Given the recent evolution of warmer than average Sea- Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, most global climate models have confirmed the presence and persistence of El Niño conditions throughout the October - December 2023 season. Moreover, similar warming of ocean waters near the East African coastline, together with cooling down of the waters near the western Australian coastline, which technically defines a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), is expected to lead to above normal rains over most parts of East Africa. Somalia’s Deyr (October - December) “short rains” season is associated with the somewhat-faster southward movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which dictates much of the country’s climate. According to ICPAC, the climate outlook for the “Deyr Short Rains’’ season indicates an exceptionally high likelihood (85 %) of enhanced rainfall over southern parts of the country encompassing the catchments of both Juba and Shabelle Rivers where up to 10 consecutive rainy days are probable. Upstream of the river catchments across the Ethiopian border, 4 - 6 consecutive rainy days are expected with higher likelihood of cumulative amounts exceeding 150 mm. In terms of associated risks, the enhanced amounts, more so consecutive rainy days, over Juba and Shabelle River catchments within the country and across the Ethiopian border will likely lead to flooding as from the third week of October. However, the forecast dry conditions over the southern parts of Somalia where the two river catchments lie in the month of September offer some lead time for intervention measures to be put in place to mitigate the potential flood risks. The forecast dry conditions over the agricultural zones in the southern parts of the country in the month of September are also opportune for land preparation. The subsequent rains will likely lead to substantial recharge of water sources, replenished water catchment levels, and improved soil moisture conditions. These will create favorable conditions for grass regeneration, offering fodder for the livestock, and timely crop planting across the agro-pastoral livelihoods.

Somalia grapples with the looming impacts of an impending El Niño, exacerbating the ongoing climate change challenges. Recurrent riverine and flash floods, particularly in urban centers like Beletweyne and Jowhar, are of significant concern. Urgent action is needed to prepare for and mitigate the forthcoming El Niño floods, aiming to safeguard lives and mitigate economic losses. Key to this strategy is proactive flood management, involving timely evacuations to higher ground. Identifying suitable elevated areas serves a dual purpose, ensuring safety and facilitating aid delivery. In this regard a rigorous GIS & RS methodology by SWALIM considered nine crucial factors, such as historical flood extent, elevation, slope, topographic wetness index, drainage density, strategic boreholes, settlements, land cover, and roads, to isolate higher grounds suitable for evacuation. The resulting maps show safe areas for evacuation in case of flooding, while exercising discretion considering factors like proximity to schools, healthcare facilities, pest prevalence and any other unforeseen factors.

Rainfall Forecast: There is agreement among several forecast products that light to moderate rains of up to 100 mm is expected over the southwest state and central parts of the country, with some forecasting products anticipating more intense rains. The spatial variation of the consensus-based rainfall forecast is follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50 and 100 mm is expected over isolated areas in Galgaduud, Mudug and Hiraan regions. Specifically, such rains are likely over Ceel Buur district and southern parts of Cabudwaaq district in Galgaduud region, northern parts of Belet Weyne district in Hiran region, and northern parts of Jariiban district in Mudug region. Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is anticipated over Bakool, Hiraan, Galgaduud, Mudug, and Nugal regions. Rains of such intensity are also possible over northern parts of Bay region, southern parts of Bari region, and isolated areas in Sool, Togdheer and Woqqoyi Galbeed regions. Dry conditions are likely in extensive areas in the southern and northern parts of the country. In the north such dry conditions are expected over Awdal region, northeastern parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region, Sanaag and Bari regions. In the south, such dry conditions are likely over Gedo region, coastal parts of Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle, Middle Juba, and Lower Juba regions. However, there are chances of cloudiness leading up to light rains over some of these areas.

Review of the 2023 March-April-May (MAM) seasonal rainfall has demonstrated three key points: First, there was an early transition into the Gu (April-May-June) long rains season in Somalia this year. Secondly, above Long Term Mean (LTM) rainfall was received over Puntland and Somaliland and below LTM over South and Central Somalia. Thirdly, the observed rainfall was more in agreement with the forecast over South and Central Somalia and less over Somaliland. The early onset of the generally above-LTAM MAM rainfall led to substantial recharge of water sources, replenished water catchment levels, improved soil moisture conditions, creating favorable conditions for pasture regeneration, offering first line fodder for the livestock. It also favored land preparation and timely crop and fodder planting across the agro-pastoral livelihoods. However, the exceptionally heavy rains over both Shabelle and Juba River catchments in Ethiopian Highlands and the already-soaked soil conditions over the catchments within Somalia led to excessive overbank spillage resulting to devastating floods at Belet Weyne from 9th May, at Bulo Burti from 25th May and at Jalalaqsi from 26th May 2023. Flash floods occassioned by localised rains also occured in several places within Somalia like Bardheere from 23rd March 2023. The floods led to extensive damage to farmlands with earlier-grown crop and fodder and the grassland plains with devastating implications. Nonetheless, the MAM rains generally led to improved food security situation across the country particularly in the case of Somaliland where the observed rains were above LTM. The wetter than average projected rainfall conditions are likely to at least slow the loss of soil moisture and support agricultural and livestock productivity over South and Central Somalia over which below LTM Gu rains were observed. This bulletin presents both qualitative and quantitative review of the temporal and spatial variation of observed-, and verification of the forecast Gu rainfall season.

Light rainfall is predicted over the southern regions and some isolated areas in the north with dry conditions expected over most parts of Somalia during the forecast period. The spatial patterns of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is expected in the southern regions including: the eastern and coastal parts of both Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts, eastern and southern parts of Afmadow district, and the entire Jamaame district in Lower Juba region; Jilib district and Buáale district in the Middle Juba region; Diinsoor district and northern border areas of Buur Hakaba and Baydhaba districts in Bay region; Sablaale district and the entire coastal parts of Lower Shabelle region, and areas around Mogadishu in Banadir region. In the northern part of the country, similarly light rains are likely over southern parts of both Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed, the northern parts of both Ceerigaabo and Laasqoray districts over Sanaag region and areas bordering the three districts of Qandala, Iskushuban and Caluula in Bari region. Localized light rains in other parts of the country are as shown in the map. Dry conditions are expected over the rest of the country especially the entire Awdal region, many parts of Gedo, Bakool, Hiraan, Galgaduud, Mudug, Nugaal, Sool and Bari regions, northern Woqooyi Galbeed region and southern parts of Sanaag region.

Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is expected the southern regions including: Middle Juba region, the eastern and coastal parts of Lower Juba region, coastal parts of Lower Shabelle and Middle Shabelle regions, south and central parts of Bay region, some areas in eastern parts of Gedo region, and coastal parts of Galgaduud region and Ceel Dheer district in Mudug region. In the northern part of the country, similarly light rains are likely over southern parts of both Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed, the northern parts of both Ceerigaabo and Laasqoray districts over Sanaag region and areas bordering Iskushuban and Caluula distrcits in Bari region. Dry conditions are expected over the rest of the country..

Moderate rainfall expected over southern coastal regions with light rains predicted over most other parts of Somalia during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial distribution of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50 and 100 mm is expected over the areas next to the coastline in the southern part of the country. These areas include the eastern and coastal parts of both Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts, eastern and southern parts of Afmadow district, and the entire Jamaame district in Lower Juba region. Similarly, moderate rains are also likely over Jilib district and the isolated areas in the southern part of Buále district in the Middle Juba region and over several areas in southern and western parts of both Sablaale and Baraawe districts in Lower Shabelle region. Some isolated areas in the north particularly over Eerigavo in Sanaag region are also likely to receive moderate rains. Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is expected over several areas in Afmadow district and the western parts of Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts in Lower Juba region; Saakow district and northern parts of Buáale district in Middle Juba region; and southern and eastern parts of Baardheere district in Gedo region. Similar rains are likely over Qoryoley, Kurtunwaarey, Marka, Afgooye and Wanla Weyne districts in Lower Shabelle region; several areas in Middle Shabelle and Bay regions; non-coastal areas of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region; and non-coastal areas of both Xaradheere district and southern Hobyo district in Mudug region. In the northern parts of the country, such light rains are likely over southern and central parts of Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed; several isolated areas in Togdheer region; Xudun and Caynabo districts in Sool region; central border areas of Ceel Afweyne and Ceerigaabo districts, northern parts of both Ceerigaabo and Laasqoray districts in Sanaag region, areas in southern Bossaso district and northeastern parts of Iskushuban district in Bari region. Similarly lighter rains are also likely over the border areas between Garowe and Eyl districts in Nugaal region. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several areas in Afmadow district and the western parts of Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts in Lower Juba region; Saakow district and northern parts of Buáale district in Middle Juba region; and southern and eastern parts of Baardheere district in Gedo region. Similar rains are likely over Qoryoley, Kurtunwaarey, Marka, Afgooye and Wanla Weyne districts in Lower Shabelle region; several areas in Middle Shabelle and Bay regions; non-coastal areas of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region; and non-coastal areas of both Xaradheere district and southern Hobyo district in Mudug region. In the northern parts of the country, such light rains are likely over southern and central parts of Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed; several isolated areas in Togdheer region; Xudun and Caynabo districts in Sool region; central border areas of Ceel Afweyne and Ceerigaabo districts, northern parts of both Ceerigaabo and Laasqoray districts in Sanaag region, areas in southern Bossaso district and northeastern parts of Iskushuban district in Bari region. Similarly lighter rains are also likely over the border areas between Garowe and Eyl districts in Nugaal region. Dry conditions are expected over the entire Awdal region and several areas in Gedo, Bakool, Hiraan, Galgaduud, Mudug, Nugaal and Bari regions. In the northern parts of the country, such dry conditions are likely over Berbera district and the northern parts of both Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed; northern parts of Ceel Afweyne district, northwestern, southern and eastern parts of Ceerigaabo district and central and southern parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region; Caluula, Qandala, Qardho, and Bandarbeyla districts and southern parts of Iskushuban district and northern parts of Bossaso district in Bari region.

Light rainfall is expected over most parts of Somalia with moderate rains over isolated areas in northeastern and dry conditions over southwestern parts of the country during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is likely over Bari region particularly Iskushuban district, southern parts of Calulla district, eastern parts of Qandala district and southern parts of Bandarbeyle district. Moderate rains are also expected in isolated areas in the northwestern part of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region and over the areas on the border between Garowe and Eyl districts in Nugaal region. In the central regions, rains of similar amounts are expected over Cadale district in Middle Shabelle region, southern parts of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region, Qoryooley district and eastern parts of Kurtunwaarey and Baarawe districts in Lower Shabelle region. Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is expected over several areas in the Country with a tendency towards moderate over eastern parts of Bari region, northern parts of Sanaag region, Garowe and Eyl districts in Nugaal region, Ceel District in Galgaduud region, Cadale and Adan Yabaal districts in Middle Shabelle region, and several areas in Lower Shabelle region. Light rains are also expected over Central BeletWeyne district and Jalalaqsi district in Hiraan region. Dry conditions are expected in the southwestern parts of the country particularly over Gedo, Bakool and some parts of Hiraan regions including areas at their border with Bay region. Dry conditions are also likely in Mudug region particularly over Galdogob district, Gaalkacyo district and its border with Hobyo district. In Awdal region, dry conditions are expected over the northern parts of Zeylac and Lughaye districts. Similar conditions are likely over eastern part of Berbera in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Areas in the coastal strip of Bossaso, Qandala and Calulla districts in Bari region area also likely to remain dry. Moderate temperatures of between 24°C and 28°C are expected over several areas in the southern and northeastern parts of the country. Temperatures as low as 20°C are likely over some areas in the southern parts of Aw Woqooyi Galbeed regions, Sheikh district in northern Togdheer region and Ceerigaabo in Sanaag region and northern parts of Qandala district in Bari region. High temperatures of between 28°C and 32°C are expected in in Hiraan, Galgaduud, mudug, Nugaal, and Sool regions, southern and eastern parts of Bari region, and northern parts of both Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed regions. Similar temperatures copnditions are also likely over Dollow and Luuq districts in Gedo region. Temperatures as high as 36°C are likely over eastern parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region.

For close to two weeks, Belet Weyne town and its surrounding areas have witnessed widespread and devastating floods occasioned by the Shabelle River bursting its banks on the 9th May 2023. The river has remained at a bankful height of 8.30 meters up to the current date of May 22nd. The widespread flooding has resulted to property damage, and population displacement. Over the last two days, the flood water has begun slowly receding from Belet Weyne town and the surrounding areas back into the river, and progressively flow downstream. Subsequently, the river level at Bulo Burte has steadily risen, with today’s (22nd May) level just 13 cm below the high flood risk level. The river level at Jowhar has stagnated below moderate flood risk level (5.0 m) since the beginning of the Gu rain season. Today’s level is 3.75 m and is exactly equal to its normal mark in this season. Although the loss of flood water through overbank spillage between Belet Weyne and Bulo Burte explains the delay in Jowhar river level rise, it is expected that the high river levels at Bulo Burte will be transmitted to Jowhar and eventually to Balcad within the coming week. No rains have been reported in the last week over South Central Somalia including the entire stretch of Shabelle River from Belet Weyne to Balcad. Although light rains to dry conditions are predicted over the coming week, the steady rise in river levels at Bulo Burte poses a HIGH-RISK OF FLOODING in the town and the adjacent areas. A MODERATE RISK OF FLOODING is foreseen in Jowhar and the adjacent areas over the same period. Given the expected loss of water to overbank spillage and breakages along the Shabelle river channel, the risk of flooding reduces as the waters flow downstream to Balcad. Therefore, as the flood water recedes back to the river, residents of Belet Weyne are urged to beware of crocodiles that could have escaped the river on to the floodplains. They should also beware of the risks of drowning. As the residents prepare to relocate back to the previously flooded areas, housing structures need to be assessed for safety. In order to prevent water borne diseases, proper hygiene including disinfection measures such as chlorination of water sources should be adopted. The residents of Bulo Burte should prepare for potential evacuation by identifying safe routes to high grounds and gathering essential items, inform family, friends, and neighbors about the flood warning, secure property and consider assembling an emergency kit with necessary supplies. Residents are also strongly recommended to stay informed through regular bulletin updates at specified times, monitor thorough radio, television and internet for flood warnings. Any open or weak river embankments within Jowhar should be closed and reinforced.

According to the weekly forecast, moderate to heavy rainfall is expected over several areas in central and northwestern parts of Somalia with light rains over southern and northeastern parts during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Very heavy rainfall of more than 150 mm is likely to be observed over Sablaale and Baraawe districts in Lower Shabelle Region; western parts of Ceel Buur district and central parts of Dhuusamarreeb district in Galgaduud Region; Xarardheere district, northern parts of Hobyo district, eastern parts of Gaalkacyo district and western parts of Jariiban district in Mudug region. Rains of similar amounts are also predicted over Sheikh district in the northern part of Togdheer region and the northern border between Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed. Very heavy rains which may exceed 200 mm are expected over the northern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region. Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected over several areas in Mudug and Galgaduud regions; central parts of Hiraan region, the border between Afmadow, Kismaayo and Jamaame districts in Lower Juba region; Jilib district in Middle Juba region; coastal areas of Lower Shabelle region, the central areas of Adan Yabaal district and the border between Balcad and Cadale districts in Middle Shabelle region. Rainfall of similar amounts is likely over the northern part of Togdheer region; the northern border between Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed; southern parts of Awdal region; western parts of Ceel Afweyn and northern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is predicted over several areas in Nugaal region, central and northern parts of Awdal region, central and southern parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region, northern and southern parts of Togdheer region, central and western parts of Sanaag region, central and northern parts of Sool region, and some areas in the central parts of Bari region. Comparatively moderate rainfall is also expected over Galdogob district, western parts of Gaalkacyo district, northern parts of Jariiban district and western parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region, eastern parts of Galgaduud region, central and northern parts of Hiraan region, Balcad , Cadale and Adan Yabaal districts in Middle Shabelle region, near-coastal parts of the entire Lower Shabelle region, Buáale district in Middle Juba and Kismaayo, Jilib and eastern parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several areas in Bari region, eastern parts of Sanaag region, northern parts of both Woqooyi and Awdal regions, Bay region, central and eastern parts of Bakool region, southwestern parts of Hiraan region and its entire border with Middle Shabelle region, Wanla Weyn in Lower Shabelle region. In the south, similar light rains are expected over western Afmadow in Lower Juba, Saakow in Middle Juba region, northern Bardheere in Gedo region. Dry conditions are expected in the southwestern parts of the country particularly Gedo region, Waajid, Ran Dhuure, western parts of Ceel Barde and southern parts of Tayeeglow districts in Bakool region, and the coastal areas of Bari region. Moderate temperatures of between 24°C and 28°C are expected over several areas in the southern and northern parts of the country. Temperatures as low as 20°C are likely over some areas in the southern parts of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed regions, Sheikh district in northern Togdheer region and Ceerigaabo in Sanaag region. High temperatures of between 28°C and 32°C are expected in the central regions and some parts in the south and northern parts of the country.

Moderate to heavy rainfall expected over isolated parts of northern Somalia with light rains over central and dry conditions over southwestern parts of the country during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Very heavy rainfall of between 150 m and 200 mm is likely over central and northern parts of Awdal region, southern parts of Ceerigaabo district and western parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region, northern parts of Caynabo district in Sool region, Buuhoodle district in Togdheer region, and central parts of Bari region. Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is anticipated over several areas in Awdal region; northern parts of both Gebiley and Hargeiya districts in Woqooyi Galbeed; northern and southern parts of Togdheer region; several areas in Sool region; several areas in Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region; northern parts of Qardho district, western parts of Iskushuban district, southern parts of Qandala district and southwestern parts of Caluula district in Bari region; central Garowe district, southern Eyl district and southern parts of Burtinle district in Nugaal region; and Galdogob district in Mudug region. Moderate rainfall of between 50 and 100 mm is likely over southern Hargeisa in Woqooyi Galbeed region; Owdweyne in Togdheer region; northern parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region; Caluula district and southern parts of Qardho district in Bari region; northern parts of both Garowe and Eyl district and western parts of Burtinle district in Nugaal region; Jariiban and Garowe districts and southern parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region; and northern parts of Cabudwaaq in Galgaduud region. Similar moderate rainfall is likely over several areas in Middle Shabelle and Lower Shabelle regions. SOMALIA WEEKLY WEATHER FORECAST Valid From 24th to 30th May 2023 Moderate to heavy rainfall expected over isolated parts of northern Somalia with light rains over central and dry conditions over southwestern parts of the country. Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is expected over several areas in Lower Juba region, Middel Juba region, Bay region, eastern parts of Bakool region, Hiraan region, Galgaduud region, Hobyo district in Mudug region, and the coastal areas of Bari region and Berbera district in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Dry conditions are expected in the southwestern parts of the country particularly over Gedo region, Ran Dhuure and Waajid districts and southern parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool region, and western parts of Saakow district in Middel Juba region. Moderate temperatures of between 24°C and 28°C are expected over several areas in the southern and northern parts of the country. Temperatures as low as 20°C are likely over some areas in the southern parts of Awdal region, southern parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region, Sheikh district in northern Togdheer region, several areas in central Sanaag region (Ceerigaabo) and northern parts of Qandala district in Bari region. The coldest conditions (16°C to 20°C) are forecast over Erigavo in Sanaag region. High temperatures of between 28°C and 32°C are expected in in Hiraan, Galgaduud, mudug, and the coastal areas in the northern part of the country. Similar hot conditions are also likely over Dollow and Luuq districts in Gedo region.

There is a High Risk of Flooding along the Shabelle River at Belet Weyne Moderate rains received in Shabelle River catchment in the Ethiopian highlands and light rains observed in the areas around the Ethiopian borderhave sustained a steady rise in levels along Shabelle River. In the last four days, 40.5 mm of cumulative rainfall has been received at Belet Weyne; 22 mm on 5th, 8.5 mm on 6th and 10 mm on 8th May 2023. The river levels at Belet Weyne steadily increased from 6.38m on 26th April to 7.90m as reported today (8th May 2023). Today’s level is 60 cm above the high flood risk level (7.30 m) and just 40 cm below the bank full (8.30m) threshold. However, at 6.12 m and 3.75 m, the levels at Bulo Burti and Jowhar are 38 cm and 1.25 m below their moderate flood risk thresholds. Since 2nd May 2023 when the high flood risk level was reached at Belet Weyne, any increment in run off occasioned by the moderate rains across the Ethiopian border can potentially lead to river flooding. The information coming from the field indicates that the river flow is hitting the deck of two bridges in Belet Weyne with very high likelihood of river overflowing the banks and causing flooding that might affect Belet Weyne town and its surrounding areas. The Hirshabelle State, Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation is reported to be distributing pre-positioned sandbags to the vulnerable sites which have begun seeping the water into the town. Although these efforts may mitigate the effects of the flooding, population living in Belet Weyne town and its surrounding areas must still take precautionary measures. The rainfall forecast for the next three days (8th – 10th May) indicates light cumulative rain of about 10 mm over Belet Weyne and of about 20 mm over its catchment in the Ethiopian Highlands. Although there is high risk of flooding along Shabelle River at Belet Weyne currently, river levels are expected to stabilize to below moderate flood risk levels in the coming days given the above light to moderate forecast rainfall conditions.

After the continuous steady rise in its levels at Bulo Burte, the Shabelle River reached its bankful height on Thursday 26th May 2023. On the same day, 58.0 mm of rainfall was received at Bulo Burte station. Subsequent flooding was reported in four villages: Indha Ceel, Bagabeeso, Wadajir and Hagi Buube. The overbank flood water also hindered access in and out of Bulo Burte via the bridge. Downstream in Jalalaqsi, flooding was also reported in Wadajir Horseed, Howl Wadaq and Gumarey on the 27th May 2023). Access through the bridge at Jalalaqsi was also hindered by the flood water. The river levels at both Bulo Burte (Figure 1) and Jalalaqsi have remained at bankful height to date (29th May) with more flood impacts reported. For these four continuous days, the residents have been forced to use boats to gain access to and from both towns. The impacts of the floods (Map 1) that began with Shabelle River bursting its banks on the 9th May 2023 at Belet Weyne have been widespread and devastating. Valuable properties have been lost including farmlands and house destructions. The ensuing population displacement have triggered other social challenges including, unavailability of shelter, food, and clean water for use, increase in water borne diseases, and family disconnection for example. This comes even before the residents of Belet Weyne upstream of Bulo Burte have had a complete return to their normal lives. Having lasted for 15 days in Belet Weyne (9th till 24th May), it is expected that the bankful river levels at Bulo Burte and Jalalaqsi will be sustained for the same period, even though some of the flood water may have been lost through river breakages and overbank spillage in between. Flooding is expected to continue over the next one week with a HIGH RISK OF FLOODS extending to other flood prone areas in Bulo Burte, Jalalaqsi and the adjacent areas. The river level at Jowhar has stagnated below moderate flood risk level (5.0 m) since the beginning of the Gu rains, with today’s level (3.70 m) being far much below its normal mark in this season (4.2 m), but higher than last year level at this time of the year. It is however expected that the high river levels at Bulo Burte will be transmitted to Jowhar within three to five days and eventually to Balcad within the coming week. A HIGH-RISK FLOOD WARNING is therefore foreseen over the next one week for Jowhar and the adjacent areas Since the 58.0 mm rains observed at Bulo Burte on Thursday 26th May, dry conditions have prevailed in the last week over South Central Somalia including the entire stretch of Shabelle River from Belet Weyne to Balcad. Consequently, not much run off will sustain the river levels as the flood wave flows downstream to Balcad. A MODERATE-RISK FLOOD WARNING is therefore foreseen over the next one week for Balcad and the adjacent areas. Therefore, residents of the flooded areas in Bulo Burte and Jalalaqsi are urged to beware of crocodiles that could have escaped the river on to the floodplains. They should also beware of the risks of drowning. In order to prevent water borne diseases, proper hygiene including disinfection measures should be adopted e.g., chlorination of water sources. The residents of areas prone to, but not yet flooded, should move to higher grounds. Residents in these areas who receive this flood warning information should pass it on to family, friends, and neighbors, securing property, and considering assembling an emergency kit with necessary supplies. The residents and authorities should close any open breakages and reinforce the weak river embankments using sandbags provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in partnership with the Hirshabelle Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and other partners upstream and downstream of Jowhar and Balcad. The residents should also prepare for potential evacuation by identifying safe routes to high grounds and gathering essential items, inform family, friends, and neighbors about the flood warning, secure property and consider assembling an emergency kit with necessary supplies. Residents are also strongly recommended to stay informed through regular bulletin updates at specified times, monitor thorough radio, television and internet for flood warnings.

According to the weekly forecast, moderate to heavy rainfall is expected over several areas in northeastern parts of the country, with light rains over central and southern parts during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Very heavy rainfall of more than 150 mm is likely to be observed over some areas in Nugal and Bari regions in the northeastern parts of the country. In Bari region, these very heavy rains are likely over the border areas of eastern Qandala and Iskushuban districts and over Bandarbeyla district. In Nugaal region, such very heavy rains are expected over Eyl district and southeastern parts of Garowe district. Over Eyl district, the rains could actually exceed 200mm in areas like Dihlil and Bacad Weyne. Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected over some areas in Nugal and Bari regions in the northeastern parts of the country. Several areas in Bandarbeyla and some areas in eastern parts of Qandala district and northern and eastern parts of Iskushuban, and southern parts of Caluula district in Bari region will observe such heavy rainfall. Similarly heavy rainfall is likely over several areas in Eyl district and eastern parts of Garowe district in Nugaal region. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is likely over all other areas in Bari region except Bossaso district and over all areas in Nugaal region except Burtinle district. Moderate rainfall is also expected over Buhoodle district and southern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region, south most parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region, eastern parts of Laas Canood and Taleex districts in Sool region, Galdogob district and western parts of Garowe district, and northern parts of Jariiban district in Mudug region. In the central parts of the country, moderate rains are expected in the southern parts of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region and Cadale district in Middle Shabelle region. Rainfall of similar amount is expected over isolated areas in Qoryooley district, Kurtunwaarey district, and southwestern parts of Sablaale district in Lower Sheballe. Similarly moderate rains are likely over northern parts of Jilib district and southern parts of Buáale district, northeastern parts of Kismaayo district and southern parts of Badhaadhe district in Lower Juba region. Light rains of less than 50 mm is expected over several areas in the following regions: Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Galgaduud, Mudug, Sool and Togdheer. Light rainfall is also anticipated over Saakow district and northern parts of Buáale district in Middle Juba region, northeastern parts of Baardheere district in Gedo region, south, central and eastern parts of Bay region, and Belet Weyne and Jalalaqsi districts in Hiraan region. In the northern parts of the country, similarly light rainfall is expected over southern and southeastern parts of Sanaag region, northern parts of Bossaso, Qandala and Caluula districts in Bari region, southern parts of Hargeisa and Gebiley districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region, and southern parts of Baki and Borama districts in Awdal region. Dry conditions are expected in the southwestern parts of the country including Bakool region and several areas in Gedo and Hiraan regions, and Ceel Buur district in Galgaduud region. Dry conditions are also likely in the north most parts of the country particularly over Zeylac and Lughaye districts and northern parts of Baki district in Awdal region, Berbera district in Woqooyi Galbeed region, and Sheikh district in Togdheer region. Several areas in the western and northern parts of Sanaag region, as well as the northern coastal strip in Bari region, are also likely to remain dry. Moderate temperatures of between 24°C and 28°C are expected over several areas in the southern and northeastern parts of the country. Temperatures as low as 20°C are likely over some areas in the southern parts of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed regions, Sheikh district in northern Togdheer region and Ceerigaabo in Sanaag region and northern parts of Qandala. High temperatures of between 28°C and 32°C are expected in the central regions and northwestern parts of the country.

Since bursting its banks on May 9th, 2023, the Shabelle River’s water level at Belet Weyne (figure 1) has remained at a bankful height of 8.30 meters up to the current date of May 15th. Over the past week Belet Weyne town and its surrounding regions, has witnessed widespread and devastating floods (map 1). These floods have resulted in the destruction of homes, crops, and roads, as well as the displacement of numerous families and have impacted heavily on the transportation network. The river levels at Bulo Burti (figure 2), located about 100 km downstream of Belet Weyne, have shown a consistent increase from 5.74 meters on May 5th to 6.66 meters as of today, May 15th, 2023. The current reading at Bulo Burti (6.66 metres) surpasses the moderate flood risk threshold (put at 6.50 metres) by 16 centimetres . In contrast, at Jowhar, the reading today (3.75 metres) is more than 1 metre below the moderate risk level. However, it is anticipated that the water level at Bulo Burti will reach the high flood risk level in approximately two days, as the flood wave continues its downstream movement from Belet Weyne. Nevertheless, the presence of multiple river breakages downstream of Belet Weyne could mean that some water may escape the channel before reaching Bulo Burti. This scenario reduces the magnitude of flooding in the town compared to the situation witnessed in Belet Weyne. It is important to note that the floodplains located upstream of Bulo Burti remain highly susceptible to flooding. No rainfall has been reported in both Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti over the past week. The weather forecast for the next three days, from May 15th to 17th, 2023, predicts dry conditions across Somalia. Only a light cumulative rainfall of approximately 10 mm is expected much farther upstream in the Ethiopian Highlands, within the Shabelle River catchment area. Despite the absence of recent rainfall, flooding persists in Belet Weyne. There still remains a high risk of flooding in Bulo Burti and the surrounding floodplains. It is crucial for communities residing near riverbanks and low-lying areas to exercise utmost caution and take all necessary precautions to ensure their safety.

According to the weekly forecast, several areas in southern, central and northwestern parts of Somalia are expected to observe heavy (above 100 mm) to very heavy (above 150 mm) cumulative rainfall during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Very heavy rainfall of more than 150 mm is expected over several areas in the central part of Lower Shabelle region including Kurtunwaarey, Qoryooley and Afgooye districts. Similarly heavy rainfall is likely over several areas in the southern parts of Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed. Very heavy rainfall is also expected over isolated areas in northeastern parts of Ceel Barde district in Bakool region, southern parts of Bulo Burti district in Hiraan region, southern border between Ceel Afweyn and Ceerigabo districts in Sanaag region, Sheikh district in Togdheer region, and Baki district in Awdal region. The rains over the border between Gebiley and Hargeisa may actually exceed 200 mm. Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected in several areas of central Somalia including the entire Lower Shabelle region, northeastern parts of Baardheere district and isolated areas in Dollow and Luuq districts in Gedo region, Buur Hakaba district in Bay region, Hudur and Tayeeglow districts in Bakool region, eastern parts of Jilib district in Middle Juba region, western parts of all Belet Weyne, Bulo Burti and Jalalaqsi districts in Hiraan region, and southern parts of Cabudwaaq and Dhuusamarreeb districts in Galgaduud region. Similarly heavy rainfall is likely over southern parts of Ceerigaabo district and southern and western parts of Ceel Afweyn district in Sanaag region, entire Caynabo district in Sool region, central parts of both Owdweyne and Burco district in Togdheer region, southern parts of Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed, Baki, Borama and Lughaye districts in Awdal region. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is expected over several areas in Awdal region, Woqooyi Galbeed region, Togdheer region, western and central parts of Sanaag and Sool regions. Rainfall of equal amount is likely over Badhaadhe, Kismaayo and Jamaame districts and eastern parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, Saakow district, western parts of Jilib district and eastern parts of Buáale district in Middle Juba region, Dollow and Luuq districts and northeastern parts of Baardheere district in Gedo region, Diinsoor, Qansax Dheere and Baydhaba districts in Bay region, Middle Shabelle region. Comparable rainfall is expected over Waajid and Rab Dhuure districts and western parts of Ceel Barde district in Bakool region, eastern parts of all Belet Weyne, Bulo Burti and Jalalaqsi districts in Hiraan region, Cabudwaaq and Cadaado districts, western parts of Dhuusamarreeb district and southern parts of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region and Galdogob district in mudug region. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several areas in Mudug and Nugaal region, western parts of Bari region and eastern parts of both Sanaag and Sool regions. Dry conditions are expected in northern and eastern parts of Bari region including the coastal areas in Bandarbeyla, Iskushuban, Caluula, Qandala and Bossaso districts. High temperatures of between 28°C and 32°Care expected in southern and central parts of the country, and moderate temperatures of between 24°C and 28°C in the northern parts

The weekly outlook shows that most parts of the country are expected to receive less than 50 mm of cumulative rainfall during the forecast period (Map 1). The spread of the cumulative rainfall amounts are as follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm expected over isolated areas in the north-western and southern parts of the country. The areas in the northwestern part of the country are: northern Zeylac district, central Baki district and northwestern Hargeisa district. Areas in the southern parts of the country are: Belet Xaawo, Ceel Waaq districts, southwestern parts of Baardheere district, northern Jilib district and southern Buáale district, southeastern Afmadow district central parts of Kismayo and Badhaadhe districts. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several parts of Awdal, Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Gedo, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle and Hiraan regions. Rains of similar intensity are expected over central and northern Woqqoyi Galbeed, northern Togdheer region, northern border between Sanaag and Bari regions, central and western Galgaduud region, eastern Bakool region, southern Bay region, and the coastal strip of Mudug region. Dry conditions are expected in central parts of the country including most areas in Togdheer, Sool, Sannag, Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions. Similar conditions are expected over northern and southern parts of Galgaduud region, central areas of Hiraan region, western Bakool region, and northern Gedo region, central and northern Bay region. Moderate temperatures of between 20°C and 32°Care expected over most parts of Somalia. However, cold conditions with temperatures less than 20°C are expected over isolated areas in northern parts of the country particularly the southern Awdal-Woqooyi Galbeed regional border, northwestern Togdheer region, and isolated areas in northern Sanaag and Bari regions.

According to the weekly forecast, several areas in central and southern Somalia are expected to receive moderate rainfall of over 50 mm of cumulative rainfall during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts are as follows: Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected in some parts of southern Somalia including Gedo, Lower Juba, Upper Juba, Lower Shabelle and Bay regions. In the Gedo region, the areas include Ceel Waaq district, northern Baardheere, and the southern border between Garbahaarey and Luuq regions. In Middle Juba region, the areas include northern parts of Saakow district, central parts of Buáale district and the northern parts of Jilib district. Areas included in the Lower Juba region are southern and eastern parts of Afmadow district and central and northern parts of Kismayo district. Areas in western part of Diinsoor district and southern parts of Buur Hakaba in Bay region and western parts of Sablaale in Lower Shabelle region, and coastal parts of Hobyo and Xarardheere districts in Muduug region are also likely to observe rains of similar amounts. Very heavy rainfall of above 150 mm is likely in isolated areas in southern Somalia and particularly over central parts of Gedo region Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is expected over several areas in central and southern Somalia including; Gedo, Lower Juba, Upper Juba, Lower Shabelle and Bay regions, southern and eastern parts of Hiraan region, southern parts of Lower Shabelle region, and northern parts of Awdal region. Some areas in Bakool region and Galgaduud region, coastal areas in Muduug region, Sanaag region and northern parts of Bari region are also forecast to receive similar amounts of rainfall. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several parts of Bakool, Hiraan region, Middle Juba and Galgaduud, Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed regions. Similar rains are expected over central western parts of Sanaag region, northern parts of Togdheer region, northwestern parts of Sool region, and northwestern part of Bari region. Dry conditions are expected in several areas of the central and northern Somalia including non-coastal areas of Muduug, Nugaal, Bari and Sool regions. Similar dry conditions are forecast over several areas in central and eastern parts of Sanaag region, central and southern parts of Togdheer region, and some areas in the southwestern parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region. Moderate temperatures of between 20°C and 32°C are expected over most parts of Somalia. However, cold conditions with temperatures less than 20°C are expected over very isolated areas in northern Sanaag and Bari regions.

According to the weekly forecast, several areas in southern Somalia are expected to observe moderate (above 50 mm) to heavy (above 100 mm) cumulative rainfall during the forecast period. The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected in some areas of southern Somalia including Ceel Waaq district and eastern parts of Bardheere district in Gedo region, eastern parts of Diinsoor district in Bay region, northern parts of Saakow district, southern parts of Buáale district and northern parts of Jilib district in Middle Juba region, and western parts of Jamaame district, southeastern parts of Afmadow district, north parts of Kismaayo and most parts of Badhaadhe district in Lower Juba region. Very heavy isolated rainfall of above 150 mm is likely in some of the above areas particularly over the eastern parts of Bardheere district in Gedo region and southeastern parts of Bu’aale district in Middle Juba region. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is expected over Middle Juba region, several areas in central and southern Gedo, eastern, southern and western Lower Juba region, central and western parts of Bay region, western and eastern coastal parts of Lower Shabelle region, and southwestern parts of Middle Shabelle region. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, Belet Xaawo, Garbahaarey, Luuq and Dollow districts in Gedo region, several parts of Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, and Bay regions, Rab Dhuure and Waajid districts, western parts of Xudur district and southern parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool region, Bulo Burti district in Hiraan region, southern parts of Ceel Buur district, northern parts of Ceel Dheer district and the coastal strips of Galgaduud region and southern Mudug region. Similar moderate rains are also expected over northern parts of Hargeisa district Woqooyi Galbeed region, Sheikh district and northern parts of Owdweyne and Burco districts in Togdheer region. Dry conditions are expected in central and northern parts of the country including Bari, Nugaal and Sool regions, several areas in Awdal, Sanaag, central and southern parts of Togdheer region, northern and southern parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region, and vast non-coastal parts of Mudug region. Moderate temperatures of between 24 oC and 28 oC are expected in north and eastern parts of the country with cold conditions (temperatures less than 20 oC) likely very isolated areas in northern Sanaag and Bari regions. Moderate temperatures of between 28 ℃ and 32 ℃ are expected over central and southern Somalia.

Based on climatology the fourth week of March marks the end of Jilal Season. However this year there has been an early transition into the Gu (April-May-June) long rains season in Somalia. Several parts of the country received moderate rains over the last week with fourteen stations receiving more than 1 mm of rain as is shown in Table 1. The heaviest rains were recorded in Gedo and Bay regions specifically Bardheere (86 mm), Wanle-Wayne (47.3 mm), Luuq (34 mm) and Dollow (23.1 mm). Other stations that recorded over 10 mm of rainfall include Belet Weyne (18 mm) in Hiran, Iskushuban (17 mm) in Bari, Buhoodle (14.7 mm) and Las Anod (10.5 mm) in Sool regions. Continued dry conditions were observed over Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Nugaal, Galgaduud, Bakool, Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba regions. Based on ICPAC’s rainfall forecast for the next seven days (Map 1), it indicates that most parts of the country will receive more than 10 mm of cumulative rainfall. The spread of the cumulative 7 day rainfall amounts are as follows: Light rainfall of between 10 mm and 50 mm are expected over Nugaal, Mudug, Sanaag, southern and eastern Galgaduud, southern parts of Middle Shabelle and Lower Shabelle northern parts of Middle Shabelle, most parts of Gedo and Middle Juba, northern and southeastern parts of Bari, most parts of Sool and central parts of Togdheer and the northern most parts of Woqooyi Galbeed and Awdal. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 150 mm are anticipated over most parts in Lower Juba, Bakool, Hiraan, Woqooyi Galbeed, southeastern Gedo, western parts of Galgaduud, southern Awdal, southern and northern parts of Togdheer and some areas in southwestern and north eastern Bari. Heavy rainfall of over 150 mm anticipated in isolated pockets in the northern Bakool, western Galgaduud, southern Awdal, southwestern and north eastern Bari regions. Moderate temperatures of between 20 °C and 32 °C are expected over most parts of Somalia. However, cold conditions with temperatures less than 20 °C are expected over isolated areas in northern parts of the country particularly the southern parts of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed, northwestern Togdheer, central areas in the northern Sanaag and Bari. The heavy rains received over the last few days on both sides of the Ethiopia-Somali border resulted into a sharp rise in river levels along Juba. In Dollow and Luuq stations, Gedo region, the river rose by over 2.5 m within 24 hours between 18th and 20th March. Dollow recorded 2.94 m increase, from 1.94 m on 18th March to 4.88m on 20th March, surpassing the moderate flood risk level. In Luuq the river level rose from 1.96 m to 4.5 m on 19th and 20th March respectively. The levels have slightly reduced in both stations (4.02 m in Dollow and 4.4 m in Luuq) over the last 24 hours. However, with the current forecast more water is expected from the Ethiopian catchment and within Somalia, posing a moderate risk of floods in the upper reaches of the river. Along Shabelle the river levels are still low, with no immediate risk of flooding. The heavy rains observed over Bardheere (86 mm) have been reported to lead to destruction of property and possible loss of life. Based on climatology, these rains represent a wetter than usual conditions. The observed and forecast wet conditions together with the cold conditions (temperatures less than 20 °C) expected over isolated areas in northern parts of the country particularly the southern parts of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed, northwestern Togdheer, central areas in the northern Sanaag and Bari are likely to lead to partial recharge of surface water sources and vegetation regeneration giving a glimmer of hope for human and livestock survival. However, high temperatures (about 32 °C) that are forecast to succeed the wet conditions may lead to rapid evaporation thereby leaving no soil water to support vegetation regeneration.

Heavy rains received in Gedo region and other areas around the Ethiopian border over the last week resulted to a sharp rise in Juba river levels. Over the last 24 hours Bardheere station recorded heavy rainfall (92 mm) leading to significant flooding in the Bardheere town and surrounding areas. The river levels as reported this morning at Bardhere (9.00 m) and Dollow (5.14 m) surpass the high flood risk threshold for the two stations. These floods are reported to have caused significant destruction of property and farmlands. According to our sources, over the last four days, the floods in Bardheere have caused a loss of 13 lives. The risk of flooding along the entire reach of the Juba river remains high throughout this week, as the flood wave moves downstream. Therefore, communities residing along the Juba riverine areas must exercise extra caution as the water levels continue to rise. Along Shabelle river, levels have started rising gradually, but the risk of flooding remains low in the coming week. The rainfall forecast for the next three days indicates moderate to heavy rains over the Ethiopian highlands and within the Somalia-Ethiopia border. These rains will lead to sustained high river levels along the Juba and a rise in Shabelle river where the levels are currently low. In Bay and Lower Juba regions, isolated heavy rains of up to 150 mm are expected in the next three days and may result to flash floods.

Most parts of the country are expected to receive less than 50 mm of cumulative rainfall during the forecast period (Map 1). The spread of the cumulative rainfall amounts are as follows: Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several parts of Lower and Middle Juba, Gedo, Bay, Bakool, Lower and Middle Shabele, Sanaag, and Togdheer regions, southern and central parts of Hiraan region, central areas of Galgaduud region, and isolated areas in northern Bari region, central and western parts of Sool region. Moderate rains of between 50 mm and 100 mm is predicted over isolated areas in the north-western parts of the country. Such rains are expected in the southern parts of Awdal, central and southern parts of Woqooyi Galbeed, localized areas in western and northern parts of Sanaag region, western parts of Gedo region and southwestern parts of Lower Juba region. Heavy rains of between 100 mm and 150 mm are likely over Isolated pockets in Baki and Borama districts in Awdal region, and southern parts of Gebiley in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Dry conditions are expected in central parts of the country including most areas in Nugaal and Mudug regions, northern areas of Hiraan and Galgaduud regions, southern areas of Bari region and eastern areas of Sool region. Moderate temperatures of between 20 °C and 32 °C are expected over most parts of Somalia. However, cold conditions with temperatures less than 20 °C are expected over isolated areas in northern parts of the country particularly the parts of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sanaag and Bari regions.

FAO-SWALIM, the Somalia Water and Land Information Management, has completed an analysis and mapping project of river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle rivers. The project utilized Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to identify and classify the breakages into four categories: open, canal flooding, overflow, and closed with sandbags. The open breakages are those that are currently open and were observed on the latest VHR image available. The observations reported refer to the latest suitable VHR satellite image available, which is indicated in the online database. The map identified a total of 62 open breakage points, 36 on the Shabelle River and 26 on the Juba River, which require immediate attention. In addition, 15 overflow points and 39 canal flooding points were identified during this season. The Horn of Africa region has experienced five consecutive poor rainy seasons, resulting in severe hydrological drought conditions in Somalia and neighboring countries. The Juba and Shabelle rivers, which have their headwaters in the Ethiopian highlands, have remained near or below the long-term average since the beginning of 2023, negatively impacting agriculture production, domestic and livestock water use for the riverine communities. However, the low river levels provide an opportunity to repair the river breakages and weak embankments before the next rainy season. It is important to note that the methodology used in this analysis, is biased towards remote sensing interpretation, with limited "ground truthing" due to difficulties in accessing the areas. Open breakages may have been omitted or classified as potential in some cases where satellite images were unavailable or not clear due to heavy cloud cover or dense vegetation.

Somalia’s Gu (April-May-June) is the main wet season in the country, and is critical in supporting agricultural activities and replenishing water and pasture. The season begins as early as the second half of March, at the tail end of the Jilal Season, and the rains intensify in April with the onset progressing north eastwards almost mimicking the south-north progression of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) that follows the overhead sun. Gu rainfall cessation occurs in June in most parts of the country, with the north- eastern coastline receiving the least amount of rainfall during this season. According to the recently released Seasonal Climate Forecast issued by IGAD’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), there is a 50% likelihood that below normal rainfall (drier than normal conditions) will be observed over most parts of Somalia as is evidenced by the yellow coloration shown in Map 1. Over the northern parts of Middle Shabelle there is greater likelihood (60%) of observing such dry conditions. In the north eastern part of the country, southern Togdheer and Lower Juba there are equal probabilities of below normal, normal and above normal rains over most areas (denoted by white coloration). The above rainfall conditions will be accompanied by warmer than normal surface temperatures (55% likelihood) over much of the country, with increased chance of up to 70% over the northern areas. Drought analysis using SPI have shown moderate multi- season drought conditions in the southwestern Somalia (Gedo and Juba regions) and severe conditions over Sanaag region. Seasonal climate scientists have observed that the poor forecast 2023 Gu rains are comparable to the forecast conditions of the years 2017 and 2021. However, due to the poor predictability of the Gu rain season, the forecast is expected to have high spatial variability. Further, the rainfall forecasts categories vary over regions; 170 mm and 195 mm thresholds are applicable over Somalia. It is worth noting that this forecast is designed for a regional audience that addresses the rainfall totals summed over the three-month period from March to May 2023.

Most parts of south and central Somalia received light to moderate rains over the last one week. Some of the stations that recorded good rainfall amounts in the past week include Bulo Burti 28mm, Balad 19mm, Bardheere 18mm, Luuq 13.5mm and Jowhar 9mm. Widespread rains were also received in Bay, Middle Juba and Lower Juba regions during the week. In Somaliland and Puntland there has been a reduction in rainfall amounts with most stations recording little or no rains. Most regions in Somaliland and the southern parts of the country have experienced pasture regrowth and replenishment of water catchments, and this has led to a reduction in water and pasture stress. However, more rains with good intensity and distribution are required to bring to an end the current drought conditions as the amounts received are still inadequate to alleviate the condition especially in sustaining pasture and crop growth. The central regions of Nugaal, Muudug, Galgaduud and southern parts of Bari region have not received any significant rains and the drought conditions are worsening by day. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate to heavy rains in the southern regions. The coastal areas of Somaliland and northern Puntland are also expected to receive moderate to heavy rains. Exceptional cumulative rains are foreseen in Awdal especially in areas bordering Djibouti, which may result to flash floods. The central regions and inland areas of Puntland will receive minimal rains during the forecast period. Ethiopian highlands will receive moderate rains during the week in focus. Given the rainfall forecast, the river levels in both Juba and Shebelle are expected to increase slightly towards the end of the week with no risk of flooding.