Four consecutive poor rainy seasons in most parts of the Horn of Africa region have resulted to current serious hydrological drought conditions in Somalia and neighboring countries.. Juba and Shabelle Rivers, with the headwaters in the Ethiopian highlands have remained below the long term average since the beginning of 2022, negatively impacting agriculture production, domestic and livestock water use for the riverine communities. The low river levels however provide an opportunity to fix the river breakages and weak embankments, ahead of the next rainy season. SWALIM has updated the status of the river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers using available Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM). Five types of breakages have been identified, namely; open, overflow, potential overflows, potential breakages and closed with sandbags. The open breakages are those that are currently open as observed on the latest VHR image available. All the observations reported refers to the latest suitable VHR satellite image available, which is indicated in the online database. 100 Open breakage points have been identified, 70 on the Shabelle River and 30 on the Juba River which require immediate action. 13 Overflows were also identified during this season. Jowhar district was worst affected along the Shabelle while Bu’aale and Jilib districts are worst affected along the Juba. Users are advised that the methodology is biased towards Remote Sensing (RS) interpretation with only limited “ground truthing” due to access constraints. Open breakages might have been omitted in some cases where satellite images may not have been very clear (e.g. heavy cloud cover) or were not available.

Drought conditions improved slightly in the southern coastal areas and Awdal region in July following moderate Karan rains. Although the rains were not well distributed, they improved the vegetation conditions, which may be short-lived due to an influx of livestock into these areas. The other areas were dominated by dry and hot weather conditions, worsening drought severity in many parts of Somalia, leaving 90% of the country under extreme drought conditions. The groundwater levels across the country are going down, at alarming rates in some regions, from over pumping due to increased pressure to meet demand. Water trucking for domestic and animal use has been intensified. The Juba and Shabelle River levels are below the short-term average, with little water available to support irrigation of crops and other uses.

Over the last week, parts of Somaliland and the Southern regions recorded light rains. Specifically, some of the stations which recorded notable amounts of rain include; Jowhar 34 mm, Baidoa 24 mm, Kismayo 19 mm, all in the South; while in Somaliland, Wajaale received 17 mm, Gebilley 13 mm, Baki 10 mm and Borama 8 mm within the same period.  The rainfall forecast for the coming week indicates light to moderate rains in parts of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed and Togdheer Regions. The coastal areas of Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba regions will also receive light rains. The uppermost parts of the Ethiopian highlands will record moderate rains, which may lead to a slight increase in river levels within Somalia in the coming week. The rest of the country will remain dry, which is normal at this time.  Current drought conditions, however, continue to persist across the country, even in areas where it has rained, as the amounts received are localized and inadequate to alleviate the condition.  River levels along the Shabelle and Juba are below the average for this period of the year. 

The western parts of Somaliland (Wajaale and Gebilley) and southern coastal regions, including Mogadishu, Kismayo, and Jamame, continued to receive light Karan lights over the last week. The rest of the country remained dry, which is expected at this time of the year. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the coming week calls for light to moderate rains in Wooqoyi Galbeed and Awdal in Somaliland and the coastal areas of the Shabelle and Juba regions. Light showers are also expected in the inland areas of the Bay region during the same period. The Ethiopian highlands, whose rainfall is mainly responsible for the river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia, will receive light to moderate rains in the coming week.

Over the last week, Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Bay, Lower Juba, Middle Shabelle and Lower Shebelle Regions continued to receive light Karan rains. Some of the stations that recorded rains include Borama 7.5 mm, Dilla 5 mm, Bottor 17 mm, Wajaale 18 mm, Aburin 7 mm and Gebiley 6 mm in Somaliland; and in the Southern Regions Wanle Wayne 46 mm, Mogadishu 28 mm and Jowhar 35 mm. The last two days have, however, seen a reduction in recorded rainfall amounts across the regions that have been experiencing the Karan rains recently. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the coming week calls for a reduction of the Karan rains with light showers expected in Wooqoyi Galbeed, Togdheer and Awdal regions of Somaliland and the coastal areas of the Middle and Lower Shabelle regions. Light showers are also likely in the Sanaag region during the same period.

The last one week has seen a reduction in recorded rainfall amounts compared to previous weeks since the onset of the Karan rains. Most parts of the country remained dry for that period. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate rainfall in Awdal and the western side of Woqooyi Galbeed region; while in eastern Woqooyi Galbeed and parts of Togdheer Regions light rains are foreseen. Light rains are also foreseen along the coastal strip in the southern regions. The rest of the country will remain dry for the coming week. Moderate to high rains are expected in the Ethiopian highlands, where Juba and Shabelle Rivers originate. Despite the rains received in parts of the country, drought conditions persist across Somalia. The rains need to be well distributed and sustained over long period, to alleviate the current drought situation. The ongoing rains in Ethiopian highlands have led to a slight increase in river levels inside Somalia, and consequently restoring the river flow in the lower reaches of Shabelle which has been constantly reducing since May. River levels are however still below normal at this time of the year.

The last one week has seen a reduction in recorded rainfall amounts compared to previous weeks since the onset of the Karan rains. Most parts of the country remained dry for that period. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate rainfall in Awdal and the western side of Woqooyi Galbeed; while in eastern Woqooyi Galbeed and parts of Togdheer Regions light rains are foreseen. Light rains are also foreseen along the coastal strip in the southern regions. The rest of the country will remain dry for the coming week. Moderate to high rains are expected in the Ethiopian highlands, where Juba and Shabelle Rivers originate. Despite the rains received in parts of the country, drought conditions persist due across Somalia. The rains need to be well distributed and sustained over a long period, to alleviate the current drought situation.

The 2022 Gu rainy season in Somalia came to an early end in May, with depressed rainfall amounts recorded and forecasts indicating little to no rainfall through mid-June . The overall seasonal rainfall performance was poor. The northern areas recorded 30% to 60% of the average rainfall while the central and southern areas received 45 % to 75%. This marks a fourth consecutive failed rainy season since late 2020. Gu season rainfall has moderated drought conditions in most parts of the country as it replenished pasture and water resources. However, this improvement is expected to be short-lived as and drought conditions are expected to worsen throughout the prolonged dry Hagaa (July-September) dry season. Current climate forecasts indicate a 62 per cent chance of La Niña  during the June to August 2022 period (IRI). La Niña is generally associated with drought conditions in the Horn of Africa region, including Somalia. The next seasonal rains are not expected until mid-October and available long-range forecasts indicate that a record fifth below-average rainy season is likely across Somalia during the forthcoming October and December 2022 Deyr season. This could set the conditions for a worsening multi-season drought well into 2023. More than 80 per cent of Somalia is currently facing severe to extreme drought conditions. The drought severity levels are comparable to that of 2010/11 and 2016/17 as seen in Annex I. Water resources are expected to decline drastically during the forthcoming dry season as water demand and use increases. In Garowe, there was abnormal drop in ground water level of seven meters between October 2021 and May 2022 (Annex II). The Juba and Shabelle River levels are currently 30 percent below the short-term average, with limited water available to support irrigation of crops and other uses. The river levels are expected to decrease further in the coming weeks and months. The vegetation conditions that had improved in some areas as a results of the Gu season rains are expected to be depleted soon due to the low level of biomass recovery and likely influx of livestock into these areas. The Prospects for Gu season cereal production remain bleak, with crop failure expected in many areas . Due to the poor rains, some communities did not plant during this season. Dry and hot conditions will continue across most parts of the country during this dry Haggai (June/July-September ) season except for parts of Somaliland that will receive moderate Karan rains. With no significant rains foreseen until the next rainy season in October, and the La Nina predictions, the current drought situation will deteriorate further in Somalia. The negative trends are not expected to reverse until the arrival of Deyr (Oct-Dec) 2022 rains. However, the preliminary forecast for the Deyr 2022 season is also below average—FEWSNET

The period from June to September is generally dry in Somalia. However, Somaliland especially the western parts received localized rains during this period, known as Karan rains. Along the coastal areas of the southern regions scattered rains were also experienced during this period. Over the last one week rains were observed in parts of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Bay, Lower Juba, Middle Shabelle and Lower Shebelle Regions. The rains have been mainly light and lacking spatial distribution, apart from few areas where moderate rains were recorded and surface water sources recharged. Some of the stations where moderate rains were received over the last one week include Kismayo 26.6mm, Baidoa 20.9mm, Jowhar 18mm, Buaale 14mm, and Qansax Dheere 14.5mm in the south; while in Somaliland Wajaale station recorded 40mm, Gebiley 29mm, Amoud 25mm, Baligubadle 20mm and Borama 14.5mm within the same period. Current drought conditions however continue to prevail across the country, even in areas where it has rained, as the amounts received are localized and inadequate to alleviate the condition. The rains need to be sustained for long period, and more spatially distributed to sustain pasture and crop growth. The rainfall forecast for the coming week indicate light to moderate rains in parts of Awdal, Woqooyi Galdeed and Togdheer Regions. Bay Region and the coastal areas of Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba are also expected to receive light to moderate rains in the next one week.

In the last one week many parts of Somalia recorded moderate rains. In Somaliland, stations like Amoud, Borama, Yagori, Waridaad and Malawle recorded significant rains of above 70 mm. In the South, many stations including Bur Hakabar, Balcad, Bardheere and Buale recorded rainfall between 15mm to 25mm. The last 24 hours saw heavy rains in parts of Puntland in Bari region and areas around Las Canood. This has led to flash floods subsequently causing damage in different sectors. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the coming week indicates moderate to heavy rains in parts of the central and southern regions of the country especially in Galgaduud, Hiraan and Lower Juba, while light to moderate rainfall of below 30 mm is expected within the Ethiopian highlands. Most parts of Somaliland and Puntland are expected to receive little or no rains in the coming one week. Given the rainfall forecast, flash flooding may occur in the southern areas of Galgaduud region and along the coastal areas of Lower Juba between 04 and 05 May 2022, . While the rains experienced since the start of the Gu season have reduced water stress in many areas, it is worth noting that, the foreseen rains in the coming week are not yet sufficient to alleviate the current drought conditions in the country, and more rains with good temporal and spatial distribution are required during the season in order to improve the situation. Besides, the cumulative rainfall forecast for the month of May 2022 is expected to be below normal in most parts of the country according to ICPAC.    With the rains experienced during the last week in the country and the Ethiopian highlands, river levels along the Juba and Shabelle increased sharply over the last few days and will continue increasing during the week in focus with no risk of flooding.