Since bursting its banks on May 9th, 2023, the Shabelle River’s water level at Belet Weyne (figure 1) has remained at a bankful height of 8.30 meters up to the current date of May 15th. Over the past week Belet Weyne town and its surrounding regions, has witnessed widespread and devastating floods (map 1). These floods have resulted in the destruction of homes, crops, and roads, as well as the displacement of numerous families and have impacted heavily on the transportation network. The river levels at Bulo Burti (figure 2), located about 100 km downstream of Belet Weyne, have shown a consistent increase from 5.74 meters on May 5th to 6.66 meters as of today, May 15th, 2023. The current reading at Bulo Burti (6.66 metres) surpasses the moderate flood risk threshold (put at 6.50 metres) by 16 centimetres . In contrast, at Jowhar, the reading today (3.75 metres) is more than 1 metre below the moderate risk level. However, it is anticipated that the water level at Bulo Burti will reach the high flood risk level in approximately two days, as the flood wave continues its downstream movement from Belet Weyne. Nevertheless, the presence of multiple river breakages downstream of Belet Weyne could mean that some water may escape the channel before reaching Bulo Burti. This scenario reduces the magnitude of flooding in the town compared to the situation witnessed in Belet Weyne. It is important to note that the floodplains located upstream of Bulo Burti remain highly susceptible to flooding. No rainfall has been reported in both Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti over the past week. The weather forecast for the next three days, from May 15th to 17th, 2023, predicts dry conditions across Somalia. Only a light cumulative rainfall of approximately 10 mm is expected much farther upstream in the Ethiopian Highlands, within the Shabelle River catchment area. Despite the absence of recent rainfall, flooding persists in Belet Weyne. There still remains a high risk of flooding in Bulo Burti and the surrounding floodplains. It is crucial for communities residing near riverbanks and low-lying areas to exercise utmost caution and take all necessary precautions to ensure their safety.

Light rainfall is expected over most parts of Somalia with moderate rains over isolated areas in northeastern and dry conditions over southwestern parts of the country during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is likely over Bari region particularly Iskushuban district, southern parts of Calulla district, eastern parts of Qandala district and southern parts of Bandarbeyle district. Moderate rains are also expected in isolated areas in the northwestern part of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region and over the areas on the border between Garowe and Eyl districts in Nugaal region. In the central regions, rains of similar amounts are expected over Cadale district in Middle Shabelle region, southern parts of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region, Qoryooley district and eastern parts of Kurtunwaarey and Baarawe districts in Lower Shabelle region. Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is expected over several areas in the Country with a tendency towards moderate over eastern parts of Bari region, northern parts of Sanaag region, Garowe and Eyl districts in Nugaal region, Ceel District in Galgaduud region, Cadale and Adan Yabaal districts in Middle Shabelle region, and several areas in Lower Shabelle region. Light rains are also expected over Central BeletWeyne district and Jalalaqsi district in Hiraan region. Dry conditions are expected in the southwestern parts of the country particularly over Gedo, Bakool and some parts of Hiraan regions including areas at their border with Bay region. Dry conditions are also likely in Mudug region particularly over Galdogob district, Gaalkacyo district and its border with Hobyo district. In Awdal region, dry conditions are expected over the northern parts of Zeylac and Lughaye districts. Similar conditions are likely over eastern part of Berbera in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Areas in the coastal strip of Bossaso, Qandala and Calulla districts in Bari region area also likely to remain dry. Moderate temperatures of between 24°C and 28°C are expected over several areas in the southern and northeastern parts of the country. Temperatures as low as 20°C are likely over some areas in the southern parts of Aw Woqooyi Galbeed regions, Sheikh district in northern Togdheer region and Ceerigaabo in Sanaag region and northern parts of Qandala district in Bari region. High temperatures of between 28°C and 32°C are expected in in Hiraan, Galgaduud, mudug, Nugaal, and Sool regions, southern and eastern parts of Bari region, and northern parts of both Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed regions. Similar temperatures copnditions are also likely over Dollow and Luuq districts in Gedo region. Temperatures as high as 36°C are likely over eastern parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region.

For close to two weeks, Belet Weyne town and its surrounding areas have witnessed widespread and devastating floods occasioned by the Shabelle River bursting its banks on the 9th May 2023. The river has remained at a bankful height of 8.30 meters up to the current date of May 22nd. The widespread flooding has resulted to property damage, and population displacement. Over the last two days, the flood water has begun slowly receding from Belet Weyne town and the surrounding areas back into the river, and progressively flow downstream. Subsequently, the river level at Bulo Burte has steadily risen, with today’s (22nd May) level just 13 cm below the high flood risk level. The river level at Jowhar has stagnated below moderate flood risk level (5.0 m) since the beginning of the Gu rain season. Today’s level is 3.75 m and is exactly equal to its normal mark in this season. Although the loss of flood water through overbank spillage between Belet Weyne and Bulo Burte explains the delay in Jowhar river level rise, it is expected that the high river levels at Bulo Burte will be transmitted to Jowhar and eventually to Balcad within the coming week. No rains have been reported in the last week over South Central Somalia including the entire stretch of Shabelle River from Belet Weyne to Balcad. Although light rains to dry conditions are predicted over the coming week, the steady rise in river levels at Bulo Burte poses a HIGH-RISK OF FLOODING in the town and the adjacent areas. A MODERATE RISK OF FLOODING is foreseen in Jowhar and the adjacent areas over the same period. Given the expected loss of water to overbank spillage and breakages along the Shabelle river channel, the risk of flooding reduces as the waters flow downstream to Balcad. Therefore, as the flood water recedes back to the river, residents of Belet Weyne are urged to beware of crocodiles that could have escaped the river on to the floodplains. They should also beware of the risks of drowning. As the residents prepare to relocate back to the previously flooded areas, housing structures need to be assessed for safety. In order to prevent water borne diseases, proper hygiene including disinfection measures such as chlorination of water sources should be adopted. The residents of Bulo Burte should prepare for potential evacuation by identifying safe routes to high grounds and gathering essential items, inform family, friends, and neighbors about the flood warning, secure property and consider assembling an emergency kit with necessary supplies. Residents are also strongly recommended to stay informed through regular bulletin updates at specified times, monitor thorough radio, television and internet for flood warnings. Any open or weak river embankments within Jowhar should be closed and reinforced.

According to the weekly forecast, moderate to heavy rainfall is expected over several areas in central and northwestern parts of Somalia with light rains over southern and northeastern parts during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Very heavy rainfall of more than 150 mm is likely to be observed over Sablaale and Baraawe districts in Lower Shabelle Region; western parts of Ceel Buur district and central parts of Dhuusamarreeb district in Galgaduud Region; Xarardheere district, northern parts of Hobyo district, eastern parts of Gaalkacyo district and western parts of Jariiban district in Mudug region. Rains of similar amounts are also predicted over Sheikh district in the northern part of Togdheer region and the northern border between Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed. Very heavy rains which may exceed 200 mm are expected over the northern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region. Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected over several areas in Mudug and Galgaduud regions; central parts of Hiraan region, the border between Afmadow, Kismaayo and Jamaame districts in Lower Juba region; Jilib district in Middle Juba region; coastal areas of Lower Shabelle region, the central areas of Adan Yabaal district and the border between Balcad and Cadale districts in Middle Shabelle region. Rainfall of similar amounts is likely over the northern part of Togdheer region; the northern border between Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed; southern parts of Awdal region; western parts of Ceel Afweyn and northern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is predicted over several areas in Nugaal region, central and northern parts of Awdal region, central and southern parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region, northern and southern parts of Togdheer region, central and western parts of Sanaag region, central and northern parts of Sool region, and some areas in the central parts of Bari region. Comparatively moderate rainfall is also expected over Galdogob district, western parts of Gaalkacyo district, northern parts of Jariiban district and western parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region, eastern parts of Galgaduud region, central and northern parts of Hiraan region, Balcad , Cadale and Adan Yabaal districts in Middle Shabelle region, near-coastal parts of the entire Lower Shabelle region, Buáale district in Middle Juba and Kismaayo, Jilib and eastern parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several areas in Bari region, eastern parts of Sanaag region, northern parts of both Woqooyi and Awdal regions, Bay region, central and eastern parts of Bakool region, southwestern parts of Hiraan region and its entire border with Middle Shabelle region, Wanla Weyn in Lower Shabelle region. In the south, similar light rains are expected over western Afmadow in Lower Juba, Saakow in Middle Juba region, northern Bardheere in Gedo region. Dry conditions are expected in the southwestern parts of the country particularly Gedo region, Waajid, Ran Dhuure, western parts of Ceel Barde and southern parts of Tayeeglow districts in Bakool region, and the coastal areas of Bari region. Moderate temperatures of between 24°C and 28°C are expected over several areas in the southern and northern parts of the country. Temperatures as low as 20°C are likely over some areas in the southern parts of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed regions, Sheikh district in northern Togdheer region and Ceerigaabo in Sanaag region. High temperatures of between 28°C and 32°C are expected in the central regions and some parts in the south and northern parts of the country.

Moderate to heavy rainfall expected over isolated parts of northern Somalia with light rains over central and dry conditions over southwestern parts of the country during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Very heavy rainfall of between 150 m and 200 mm is likely over central and northern parts of Awdal region, southern parts of Ceerigaabo district and western parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region, northern parts of Caynabo district in Sool region, Buuhoodle district in Togdheer region, and central parts of Bari region. Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is anticipated over several areas in Awdal region; northern parts of both Gebiley and Hargeiya districts in Woqooyi Galbeed; northern and southern parts of Togdheer region; several areas in Sool region; several areas in Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region; northern parts of Qardho district, western parts of Iskushuban district, southern parts of Qandala district and southwestern parts of Caluula district in Bari region; central Garowe district, southern Eyl district and southern parts of Burtinle district in Nugaal region; and Galdogob district in Mudug region. Moderate rainfall of between 50 and 100 mm is likely over southern Hargeisa in Woqooyi Galbeed region; Owdweyne in Togdheer region; northern parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region; Caluula district and southern parts of Qardho district in Bari region; northern parts of both Garowe and Eyl district and western parts of Burtinle district in Nugaal region; Jariiban and Garowe districts and southern parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region; and northern parts of Cabudwaaq in Galgaduud region. Similar moderate rainfall is likely over several areas in Middle Shabelle and Lower Shabelle regions. SOMALIA WEEKLY WEATHER FORECAST Valid From 24th to 30th May 2023 Moderate to heavy rainfall expected over isolated parts of northern Somalia with light rains over central and dry conditions over southwestern parts of the country. Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is expected over several areas in Lower Juba region, Middel Juba region, Bay region, eastern parts of Bakool region, Hiraan region, Galgaduud region, Hobyo district in Mudug region, and the coastal areas of Bari region and Berbera district in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Dry conditions are expected in the southwestern parts of the country particularly over Gedo region, Ran Dhuure and Waajid districts and southern parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool region, and western parts of Saakow district in Middel Juba region. Moderate temperatures of between 24°C and 28°C are expected over several areas in the southern and northern parts of the country. Temperatures as low as 20°C are likely over some areas in the southern parts of Awdal region, southern parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region, Sheikh district in northern Togdheer region, several areas in central Sanaag region (Ceerigaabo) and northern parts of Qandala district in Bari region. The coldest conditions (16°C to 20°C) are forecast over Erigavo in Sanaag region. High temperatures of between 28°C and 32°C are expected in in Hiraan, Galgaduud, mudug, and the coastal areas in the northern part of the country. Similar hot conditions are also likely over Dollow and Luuq districts in Gedo region.

There is a High Risk of Flooding along the Shabelle River at Belet Weyne Moderate rains received in Shabelle River catchment in the Ethiopian highlands and light rains observed in the areas around the Ethiopian borderhave sustained a steady rise in levels along Shabelle River. In the last four days, 40.5 mm of cumulative rainfall has been received at Belet Weyne; 22 mm on 5th, 8.5 mm on 6th and 10 mm on 8th May 2023. The river levels at Belet Weyne steadily increased from 6.38m on 26th April to 7.90m as reported today (8th May 2023). Today’s level is 60 cm above the high flood risk level (7.30 m) and just 40 cm below the bank full (8.30m) threshold. However, at 6.12 m and 3.75 m, the levels at Bulo Burti and Jowhar are 38 cm and 1.25 m below their moderate flood risk thresholds. Since 2nd May 2023 when the high flood risk level was reached at Belet Weyne, any increment in run off occasioned by the moderate rains across the Ethiopian border can potentially lead to river flooding. The information coming from the field indicates that the river flow is hitting the deck of two bridges in Belet Weyne with very high likelihood of river overflowing the banks and causing flooding that might affect Belet Weyne town and its surrounding areas. The Hirshabelle State, Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation is reported to be distributing pre-positioned sandbags to the vulnerable sites which have begun seeping the water into the town. Although these efforts may mitigate the effects of the flooding, population living in Belet Weyne town and its surrounding areas must still take precautionary measures. The rainfall forecast for the next three days (8th – 10th May) indicates light cumulative rain of about 10 mm over Belet Weyne and of about 20 mm over its catchment in the Ethiopian Highlands. Although there is high risk of flooding along Shabelle River at Belet Weyne currently, river levels are expected to stabilize to below moderate flood risk levels in the coming days given the above light to moderate forecast rainfall conditions.

According to the weekly forecast, moderate to heavy rainfall is expected over several areas in northeastern parts of the country, with light rains over central and southern parts during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Very heavy rainfall of more than 150 mm is likely to be observed over some areas in Nugal and Bari regions in the northeastern parts of the country. In Bari region, these very heavy rains are likely over the border areas of eastern Qandala and Iskushuban districts and over Bandarbeyla district. In Nugaal region, such very heavy rains are expected over Eyl district and southeastern parts of Garowe district. Over Eyl district, the rains could actually exceed 200mm in areas like Dihlil and Bacad Weyne. Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected over some areas in Nugal and Bari regions in the northeastern parts of the country. Several areas in Bandarbeyla and some areas in eastern parts of Qandala district and northern and eastern parts of Iskushuban, and southern parts of Caluula district in Bari region will observe such heavy rainfall. Similarly heavy rainfall is likely over several areas in Eyl district and eastern parts of Garowe district in Nugaal region. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is likely over all other areas in Bari region except Bossaso district and over all areas in Nugaal region except Burtinle district. Moderate rainfall is also expected over Buhoodle district and southern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region, south most parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region, eastern parts of Laas Canood and Taleex districts in Sool region, Galdogob district and western parts of Garowe district, and northern parts of Jariiban district in Mudug region. In the central parts of the country, moderate rains are expected in the southern parts of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region and Cadale district in Middle Shabelle region. Rainfall of similar amount is expected over isolated areas in Qoryooley district, Kurtunwaarey district, and southwestern parts of Sablaale district in Lower Sheballe. Similarly moderate rains are likely over northern parts of Jilib district and southern parts of Buáale district, northeastern parts of Kismaayo district and southern parts of Badhaadhe district in Lower Juba region. Light rains of less than 50 mm is expected over several areas in the following regions: Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Galgaduud, Mudug, Sool and Togdheer. Light rainfall is also anticipated over Saakow district and northern parts of Buáale district in Middle Juba region, northeastern parts of Baardheere district in Gedo region, south, central and eastern parts of Bay region, and Belet Weyne and Jalalaqsi districts in Hiraan region. In the northern parts of the country, similarly light rainfall is expected over southern and southeastern parts of Sanaag region, northern parts of Bossaso, Qandala and Caluula districts in Bari region, southern parts of Hargeisa and Gebiley districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region, and southern parts of Baki and Borama districts in Awdal region. Dry conditions are expected in the southwestern parts of the country including Bakool region and several areas in Gedo and Hiraan regions, and Ceel Buur district in Galgaduud region. Dry conditions are also likely in the north most parts of the country particularly over Zeylac and Lughaye districts and northern parts of Baki district in Awdal region, Berbera district in Woqooyi Galbeed region, and Sheikh district in Togdheer region. Several areas in the western and northern parts of Sanaag region, as well as the northern coastal strip in Bari region, are also likely to remain dry. Moderate temperatures of between 24°C and 28°C are expected over several areas in the southern and northeastern parts of the country. Temperatures as low as 20°C are likely over some areas in the southern parts of Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed regions, Sheikh district in northern Togdheer region and Ceerigaabo in Sanaag region and northern parts of Qandala. High temperatures of between 28°C and 32°C are expected in the central regions and northwestern parts of the country.

According to the weekly forecast, several areas in southern Somalia are expected to observe moderate (above 50 mm) to heavy (above 100 mm) cumulative rainfall during the forecast period. The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected in some areas of southern Somalia including Ceel Waaq district and eastern parts of Bardheere district in Gedo region, eastern parts of Diinsoor district in Bay region, northern parts of Saakow district, southern parts of Buáale district and northern parts of Jilib district in Middle Juba region, and western parts of Jamaame district, southeastern parts of Afmadow district, north parts of Kismaayo and most parts of Badhaadhe district in Lower Juba region. Very heavy isolated rainfall of above 150 mm is likely in some of the above areas particularly over the eastern parts of Bardheere district in Gedo region and southeastern parts of Bu’aale district in Middle Juba region. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is expected over Middle Juba region, several areas in central and southern Gedo, eastern, southern and western Lower Juba region, central and western parts of Bay region, western and eastern coastal parts of Lower Shabelle region, and southwestern parts of Middle Shabelle region. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, Belet Xaawo, Garbahaarey, Luuq and Dollow districts in Gedo region, several parts of Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, and Bay regions, Rab Dhuure and Waajid districts, western parts of Xudur district and southern parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool region, Bulo Burti district in Hiraan region, southern parts of Ceel Buur district, northern parts of Ceel Dheer district and the coastal strips of Galgaduud region and southern Mudug region. Similar moderate rains are also expected over northern parts of Hargeisa district Woqooyi Galbeed region, Sheikh district and northern parts of Owdweyne and Burco districts in Togdheer region. Dry conditions are expected in central and northern parts of the country including Bari, Nugaal and Sool regions, several areas in Awdal, Sanaag, central and southern parts of Togdheer region, northern and southern parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region, and vast non-coastal parts of Mudug region. Moderate temperatures of between 24 oC and 28 oC are expected in north and eastern parts of the country with cold conditions (temperatures less than 20 oC) likely very isolated areas in northern Sanaag and Bari regions. Moderate temperatures of between 28 ℃ and 32 ℃ are expected over central and southern Somalia.

According to the weekly forecast, several areas in southern, central and northwestern parts of Somalia are expected to observe heavy (above 100 mm) to very heavy (above 150 mm) cumulative rainfall during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial variation of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Very heavy rainfall of more than 150 mm is expected over several areas in the central part of Lower Shabelle region including Kurtunwaarey, Qoryooley and Afgooye districts. Similarly heavy rainfall is likely over several areas in the southern parts of Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed. Very heavy rainfall is also expected over isolated areas in northeastern parts of Ceel Barde district in Bakool region, southern parts of Bulo Burti district in Hiraan region, southern border between Ceel Afweyn and Ceerigabo districts in Sanaag region, Sheikh district in Togdheer region, and Baki district in Awdal region. The rains over the border between Gebiley and Hargeisa may actually exceed 200 mm. Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected in several areas of central Somalia including the entire Lower Shabelle region, northeastern parts of Baardheere district and isolated areas in Dollow and Luuq districts in Gedo region, Buur Hakaba district in Bay region, Hudur and Tayeeglow districts in Bakool region, eastern parts of Jilib district in Middle Juba region, western parts of all Belet Weyne, Bulo Burti and Jalalaqsi districts in Hiraan region, and southern parts of Cabudwaaq and Dhuusamarreeb districts in Galgaduud region. Similarly heavy rainfall is likely over southern parts of Ceerigaabo district and southern and western parts of Ceel Afweyn district in Sanaag region, entire Caynabo district in Sool region, central parts of both Owdweyne and Burco district in Togdheer region, southern parts of Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed, Baki, Borama and Lughaye districts in Awdal region. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is expected over several areas in Awdal region, Woqooyi Galbeed region, Togdheer region, western and central parts of Sanaag and Sool regions. Rainfall of equal amount is likely over Badhaadhe, Kismaayo and Jamaame districts and eastern parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, Saakow district, western parts of Jilib district and eastern parts of Buáale district in Middle Juba region, Dollow and Luuq districts and northeastern parts of Baardheere district in Gedo region, Diinsoor, Qansax Dheere and Baydhaba districts in Bay region, Middle Shabelle region. Comparable rainfall is expected over Waajid and Rab Dhuure districts and western parts of Ceel Barde district in Bakool region, eastern parts of all Belet Weyne, Bulo Burti and Jalalaqsi districts in Hiraan region, Cabudwaaq and Cadaado districts, western parts of Dhuusamarreeb district and southern parts of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region and Galdogob district in mudug region. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several areas in Mudug and Nugaal region, western parts of Bari region and eastern parts of both Sanaag and Sool regions. Dry conditions are expected in northern and eastern parts of Bari region including the coastal areas in Bandarbeyla, Iskushuban, Caluula, Qandala and Bossaso districts. High temperatures of between 28°C and 32°Care expected in southern and central parts of the country, and moderate temperatures of between 24°C and 28°C in the northern parts

The weekly outlook shows that most parts of the country are expected to receive less than 50 mm of cumulative rainfall during the forecast period (Map 1). The spread of the cumulative rainfall amounts are as follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm expected over isolated areas in the north-western and southern parts of the country. The areas in the northwestern part of the country are: northern Zeylac district, central Baki district and northwestern Hargeisa district. Areas in the southern parts of the country are: Belet Xaawo, Ceel Waaq districts, southwestern parts of Baardheere district, northern Jilib district and southern Buáale district, southeastern Afmadow district central parts of Kismayo and Badhaadhe districts. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several parts of Awdal, Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Gedo, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle and Hiraan regions. Rains of similar intensity are expected over central and northern Woqqoyi Galbeed, northern Togdheer region, northern border between Sanaag and Bari regions, central and western Galgaduud region, eastern Bakool region, southern Bay region, and the coastal strip of Mudug region. Dry conditions are expected in central parts of the country including most areas in Togdheer, Sool, Sannag, Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions. Similar conditions are expected over northern and southern parts of Galgaduud region, central areas of Hiraan region, western Bakool region, and northern Gedo region, central and northern Bay region. Moderate temperatures of between 20°C and 32°Care expected over most parts of Somalia. However, cold conditions with temperatures less than 20°C are expected over isolated areas in northern parts of the country particularly the southern Awdal-Woqooyi Galbeed regional border, northwestern Togdheer region, and isolated areas in northern Sanaag and Bari regions.