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Somalia Tropical Storm Alert - Issued 04 December 2019

Tropical Storm SIX expected to cause strong winds and some rains across Puntland and Somaliland A Tropical Storm currently centred in the north Indian Ocean near the coast of Puntland is expected to intensify further and move in a south western direction and cross Mudug coastal areas between Hobyo and Eyl districts on 06 December 2019. Under its influence, moderate to heavy rain are likely to cause flash floods in some regions including Mudug, Nugaal, Bari and Sanaag starting on 06 December 2019. Strong winds associated with the storm may cause destruction of weak structures and fishing gears along the coast. While current forecasts indicate a low probability for the cyclone (10%), if the cyclone makes a landfall, it could have a devastating impact. This is why SWALIM is issuing the Alert. Communities along the coast are advised to take necessary precautions in the coming days. SWALIM and partners are monitoring the situation and will update you accordingly. For more details on tropical storm tracking you can consult: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ or consult SWALIM.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 05 December 2019

The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three and seven days indicates moderate to heavy rainfall in most parts of the country starting form 06 December 2019. Specifically heavy rains are expected in the northern and central regions from 06 December 2019, these rains area associated with the passage of a tropical storm which is currently located in the Indian Ocean. Cumulative amounts exceeding 100mm may fall in coastal areas of Saanag, Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions. Given the forecast, there is a high risk of flash floods in the areas where heavy rains area expected. Of great concern is the fisheries and livestock sectors along the coastal areas which may be impacted negatively by the heavy rains. Further, heavy rains will be expected on 09 and 10 December 2019 within the Juba and Shabelle river basins inside Somalia and within the Ethiopian highlands. River levels along the Shabelle remain high and are anticipated to remain so in the coming week. There is a high risk of flooding along the Shabelle River. Observed river levels along the Juba increased sharply over the last few days following heavy rains in the Ethiopian highlands. River levels at Luuq and Dollow are at moderate risk of flooding while levels at Bardheere are currently at high risk level. The high levels will be sustained in the coming days and are expected to start decreasing towards the end of the forecast period.

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Somalia Tropical Storm Alert - Issued 06 December 2019

Tropical Storm PAWAN expected to lead to winds of medium strength with moderate to heavy rainfall amounts in parts of Somaliland, Puntland and Central regions of Somalia The Tropical Storm (TS) initially named SIX that developed in the northern Indian Ocean has now been assigned the name PAWAN after sustaining a speed of more than 39 miles per hour for two days. The probability of the TS landing in the coastal areas of Puntland has increased from (10% TO 35%) over the last two days and is expected to make a land fall in Nugaal region in the next 24 hours. The influence of PAWAN may start being felt in the coastal areas of Bari, Mudug and Sanaag regions in the next 12 hours where moderate to heavy rains and strong winds are expected. The rains will then spread further inland to many areas within Somaliland, Puntland and central regions on 07 and 08 December 2019. The storm poses an immediate threat to the shipping lane that links Somalia and Gulf states. Other impacts expected include destruction of property and infrastructure including roads, buildings and boats due to the strong winds. Flash floods may also disrupt normal activities along the tropical storm path. Communities living along this areas are advised to take necessary precautions. SWALIM and partners are monitoring the situation and will update you accordingly. For more details on tropical storm tracking you can consult: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ or swalim@fao.org.

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Somalia Tropical Storm Alert - Issued 07 December 2019

Strong winds and heavy rains reported in coastal areas of Puntland as tropical storm PAWAN Makes Landfall The north eastern parts of Somalia experienced extreme weather in form of a tropical storm since 06 December 2019. The tropical storm named PAWAN was associated with strong winds and heavy rains in some parts of Puntland with most stations recording high amounts of rainfall. The extreme weather conditions have led to destruction of property and infrastructure including roads, buildings and boats. Currently, flash floods still threaten many areas following the heavy downpour that is still being experienced in some areas. The rains are expected to spread further inland to many areas within Somaliland, Puntland and central regions. SWALIM and partners are monitoring the situation and will update you accordingly. For more details on tropical storm tracking you can consult: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ or SWALIM.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 09 December 2019

The coastal areas of East Arica have seen an increase in the frequency and strength of tropical storms since 2013, with one or two storms occurring each year since then. This can largely be attributed to climate change and the dynamic weather variation in the East African countries. Climate change studies further suggest an increase of such storms during the 21st Century. More studies are however needed to affirm and predict the storms timely for early action. Last weekend saw a tropical storm make landfall in the north eastern parts of Somalia. The tropical storm named PAWAN was associated with strong winds and heavy rains in some parts of Puntland with most stations recording more than three times their long term mean annual rainfall. For instance, Eyl recorded a total of 260mm while Dangoroyo received 198mm in two days. Other stations that recorded notable amounts include Hasbahale (80mm), Garowe (85mm), Iskushuban (75mm), Qardo (48mm) and Buuhoodle (52mm)among others. The extreme weather conditions led to livestock death as well as destruction of property and infrastructure including roads, buildings and boats. There has also been extensive erosion along the coast and inland. Currently, transport has been disrupted in many areas along the storm path making it difficult to render humanitarian assistance. Standing waters in some areas also pose an immediate danger of water related diseases. Positively, the heavy rains have been beneficial to the eastern parts of Puntland which had remained water stressed for a long period. There will be ground water recharge as well as pasture growth within these areas. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three and seven days (Map 1 and 2) indicates light to moderate rainfall in the southern regions and within the Ethiopian highlands. Consequently, this may lead to a further increase in river levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. There remains a high risk of flooding along the Shabelle and moderate risk of flooding along the Juba in the coming week.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 03 December 2019

The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three and seven days (Map 1 and 2) indicates an increase of rainfall activities towards the end of the forecast period. Specifically heavy rains are expected in the northern and central regions from 07 December 2019. Cumulative amounts exceeding 100mm may fall in coastal areas of Saanag, Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions. Given the forecast, there is a high risk of flash floods in the areas where heavy rains area expected. Of great concern is the fisheries and livestock sectors along the coastal areas which may be impacted negatively by the heavy rains. River levels along the Shabelle remain high and are anticipated to remain so in the coming week. There remains a moderate risk of flooding along the river. Observed river levels along the Juba increased sharply over the last two days following heavy rains in the Ethiopian highlands. River levels at Luuq and Dollow are at moderate risk of flooding while levels at Bardheere are currently at high risk level. The high levels will be sustained in the coming days and are expected to start decreasing towards the end of the week.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 19 November 2019

The last two weeks saw a significant decrease in rainfall activities in Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands. Consequently, there was a gradual reduction of river levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. Flood waters also have been receding in Belet Weyne,Bulo Burti and Jalalaqsi in Hiraan Region, this has left the local communities and authorities with concern following damage of properties and livelihoods and possible spread of diseases. Currently, the Shabelle River remains at moderate risk of flooding while the Juba River is at no risk of flooding this week. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three and seven days is calling for moderate to heavy rains across the country as well as within the Ethiopian highlands. In particular heavy rains of more than 100mm are expected in Bay, Bakool, Middle and Lower Shabelle regions within the southern areas of the country. Similar amounts of rainfall are also foreseen in Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer and Sool regions in the north. River levels along the Shabelle remain high and are anticipated to remain so in the coming week given the current situation and foreseen rains. There remains a moderate risk of flooding along the river. Observed river levels along the Juba continued to drop and are currently within the normal at this time of the year. Mild to moderate levels of flash floods are expected in low lying areas of Bay, Bakool and northern regions in the coming week.

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Belet Weyne District Flood Extent Map (As of 30 October 2019) - Issued 1 November 2019

The ongoing floods along the Shabelle River in Somalia has affected Belet Weyne District the worst. In Belet Weyne town, the river has remained at bankful level for the seventh day running. Flood waters have continued to ravage the town displacing more than 160,000 persons. Analysis from satellite images indicate that a total of 15,504 Hectares have been inundated as of 30 October 2019. This includes 3,265 ha of irrigated agriculture, 7,332 ha of rain-fed agriculture and 4,907 ha of natural vegetation. A total of 111 settlements are also under water. It is worth noting that the current flood extent in Belet Weyne town has not been detected due to the intrinsic nature of radar and optical images used (Sentinel-1 and 2 respectively). The Sentinel-1 imagery may significantly underestimate the presence of standing floodwater in dense built-up areas due to backscattering of the radar signal, while Sentinel-2 imagery is affected by cloud cover over Belet Weyne.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 20 November 2019

The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three and seven days is calling for moderate to heavy rains across the country as well as within the Ethiopian highlands. In particular, heavy rains of 50mm to 80mm are anticipated in the north western regions on 22nd and 23rd November 2019. The north eastern parts of the country which have remained dry since the beginning of the season are expected to receive light to moderate rains during the forecast week. The Juba and Shabelle Basins within Somalia and Ethiopia will also see an increase in rainfall activities, as more than 100mm of rainfall is foreseen in the upper reaches of the catchments inside Ethiopia. The central regions of Mudug and parts of Nugaal will remain mostly dry. River levels along the Shabelle remain high and are anticipated to remain so in the coming week given the current situation and foreseen rains. There remains a moderate risk of flooding along the river. Observed river levels along the Juba continued to drop and are currently within the normal at this time of the year. Given the forecast the levels will start to increase towards the end of the week with minimal risk of flooding along the Juba. Mild to moderate levels of flash floods are expected in low lying areas of Gedo, Bay, Bakool and northern regions in the coming week.

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast: Issued 04 November 2019

The Deyr 2019 rains have so far been average to above average in many parts of the country apart from Bari, Nuugal and Mudug regions that have experienced below-average rains. The seasonal rains are expected to continue during November with moderate to heavy intensity. During the last week, several places across the country recorded Light to moderate rains. A few places in the coastal areas of Bari and Nugal regions experienced moderate to heavy rains in the last 24Hours which led to flash floods and destruction of properties and death of livestock. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three and seven days is calling for moderate to heavy rains across the country as well as within the Ethiopian highlands. Lower Juba and Bari regions may receive little or no rains. Belet Weyne in Hiraan region has been at full bank level for the last 11 days leaving about 68% of the town underwater according to analysis from satellite images. Over the previous 24 hours, Bulo Burti reached the highest level in recent history. High levels and flooding in Belet Weyne and other areas along the Shabelle will be sustained in the next couple of days given the current situation and foreseen rains. There was a reduction of river levels along the Juba River with no flood risk over the last week following a decrease in rainfall activities.  Flash floods are expected in low lying areas of Nuugal, Mudug, Bay and Bakool in the coming week given the rainfall forecast.

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