region; western and eastern parts of Buuhodle district in Togdheer region; and western parts of Laas Caanood district in Sool region. The intensity of the rains over northern parts of both Hargeisa and Ceerigaabo districts may lead up to more than 100 mm at the end of the forecast week. Heavy rainfall above 150 mm is likely over the upper catchments of Shabelle River in Ethiopia in the far north-eastern highlands of Gode city. Light rainfall of less than 50.0 mm is expected over most other parts of Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag regions; and most other parts of Qardo, Bulo Burte, Buuhodle, and Laas Caanood districts. Similarly light rains are also expected over most parts of Borama and Baki districts in Awdal region; Qandala and Bandarbeyla districts in Bari region; Garowe and Burtinle districts in Nugaal region; Galkacyo district and inland parts of bothJ ariiban and Hobyo districts in Mudug region; Cadaado, Dhuusamarreeb and Cabudwaaq districts in Galgaduud region; Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region; Ceel Barde and Tayeglow districts in Bakool region and Baydhaba district in Bay region. Similar light rains are expected over the Shabelle River catchment within Somalia. Dry conditions are likely over most parts of the following regions: Lower Juba, Middel Juba, Gedo, Lower Shabelle, and Middel Shabelle. Similar conditions are expected over Dinsoor district in Bay region; Rab Dhuure and Waajid districts in Bakool region; Ceel Dheer and Xaradheere districts in Galgaduud region; coastal parts of both Hobyo and Jariiban districts in Mudug region; coastal parts of Eyl district in Nugaal region; Iskushuban, Caluula and Bossaso districts in Bari region; and Zeylac and Lughaye districts in Awdal region. Similar dry conditions are likely over most areas over the Juba River catchment within and outside Somalia.

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, widespread light to moderate rainfall is expected over most parts of central Somalia including Nugaal, Mudug, Galgaduud, Hiraan, Middel Shabelle, Bay and Bakool regions. The north and southmost parts of the country are expected to remain dry. The spatial spread of the forecast rainfall conditions are as follows (Figure 1): Moderate rainfall of between 50.0 and 100.0 mm is forecast over most parts of Galkacyo district in Mudug, central parts of Burtinle district in Nugaal, central parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool and central parts of Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region which forms the middle section of the Shabelle River in Somalia. Rains of similar moderate intensity are also likely over the uppermost catchment of Shabelle River in Ethiopia. Light rainfall of less than 50.0 mm is expected over most other parts of Mudug, Nugaal, Bakool and Hiraan regions. Rains of lighter intensity are also likely over most parts of Galgaduud, Middle Shabelle, and Bay regions, Luuq district in Gedo region, Bu’aale district in Middel Juba region, southern parts of Qardo and Bandarveyla districts in Bari region. Similar light rains are expected over the middle and upper sections of the Juba River catchment and over upper portions of Shabelle River catchment within Somalia. Dry conditions are likely over most parts of Somaliland including Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool and Sanaag regions; most parts of Bari, Lower Juba, Middle Juba, and Lower Shabelle regions. Dry conditions are also likely to prevail over most parts of Garowe district in Nugaal region; Cadaado and Cabudwaaq districts and eastern parts of Ceel Buur district in Galgaduud; Jilib abd Saakow districts in Middle Juba region; Baardheere, Ceel Waaq, Garbahaarey, Belet Xaawo and Dollow districts in Gedo region;and coastal parts of Middle Shabelle including Banadir. Similar dry conditions are likely over most areas over the lower sections of the Juba River catchment within Somalia.

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, rainfall is expected over some parts of central Somalia with moderate intensity in parts of Hiraan, Middle Shabelle and Mudug regions. The north and southmost parts of the country are expected to remain dry. The spatial spread of the forecast rainfall conditions is as follows (Figure 1): Heavy rainfall of above 100 mm is likely over western parts of Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region. Moderate rainfall of between 50 and 100 mm is forecast over Jalalaqsi district in Hiraan region; northern parts of both Jowhar and Cadale districts in Middle Shabelle region; northern parts of Wanla Weyn district in Lower Shabelle region; Galdogob and western parts of Galkacyo district in Mudug region; and northeastern border areas of Xudur district with Ceel Barde district in Bakool region. The middle sections of the Shabelle River catchment within Somalia and its upper catchments in Ethiopia is also likely to observe rains of moderate amounts. Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is expected over most parts of Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region; Galkacyo, Hobyo and Xaradheere districts in Mudug region; Ceel Buur district in Galgaduud region; Adan Yabaal district in Middel Shabelle region; Wanla Weyn district in Lower Shabelle region; northern parts of Xudur district, eastern parts of Ceel Barde district and northern parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool region; Ceel Waaq district and northern parts of Baardheere district in Gedo region and some localized parts of Bay region. Rainfall of lighter intensity is likely to be observed in areas adjacent to the above districts and regions including the middle sections of the Juba River catchment within Somalia and upper catchments outside the country. Most parts of the Shabelle River catchment in the Somalia-Ethiopia border are likely to receive similarly light rains. Dry conditions are likely over most parts of Somaliland including Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool and Sanaag regions; Bari, Nugaal, Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Bay and Banadir regions; Belet Xaawo, Dollow and Luuq districts in Gedo region; Rab Dhuure and Waajid districts and southern parts of Xudur district in Bakool region; Sablaale, Baraawe, Kurtunwaarey, Qoryooley, Marka and Afgooye districts in Lower Shabelle region; Balcad district in Middle Shabelle region; central parts both Ceel Dheer and Ceel Buur districts and eastern parts of Dhuusamarreeb district in Galgaduud region; and Jariiban district in Mudug region. Similar dry conditions are likely over most areas in the lower sections of the Juba River catchment within Somalia.

The Shabelle River at Jowhar has risen sharply, reaching 5.40 m, only 10 cm below the bank-full level of 5.50 m. This occurred despite dry conditions over the entire Somali and Ethiopian catchment. No natural overbank flow has been recorded yet, and upstream stations at Belet Weyne and Bulo Burte remain below flood-risk levels. The cause of this isolated sharp rise is still under investigation. Forecasts from NOAA-GFS indicate a westward-moving weather system that is likely to bring very intense rainfall on Monday, 22 September 2025 over Badhaadhe District. Light rains are expected in Kismaayo District (Lower Juba), Awdal Region (Somaliland), Laasqoray District (Sanaag), and northern Bari, with dry conditions elsewhere

FAO-SWALIM has updated the status of the river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers using available Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM). Five types of breakages have been identified; Open, Overflow, Canal Breakage, Canal Intake Flooding and Closed with sandbags. The open breakages are those that are currently open as observed on the latest VHR image available. All the observations reported refers to the latest suitable VHR satellite image available, which is indicated in the online database. A legend/Key for further explanation of the different types of breakages is provided. Along the Juba River, 105 open breakages, 14 canal flooding points, 31 river overflow and 2 points closed with sandbags were identified. While along the the Shabelle River 126 open breakages, 55 canal flooding points, 188 river overflow and 7 places closed with sandbags were identified. Users are advised that the methodology is biased towards Remote Sensing (RS) interpretation with only limited “ground truthing” due to access constraints. Open breakages might have been omitted in some cases where satellite images may not have been very clear (e.g. heavy cloud cover) or were not available.

According to the seasonal Outlook co-produced by FAO SWALIM, World Meteorological Organization (WMO), IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPA)C, and Government of Somalia, Gu 2025 was expected to be characterized by below normal rainfall, normal to delayed onset and above normal temperatures. There was a 45 % likelihood that most parts of the country were to observe below normal rains. There was even a higher likelihood (55 %) of drier conditions being observed over Gedo region, and some parts of Bay, Bakool, Hiraan and Awdal regions. However, there were chances of very isolated above normal rains in some parts of Puntland. There was a very low probability that cumulative Gu rainfall amount would exceed 200mm particularly over the Shabelle River Catchment. However, there were chances of an exceedance of 200 mm over the Juba River Catchment (Middle Juba and Lower Juba).

According to the NOAA-NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) forecast, sparse light rains are expected across the country with chances of moderate intensity over Lower Juba, Hiraan and Mudug. Dry conditions are generally likely over most parts of Puntland and Somaliland. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall are as follows: Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over most parts of Banadir region; Middle Juba region particularly Jilib and Bu’aale districts; Lower Shabelle region particularly Baraawe and Marka districts; eastern parts of Ceel Waaq district in Gedo region; Qansax Dheere, central parts of Diinsoor distirct, northern parts of Buur Hakaba district and Baydhaba town in Bay region; Xudur district in Bakool region; areas bordering both Belet Wayne and Bulo Burte districts; Galagaduud region particularly Dhuursamarreeb district, western parts of Ceel Buur and north-eastern pats of Ceel Dheer districts; eastern parts of Hobyo districts in Mudug region; Togdheer region particularly Buuhodle district, western parts of Owdweyne district and northern parts of Burco district; northern parts of Caynabo district in Sool region; and Sanaag region particularly Ceerigaabo district. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over most parts of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Nugaal, Bari and Middle Shabelle regions; Togdheer region particularly Sheikh and northern parts of Owdweyne district; Sanaag region particularly Ceel Afweyn, Laasqoray and southern parts of Ceerigaabo district; Xudun and Taleex districts in Sool region; most parts of Galdogob, Gaalkacyo, Jariiban and western parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region; Galgaduud region particularly Cabudwaaq, eastern parts of Ceel Dheer and Ceel Buur districts; Hiraan region particularly Jalalaqsi district; northern parts of Baydhaba district in Bay region; Saakow district in Middle Juba region; Gedo region particularly Doolow, Luuq, Baardheere and southern parts of Belet Xaawo district; and Afmadow district in Lower Juba region.

Based on NOAA-NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS), scanty rains are expected over some parts of the country with moderate rains expected in Sool region and areas at the border of Mudug and Nugaal regions. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over most parts of the Somaliland and south-central. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over most parts of Banadir region; Badhaadhe, Kismaayo and Jamaame districts in Lower Juba region; Lower Shabelle region particularly coastal parts from Baraawe, Marka and Afgooye districts; several parts of Baydhaba town and north-western parts of Buur Hakaba districts in Bay region; most parts of Xudun,Taleex, southern parts of Caynabo and northern parts of Laas Caanood districts in Sool region; central parts of Jariiban district and north-eastern parts of Gaalkacyo districts in Mudug region; central parts of Nugaal region particularly areas bordering Eyl, Garoowe and Burtinle districts; and Bari region particularly central parts of Bandarbeyla district and eastern parts of Iskushuban district. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over most parts of Awdal, Woooyi Galbeed,Togdheer,Sanaag, Galgaduud, Hiraan, Bakool, Middle Juba, Gedo, and Middle Shabelle regions; most parts of Xarardheere, Hobyo, Galdogob, and sothern parts of Gaalkacyo districts in Mudug region;most parts of Diinsoor, Qansax Dheere, southern parts of Buur Hakaba and northern parts of Baydhaba districts in Bay region; most parts of Lower Shabelle region particularly Sablaale, Kurtunwaarey, Qoryooley, Afgooye and Wanla Weyn districts; isolated areas of Garoowe,Eyl,and Jariiban districts and northern areas of Burtinle district in Nugaal region; most parts of Qardho, Calluula, Qandala, Bossaso, southern parts of Bandarbeyla and eastern parts of Iskusuban districts in Bari region and several parts Afmadow district in Lower Juba region.

Forecasts from NOAA GFS indicate a strong surge in southeasterly to easterly winds along the Somali coastline, beginning Friday 23 May and persisting through Sunday 26 May. Wind speeds are expected to exceed 25 knots (12.9 m/s) over coastal waters, with localized intensification to >30 knots (15.4 m/s) especially offshore of Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, and Banadir. Strong onshore winds may also affect Hobyo (Mudug), Eyl (Nugaal), and Bosaso (Bari). These winds may induce coastal waves exceeding 2 metres, particularly along the Indian Ocean coast between Kismayo and Hobyo, creating rough marine conditions.

According to NOAA-NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS), light rains are expected over some parts of Bari, Sool and Sanaag regions and the coastal parts of Lower Juba, Middel Juba, Lower Shabelle and Banadir regions. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over the rest of the country. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Figure 1) are as follows: Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over most parts of Banadir region; Jamaame district, and coastal parts of both Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts in Lower Juba region, Bu’aale and Jilib districts in Middle Juba region; Baraawe ,Marka, Sablaale,Kurtunwarrey, Qoryooley and Afgooye districts in Lower Shabelle region; several parts Jowhar and Balcad districts in Middle Shabelle region; Diinsoor and Buur Hakaba district and southern parts of Baydhaba district in Bay region; northern parts of Qardho district, northern areas of both Bandarbeyla and Iskushuban districts in Bari region; border areas of Ceel Afweyn and Ceerigaabo districts and southern parts of Laasqoray in Sanaag region; north-eastern parts of Burco district and northern parts of Buhoodle district in Togdheer region; most parts of Xudun and Taleex districts, north-eastern parts of Caynabo district and Laas Caanood town in Sool region; and its border areas with Burtinle district in Nugaal region. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over the rest of the country particularly Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Nugaal, Mudug, Galgaduud, Hiraan, Bakool, and Gedo regions. Dry conditions are also likely over most parts of Togdheer region particularly Sheikh and Owdweyne districts, south and north-western parts of Burco district and southern parts of Buuhoodle district; Ceel Afweyn and Ceerigaabo districts and northern parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region; Bossaso, Qandala and Caluula districts, southern parts of Bandarbeyla district and central parts of Iskushuban district in Bari region; northern parts of Caynabo district and eastern parts of Laas Caanood district in Sool region; most parts of Afmadow district and inland areas of both Baadhadhe and Kismayo districts in Lower Juba region; Saakow district in Middle Juba region; most parts of Qansax Dheere district and north-western parts of Baydhaba district in Bay region; Wanla Weyn district in Lower Shabelle region; and several parts of Cadale and Adan Yabaal districts in Middle Shabelle region.

According to the NOAA-NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) forecast, light to moderate rains are expected in some areas in the southern and central inland parts of the country and isolated areas in Somaliland. Dry conditions are anticipated to prevail over most areas in Puntland, Lower Juba region, and central coastal parts of the country. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Figure 1) are as follows: Moderate cumulative rainfall of 50 mm to 100 mm is likely to occur over isolated areas in Bay region particularly eastern parts of Diinsoor district and areas in Baydhaba-Buur Hakaba border; western parts of Rab Dhuure district and southern parts of Ceel Barde district in Bakool region; central parts of Owdweyne district inTogdheer region; and northern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region. Such moderate rains are expected to fall over the upper sections of the Juba River catchment in Ethiopia. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over most parts of Gedo, Middle Juba, Bay, Bakool, Lower Shabelle, Hiraan and Togdheer regions; some parts of Galgaduud region particularly the areas bordering Ceel Buur and Dhuusamareeb districts, and the eastern parts of Cadaado district; most parts of Galdogob district, areas bordering Gaalkacyo and Hobyo districts in Mudug region; parts of Awdal region particularly southern areas of both Borama and Baki districts; most parts of Sanaag region particularly Laasqoray district, eastern areas of Ceel Afweyn District, and western parts of Ceerigaabo district; most parts of Gebiley district and northern areas of Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region; most parts of Xudun district and southern areas of Laas Caanood in Sool region; and northern parts of Qandala district in Bari region. Rains of similar intensity are likely to fall over most areas within the catchments of both Juba and Shabelle River. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over most parts Lower Juba, Middle Shabelle and Nugaal regions; most parts of Galgaduud region particularly Ceel Dheer District and southern parts of Ceel Buur district; several parts of Mudug region particularly Xarardheere, Hobyo and Jariiban districts; most parts of Bari region particularly Bossaso, Qardho, Iskushuban ,Callula and southern areas of Qandala district; most parts of Taleex district and northern parts of Laas Caanood district in Sool region; western parts of Ceel Afweyn district and eastern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region; Woqooyi Galbeed region particularly Berbera and Hargeisa districts; and several parts of Awdal region particularly Zeylac and Lughaye districts.

Light to moderate rains is expected across central and southern regions this week, with intense storms possible in Middle Shabelle and Galgaduud. Dry and hot conditions persist in Puntland and Awdal, raising heat stress and water scarcity concerns. Rainfall prospects remain favorable for most of May.

According to the NOAA-NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) forecast, moderate (50 – 100 mm) to heavy rains (100 – 150 mm)are expected over Bay and Bakool regions and parts of Hiraan region. Light rains (less than 50 mm) are likely over the rest of the country except over most parts of Puntland and Awdal region where dry conditions are likely to prevail. Although the current and forecast position of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is outside the region of influence, the rains over Bay and Bakool may cumulate to more than 150 mm by the end of the forecast period. Other regional factors and intraseasonal atmospheric influences are likely to be favoring this increased onshore moisture transports and rainfall in the region. Although the performance of Gu rains has a weak connection with El nino southern Oscillation (ENSO), the weakening of La Niña during March and April seems to have favored moderate rains at the start of the season. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 2) are as follows: Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over several areas in the country including most parts of Togdheer, Sool, Galgaduud, Middle Juba and Banadir regions; southern parts of Hargeysa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region; Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region; some isolated parts in the western parts of Qardho district in Bari region; northern parts of Garoowe district and western parts of Burtinle District in Nugaal region; Gaalkacyo, Galdogob and Xarardheere districts and southern parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region; Jalalaqsi district and northern parts of both Belet Weyne and Bulo Burte districts in Hiraan region; northern parts of both Jowhar and Adan Yabaal districts and coastal parts of both Balcad and Adan Yabaal districts in Middle Shabelle region; eastern parts of both Wanla Weyn and Afgooye districts in Lower Shabelle region; western parts of Qansax Dheere district and southern parts of Dinsoor district in Bay region; Doolow district and southern parts of Baardheere district in Gedo region; Jamaame district, northern parts of Kismaayo district and southern parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region. Moderate cumulative rainfall of 50 mm to 100 mm is likely to occur over most parts of Bay region particularly Buur Hakaba district; most parts of Bakool region including Rab Dhuure and Ceel Barde districts; and most parts of Lower Shabelle region particularly Marka and Baraawe districts, southern parts of Sablaale district, and western parts of both Wanla Weyn and Afgooye districts; Luuq, Belet Xaawo and Garbahaarey districts, northern parts of both Ceel Waaq and Baardheere districts; south-eastern parts of Afmadow district; western parts of both Belet Weyne districts in Hiraan region; Middle Shabelle region particularly Cadale district, central parts of Jowhar, and inland parts of Balcad district; areas at the border of Ceel Buur and Dhuusamarreeb districts in Galgaduud region. It is important to note that similar moderate rains will also be observed over several parts of both Shabelle and Juba River catchments within the country and in Ethiopia. Heavy cumulative rainfall of between 100 and 150 mm is likely to be observed over most parts of Baydhaba district and northern parts of Buur Hakaba district in Bay region; eastern parts of Luuq district in Gedo region; Waajid, Xudur and Tayeeglow districts in Bakool region; western parts of Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region. Very heavy cumulative rainfall of over 150 mm is likely to be observed over some northern parts of Baydhaba district in Bay region; Xudur district and southern parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool region. There is a chance that the rains over these areas may exceed 200 mm by the end of the forecast period. Daily forecasts suggest that much of these rains may be observed on the 18 and 19 April with likelihood of flash flooding over prone areas. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over most parts Awdal and Bari regions; most parts of Lower Juba region particularly Badhaadhe district; Jariiban district in Mudug region, most parts of Nugaal region particularly Eyl district and eastern parts of Garoowe districts; some parts of Sanaag region particularly Ceel Afweyn district, northern parts of Laasqoray district and the coastal parts of Ceerigaabo district; and most parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region particularly Berbera and Gebiley districts and northern parts of Hargeisa district.

Based on the NOAA-NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) forecast, light to moderate rain is expected over several areas in the southern parts of the country with dry conditions expected to prevail over Somaliland and Puntland. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) are as follows: Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over several areas in the southern parts of the country including most parts of Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Bay, and Lower Shabelle regions; some parts of Gedo particularly Ceel Waaq and Bardheere districts; parts of Middle Shabelle region particularly Jowhar and Balcad districts; parts of Bakool region particularly Xudur and Ceel Barde districts; western parts of Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region; southern parts of Gebiley district and Hargeisa town in Woqooyi Galbeed region; Buuhoodle district and southern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region; northern coastal parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region. It is important to note that such rains are likely to fall over the Juba River catchment within and outside the country. While the rains over the upper and central catchment of the Shabelle River will be very light, they may increase in intensity over the lower sections in Middle Shabelle including Jowhar. Moderate cumulative rainfall of 50 mm to 100 mm is likely to occur over isolated areas in Lower Juba region particularly southern parts of Afmadow district; and areas bordering Sablaale and Baraawe districts and northern border areas of Kurtunwarey and Qoryooley districts in Lower Shabelle region. It is important to note that intense but isolated rains of above 100 mm may be observed over areas in Lower Juba bordering Kenya. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over most parts Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sanaag, Sool, Bari, Nugaal, Mudug and Galgaduud regions; most parts of Hiraan region particularly Bulo Burte and Jalaqsi districts and eastern parts of Belet Weyne; eastern parts of Middle Shabelle region particularly Adan Yabaal district and the northern parts of Cadale district; and some parts of Bakool region particularly Waajid, Rab Dhuure and Tayeeglow districts.

Flooding reported at Bayaxaaw and Raqayle villages downstream of Jowhar town. The floods have primarily resulted from a breakage, reported to have been created by riverine farmers diverting river water into irrigation canals during the recent dry spells. Communities in the affected villages are making efforts to close the breakage, but they have not succeeded so far. Although the river level at Jowhar gauging station has surpassed the moderate flood-risk threshold, no natural river overbank flows have been observed yet.