This tail end of March marks the climatological start of the Gu rains with the arrival of the InterTropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) from the southern hemisphere. Based on NOAA-NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS), light rains are expected in the southern parts of the country with most parts of Somaliland and Puntland remaining dry. The status and forecast evolution of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) does not favor the likelihood of heavy rains within the forecast period. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) are as follows: Moderate cumulative rainfall of 50 mm and more is likely over very isolated areas in Dollow district, western parts of Luuq district and northern parts of Belet Xaawo district in Gedo region. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over most parts of Gedo region, and some parts of Lower Juba particularly Badhaadhe district, Bay particularly Baydhaba district, Bakool particularly Ceel Barde district, Hiraan particularly Belet Weyne town, Saakow district in Middle Juba region, Middle Shabelle including Banadir region. Light rainfall is also likely over the western parts of both Dhuusamareeb and Ceel Dheer districts in Galgaduud region, southmost parts of both Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region and elevated areas in eastern parts of Ceel Afweyn district in Sanaag region. It is important to point out that light to moderate rains is forecast to fall within the catchments of Juba River. Light rains are anticipated over the lower reaches of Shabelle River and moderate rains further up in Ethiopian Highlands. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over vast areas in Mudug region, Nugaal region and Bari regions. Similarly dry conditions are also expected in Sool, most low-lying areas in Sanaag region, vast inland parts of Awdal region, Berbera district and northern parts of both Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region.