Rains are most likely to begin over Gedo in the third week of April, progressing eastwards to Lower and Middle Juba, Bay, Bakool, Lower and Middle Shabelle, Hiraan, Galgaduud, Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, and Sool by the fourth week of April (Figure 3). Mudug, Nugaal, and Sanaag are likely to follow in the first week of May, and Bari in the second week of May. Although isolated rainfall may occur as early as late March, operational onset is expected later in April. There are chances of delayed onset in parts of Jubaland, Nugaal, and Woqooyi Galbeed, while earlier onset is possible in central regions. Onset timing remains highly uncertain over Bari, Sool, and Sanaag.

The Somalia Water and Land Information Management (SWALIM) project, implemented by FAO, provides critical water and land resource information to support sustainable development, disaster preparedness, and humanitarian response in Somalia. This newsletter highlights our latest activities, data products, and technical updates from drought and flood monitoring to groundwater assessments and capacity building initiatives. We aim to keep our partners informed and strengthen evidence-based decision-making across Somalia.

Based on NOAA-NCEP GFS, dry conditions are expected to prevail in most parts of the country with chances of very light rains in some parts of Jubaland (Figure 1). Dry conditions are also expected over the entire Shabelle River catchment. Light isolated rains are expected over the Juba River catchment within and outside Somalia.

According to UNHCR, severe drought has led to the displacement of 156,000 people from Toghdeer, Sool and Sanaag regions in search of water and pasture. An additional 29,142 people have also been displaced across Bari, Mudug, Nugaal and Sanaaag regions due to drought.

Groundwater remains Somalia’s most critical and dependable water source, sustaining urban and rural populations, pastoral livelihoods, and productive sectors especially as surface water availability continues to decline during the ongoing drought. SWALIM has finalized the December 2025 Groundwater Status Update which indicates that aquifer conditions across the country are strongly driven by seasonal rainfall and are increasingly stressed by recurrent drought, high temperatures, and rising abstraction. Significant groundwater declines were recorded in parts of Somaliland and Puntland following poor Deyr 2025 rains, while central and southern regions generally maintained more stable conditions. Groundwater quality trends closely mirrored water-level changes, with higher salinity during periods of depletion and improvements following seasonal recharge, underscoring the close link between climate variability, aquifer dynamics, and water quality Despite these pressures, weekly monitoring data indicates that most strategic boreholes remain functional, particularly in south-central Somalia, ensuring continued access to water during the early Jilaal dry season. However, localized mechanical failures mainly related to pumps, power supply, and riser pipes have concentrated abstraction on fewer water points in Puntland and Somaliland, accelerating aquifer stress and contributing to rising water prices in some regions. Persistently low river levels along the Shabelle and Juba rivers have further increased dependence on groundwater for domestic use, irrigation, and water trucking. With hot and dry Jilaal conditions expected to persist and uncertainty surrounding the Gu 2026 rains, sustained groundwater monitoring, rapid rehabilitation of non-functioning boreholes, and strengthened demand management remain essential to mitigate escalating water stress and support informed humanitarian and development responses

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, light rains are likely over some areas in the south with dry conditions expected to prevail in most other parts of the country, particularly Somaliland and Puntland (Figure 2). The rains in the south may be of moderate intensity over isolated areas in Bay, Lower Shabelle, Banadir, and Middle Shabelle regions, and over the coastal parts of both Galgaduud and Mudug. These light to moderate rain is likely to be observed between 22 and 24 November 2025.

Based on NOAA-NCEP GFS, dry conditions are expected to prevail in most parts of the country with chances of very light rains in some parts of Jubaland (Figure 1). Dry conditions are also expected over the entire Shabelle River catchment. Light isolated rains are expected over the Juba River catchment within and outside Somalia.

Based on climatology, the month of November marks the peak of Deyr rains. However, according to NOAA-NCEP GFS, dry conditions are expected to prevail in most parts of the country, particularly northern and central parts during the coming week (Figure 1). Light rains are likely over few isolated areas in Bay, Gedo, Middle Juba and Lower Juba regions, and Sablaale district in Lower Shabelle region. The present status of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is strong but out-of-phase and is therefore not likely to favor any significant rain during the forecast period.

Based on climatology, the first week of November represents the climax of the Deyr rainfall season. So far into the season, Deyr rains have been below normal across most parts of the country. Given that the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index (Figure 5) is out-of-phase, and as confirmed by the NOAA GFS (Figure 4), dry conditions are forecast over Somalia including the entire Juba and Shabelle River catchments in the coming week. The Deyr season may actually come to an end in the coming two weeks ushering in the hot and dry Jilaal season. Based on the available observed and forecast data, the likelihood of flooding along both Juba and Shabelle Rivers remain low.

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, dry conditions are expected to prevail in most parts of the country, particularly northern and central parts during the third week of November (Figure 2). Light rains are likely over few isolated areas in Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Gedo, and Bay regions, and coastal parts of the following areas: Hobyo district in Mudug region, Caluul and Bosasso districts in Bari region, and Laasqoraay in Sanaag region. The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is presently strong but out-of-phase and is therefore not likely to favor any significant rain during the forecast period.