Based on the NOAA-NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) forecast, light to moderate rain is expected over several areas in the southern parts of the country with dry conditions expected to prevail over Somaliland and Puntland. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) are as follows: Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over several areas in the southern parts of the country including most parts of Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Bay, and Lower Shabelle regions; some parts of Gedo particularly Ceel Waaq and Bardheere districts; parts of Middle Shabelle region particularly Jowhar and Balcad districts; parts of Bakool region particularly Xudur and Ceel Barde districts; western parts of Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region; southern parts of Gebiley district and Hargeisa town in Woqooyi Galbeed region; Buuhoodle district and southern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region; northern coastal parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region. It is important to note that such rains are likely to fall over the Juba River catchment within and outside the country. While the rains over the upper and central catchment of the Shabelle River will be very light, they may increase in intensity over the lower sections in Middle Shabelle including Jowhar. Moderate cumulative rainfall of 50 mm to 100 mm is likely to occur over isolated areas in Lower Juba region particularly southern parts of Afmadow district; and areas bordering Sablaale and Baraawe districts and northern border areas of Kurtunwarey and Qoryooley districts in Lower Shabelle region. It is important to note that intense but isolated rains of above 100 mm may be observed over areas in Lower Juba bordering Kenya. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over most parts Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sanaag, Sool, Bari, Nugaal, Mudug and Galgaduud regions; most parts of Hiraan region particularly Bulo Burte and Jalaqsi districts and eastern parts of Belet Weyne; eastern parts of Middle Shabelle region particularly Adan Yabaal district and the northern parts of Cadale district; and some parts of Bakool region particularly Waajid, Rab Dhuure and Tayeeglow districts.