According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, light rainfall is expected over isolated areas in Lower Juba and Bay and along the eastern coastal parts of the country with dry conditions likely to prevail elsewhere during the coming week (Map 3). As the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) moves further south, the Northeast monsoon will develop further with strengthened wind conditions particularly at Eyl district in Nugaal region and Bandarbeyla district in Bari region. The light rains along the narrow upper eastern coastal areas are therefore likely to be favoured by the moisture influx associated with these winds. However, the present and forecast forward propagation of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is likely to suppress moisture availability with very low chance of significant rainfall in the next 2 weeks. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 3) are as follows: Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over isolated areas in Lower Juba region and in Dinsoor district in Bay region. Similar rains are likely over a narrow strip along the eastern coastal parts of the country particularly at the following areas: Adan Yabaal district in Middle Shabelle region, Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region, Hobyo district in Mudug region, Eyl district in Nugaal region, and Bandarbeyle and Caluula district in Bari region. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over the rest of the country particularly Gedo, Bakool, Lower Shabelle, Hiraan, Sool, Sanaag, Togdheer, Woqooyi Galbeed and Awdal regions and inland areas of the following regions: Middle Shabelle, Galgaduud, Mudug, Nugaal and Bari.

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS forecasts, only very light rains (<10 mm) are expected over extremely narrow northern coastal parts of Somalia during the coming week (Map 2). Dry conditions will dominate the rest of the country as Somalia remains under a La Niña Watch phase. As the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) moves further south, the Northeast monsoon will develop further with strengthened wind conditions particularly at Eyl district in Nugaal region and Bandarbeyla district in Bari region. The light rains along the narrow northern coastal areas are therefore likely to be favoured by the moisture influx associated with these winds. However, the present and forecast forward propagation of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is likely to suppress moisture availability with very low chance of significant rainfall in the next two (2) weeks.

According to ICPAC WRF forecasts, light rains (of less than 10 mm) are expected over some areas in the north and south with chances of up to 50 mm over some areas in Lower Juba and Middle Juba regions during the coming week. Dry conditions will dominate the rest of the country as Somalia remains under a La Niña Watch phase. As the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) moves further south, the Northeast monsoon will develop further with strengthened wind conditions particularly at Eyl district in Nugaal region and Bandarbeyla district in Bari region. However, the present and forecasted weakening of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is likely to suppress moisture availability with a very low chance of significant rainfall in the next two (2) weeks.

The levels along Juba River have demonstrated notable variations when compared to the long-term mean (LTM) and last year’s El Niño-influenced behaviour. The level at Dollow is 40 cm above high flood risk level (5.00 m) today (11 November 2024) having rose sharply from 4.08 m on 4 November to 5.40 m today. A similar behaviour is expected at Luuq, where the level today is at moderate flood risk level (5.50 m) having rose sharply from 4.20 m on 4 November to 5.50 m today. This increase is occasioned by moderate cumulative rainfall over its catchment in the Ethiopian highlands and light rainfall within Somalia. Moderate rainfall is expected over the Juba River catchment in the second week of November. However, with the further development of La Niña, these rains may be short-lived. Considering the lag effect of previous rains, the light to moderate rainfall forecast over Juba River catchment in Ethiopian Highlands and within Somalia will generate moderate runoff enough to sustain the high river flows at the upper reaches of Juba River within the coming week. While the high flows will be transmitted downstream to Bardheere, Saakow, Bualle and finally to Jilib in the long run, less intense rains are expected in the second half of November 2024. There is therefore SUSTAINED HIGH RIVER FLOWS at Dollow and MODERATE RIVER FLOWS at Luuq with expected rise at Bardheere in the coming week. Although high river flows do not necessarily translate to riverine flooding, day-by-day rainfall and river level monitoring is advised. Notable fluctuations have also been observed along the Shabelle River in recent weeks compared to the LTM, last year’s conditions influenced by El Niño, and even last week. After a slight drop of the high flows on 29 October 2024, the Shabelle River level at Belet Weyne today (7.00 m) is 50 cm above moderate flood risk level (6.50 m) and only 30 cm below high flood risk level (7.30 cm). This behaviour is driven by the occurrence of wet and dry spells in its catchment within Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. The levels today at Bulo Burte (5.35 m) and Jowhar (4.38 m) are still well below flood risk levels. Moderate rainfall is expected over the Shabelle River catchment in the second week of November. However, with further development of La Niña, the rains may be short-lived. Considering the lag effect of previous rains, the light to moderate rainfall forecast over Shabelle River catchment in Ethiopian Highlands and within Somalia will generate moderate runoff enough to sustain the river flows at the upper reaches of Shabelle River within the coming week. While the high flows will be transmitted downstream to Bulo Burte, Jalalaqsi, Jowhar and finally to Balcad in the long run, less intense rains are expected in the second half of November 2024. There is therefore SUSTAINED MODERATE RIVER FLOWS at Belet Weyne with expected rise at Bulo Burte in the coming week. Although high river flows do not necessarily translate to riverine flooding, day-by-day rainfall and river level monitoring is advised.

The El Nino driven 2023 Deyr rains followed by good 2024 Gu rains, led to replenishment of both surface and ground water sources in Somalia. The spatial variability of the rains however meant different implications on the different aquifers across the country. In Somaliland, the good temporal and spatial distribution of the rains ensured good recharge of ground water sources in most areas. The Karan rains that fall during the normal Hagaa dry period ensured continued replenishment of the ground water sources. South and central Somalia also received average to above average rains in most of the monitored stations. However in Puntland , the below normal rainfall received during this period led to minimal recharge of ground water sources. Between May and September 2024, FAO SWALIM has installed and started the hourly monitoring of 35 boreholes across Somalia. The installation of the hardware is complete, and majority of the stations transmitting data online. There are however few with technical hitches either in the data recording or transmission, and these are being sorted to ensure complete network functionality by end of November 2024. The installed groundwater level monitoring stations provide near real-time data on aquifer fluctuations, enabling efficient and effective management of the water resources. The collected data is analyzed to track changes in aquifer storage, identify areas of potential depletion, and assess the impact of pumping and recharge activities.

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, rainfall for the upcoming week is expected to be moderate in parts of Bay and Lower Shabelle and light over Lower Juba, Gedo, and Middle Juba regions, as well as isolated areas of the Juba and Shabelle River basins. Most of northern Somalia is expected to remain largely dry. The observed rainfall during the previous week is linked to the arrival of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which enhanced moisture influx into southern and central Somalia. However, the weakening of the MJO phase, as indicated by the latest ECMWF forecast, implies less intense rains in the coming weeks. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) are as follows: Moderate cumulative rainfall of 50 mm and above is possible over for south-central parts of the country including the border areas of Dinsoor and Qansax Dheere districts in Bay region and Bardheere district in Gedo region. Similar rains are also likely over Sablaale and Baraawe disctricts in Lower Shabelle region. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is likely over most parts of Lower Juba region, Dinsoor, western parts of Buur Hakaba district and northern parts of Baydhaba district in Bay region; Sablaale, Baraawe, Kurtunwaarey and Marka districts in Lower Shabelle region; Garbahaarey and Ceel Waaq districts in Gedo region; and eastern parts of Ceel Barde district and southern parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool region. Light but very localized rains are possible over central parts of Belet Weyne district and southwestern parts of Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, eastern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region, central parts of Ceel Afweyn district in Sanaag region, and narrow coastal parts of Mudug and Nugaal regions and narrow northern coastal parts of Bari region. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over Middle Shabelle, Galgaduud, Sool, Awdal and Woqqoyi Galbeed regions, non-costal parts of Mudug, Nugaal and Bari regions, and most other parts of Hiraan, Togdheer and Sanaag regions. Dry conditions are also possible over Saakow district in Middle Juba region, western parts of Bardheere district in Gedo region, Rab Dhuure, Waajid and Xudur districts and northern parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool region, southern parts of Baydhaba district and eastern parts of Buur Hakaba district in Bay region, Jalalaqsi district, most other parts of Bulo Burte district and eastern parts Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region.

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, light rainfall is expected over several areas in the south and central regions and in some parts of Somaliland during this last week of November. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over Puntland, Galmudug and Sool-Sanaag regions. The observed rainfall during the first half of November was likely linked to the arrival of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which enhanced moisture influx into southern and central Somalia. The weakening and forward propagation of the MJO in this last week of November, as indicated by the latest ECMWF forecast, is likely to lead to less intense rains in the coming weeks. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) are as follows: Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over several areas in the following regions: Gedo, Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Bay, Bakool, Lower Shabelle, Hiraan, Middle Shabelle, Togdheer, Woqooyi Galbeed and Awdal. The rains over the central parts of Gedo and northern parts of Lower Juba may be intense leading up to moderate amounts of 50 mm or more. It is important to note that similar rainfall amounts are likely over some areas within the catchments of both Juba and Shabelle Rivers Dry conditions are likely to prevail over Bari, Nugaal, Mudug, Galgaduud, Sool, and Sanaag regions and Buhoodle district, northern and southern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region, Gebiley and Berbera districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region, Borama district, southern parts of Zeylac district and central parts of Baki district in Awdal region, central parts of Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region, Jowhar and Balcad districts in Middle Shabelle region, northern parts of Tayeeglow district and Rab Dhuure district in Bakool region, western parts of Dinsoor district and eastern parts of Buur Hakaba district in Bay region, northern parts of Badhaadhe district and southern parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, western parts of Saakow district, northern parts of Bu’aale district, and northern parts of Jilib district in Middle Juba region.

According to NAA-NCEP GFS, rainfall is expected to continue over most parts of Somaliland with a sustained spread of light rains over Hiran, Bay and Bakool regions. The expected eastward and southward distribution of the rains from Somaliland during this time of the season seems to have been hindered by a poorly organized Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Cloudiness in the south, particularly over Lower Juba, Middle Juba and Gedo regions will only translate to light rains. However, there are chances of somehow intense rains in the second week of November. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall are as follows: Heavy cumulative rainfall between 100 mm to 150 mm is expected over southern parts of both Borama and Baki districts in Awdal region, southern half of Gebiley district and southwestern parts of Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Similarly heavy rain is likely over the southern border areas of Hargeisa and Owdweyne district in Togdheer region. The rains in some of these areas is likely to be intense leading up to up to 200 mm by the end of the week. It is important to also note that such intense rains are also likely over some isolated areas within the middle portions of Shabelle River catchment in Ethiopia. Moderate rainfall between 50 and 100 mm is likely over the following most parts of Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region, southern halves of both Baki and Borama districts in Awdal region, Sheikh and western parts of Owdweyne district in Togdheer region, southwestern parts of Baki in Awdal region. Most parts of the northern sections of the middle portions of Shabelle River catchment in Ethiopia are expected to receive such moderate rains. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over vast areas in Togdheer and Bakool regions, northern half of Awdal region, northern ranges areas in Sanaag region, central parts of Sool region, and Galkacyo district in Mudug region. Isolated rains over Hiraan, Bay, Gedo, Middle Juba and Lower Juba regions are also likely to cumulate to less than 50.0 mm at the end of the forecast week. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over vast areas in Bari, Nugaal, Mudug, Galgaduud, Banadir, Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle, , Middle Juba, Lower Juba, and Gedo regions and southern parts of Bay region. It is important to note that except for northern ranges in Sanaag region, the coastal parts of the country are likely to remain dry.

Light rainfall is expected over isolated areas in the southern and along the eastern coastal parts of the country with dry conditions likely to prevail elsewhere during the coming week, according to NOAA-NCEP GFS. While ICPAC’s forecast anticipates moderate rainfall of more than 50 mm over the same areas, the rains in first week of December are likely to be light in intensity with reduced moisture influx because of the forecast forward propagation of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) are as follows: Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over isolated areas in Middle Juba region, Badhaadhe and Afamadow districts in Lower Juba region, Dinsoor and Baydhaba districts in Bay region, Dollow, Luuq and Belet Xaawo districts in Gedo region, Marka district in Lower Shabelle region, and in Xudur district in Bakool region. Rains of similar intensity are likely over the eastern coastal areas including Eyl district in Nugaal region, Bandarbeyla, Iskushuban and Caluula district in Bari region. The coastal cloudiness and rains may stretch all the way to Banadir in the first half of the forecast week. The rains over isolated areas in Middle Shabelle region and Dollow district in Gedo region may intensify to moderate amounts (above 50 mm) by the end of the forecast period. It is important to note that some of the areas likely to receive pockets of light to moderate rainfall fall within the catchments of Juba River. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over most areas in the following regions: Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, Sanaag, Mudug, Galgaduud, Hiraan and Middle Shabelle. Similar dry conditions are also likely to prevail over most inland parts of both Bari and Nugaal regions; and in some areas in Kismaayo district in Lower Juba; Saakow district in Middle Juba; Bardheere, Ceel Waaq and Garbahaarey districts in Gedo region; Sablaale, Baraawe, Kurtunwaarey, Qoryooley, Afgooye and Wanla Weyn districts in Lower Shabelle region; Qansadheere district in Bay region;and Waajid, Rab Dhuure, Ceel Barde and Tayeeglow districts in Bakool region.

Moderate cumulative rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is expected over southern parts of Lower Shabelle region particularly Sablaale and Baraawe districts, and the northern coastal parts of Lower Juba region particularly Jamaame district. In some of these southern coastal parts the rains may cumulate to above 100 mm. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is likely over most of the areas in Bay, Bakool and Banadir regions, Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts in Lower Juba region, Jilib district in Middle Juba region, Afgoye and Wanla Weyne in Lower Shabelle region, Garbaharey and Ceel Waaq districts in Gedo region, Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region, Dhuusamarreeb, Cabudwaaq and Ceel Dheer districts in Galgaduud region. Light rains may also be observed in very isolated areas in the following places: Laas Canood district in Sool region, coastal parts of Mudug region at Hobyo district, elevated areas in the northern parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region, and Bossaso district in Bari region. It is important to point such light rainfall is also expected to fall over most parts of the Juba and Shabelle River catchments within Somali and in Ethiopia. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over vast areas in the north including Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool and Sanaag regions in Somaliland, and Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions in Puntland. Dry conditions are also likely over Middle Shabelle region, Galgadud region particularly in Cadaado and Ceel Buur districts, Bulo Burte and Jalalaqsi districts in Hiraan region, Qoryooley and Kurtunwaarey districts in Lower Shbaelle region, Dollow, Luuq and Baardheere districts in Gedo region, Saakow and Bualle districts in Middle Juba region, and Afmadow district in Lower Juba region.

According to ICPAC, the October-November-December forecast indicates a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall driven by La Niña conditions. Additionally, there is a high probability of a delayed onset of rains in the southern and central parts of the country. These challenges are further compounded by above-normal temperatures, which, combined with below-normal rainfall, are expected to lead to a severe loss of soil moisture due to increased evapotranspiration. This will have serious implications for crop and fodder production, particularly in regions reliant on rainfed agriculture and pastoralist activities. Without adequate moisture retention, soil conditions will worsen, directly impacting food and fodder availability for both human and livestock populations. While it is acknowledged that there are inherent uncertainties associated with seasonal forecasting, this uncertainty should not be an excuse for inaction. Instead, the uncertainties must be met with flexibility and preparedness, ensuring that proactive steps are taken to safeguard communities and sectors at risk

Based on the seasonal forecast, the onset of Deyr rains is expected over Puntland and southmost parts of the country. According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, moderate rainfall expected over central parts of Somaliland, light rains over isolated areas in Puntland and dry conditions over Central and Southern parts of the Country. The spatial spread of the forecast rainfall conditions are as follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50.0 and 100.0 mm is forecast over northern parts of both Gebiley and Hargeisa districts spreading outwards particularly at the districts’ border areas. Light rainfall of less than 50.0 mm is expected in the rest of the areas in Gebiley district and northern parts of Hargesisa district; Borama district in Awdal region; Sheikh district in Togdheer region; isolated areas in northern Sanaag particularly around Ceerigaabo; southern parts of both Qardho and Bandarbeyla districts in Bari region; isolated areas in Burtinle and Eyl districts in Nugaal region and coastal parts of both Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts in Lower Juba region. There are also chances of light rains in very isolated areas in Sool and Mudug regions and Dhuusamarreeb district in Galgaduud region. Dry conditions are likely over rest of the inland areas of the country including most places over Gedo, Middle Juba, Lower Juba, Bay, Bakool, Middle Shabelle and Hiraan regions. Similar conditions are likely over most parts of the Juba and Shabelle River catchments within Somali and across in Ethiopia.

Based on the seasonal forecast, the third week of October signals the onset of Deyr rains over much of the country with general southwards spread from Somaliland. According to NOAA-NCEP GFS the previous rains and cloudiness over the north is forecast to spread southwards from Somaliland and parts of Puntland with the southward migration of the ITCZ to the central regions leading up to moderate amounts of about 50 mm. However, this southward spread is expected to weaken thereby leading to only light rains and dry conditions further south particularly over inland areas. The spatial spread of the forecast rainfall conditions are as follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50.0 and 100.0 mm is likely to to spread southwards this coming week to some isolated parts of the following central regions: Galgaduud, Mudug, Hiraan and Bakool. Moderate rains are also likely over some areas in within the Shabelle and Juba River catchments in Ethiopia. Light rainfall of less than 50.0 mm is expected over other areas in the central parts of the country including Galgaduud, Mudug, Hiraan and Bakool regions. Light rains are also likely over vast areas within the Shabelle and Juba River catchments in Ethiopia. The cloudiness over Bakool is likely to spread further leading to light rains over Luuq and Garbahaarey districts in Gedo region and Baidoa district in Bay region. Light coastal rains are likely over Lower Juba and Middle Juba regions. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over with the inland areas in southern regions including over Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle regions, Doolow, Belet Xaawo, Baardheere districts in Gedo region, Qansax Dheere, Dinsoor and Buur Hakaba districts in Bay region.

10 September 2024, Mogadishu, Somalia – The National Climate Co-Production, Application and Action Planning (NCCAAP), convened a forum on the DEYR 2024 Season. The forum deliberated on the critical climate forecast of below-normal rainfall, a delayed onset of rains, and the impacts of higher-than-normal temperatures in Somalia. The forum brought together climate scientists, decision-makers, and representatives from key sectors, including agriculture, water resources, disaster risk management, and humanitarian organizations, to assess the implications of these projections and plan anticipatory actions to mitigate the forecasted conditions.

This flood advisory is applicable to Hirshabelle – Belet Weyne, Bulo Burte, Jalalaqsi, Jowhar, Balcad districts and the surrounding areas. Even with the absence of rains in Somalia and eastern parts of Ethiopia, the continued downflow of water from the upper catchments in central portions of Ethiopian Highlands has led to a sustained rise in the levels along the Shabelle river. Due to the distance of flow, the river system has taken more than a month to respond to the rains observed in the central parts of Ethiopian Highlands. After the river level at Belet Weyne steadily dropped from the bankful level (8.30 m) on 24 May 2024, a slow upward trend began on 11 July 2024. The river level consistently rose thereafter but relatively stable and below the moderate flood risk level in July, and only crossing the moderate flood risk level on 8 August 2024. In the last 48 hours, the river at Belet Weyne has approached its critical zone with today’s level being 10 cm above high flood risk threshold (7.30 m) posing high risk of flooding. This signals a need for close monitoring and potential flood preparedness particularly at vulnerable breakage points. As expected, a similar pattern has been observed downstream at Bulo Burte where the river level began a consistent rise from a low of 2.63 m on 14 July 2024 to 6.52 m today (24 August 2024) which is 2 cm above moderate flood risk level (6.50 m). About the same time (13 July 2024), the level at Jowhar also observed a steady rise which has however been stable in the last week with today’s level being 22 cm below moderate flood risk level (5.00 m). The reported flood episodes at Jowhar and Balcad are therefore occasioned by river breakages and not overbank spillage. Nonetheless, the floods at Balcad are reported to have affected 27 villages with approximately 10,000 people in need of emergency relief in terms of shelter, WASH, health and nutrition support. Considering the lag-effect of the observed rains in central parts of Ethiopian Highlands in the last one month and the light rains to dry conditions forecast over the catchment in both Somalia and Ethiopia, the river levels are expected to rise further but not to bankful levels in the coming week. There is therefore an EMERGING HIGH RIVERINE FLOODING RISK AT BELET WEYNE and MODERATE RIVERINE FLOODING RISK DOWNSTREAM AT BULO BURTE, and low overbank flooding risk downstream at Jalalaqsi, Jowhar and Balcad, but continued episodes of breakage driven flooding at Jowhar and Balcad.

The Food and Agriculture Organization’s Somalia Water and Land Information Management (FAO SWALIM) Project, has finalized the analysis and mapping of the river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle rivers using very high resolution satellite imagery. Breakages identified in the map have been classified into five categories; Open, Overflow, Canal Breakage and Canal Intake Flooding and Closed with sandbags. A legend/Key for further explanation of the different types of breakages is provided. A long the Shabelle river, a total of 171 Open points, 2 Canal Breakages, 51 Canal flooding points, 323 Overflow points and 17 points closed with sandbags have been identified while 104 Open points, 1 Canal Breakage, 16 Canal flooding points, 83 Overflow points and 1 point closed with sandbags have been identified. Several other points, which are either potential or temporarily closed with sandbags, have also been identified. There is a need to close the open points and reinforce areas where there are weak river embankments to avoid loss of lives and livelihoods during the upcoming Deyr season.

This week marks the end of the Gu rains across the project area, ushering in the Hagaa season. The forecasted dry conditions may benefit agropastoral activities such as weeding in the Awdal region, which includes Baki and Borama districts. Here, above-normal Hagaa conditions are expected to maintain soil moisture, supporting continued crop and fodder production. However, the anticipated hot and dry air mass over the northern parts of the project area this coming week may lead to severe evapotranspiration, posing significant challenges to agropastoral activities. As we transition into the Hagaa season, it is crucial to implement measures for water conservation and the preservation of existing crops and fodder.

Several key findings have been obtained following a review of the 2024 Gu (March-April-May) rains and forecast of Hagaa (June-July-August) season: The heaviest cumulative rainfall was observed in Hiraan region (408.2 mm at Belet Weyne) and Woqooyi Galbeed region (477.0 mm at Gumburaha station); with the least rainfall observed over Puntland. There was more than 3 weeks-long dry spell in all the stations in the country with even longer than two months over some stations in Puntland. The earliest rains (in March) of equal or more than 20 mm per day was observed in some stations in Somaliland with no single station in South and Central Somalia and Puntland that received daily rains of such intensity in the same month. Based on the adopted definition of onset, there was a staggered start to the rainy season across the stations with the earliest onset observed in Qansadhere in Bay region on March 24, 2024, and the latest onset in Gacan-libaah in Togdheer region on May 3, 2024. Over the Juba and Shabelle River Catchments, the above normal rains were evenly spread with less consecutive rainy days and therefore moderate flood magnitude. However, the close to double the LTM rains observed at Doolow (117.5 mm) on 07-May-24, and the more than double the average rainfall at Belet Weyne resulted in to floods, displacing 7,100 families in Belet Weyne town. On a positive note, the rains observed in Gu across most other parts of the country were beneficial to agropastoral livelihoods in many aspects including favorable soil moisture conditions for crop and fodder production, and replenishment of surface and ground water sources. The more than a month-long dry spell within the season however posed a serious threat to the survival of crops and water retention in both open, shallow and groundwater sources. According to IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC), wetter than usual conditions are expected over few areas in north-western and southern coastal parts of the country with rest of the country remaining usually dry over the Hagaa season. According to Climate Prediction Centre (CPC), there is a 65 % chance that the present ENSO-neutral conditions will favor the development of La Niña later in July-September. Depending on the evolution of other drivers including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), this may drive below normal Deyr 2024 conditions over Somalia. The below normal rainfall conditions associated with the even better likelihood (85 %) of La Niña persisting into November-December-January may trigger a multi-season drought with a potential reversal of the currently achieved agropastoral gains. This bulletin presents both qualitative and quantitative review of the temporal and spatial variation of the observed, and verification of the forecast Gu rainfall amount and anomaly, length of wet and dry spells, and onset dates. It also reviews the experienced (Gu) and current (Hagaa) and long term projected (Deyr) weather impacts on livelihoods over Somalia.

Weekly Rainfall Forecast: According to ICPAC, during the week between 28 May to 3 June 2024, dry conditions are expected in most inland parts of the country with chances of light rainfall over coastal parts of the southern regions (Map 1). Given that this forecast week represents the transition out of the Gu season, it is important to mention that, according to ICPAC, above-normal Hagaa rainfall conditions are expected over Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, and Awdal regions. On the other hand, Togdheer and Sool-Sanaag regions are likely to experience drier-than-normal Hagaa conditions. Evolution of Rainfall Drivers: As the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifts further north, its impact on the Gu rains across the country begins to diminish ushering in Hagaa season. As the ITCZ shifts further north, a low-pressure system will be set up in Indian Sub-continent triggering the Southwest monsoon winds. As the winds blow from land into the Ocean (westerly land breeze) between 3:00 am and 9:00 am in the morning they converge with the prevailing easterly winds aiding lifting of warm and moist air causing the morning showers observed and forecast over the coastal parts of southern regions including Banadir. The forecast shift in the position of Madden Julian Oscillation’s (MJO) index from the Indian Ocean re-affirms the forecast dry conditions inland and a reduction in the intensity of the morning coastal showers in the coming days. This shift is also likely to lead to a reduction in the cyclonic activity in the southwestern Indian Ocean and favor such disturbances in the northern Indian Ocean particularly Bay of Bengal.

During the week between 1 and 7 May 2024, and based on NOAA-NCEP GFS, light to moderate rain is expected over most parts of the country, with chances of heavy rain and flash floods expected in some areas of Hiraan, Galgaduud and Mudug regions. Based on climatology, the observed and anticipated northward spread of the rains into the central and northern parts of Somalia is favored by the northward movement of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The arrival of the ITCZ will attract low-level incursions of precipitable water inland thereby mitigating the prolonged dry conditions over Bari. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index, which ideally is expected to propagate eastwards covering the entire globe in 40 – 60 days, and therefore anticipated to be present over 1 of the 8 regions for about one week, has stagnated over the eastern Indian Ocean for about two weeks. This is favoring the observed moderate to heavy rains in Somalia and the extremely heavy rains elsewhere within the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). The location of the index since 25 April shows improvement in strength and increase in forecast skill and reliability. As of 1 May, the index is at region 4 and is forecast to be back to region 2 within the next two weeks. Its lagged effect favors a continuation of moderate rains in the first half of the forecast period (1 – 4 May) with expected possible resumption of heavy rainfall activity in the second week of May. The favorable effect of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the rains cannot also be ruled out. According to Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the warming in the Indian Ocean indicates a likelihood of positive IOD developing earlier than usual. Although Somalia is not within the direct path of the current tropical disturbance in the western Indian Ocean, the low pressure associated with it may lead to sucking of moisture causing generally less rainfall over the southern part of the country. Week by week and day-to-day monitoring is therefore advised. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) are as follows: • Very heavy cumulative rainfall between 150 mm and 200 mm is likely over some isolated areas in central and eastern parts of Dhuusamareeb district in Galgaduud region, northern parts of Hobyo district, southern parts of Gaalkacyo district, northern parts of Jaariban district in Mudug region, and southern parts of Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region. The rains over isolated areas in the above places particularly in the central and eastern parts of Dhuusamareeb district may be very intense leading to more than 200 mm in cumulative terms and are likely to fall between 1 and 3 May 2024 with likelihood of flash flooding in vulnerable spots including flat and crowded human settlements. • Heavy cumulative rainfall between 100 mm and 150 mm is likely over the rest of the other areas in the following places: central and eastern parts of Dhuusamareeb district in Galgaduud region, northern parts of Hobyo district, southern parts of Gaalkacyo district, northern parts of Jaariban district, and eastern parts of Galdogob district in Mudug region, and western and southern parts of Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region. Similarly heavy rains are likely over northern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region, southern parts of Burtinle district in Nugaal region, eastern parts of Jowhar district in Middle Shabelle region and Baraawe district in Lower Shabelle. • Moderate cumulative rainfall between 50 mm and 100 mm is likely over the rest of the areas in Dhuusamareeb district, and eastern parts of both Ceel Buur and Ceel Dheer districts in Galgaduud region, Gaalkacyo and Galdogob district and coastal parts of Xaradheere district in Mudug region, and Belet Weyne district and northern parts of Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, northern parts of both Ceerigaabo and Laas Qoray districts in Sanaag region, Burtinle district and northern parts of Eyl district in Nugaal region, Jowhar district in Middle Shabelle region, Baraawe, Sablaale, Kurtunwaarey and Wanla Weyne districts in Lower Shabelle region. Similar rains are likely over Qandala district and southern parts of both Qardho and Bandarbeyla districts in Bari region, central parts of Hargeisa-Odweyne districts’ border, Buhoodle district in Togdherregion, Las Anod and Xudun-Taleex districts’ border in Sool region. Rains of similarly moderate intensy are likely over some areas in South West State including Buur Hakaba district and central parts of Baydhaba district in Bay region, central parts of Bakool region and central parts of Bardheere district in Gedo region. • Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over most of the following regions: Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Bay, Bakool, Gedo, Togdheer, Woqooyi Galbeed, Bari, Nugaal, coastal parts of Mudug, southern parts of Sanaag, central parts of Sool, and southern parts of Awdal. • Dry conditions are likely to prevail over southwestern, northwestern, and northeastern parts of the country. These include western parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, Zeylac and Lughaye districts in Awdal region, Berbera district in Woqooyi Galbeed region, Caluul and Iskushuban districts in Bari region.

During the week between 8 and 14 May 2024, and based on NOAA-NCEP GFS, light rains are expected over most parts of the country with moderate rains likely over Lower Shabelle and coastal parts of Lower Juba. Based on climatology, the observed and anticipated northward spread of the rains into the central and northern parts of Somalia is favored by the northward movement of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The ITCZ's arrival will attract low-level incursions of precipitable water inland, mitigating prolonged dry conditions over Bari. After the prolonged stagnation, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index has now propagated eastwards from our region. This is likely to favor a week-long break from the moderate to heavy rains received in the region. The forecast return of the index is likely to drive moderate to heavy rains from 15 May 2024. The forecast rains in the third week of May (15 – 21 May) are associated with better skill and reliability. The rains are likely to decrease thereafter marking the end of the Gu season particularly in Jubaland, South West and Hirshabelle. The effect of the sea surface temperature (SSTs) difference between the eastern and western Indian Ocean on the rains cannot also be ruled out. According to Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the warming in the Indian Ocean indicates a likelihood of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) developing earlier than usual. However, it has been reported that MJO events occurring during positive IOD have weaker convection and less organized wind anomalies which restricts local low-level moisture transport thus explaining the low likelihood of very extreme rainfall this season. Week by week and day-to-day monitoring is therefore advised. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall according to NOAA-NCEP GFS are as follows: • Moderate cumulative rainfall between 50 mm and 100 mm is likely over Lower Shabelle region particularly Barawe, Marka and southern parts of both Sablaale and Kurtunwaarey districts. Similar moderate rains are likely over the coastal parts of Lower Juba region particularly Badhadhe, Kismaayo and Jamaame districts. The rains, according to ICPAC weekly forecast may be more intense (100 mm to 200 mm) over Hirshabelle region including the Shabelle River catchment within the country and upstream in Ethiopia. • Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast across the most other parts of the country particularly in Woqooyi Galbeed, Sanaag, Nugaal, Mudug, Hirshabelle, Bay, Bakool, Middle Shabelle, and Middle Juba regions. • Dry conditions are particularly likely over the Zeylac, Lughaye and Baki districts in Awdal region; Berbera district and eastern parts of Hargeisa district in Waqooyi Galbeed region; Odweine, Burao and Buhoodle districts in Togdheer region; Ceel Afweyn district in Sanaag region; and Bossaso, Qandala, Calula, Isku-shuban and Bandarbeyle districts in Bari region. Towards the central part of the country dry conditions are also expected over western parts of both Burtinle and Garowe and coastal parts of Eyl district in Nugaal region; Xarardheere, Hobyo and Jariiban districts in Mudug region; and Ceel Buur and Cadaado districts in Galgaduud region. Dry conditions are also expected western parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region; Doolow and Belet Xaawo districts, western parts of both Luuq and Garbahaarey districts and southern parts of Baardheere district in Gedo region; Saakow district in Middle Shabelle region; Xudur in Bakool region; Wanla Weyn district in Lower Shabelle region; and western parts of Jowhar district in Middle Shabelle region.

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, during the week between 14 and 20 May 2024, light to moderate rain are expected in Puntland and Somaliland with dry conditions likely throughout central and southern parts of the country. This general northward spread of the rains is favored by the northward presence of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). As had been anticipated, the eastward propagation of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index from the Indian Ocean favored the general dry conditions during the last week (7 – 13). While the index is presently within the region, none of the weather forecast models has captured its effect on rainfall during this forecast week. Given that its 5-day forecast position is associated with better skill and reliability, there is still a likelihood of moderate to heavy rains towards the end of the forecast week i.e., from around 18 May 2024. Day-to-day monitoring is therefore advised. The rains are likely to decrease thereafter marking the end of the Gu season particularly in Jubaland, Southwest and Hirshabelle. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall are as follows: Moderate cumulative rainfall between 50 mm and 100 mm is likely over northwestern parts of Bandarbeyla district in Bari region. These rains are likely to be received between 14 and 16 May 2024. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over several areas in both Bandarbeyla and Iskushuban districts, northern parts of Qardho district, and southern parts of both Qandala and Caluula districts in Bari region; Garowe district, coastal parts of Eyl district, and northern parts of Burtinle district in Nugaal region; eastern and western parts of Ceerigaabo district, western parts of Ceel Afweyn district, and northern parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region; southern parts of Laas Caanod district and northern parts of Caynabo district in Sool region; northern parts of Burco district and western parts of Owdweyne district in Togdheer region; Gebiley district and northern and southern parts of Hargeysa district, and southern parts of Berbera district in Woqooyi Galbeed; and Borama and central and southern parts of Baki district, northern parts of Zeylac district in Awdal region. Rains of similarly trace amounts are also likely over isolated areas of Hobyo district, northern parts of Jariiban district, eastern parts of Gaalkacyo district in Mudug region; western parts of Dhuusamarreeb district in Galgaduud region; Belet Weyne town in Hiraan region; eastern parts of Afgooye district in Lower Shabelle region; and Banadir region. Dry conditions (rainfall less than 1 mm) are likely in most areas in the following regions: Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Gedo, Bay, Bakool and Middle Shabelle region. Dry conditions are also likely to prevail over Sablaale, Baraawe, Kurunwaarey, Qoryooley, Wanla Weyn districts and central and western parts of Afgooye district in Lower Shabelle region; Jalalaqsi, Bulo Burte and most other parts of Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region; Ceel Dheer, Ceel Buur, Cabudwaaq and Cadaado districts and most other parts of Dhuusamarreeb district in Galgaduud regiuon; Xarardheere district, vast areas of Hobyo district, most other parts of both Jariiban and Gaalkacyo districts in Mudug region. Towards the northern parts of the country, dry conditions are also likely over inland parts of Eyl district, and most other parts of Burtinle district in Nugaal region; Bossaso district, most other parts of Qardho, Qandala and Caluula districts in Bari region; most other parts of Ceerigaabo, Laasqoray and Ceel Afweyn district in Sanaag region; Xudun, Taleex, and most other parts of both Laas Caanood and Caynabo districts in Sool region; Buhoodle and Sheikh districts and most other parts of Burco and Owdweyne districts in Togdheer region; central parts of Hargeysa district, and most other parts of Berbera district in Woqooyi Galbeed; and Lughaye, northern parts of Baki district, and southern parts of Zeylac district in Awdal region.

This Tropical Storm Advisory is applicable to Lower Juba and Middle Juba regions, particularly Badhaadhe, Kismaayo and Jilib Districts and the surrounding areas where moderate localized rains, strong winds and large ocean waves may be observed. Tropical Storm Ialy started off as a Disturbance on 14 May 2024 growing into a Moderate Tropical Storm on 16 May and into a Severe Tropical Storm on 19 May. It is forecast to reduce in intensity in the next 36 hours (about 1 and a half days) as it approaches the Equator to a just a normal low-pressure system without making landfall in any part of the East African coastline. However, the area of influence may stretch beyond the Equator resulting in strong surface wind, large ocean waves and moderate rainfall over the coastal and nearby inland areas of Badhaahde, Kismaayo and Jilib Districts. Therefore, a MODERATE-RISK WARNING FOR STRONG WINDS, LARGE OCEAN WAVES AND FLASH FLOODS is in effect for Badhaahde, Kismaayo and Jilib Districts and the surrounding areas due to spillover effects of Tropical Storm Ialy.

According to ICPAC, during the week between 21 and 28 May 2024, dry conditions and light rainfall is expected in most inland parts of the country with chances of moderate rains over coastal parts of the southern regions. These forecast coastal rains seem to be driven by the warming in the Indian Ocean. As the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifts further north, its impact on the Gu rains across the country begins to diminish ushering in Hagaa season. However, given that today’s Madden Julian Oscillation’s (MJO) 3-day forecast position is associated with better skill and reliability, there is still some likelihood of moderate rains before the end of the month. Day-to-day monitoring is therefore advised. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) is as follows: Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over most coastal parts of Somalia including; Berbera district in Woqooyi Galbeed region; northern parts of Ceel Afweyn, Ceerigaabo and Laasqoray districts in Sanaag region; Bossaso, Qandala, Banderbeyla, Caluula and Iskushuban districts in Bari region; Eyl district in Nugaal region; Jariiban, Xarardheere and Hobyo districts in Mudug region; Ceel Dheer in Galgaduud region; Adan Yabaal, Cadale and Balcad districts in Middle Shabelle region; Afgooye, Qoryooley, Kurtunwaarey and Sablaale districts in Lower Shabelle region; Mogadishu in Banadir region; Jilib district in Middle Juba region; Jamaame, Kismayo and Badhaadhe districts in Lower Juba region. Similarly, other inland districts that are likely to receive light rainfall include Hargeisa and Gebiley districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region; Odweyne district in Togdheer region; Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region; Tayeeglow district in Bakool region; Baydhaba and Qansax Dheere districts in Bay region; and Afmadow district in Lower Juba region. Dry conditions (including rainfall less than 1 mm) are likely in most areas of Awdal and Sool regions; Burao district in Togdheer region; southern parts of Ceel Afweyn and Ceerigaabo districts in Sanaag region; Qardho district in Bari region; Garowe district in Nugaal region; western parts of Burtinle distric in Nugaal region; Gaalkacyo and Galdogob districts in Mudug region; Caabudwaaq and western parts of Cadaado district in Galgaduud region; Ceel Barde, Xudur, Rab Dhuure and Waajid districts in Bakool region; Doolow, Belet Xaawo and Ceel Waaq districts in Gedo region; and Caluula district in Bari region. Tropical Storm Ialy Advisory Tropical Storm Ialy (Map 2) started off as a Disturbance on 14 May 2024 growing into a Moderate Tropical Storm on 16 May and into a Severe Tropical Storm on 19 May. It is forecast to reduce in intensity in the next 24 hours as it approaches the Equator to just a normal low-pressure system without making landfall in any part of the East African coastline. However, the area of influence may stretch towards the Equator resulting in strong surface wind, large ocean waves and moderate rainfall over the coastal and nearby inland areas of Badhaade, Kismaayo and Jilib Districts.

During the week from the 2nd to 8th April 2024, the onset of the Gu rains is likely to be observed with moderate rainfall expected over some places in the following regions: Lower Juba, Gedo, Bay, Bakool, Lower Shabelle, Awdal, and Woqooyi Galbeed regions. Dry conditions are likely to be observed over most parts of Galmudug and Puntland. The cloudiness and rains in the northern parts of the country are likely to result from the north easterly winds being orographically lifted by the east-west oriented mountain ranges. The anticipated progression of the rains from Jubaland into South West is favored by the northward movement of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Heavy cumulative rainfall between 100 m and 150 mm is expected over some places in the western parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, the northern parts of Qansax Dheere district in Bay region, and western parts of Rab Dhuure in Bakool region. It is noteworthy that such projected heavy rains will fall within the catchment of Juba River. Moderate cumulative rainfall between 50 mm and 100 mm is forecast over most places in the western parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, central parts of Baardheere district, western parts of Ceel Waaq district, eastern parts of Garbahaarey district and northern parts of Luuq district in Gedo region, northern parts of Qansax Dheere district in Bay region, western parts of Rab Dhuure district in Bakool region, and western parts of Sablaale and Baraawe districts in Lower Shabelle region. In the north, similarly moderate rains are anticipated over most places in Borama district and southern parts of Baki district in Awdal region, Gebiley district and western parts of Hargeysa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region, and northern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over most places in Middle Juba and Middle Shabelle regions including Banadir, most of the other places in Lower Juba region including Jamaame district, most of the other places in Gedo region including Belet Xaawo and Doolow districts, most of the other places in Bay region including Baydhaba district and western parts of Buur Hakaba district, most of the other places in Bakool region including Waajid, Xudur and Tayeeglow districts and central and western parts of Cee Barde district, and most of the other places in Lower Shabelle including Kurtunwaarey and Qoryooley districts. Light rainfall is also expected over most parts of Hiraan region and coastal parts of both Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region and Xarardheere district in Mudug region. In the north, rainfall of similar amount is expected over most of the other places in Borama and southern parts of both Baki and Zeylac districts in Awdal region, most of the other places in Gebiley and Hargeysa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region, and most of the other northern parts of both Ceerigaabo and Cel Afweyn districts in Sanaag region. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over vast areas in the north including Bari, Sool, and Nugaal regions, Laasqoray district and central and southern parts of both Ceel Afweyn and Ceerigaabo districts in Sanaag region, Lughaye district and northern parts of both Zeylac and Baki districts in Awdal region, and Berbera district in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Dry conditions are also expected in the central parts of the country including most inland parts of Mudug region, Cabudwaaq, Cadaado, and Dhuusamareeb districts in Galgaduud region, central and northern parts of Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region, and the areas in Afgoye-Wanla Weyn districts’ boundary in Lower Shabelle.