According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, rainfall for the upcoming week is expected to be moderate in parts of Bay and Lower Shabelle and light over Lower Juba, Gedo, and Middle Juba regions, as well as isolated areas of the Juba and Shabelle River basins. Most of northern Somalia is expected to remain largely dry. The observed rainfall during the previous week is linked to the arrival of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which enhanced moisture influx into southern and central Somalia. However, the weakening of the MJO phase, as indicated by the latest ECMWF forecast, implies less intense rains in the coming weeks. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) are as follows: Moderate cumulative rainfall of 50 mm and above is possible over for south-central parts of the country including the border areas of Dinsoor and Qansax Dheere districts in Bay region and Bardheere district in Gedo region. Similar rains are also likely over Sablaale and Baraawe disctricts in Lower Shabelle region. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is likely over most parts of Lower Juba region, Dinsoor, western parts of Buur Hakaba district and northern parts of Baydhaba district in Bay region; Sablaale, Baraawe, Kurtunwaarey and Marka districts in Lower Shabelle region; Garbahaarey and Ceel Waaq districts in Gedo region; and eastern parts of Ceel Barde district and southern parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool region. Light but very localized rains are possible over central parts of Belet Weyne district and southwestern parts of Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, eastern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region, central parts of Ceel Afweyn district in Sanaag region, and narrow coastal parts of Mudug and Nugaal regions and narrow northern coastal parts of Bari region. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over Middle Shabelle, Galgaduud, Sool, Awdal and Woqqoyi Galbeed regions, non-costal parts of Mudug, Nugaal and Bari regions, and most other parts of Hiraan, Togdheer and Sanaag regions. Dry conditions are also possible over Saakow district in Middle Juba region, western parts of Bardheere district in Gedo region, Rab Dhuure, Waajid and Xudur districts and northern parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool region, southern parts of Baydhaba district and eastern parts of Buur Hakaba district in Bay region, Jalalaqsi district, most other parts of Bulo Burte district and eastern parts Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region.