Based on climatology, the month of November marks the peak of Deyr rains. However, according to NOAA-NCEP GFS, dry conditions are expected to prevail in most parts of the country, particularly northern and central parts during the coming week (Figure 1). Light rains are likely over few isolated areas in Bay, Gedo, Middle Juba and Lower Juba regions, and Sablaale district in Lower Shabelle region. The present status of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is strong but out-of-phase and is therefore not likely to favor any significant rain during the forecast period.

Based on climatology, the first week of November represents the climax of the Deyr rainfall season. So far into the season, Deyr rains have been below normal across most parts of the country. Given that the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index (Figure 5) is out-of-phase, and as confirmed by the NOAA GFS (Figure 4), dry conditions are forecast over Somalia including the entire Juba and Shabelle River catchments in the coming week. The Deyr season may actually come to an end in the coming two weeks ushering in the hot and dry Jilaal season. Based on the available observed and forecast data, the likelihood of flooding along both Juba and Shabelle Rivers remain low.

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, widespread light to moderate rainfall is expected over most parts of central Somalia including Nugaal, Mudug, Galgaduud, Hiraan, Middel Shabelle, Bay and Bakool regions. The north and southmost parts of the country are expected to remain dry. The spatial spread of the forecast rainfall conditions are as follows (Figure 1): Moderate rainfall of between 50.0 and 100.0 mm is forecast over most parts of Galkacyo district in Mudug, central parts of Burtinle district in Nugaal, central parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool and central parts of Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region which forms the middle section of the Shabelle River in Somalia. Rains of similar moderate intensity are also likely over the uppermost catchment of Shabelle River in Ethiopia. Light rainfall of less than 50.0 mm is expected over most other parts of Mudug, Nugaal, Bakool and Hiraan regions. Rains of lighter intensity are also likely over most parts of Galgaduud, Middle Shabelle, and Bay regions, Luuq district in Gedo region, Bu’aale district in Middel Juba region, southern parts of Qardo and Bandarveyla districts in Bari region. Similar light rains are expected over the middle and upper sections of the Juba River catchment and over upper portions of Shabelle River catchment within Somalia. Dry conditions are likely over most parts of Somaliland including Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool and Sanaag regions; most parts of Bari, Lower Juba, Middle Juba, and Lower Shabelle regions. Dry conditions are also likely to prevail over most parts of Garowe district in Nugaal region; Cadaado and Cabudwaaq districts and eastern parts of Ceel Buur district in Galgaduud; Jilib abd Saakow districts in Middle Juba region; Baardheere, Ceel Waaq, Garbahaarey, Belet Xaawo and Dollow districts in Gedo region;and coastal parts of Middle Shabelle including Banadir. Similar dry conditions are likely over most areas over the lower sections of the Juba River catchment within Somalia.

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, rainfall is expected over some parts of central Somalia with moderate intensity in parts of Hiraan, Middle Shabelle and Mudug regions. The north and southmost parts of the country are expected to remain dry. The spatial spread of the forecast rainfall conditions is as follows (Figure 1): Heavy rainfall of above 100 mm is likely over western parts of Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region. Moderate rainfall of between 50 and 100 mm is forecast over Jalalaqsi district in Hiraan region; northern parts of both Jowhar and Cadale districts in Middle Shabelle region; northern parts of Wanla Weyn district in Lower Shabelle region; Galdogob and western parts of Galkacyo district in Mudug region; and northeastern border areas of Xudur district with Ceel Barde district in Bakool region. The middle sections of the Shabelle River catchment within Somalia and its upper catchments in Ethiopia is also likely to observe rains of moderate amounts. Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is expected over most parts of Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region; Galkacyo, Hobyo and Xaradheere districts in Mudug region; Ceel Buur district in Galgaduud region; Adan Yabaal district in Middel Shabelle region; Wanla Weyn district in Lower Shabelle region; northern parts of Xudur district, eastern parts of Ceel Barde district and northern parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool region; Ceel Waaq district and northern parts of Baardheere district in Gedo region and some localized parts of Bay region. Rainfall of lighter intensity is likely to be observed in areas adjacent to the above districts and regions including the middle sections of the Juba River catchment within Somalia and upper catchments outside the country. Most parts of the Shabelle River catchment in the Somalia-Ethiopia border are likely to receive similarly light rains. Dry conditions are likely over most parts of Somaliland including Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool and Sanaag regions; Bari, Nugaal, Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Bay and Banadir regions; Belet Xaawo, Dollow and Luuq districts in Gedo region; Rab Dhuure and Waajid districts and southern parts of Xudur district in Bakool region; Sablaale, Baraawe, Kurtunwaarey, Qoryooley, Marka and Afgooye districts in Lower Shabelle region; Balcad district in Middle Shabelle region; central parts both Ceel Dheer and Ceel Buur districts and eastern parts of Dhuusamarreeb district in Galgaduud region; and Jariiban district in Mudug region. Similar dry conditions are likely over most areas in the lower sections of the Juba River catchment within Somalia.

Dry conditions are expected to prevail in most parts of the country, particularly in the northern and central parts during the coming week according to NOAA-NCEP GFS forecast (Figure 1). Synoptic forecast show that light rains are likely to be observed in Badhaadhe and Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, Saakow district in Middle Juba region, Bardheere and Ceel Waaq districts in Gedo region, and Buur Hakab district in Bay region. While most forecasts anticipate similar distribution of rain, ICPAC anticipates relatively intense rains particularly in some parts of Gedo and Bay region.

After the GHACOF-71, the 2nd National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF) for the October–December (Deyr) 2025 season was convened in Mogadishu, Somalia, from 2nd to 3rd September 2025 under the theme “Climate Science and Forecasting for a Resilient The major highlights were; Poor and late Deyr rains: Most of Somalia is forecast to receive below-normal rainfall, with a delayed onset, especially in the south. Hotter than usual: Above-average temperatures will worsen drought, water stress, and health risks Northern drought persists: Conditions in Somaliland and Puntland are expected to deteriorate further. Flood risks remain: Despite the dry forecast, localized flash floods and river overflows remain a threat in flood-prone areas Livelihoods at risk: Short and erratic rains will limit farming recovery and stress livestock. Therefore, urgent need for drought response in the north, safeguarding gains in the south, proactive flood, water, and health preparedness

Based on the ICPAC seasonal forecast, the Deyr rains are likely to begin in the first dekad of October in Togdheer, Sool and Nugaal regions. According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, widespread light rainfall is expected over most parts of Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, Sanaag and Hiraan regions and some inland parts of Nugaal, Mudug, and Galgaduud regions. The spatial spread of the forecast rainfall conditions are as follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50.0 and 100.0 mm is forecast over northern parts of Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region; northern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region; southwestern parts of Qardo district in Bari region; eastern parts of Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region; western and eastern parts of Buuhodle district in Togdheer region; and western parts of Laas Caanood district in Sool region. The intensity of the rains over northern parts of both Hargeisa and Ceerigaabo districts may lead up to more than 100 mm at the end of the forecast week. Heavy rainfall above 150 mm is likely over the upper catchments of Shabelle River in Ethiopia in the far north-eastern highlands of Gode city. Light rainfall of less than 50.0 mm is expected over most other parts of Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag regions; and most other parts of Qardo, Bulo Burte, Buuhodle, and Laas Caanood districts. Similarly light rains are also expected over most parts of Borama and Baki districts in Awdal region; Qandala and Bandarbeyla districts in Bari region; Garowe and Burtinle districts in Nugaal region; Galkacyo district and inland parts of bothJ ariiban and Hobyo districts in Mudug region; Cadaado, Dhuusamarreeb and Cabudwaaq districts in Galgaduud region; Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region; Ceel Barde and Tayeglow districts in Bakool region and Baydhaba district in Bay region. Similar light rains are expected over the Shabelle River catchment within Somalia. Dry conditions are likely over most parts of the following regions: Lower Juba, Middel Juba, Gedo, Lower Shabelle, and Middel Shabelle. Similar conditions are expected over Dinsoor district in Bay region; Rab Dhuure and Waajid districts in Bakool region; Ceel Dheer and Xaradheere districts in Galgaduud region; coastal parts of both Hobyo and Jariiban districts in Mudug region; coastal parts of Eyl district in Nugaal region; Iskushuban, Caluula and Bossaso districts in Bari region; and Zeylac and Lughaye districts in Awdal region. Similar dry conditions are likely over most areas over the Juba River catchment within and outside Somalia.

The Shabelle River at Jowhar has risen sharply, reaching 5.40 m, only 10 cm below the bank-full level of 5.50 m. This occurred despite dry conditions over the entire Somali and Ethiopian catchment. No natural overbank flow has been recorded yet, and upstream stations at Belet Weyne and Bulo Burte remain below flood-risk levels. The cause of this isolated sharp rise is still under investigation. Forecasts from NOAA-GFS indicate a westward-moving weather system that is likely to bring very intense rainfall on Monday, 22 September 2025 over Badhaadhe District. Light rains are expected in Kismaayo District (Lower Juba), Awdal Region (Somaliland), Laasqoray District (Sanaag), and northern Bari, with dry conditions elsewhere

FAO-SWALIM has updated the status of the river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers using available Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM). Five types of breakages have been identified; Open, Overflow, Canal Breakage, Canal Intake Flooding and Closed with sandbags. The open breakages are those that are currently open as observed on the latest VHR image available. All the observations reported refers to the latest suitable VHR satellite image available, which is indicated in the online database. A legend/Key for further explanation of the different types of breakages is provided. Along the Juba River, 105 open breakages, 14 canal flooding points, 31 river overflow and 2 points closed with sandbags were identified. While along the the Shabelle River 126 open breakages, 55 canal flooding points, 188 river overflow and 7 places closed with sandbags were identified. Users are advised that the methodology is biased towards Remote Sensing (RS) interpretation with only limited “ground truthing” due to access constraints. Open breakages might have been omitted in some cases where satellite images may not have been very clear (e.g. heavy cloud cover) or were not available.

According to the seasonal Outlook co-produced by FAO SWALIM, World Meteorological Organization (WMO), IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPA)C, and Government of Somalia, Gu 2025 was expected to be characterized by below normal rainfall, normal to delayed onset and above normal temperatures. There was a 45 % likelihood that most parts of the country were to observe below normal rains. There was even a higher likelihood (55 %) of drier conditions being observed over Gedo region, and some parts of Bay, Bakool, Hiraan and Awdal regions. However, there were chances of very isolated above normal rains in some parts of Puntland. There was a very low probability that cumulative Gu rainfall amount would exceed 200mm particularly over the Shabelle River Catchment. However, there were chances of an exceedance of 200 mm over the Juba River Catchment (Middle Juba and Lower Juba).