Somalia Flood Advisory for Juba and Shabelle Rivers - Issued 29 October 2023
Juba River: High Risk of Riverine Flooding at Dollow, Luuq, and Bardheere and High Risk of Flash Flooding in Gedo region Shabelle River: High Risk of Flash Flooding in Hiraan, Bay and Bakool Regions and Moderate Risk of Riverine Flooding at Belet Weyne, Bulo Burti and Jowhar Juba River Catchment: Following the moderate to heavy rains, significant fluctuations in water levels have been observed along the Juba River since Wednesday 25th November 2023 when SWALIM issued its weekly bulletin. Today’s (29th October 2023) water levels represent an increase from 3.78 m to 5.46 m at Dollow, an increase from 4.58 m to 6.20 m at Luuq, an increase from 7.10 m to 9.00 m at Bardheere, and a slight decrease 7.40 m to 7.00 m at Bualle. The rains over Bardheere have particularly been heavy with 110.0 mm received on 28th and 86.0 mm received today (29th November 2023) with flash flooding incidences reported. The high flood risk levels have subsequently been surpassed by 46 cm, 20 cm and 80 cm at Dollow, Luuq and Bardheere, respectively. The implication is that the water levels are now just 54 cm, 80 cm and 140 cm below the bankful levels at Dollow, Luuq and Bardheere, respectively. The runoff from the forecast moderate rains over its catchment in the next 24 hours accumulating to about 100 mm in the next three days around the central parts of Gedo region, are likely to sustain the river level rise. The large volume of water upstream is likely to also lead to a rise in the water levels at Bualle to high risk level. There is therefore a high risk of riverine flooding along the entire stretch of Juba River particularly at Dollow, Luuq and Bardheere. There is also a high risk of flash flooding in Gedo region particularly areas bordering Kenya. Shabelle River Catchment:Fluctuations in water levels have also been observed along the Shabelle River. Today’s (29th October 2023) water levels represent an increase from 6.22 m to 6.40 m at Beletweyne, an increase from 5.48 m to 5.76 m at Bulo Burte, and a slight decrease from 4.28 m to 4.20 m at Jowhar. These fluctuations mean that water levels are now just 10 cm, 74 cm and 80 cm below moderate flood risk levels at Beletweyne, Bulo Burte and Jowhar, respectively. Although moderate rains received in Hirshabelle have not been at stations near the main river channel, the runoff from the forecast heavy rains over its catchment in the 24 hours accumulating to over 10 mm in the next three days in some areas in Hiraan, are likely to lead to a sharp rise in the river levels. Similarly heavy rains are likely in some areas in Bakool and Bay region. There is therefore a high risk of flash flooding in low lying and other vulnerable areas in densely populated areas in Hiraan, Bakool and Bay region. There is moderate risk of riverine flooding along the entire stretch of Shabelle River worsening to high risk after three days.
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