According to ICPAC, the October-November-December forecast indicates a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall driven by La Niña conditions. Additionally, there is a high probability of a delayed onset of rains in the southern and central parts of the country. These challenges are further compounded by above-normal temperatures, which, combined with below-normal rainfall, are expected to lead to a severe loss of soil moisture due to increased evapotranspiration. This will have serious implications for crop and fodder production, particularly in regions reliant on rainfed agriculture and pastoralist activities. Without adequate moisture retention, soil conditions will worsen, directly impacting food and fodder availability for both human and livestock populations. While it is acknowledged that there are inherent uncertainties associated with seasonal forecasting, this uncertainty should not be an excuse for inaction. Instead, the uncertainties must be met with flexibility and preparedness, ensuring that proactive steps are taken to safeguard communities and sectors at risk

Based on the seasonal forecast, the onset of Deyr rains is expected over Puntland and southmost parts of the country. According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, moderate rainfall expected over central parts of Somaliland, light rains over isolated areas in Puntland and dry conditions over Central and Southern parts of the Country. The spatial spread of the forecast rainfall conditions are as follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50.0 and 100.0 mm is forecast over northern parts of both Gebiley and Hargeisa districts spreading outwards particularly at the districts’ border areas. Light rainfall of less than 50.0 mm is expected in the rest of the areas in Gebiley district and northern parts of Hargesisa district; Borama district in Awdal region; Sheikh district in Togdheer region; isolated areas in northern Sanaag particularly around Ceerigaabo; southern parts of both Qardho and Bandarbeyla districts in Bari region; isolated areas in Burtinle and Eyl districts in Nugaal region and coastal parts of both Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts in Lower Juba region. There are also chances of light rains in very isolated areas in Sool and Mudug regions and Dhuusamarreeb district in Galgaduud region. Dry conditions are likely over rest of the inland areas of the country including most places over Gedo, Middle Juba, Lower Juba, Bay, Bakool, Middle Shabelle and Hiraan regions. Similar conditions are likely over most parts of the Juba and Shabelle River catchments within Somali and across in Ethiopia.

Based on the seasonal forecast, the third week of October signals the onset of Deyr rains over much of the country with general southwards spread from Somaliland. According to NOAA-NCEP GFS the previous rains and cloudiness over the north is forecast to spread southwards from Somaliland and parts of Puntland with the southward migration of the ITCZ to the central regions leading up to moderate amounts of about 50 mm. However, this southward spread is expected to weaken thereby leading to only light rains and dry conditions further south particularly over inland areas. The spatial spread of the forecast rainfall conditions are as follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50.0 and 100.0 mm is likely to to spread southwards this coming week to some isolated parts of the following central regions: Galgaduud, Mudug, Hiraan and Bakool. Moderate rains are also likely over some areas in within the Shabelle and Juba River catchments in Ethiopia. Light rainfall of less than 50.0 mm is expected over other areas in the central parts of the country including Galgaduud, Mudug, Hiraan and Bakool regions. Light rains are also likely over vast areas within the Shabelle and Juba River catchments in Ethiopia. The cloudiness over Bakool is likely to spread further leading to light rains over Luuq and Garbahaarey districts in Gedo region and Baidoa district in Bay region. Light coastal rains are likely over Lower Juba and Middle Juba regions. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over with the inland areas in southern regions including over Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle regions, Doolow, Belet Xaawo, Baardheere districts in Gedo region, Qansax Dheere, Dinsoor and Buur Hakaba districts in Bay region.

10 September 2024, Mogadishu, Somalia – The National Climate Co-Production, Application and Action Planning (NCCAAP), convened a forum on the DEYR 2024 Season. The forum deliberated on the critical climate forecast of below-normal rainfall, a delayed onset of rains, and the impacts of higher-than-normal temperatures in Somalia. The forum brought together climate scientists, decision-makers, and representatives from key sectors, including agriculture, water resources, disaster risk management, and humanitarian organizations, to assess the implications of these projections and plan anticipatory actions to mitigate the forecasted conditions.

This flood advisory is applicable to Hirshabelle – Belet Weyne, Bulo Burte, Jalalaqsi, Jowhar, Balcad districts and the surrounding areas. Even with the absence of rains in Somalia and eastern parts of Ethiopia, the continued downflow of water from the upper catchments in central portions of Ethiopian Highlands has led to a sustained rise in the levels along the Shabelle river. Due to the distance of flow, the river system has taken more than a month to respond to the rains observed in the central parts of Ethiopian Highlands. After the river level at Belet Weyne steadily dropped from the bankful level (8.30 m) on 24 May 2024, a slow upward trend began on 11 July 2024. The river level consistently rose thereafter but relatively stable and below the moderate flood risk level in July, and only crossing the moderate flood risk level on 8 August 2024. In the last 48 hours, the river at Belet Weyne has approached its critical zone with today’s level being 10 cm above high flood risk threshold (7.30 m) posing high risk of flooding. This signals a need for close monitoring and potential flood preparedness particularly at vulnerable breakage points. As expected, a similar pattern has been observed downstream at Bulo Burte where the river level began a consistent rise from a low of 2.63 m on 14 July 2024 to 6.52 m today (24 August 2024) which is 2 cm above moderate flood risk level (6.50 m). About the same time (13 July 2024), the level at Jowhar also observed a steady rise which has however been stable in the last week with today’s level being 22 cm below moderate flood risk level (5.00 m). The reported flood episodes at Jowhar and Balcad are therefore occasioned by river breakages and not overbank spillage. Nonetheless, the floods at Balcad are reported to have affected 27 villages with approximately 10,000 people in need of emergency relief in terms of shelter, WASH, health and nutrition support. Considering the lag-effect of the observed rains in central parts of Ethiopian Highlands in the last one month and the light rains to dry conditions forecast over the catchment in both Somalia and Ethiopia, the river levels are expected to rise further but not to bankful levels in the coming week. There is therefore an EMERGING HIGH RIVERINE FLOODING RISK AT BELET WEYNE and MODERATE RIVERINE FLOODING RISK DOWNSTREAM AT BULO BURTE, and low overbank flooding risk downstream at Jalalaqsi, Jowhar and Balcad, but continued episodes of breakage driven flooding at Jowhar and Balcad.

The Food and Agriculture Organization’s Somalia Water and Land Information Management (FAO SWALIM) Project, has finalized the analysis and mapping of the river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle rivers using very high resolution satellite imagery. Breakages identified in the map have been classified into five categories; Open, Overflow, Canal Breakage and Canal Intake Flooding and Closed with sandbags. A legend/Key for further explanation of the different types of breakages is provided. A long the Shabelle river, a total of 171 Open points, 2 Canal Breakages, 51 Canal flooding points, 323 Overflow points and 17 points closed with sandbags have been identified while 104 Open points, 1 Canal Breakage, 16 Canal flooding points, 83 Overflow points and 1 point closed with sandbags have been identified. Several other points, which are either potential or temporarily closed with sandbags, have also been identified. There is a need to close the open points and reinforce areas where there are weak river embankments to avoid loss of lives and livelihoods during the upcoming Deyr season.

Several key findings have been obtained following a review of the 2024 Gu (March-April-May) rains and forecast of Hagaa (June-July-August) season: The heaviest cumulative rainfall was observed in Hiraan region (408.2 mm at Belet Weyne) and Woqooyi Galbeed region (477.0 mm at Gumburaha station); with the least rainfall observed over Puntland. There was more than 3 weeks-long dry spell in all the stations in the country with even longer than two months over some stations in Puntland. The earliest rains (in March) of equal or more than 20 mm per day was observed in some stations in Somaliland with no single station in South and Central Somalia and Puntland that received daily rains of such intensity in the same month. Based on the adopted definition of onset, there was a staggered start to the rainy season across the stations with the earliest onset observed in Qansadhere in Bay region on March 24, 2024, and the latest onset in Gacan-libaah in Togdheer region on May 3, 2024. Over the Juba and Shabelle River Catchments, the above normal rains were evenly spread with less consecutive rainy days and therefore moderate flood magnitude. However, the close to double the LTM rains observed at Doolow (117.5 mm) on 07-May-24, and the more than double the average rainfall at Belet Weyne resulted in to floods, displacing 7,100 families in Belet Weyne town. On a positive note, the rains observed in Gu across most other parts of the country were beneficial to agropastoral livelihoods in many aspects including favorable soil moisture conditions for crop and fodder production, and replenishment of surface and ground water sources. The more than a month-long dry spell within the season however posed a serious threat to the survival of crops and water retention in both open, shallow and groundwater sources. According to IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC), wetter than usual conditions are expected over few areas in north-western and southern coastal parts of the country with rest of the country remaining usually dry over the Hagaa season. According to Climate Prediction Centre (CPC), there is a 65 % chance that the present ENSO-neutral conditions will favor the development of La Niña later in July-September. Depending on the evolution of other drivers including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), this may drive below normal Deyr 2024 conditions over Somalia. The below normal rainfall conditions associated with the even better likelihood (85 %) of La Niña persisting into November-December-January may trigger a multi-season drought with a potential reversal of the currently achieved agropastoral gains. This bulletin presents both qualitative and quantitative review of the temporal and spatial variation of the observed, and verification of the forecast Gu rainfall amount and anomaly, length of wet and dry spells, and onset dates. It also reviews the experienced (Gu) and current (Hagaa) and long term projected (Deyr) weather impacts on livelihoods over Somalia.

This week marks the end of the Gu rains across the project area, ushering in the Hagaa season. The forecasted dry conditions may benefit agropastoral activities such as weeding in the Awdal region, which includes Baki and Borama districts. Here, above-normal Hagaa conditions are expected to maintain soil moisture, supporting continued crop and fodder production. However, the anticipated hot and dry air mass over the northern parts of the project area this coming week may lead to severe evapotranspiration, posing significant challenges to agropastoral activities. As we transition into the Hagaa season, it is crucial to implement measures for water conservation and the preservation of existing crops and fodder.

During the week between 8 and 14 May 2024, and based on NOAA-NCEP GFS, light rains are expected over most parts of the country with moderate rains likely over Lower Shabelle and coastal parts of Lower Juba. Based on climatology, the observed and anticipated northward spread of the rains into the central and northern parts of Somalia is favored by the northward movement of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The ITCZ's arrival will attract low-level incursions of precipitable water inland, mitigating prolonged dry conditions over Bari. After the prolonged stagnation, the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index has now propagated eastwards from our region. This is likely to favor a week-long break from the moderate to heavy rains received in the region. The forecast return of the index is likely to drive moderate to heavy rains from 15 May 2024. The forecast rains in the third week of May (15 – 21 May) are associated with better skill and reliability. The rains are likely to decrease thereafter marking the end of the Gu season particularly in Jubaland, South West and Hirshabelle. The effect of the sea surface temperature (SSTs) difference between the eastern and western Indian Ocean on the rains cannot also be ruled out. According to Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the warming in the Indian Ocean indicates a likelihood of positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) developing earlier than usual. However, it has been reported that MJO events occurring during positive IOD have weaker convection and less organized wind anomalies which restricts local low-level moisture transport thus explaining the low likelihood of very extreme rainfall this season. Week by week and day-to-day monitoring is therefore advised. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall according to NOAA-NCEP GFS are as follows: • Moderate cumulative rainfall between 50 mm and 100 mm is likely over Lower Shabelle region particularly Barawe, Marka and southern parts of both Sablaale and Kurtunwaarey districts. Similar moderate rains are likely over the coastal parts of Lower Juba region particularly Badhadhe, Kismaayo and Jamaame districts. The rains, according to ICPAC weekly forecast may be more intense (100 mm to 200 mm) over Hirshabelle region including the Shabelle River catchment within the country and upstream in Ethiopia. • Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast across the most other parts of the country particularly in Woqooyi Galbeed, Sanaag, Nugaal, Mudug, Hirshabelle, Bay, Bakool, Middle Shabelle, and Middle Juba regions. • Dry conditions are particularly likely over the Zeylac, Lughaye and Baki districts in Awdal region; Berbera district and eastern parts of Hargeisa district in Waqooyi Galbeed region; Odweine, Burao and Buhoodle districts in Togdheer region; Ceel Afweyn district in Sanaag region; and Bossaso, Qandala, Calula, Isku-shuban and Bandarbeyle districts in Bari region. Towards the central part of the country dry conditions are also expected over western parts of both Burtinle and Garowe and coastal parts of Eyl district in Nugaal region; Xarardheere, Hobyo and Jariiban districts in Mudug region; and Ceel Buur and Cadaado districts in Galgaduud region. Dry conditions are also expected western parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region; Doolow and Belet Xaawo districts, western parts of both Luuq and Garbahaarey districts and southern parts of Baardheere district in Gedo region; Saakow district in Middle Shabelle region; Xudur in Bakool region; Wanla Weyn district in Lower Shabelle region; and western parts of Jowhar district in Middle Shabelle region.

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, during the week between 14 and 20 May 2024, light to moderate rain are expected in Puntland and Somaliland with dry conditions likely throughout central and southern parts of the country. This general northward spread of the rains is favored by the northward presence of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). As had been anticipated, the eastward propagation of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index from the Indian Ocean favored the general dry conditions during the last week (7 – 13). While the index is presently within the region, none of the weather forecast models has captured its effect on rainfall during this forecast week. Given that its 5-day forecast position is associated with better skill and reliability, there is still a likelihood of moderate to heavy rains towards the end of the forecast week i.e., from around 18 May 2024. Day-to-day monitoring is therefore advised. The rains are likely to decrease thereafter marking the end of the Gu season particularly in Jubaland, Southwest and Hirshabelle. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall are as follows: Moderate cumulative rainfall between 50 mm and 100 mm is likely over northwestern parts of Bandarbeyla district in Bari region. These rains are likely to be received between 14 and 16 May 2024. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over several areas in both Bandarbeyla and Iskushuban districts, northern parts of Qardho district, and southern parts of both Qandala and Caluula districts in Bari region; Garowe district, coastal parts of Eyl district, and northern parts of Burtinle district in Nugaal region; eastern and western parts of Ceerigaabo district, western parts of Ceel Afweyn district, and northern parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region; southern parts of Laas Caanod district and northern parts of Caynabo district in Sool region; northern parts of Burco district and western parts of Owdweyne district in Togdheer region; Gebiley district and northern and southern parts of Hargeysa district, and southern parts of Berbera district in Woqooyi Galbeed; and Borama and central and southern parts of Baki district, northern parts of Zeylac district in Awdal region. Rains of similarly trace amounts are also likely over isolated areas of Hobyo district, northern parts of Jariiban district, eastern parts of Gaalkacyo district in Mudug region; western parts of Dhuusamarreeb district in Galgaduud region; Belet Weyne town in Hiraan region; eastern parts of Afgooye district in Lower Shabelle region; and Banadir region. Dry conditions (rainfall less than 1 mm) are likely in most areas in the following regions: Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Gedo, Bay, Bakool and Middle Shabelle region. Dry conditions are also likely to prevail over Sablaale, Baraawe, Kurunwaarey, Qoryooley, Wanla Weyn districts and central and western parts of Afgooye district in Lower Shabelle region; Jalalaqsi, Bulo Burte and most other parts of Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region; Ceel Dheer, Ceel Buur, Cabudwaaq and Cadaado districts and most other parts of Dhuusamarreeb district in Galgaduud regiuon; Xarardheere district, vast areas of Hobyo district, most other parts of both Jariiban and Gaalkacyo districts in Mudug region. Towards the northern parts of the country, dry conditions are also likely over inland parts of Eyl district, and most other parts of Burtinle district in Nugaal region; Bossaso district, most other parts of Qardho, Qandala and Caluula districts in Bari region; most other parts of Ceerigaabo, Laasqoray and Ceel Afweyn district in Sanaag region; Xudun, Taleex, and most other parts of both Laas Caanood and Caynabo districts in Sool region; Buhoodle and Sheikh districts and most other parts of Burco and Owdweyne districts in Togdheer region; central parts of Hargeysa district, and most other parts of Berbera district in Woqooyi Galbeed; and Lughaye, northern parts of Baki district, and southern parts of Zeylac district in Awdal region.