This week marks the equinox; a period of the year during which the Earth’s axis is tilted neither towards the north nor south resulting in a “nearly” equal amount of daylight and darkness at all latitudes. The apparent position of the overhead Sun is expected to be generally over the celestial equator, which cuts through the country over Lower Juba region from Alabakuus in Jamaame district to Jana Cabdalle in Afmadow district, today 20th March 2024. Therefore, today and for several days afterwards, the length of day will range from about 12 hours and six and one-half minutes at the equator and the surrounding areas over Lower Juba region. Based on NOAA-NCEP GFS, dry weather conditions are expected throughout the country particularly between 20th and 22nd March 2024. The weekly forecast indicates likelihood of moderate rains over the Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed and Lower Juba regions in between 22nd and 26th March 2024 (Figure 1). The cloudiness and rains in the northern parts of the country are likely to be mediated by the north easterly winds ascending the east-west oriented elevations. While patches of clouds and isolated rains are likely over the elevated areas in Sanaag and Bari, the intensity of the rains over Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed on the windward sides of the Harage Highlands across the Ethiopian border. The forecast rains in the southwestern parts of the country are likely to be driven by the arrival of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and therefore signal the onset of Gu rains. This week may therefore mark the end of dry conditions which was attributed to reduced moisture influx due to the delays in the northward movement of rain-bearing ITCZ because of the lower-level cyclonic circulation associated with tropical cyclone Filipo in the Mozambique channel. Moderate rains are therefore likely over the southwestern parts of Somalia during the first week of April 2024. As a demonstration of the intense insolation associated with the present position of the overhead Sun, elevated temperatures of above 40°C are expected over southwestern parts of Somalia. While such is associated with thermal discomfort, it is the lifting of this hot and moist airmass that will precipitate into the rains in the coming days. Most parts of the country are likely to observe generally warm conditions of between 30°C and 40°C with only elevated areas in Ceerigaabo and areas in the northern coastal strip recording less than 30°C.

This forecast period marks the transition from the tail-end of Jilal to the forecast Gu season onset. Based on NOAA-NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS), moderate to heavy rains are expected over most parts of Somaliland, Jubaland, South West, Hirshabelle, and Galgaduud with dry conditions likely to continue over most parts of Puntland. The cloudiness and rains in the northern parts of the country are likely to be mediated by the north easterly winds ascending the east-west oriented elevations. While patches of clouds and isolated rains are likely over the elevated areas in Sanaag and Bari, the intensity of the rains over Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed on the windward sides of the Harage Highlands across the Ethiopian border. The forecast rains in the southwestern parts of the country are likely to be driven by the arrival of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and therefore signal the onset of Gu rains. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) are as follows: Heavy cumulative rainfall between 100 mm and 150 mm is forecast over western parts of Badhaadhe district and central parts of Kismaayo district in Lower Juba region, central areas of Bardheere district and northern areas of Luuq district in Gedo region, central areas of Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region, eastern parts of Dhuusamareeb district in Galgaduud region and eastern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region. The rains over isolated places in these areas particularly Badhaadhe in Lower Juba, Bardheere and Luuq districts in Gedo region and Dhuusamareeb district in Galgaduud region are likely to be more intense leading up to more than 150 mm. As the week progresses the very heavy rains over Bardheere district in Gedo region are likely to sum up to more than 200 mm. It is noteworthy that such rains are likely to fall within the in-country catchments of both Juba and Shabelle Rivers. Moderate cumulative rainfall of between 50 m and 100 mm is expected over most places in the following areas: Badhaadhe, Kismaayo and Jamaame districts in Lower Juba region, Bardheere and Luuq districts in Gedo region, Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region, Dhuusamareeb district in Galgaduud region, Burco district in Togdheer region, Gebiley district and western parts of Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region, Baki and Borama districts in Awdal region. Moderate rains are also likely over Jilib district in Middle Juba region, Garbahaarey district in Gedo region, Qansax Dheere district in Bay region, Tayeeglow district in Bakool region, Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, Sheikh district in Togdheer, Berbera district in Woqooyi Galbeed region, and Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region. The rains in the northern parts of the country particularly those over the northern border between Gebiley and Hargeisa districts are likely to be observed earlier between 27th and 29th March 2024. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over most of the other places in Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Lower Juba, Gedo, Bay, Bakool, Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Hiraan, and Galgaduud regions. Light rainfall is also likely over most parts of central and northern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region and a few places in Bosasso and Qandala districts in Bari region. It is important to point out that the rains over the upper catchments of both Juba and Shabelle Rivers will be light to moderate in intensity. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over vast areas in Mudug region, Nugaal region, Sool region and Bari region. Dry conditions are also expected over a few places in the following areas: Ceel Afweyn and Laasqoray distrcist in Sanaag region, Cabudwaaq and Ceel Dheer districts in Galgaduud, Balcad district in Middle Shabelle, Qoryooley, Sablaale and Baraawe districts in Lower Shabelle, eastern parts of Bu’aale district in Middle Jubas, northern parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region.

Several key findings have been obtained following a review of the 2023 Deyr (October-November-December) seasonal rainfall. Heavy cumulative rainfall was observed over the south and central parts of the country with a substantial 1,152 mm being recorded in Baidoa in Bay region representing five times of the station’s Long-Term Mean (LTM). The rainfall was even much heavier in Berbera in Wooqoyi Galbeed Region where the amount was 26 times the LTM. The Deyr rains began in early October over parts of Somaliland and central parts of Puntland spreading southwards to Gedo and Bay-Bakool regions. However, there was a sharp end to the Deyr rains particularly over Puntland and Somaliland with no single rainy day observed in Puntland in December. There was more than 30 consecutive dry days in almost all the stations in the country between 1st October and 31st December 2023. The observed rainfall amounts, and the length of wet spells particularly over the Juba and Shabelle River basins within the country were 100% in agreement with the forecast. The onset of Deyr rains across the country was also generally in agreement with the forecast with most of the stations realizing onset within a week of the forecast date.

Weather Forecast for the Period 1st to 7th December 2023 Rainfall Forecast: Light rainfall ranging between 2 to 5 mm is expected in the northeastern parts of the project area. This encompasses the western regions of Berbera district, Banmadar and Cabdi Geeddi in the eastern regions of the Baki district, as well as Beeyo Liiban in the eastern parts of Lughaye district and Ceel Lay Heelay in the northern part of Hargeisa district. Conversely, dry conditions are expected to persist across the remaining project areas, with the likelihood of rainfall less than 2 mm. Temperature Forecast: Mild temperatures between 20°C and 25°C are expected in the southern parts of Borama and Gebiley districts, as well as the southwest of Hargeisa district. Northern parts of Lughaye district are expected to experience relatively higher temperatures ranging from 30°C to 35°C. For the rest of the project area, moderate temperatures between 25°C and 30°C is expected.

Dry conditions: Most parts of the country are expected to remain dry during the coming week. The model predictions for the month of December indicating minimal rainfall amounts across the country and the Ethiopian highlands signals the end of the Deyr rainy season for Somalia. Temperature Forecast: The current forecast indicates likelihood of high temperatures ranging from 30°C to 35°C over extensive areas in the south, central and northeastern parts of the country. Milder temperatures ranging between 20°C and 25°C are anticipated over some areas in the following regions: Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer and Sanaag regions and inland parts of Bari region. Moderate temperatures of 25°C to 30°C are anticipated in the rest of the country.

Light rainfall of below 50 mm is forecast over some areas in the southern parts of the country in the coming week. These light rains are expected in the earlier part of the forecast week (13th – 15th December) over Badhaadhe, Kismayo and Jamaame districts in Lower Juba region, Ceel Waaq and Belet Xaawo districts in the Gedo region. Other areas expected to receive the light rains are the coastal areas of Jilib district in Middle Juba region, Marca and Kurtunwaarey districts, areas in the Sablaale, Qoryooley, and Barawe districts in Lower Shabelle region, and Baidoa in Bay region. Although moderate in cumulative amounts, the rains over the Lower Juba region are likely to be spread out across the entire week and will therefore be less intense. Moderate rains above 50 mm may be observed in some areas along the southern coastal strip whenever the monsoonal winds blowing parallel to the coastline are accentuated by any elevated East-West oriented terrain. As these monsoonal winds blow southwards across the Gulf, there are also chances of trace amounts of rains over the northern coastal strip including Caluula and Qandala districts in Bari region and Berbera districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Dry conditions – The rest of the country is expected to remain dry during the coming week. The model predictions of minimal rainfall amount across the country and the Ethiopian highlands in the month of December signals the end of the Deyr rainy season for Somalia.

In the next week heavy rainfall is expected over parts of Gedo, Bay, and Galgaduud regions, and moderate to heavy rainfall over most other parts of the country. Dry conditions with chances of isolated light rainfall are however expected in Bari region. Much of the forecast rains over Galgaduud and Bay regions are likely to be received between 15th and 17th November 2023. The spatio-temperal variation of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) is described below: • Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected over the western areas of Gedo Specifically in Ceel Waaq, Belet Xaawo, isolated parts of Luuq, Dollow, and Garbahaarey. Likewise, Baydhaba in Bay, along with parts of Xuddur, Tayeeglow, and Waajid bordering Bay in the Bakool region, are expected to experience similar intense rainfall. In Galgaduud, comparable weather conditions are expected, particularly over Cabudwaaq and Cadaado. Additionally, isolated areas in Hiraan and Sanaag are also likely to encounter heavy rainfall during this period. The Ethiopian highlands is also expected to receive high to moderate rainfall over the forecast period • Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is forecast over extensive areas in Gedo, Bay, Bakool, Hiraan, Galgaduud, and Mudug regions. Similar conditions are also anticipated in the northwestern regions of the country, particularly over Lughaye and Baki in Awdal, the northern areas of Gebilley, Sheikh in Togdheer, extensive parts of Woqooyi Galbeed, as well as Ceel Afweyn and Ceerigavo in the Sanaag region. • Light rainfall of below 50 mm is expected over several areas in Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle regions, parts of Dinsor and Burhakabar in Bay region, Jalalaqsi in Hiraan region, Ceel Buur, Ceel Dheere and parts of Dhuusamarreeb in Galgaduud, extensive part of Mudug, Nuugal, Bari, Sool, Sanaag regions, Zeylac and Borama in Awdal region, Hargeisa and Southern parts of Gebilley in Woqooyi Galbeed, Burco, Buuhodle and most parts of Odweyne in Togheer, most parts of Bosasso, Qandala, Coastal parts of Callula, Isolated pasts of Iskushuban and Qardho in Bari region. • Dry conditions are expected over isolated areas in Sanaag, Taleex, Qardo, Iskushuban, Callula, extensive parts of Bandarbeyla, northern parts of Eyl and Isolated parts of Lower Juba.

Juba River Catchment Over the past three days, there has been a notable increase in both the amount and intensity of rainfall in the Gedo region and the Ethiopian highlands. The current water levels along the Juba River are now only 8 cm below bankful level at Dollow, 14 cm at Luuq, and under 40 cm at Bardheere. The ongoing heavy rainfall, coupled with the forecasted moderate rains in the next 24 hours, with an accumulation of approximately 150 mm over the next three days across Gedo, are expected to cause the river level to reach bankful height. This presents a high risk of riverine flooding along the entire stretch of the Juba River. Additionally, there is a high risk of flash flooding in the Gedo region, particularly in the Garbahaarey district within the next 24 hours. Residents in Deeday, Buulo Oomin, Tuutees, and Dhayba should take all necessary precautions to ensure their safety. Necessary anticipatory action should be taken. Shabelle River Catchment There has been a slight increase in water levels along the Shabelle River. The water levels are currently just 8.0 cm, 50.0 cm and 70.0 cm below the moderate flood risk levels at Beletweyne, Bulo Burte and Jowhar, respectively. The runoff from forecast moderate rains within the catchment over the next three days in HirShabelle, is likely to lead to a gradual rise in water levels with moderate risk of flooding along the Shabelle River. There are also reports of high flood wave approaching the Somali-Ethiopia border which is projected to lead to a significant river level rise in 3 to 4 days. Flash Floods Within the next 24 hours, heavy rains are anticipated over most areas of Bakool and Bay regions. As a result, there is a high risk of flash flooding in low-lying and vulnerable areas, particularly in Buur Hakabar, Diinsoor, Qansax Dheere, and Baydhaba districts in Bay, as well as Waajid and Ceel Barde districts in Bakool. Most parts of Middle Juba, including areas around Jilib, are expected to receive rainfall exceeding 100 mm, with coastal areas of Jilib experiencing particularly high amounts of over 200 mm, posing a significant risk of flash floods especially around Jiirta and Kuunyo-Burrow. Similarly, areas along the border of Hobyo and Jariiban districts in Mudug are likely to receive rainfall exceeding 200 mm, potentially leading to flash floods over Xingaras, Dhinooda, Ceel Dhahanaan, and Ceel Bacduur. Residents around the mentioned areas should take precautionary measures to ensure their safety.

Light rainfall of below 50 mm is expected over the coastal parts of Adan Yabaal, Cadale, and Balcad districts in Middle Shabelle region, as well as Banadir, coastal parts of Jilib district in Middle Juba region, Jamame, Kismayo, and Badhaadhe districts, and the border areas between Afmadow and Kismayo districts in Lower Juba region. Similarly light rains are also anticipated over areas bordering Bur Hakaba district in Bay region and Qoryooley district in Lower Shabelle region. Dry conditions are expected to prevail over the rest of the country in the upcoming week. Similar dry conditions are also expected over the Ethiopian Highlands. Temperature Forecast The current forecast indicates the likelihood of high temperatures ranging from 30 ℃ to 35 ℃ over extensive areas in the south, central and northeastern parts of the country. Milder temperatures ranging between 20 ℃ and 25 ℃ are anticipated over some areas in the following regions: Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer and Sanaag regions and inland parts of Bari region. Moderate temperatures of 25℃ to 30 ℃ will prevail over the rest of the country.

Between the 12th and 15th of November 2023, approximately 24,318 buildings, 562 km of roads and 14,697 Hectares of farms in Belet Weyne were flooded, as depicted on the map. The flood extents were identified through a comprehensive analysis, incorporating data from a modified Global Flood Model (GFM) based on Sentinel-1 image of November 14, 2023, visual interpretation of UNOSAT Beletweyne city extent data of November 12, 2023, and Sentinel-2 image of November 15, 2023. This inundation had a notable impact on the region, affecting 54% of buildings, 6% of the main road distance, and 41% of agricultural cropland. The data derived from this analysis offers a detailed overview of the extent and consequences of the flooding, facilitating a more informed understanding of the situation for effective response and mitigation efforts.