Extremely heavy rainfall is expected over Gedo, Lower Juba, Hiran, and Togdheer regions; moderate to heavy rainfall is anticipated over several other parts except for Bari region and coastal areas of the country where light rains is expected. A three -days forecast shows that much of these rains are likely to be received between 1st and 3rd November 2023. The spatio-temperal variation of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) is described below: • Extremely heavy rainfall of between 150 mm and 200 mm is expected over several areas in Gedo region, Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, southern parts of Saakow district in Middle Juba region, Beletweyne and Bulo Burte districts in Hiraan region, southern parts of Togdheer region, and Las Anod. The rains particularly over Gedo region, northern parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region, southern parts of Beletweyne district and northern parts of Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, and Buuhodle district and southern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region are likely to be very intense leading up more than 200 mm. Rains of comparable amounts is also forecast over the middle and upper catchments of both Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Ethiopian Highlands. • Moderate to heavy rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is forecast over most areas in Bakool, Bay, Saakow and Jilib districts in Middle Juba region, Cabudwaaq district in Galgaduud region, Galdogob district, eastern and southern parts of Gaalkayo district and northern parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region, and isolated areas in Lower Juba region. Towards the north, rainfall of similar amounts is also anticipated over several areas in Togdheer and Sool regions, Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region, Ceel Afweyn district and southern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region, Burtinle district in Nugaal region, and isolated areas in Bari region. • Light to rainfall of below 50 mm is expected over several areas in Lower Shabelle and Middle Shabelle regions, central parts of Lower Juba region, Bualle district in middle Juba region, and Jalalaqsi district in Hiraan region. Such rains are also expected over the central parts of the country including Galgaduud region, Xarardheere district and southern parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region, Eyl and Garowe districts in Nugaal region. In the north, rains of such amounts are expected over several areas in Bari region, Laasqoray district and eastern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region, Gebiley district and central parts of Berbera district in Woqooyi Galbeed, Baki and Lughaye districts in Awdal region. • Dry conditions are expected over the coastal areas in both Iskushuban and Caluula districts in Bari region and the southern parts of Borama district and western parts of Zeylac district in Awdal region.

Vey light rainfall expected over the Berbera district in the northeastern parts of the project area, with dry conditions prevailing in the other areas. Weather Review for the Period 14th to 20th November 2023 During the period under review, rainfall of at least 1 mm was observed in thirty-four (34) stations, as illustrated in Graph 1. This marks an increase from the previous week's thirteen (13) stations with recorded rainfall. Twenty stations (20) reported cumulative rainfall exceeding 30 mm. The specific stations, their respective rainfall totals and rainy days are as follows: Laas Dawaco (122 mm in 2 days), Bulohar (110 mm in 2 days), Gacan_libah (97 mm in 3 days), Malawle (75 mm in 2 days), Gargara (61 mm in 1 days), Baligubadle (59 mm in 2 days), Gerisa (58.5 mm in 2 days), Berbera (56 mm in 2 days), Hargeisa (55 mm in 2 days), Salaxley (53 mm in 2 days), Xeego (50 mm in 2 days), Garbodadar (47.5 mm in 1 days), Lughaye (46 mm in 3 days), Sayla (45 mm in 1 days), Dhubato (43.5 mm in 2 days), Cadaadley (35 mm in 1 days), Dararweyne (34.5 mm in 3 days), Geedeble (34 mm in 1 days), Zaila (34 mm in 2 days), and Taysa (33 mm in 2 days). Having been recorded on one of the days of the week under review, the rains over Bulohar (70 mm), Laas_Dawaco (68 mm), Gargara (61 mm) and Gacan_libah (56 mm) were the most intense. The best three-days rainfall distribution was achieved over Gacan_libah, (97 mm), Lughaye (46 mm) and Dararweyne (34.5 mm). Weather Forecast for the Period 22nd to 28th November 2023 Rainfall Forecast: The weather forecast indicates very light rainfall of between 2 and 5 mm over the northeastern parts of the project area. These areas include western parts of Berbera, Banmadar and Cabdi Geeddi in the eastern part of Baki district; Ceel Lay Heelay, Bildhaaley, Bodale and Daradawanley in the northern part of Hargeisa district. Dry conditions with chances of rainfall less than 2 mm will prevail over the rest of the project areas. Temperature Forecast: Milder temperature of 20 ℃ to 25 ℃ is expected over some areas in the south of Gebiley district and in the southwest of Hargeisa district. Comparatively higher temperature of between 30 ℃ and 35 ℃ is anticipated in Lughaye district and some areas in the northeastern parts of Baki district. Moderate temperatures of between 25 ℃ to 30 ℃ are expected to prevail over the rest of the project areas.

In the next week heavy rainfall is expected over parts of Gedo, Bay, and Galgaduud regions, and moderate to heavy rainfall over most other parts of the country. Dry conditions with chances of isolated light rainfall are however expected in Bari region. Much of the forecast rains over Galgaduud and Bay regions are likely to be received between 15th and 17th November 2023. The spatio-temperal variation of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) is described below: • Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected over the western areas of Gedo Specifically in Ceel Waaq, Belet Xaawo, isolated parts of Luuq, Dollow, and Garbahaarey. Likewise, Baydhaba in Bay, along with parts of Xuddur, Tayeeglow, and Waajid bordering Bay in the Bakool region, are expected to experience similar intense rainfall. In Galgaduud, comparable weather conditions are expected, particularly over Cabudwaaq and Cadaado. Additionally, isolated areas in Hiraan and Sanaag are also likely to encounter heavy rainfall during this period. The Ethiopian highlands is also expected to receive high to moderate rainfall over the forecast period • Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is forecast over extensive areas in Gedo, Bay, Bakool, Hiraan, Galgaduud, and Mudug regions. Similar conditions are also anticipated in the northwestern regions of the country, particularly over Lughaye and Baki in Awdal, the northern areas of Gebilley, Sheikh in Togdheer, extensive parts of Woqooyi Galbeed, as well as Ceel Afweyn and Ceerigavo in the Sanaag region. • Light rainfall of below 50 mm is expected over several areas in Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle regions, parts of Dinsor and Burhakabar in Bay region, Jalalaqsi in Hiraan region, Ceel Buur, Ceel Dheere and parts of Dhuusamarreeb in Galgaduud, extensive part of Mudug, Nuugal, Bari, Sool, Sanaag regions, Zeylac and Borama in Awdal region, Hargeisa and Southern parts of Gebilley in Woqooyi Galbeed, Burco, Buuhodle and most parts of Odweyne in Togheer, most parts of Bosasso, Qandala, Coastal parts of Callula, Isolated pasts of Iskushuban and Qardho in Bari region. • Dry conditions are expected over isolated areas in Sanaag, Taleex, Qardo, Iskushuban, Callula, extensive parts of Bandarbeyla, northern parts of Eyl and Isolated parts of Lower Juba.

Juba River Catchment Over the past three days, there has been a notable increase in both the amount and intensity of rainfall in the Gedo region and the Ethiopian highlands. The current water levels along the Juba River are now only 8 cm below bankful level at Dollow, 14 cm at Luuq, and under 40 cm at Bardheere. The ongoing heavy rainfall, coupled with the forecasted moderate rains in the next 24 hours, with an accumulation of approximately 150 mm over the next three days across Gedo, are expected to cause the river level to reach bankful height. This presents a high risk of riverine flooding along the entire stretch of the Juba River. Additionally, there is a high risk of flash flooding in the Gedo region, particularly in the Garbahaarey district within the next 24 hours. Residents in Deeday, Buulo Oomin, Tuutees, and Dhayba should take all necessary precautions to ensure their safety. Necessary anticipatory action should be taken. Shabelle River Catchment There has been a slight increase in water levels along the Shabelle River. The water levels are currently just 8.0 cm, 50.0 cm and 70.0 cm below the moderate flood risk levels at Beletweyne, Bulo Burte and Jowhar, respectively. The runoff from forecast moderate rains within the catchment over the next three days in HirShabelle, is likely to lead to a gradual rise in water levels with moderate risk of flooding along the Shabelle River. There are also reports of high flood wave approaching the Somali-Ethiopia border which is projected to lead to a significant river level rise in 3 to 4 days. Flash Floods Within the next 24 hours, heavy rains are anticipated over most areas of Bakool and Bay regions. As a result, there is a high risk of flash flooding in low-lying and vulnerable areas, particularly in Buur Hakabar, Diinsoor, Qansax Dheere, and Baydhaba districts in Bay, as well as Waajid and Ceel Barde districts in Bakool. Most parts of Middle Juba, including areas around Jilib, are expected to receive rainfall exceeding 100 mm, with coastal areas of Jilib experiencing particularly high amounts of over 200 mm, posing a significant risk of flash floods especially around Jiirta and Kuunyo-Burrow. Similarly, areas along the border of Hobyo and Jariiban districts in Mudug are likely to receive rainfall exceeding 200 mm, potentially leading to flash floods over Xingaras, Dhinooda, Ceel Dhahanaan, and Ceel Bacduur. Residents around the mentioned areas should take precautionary measures to ensure their safety.

Light rainfall of below 50 mm is expected over the coastal parts of Adan Yabaal, Cadale, and Balcad districts in Middle Shabelle region, as well as Banadir, coastal parts of Jilib district in Middle Juba region, Jamame, Kismayo, and Badhaadhe districts, and the border areas between Afmadow and Kismayo districts in Lower Juba region. Similarly light rains are also anticipated over areas bordering Bur Hakaba district in Bay region and Qoryooley district in Lower Shabelle region. Dry conditions are expected to prevail over the rest of the country in the upcoming week. Similar dry conditions are also expected over the Ethiopian Highlands. Temperature Forecast The current forecast indicates the likelihood of high temperatures ranging from 30 ℃ to 35 ℃ over extensive areas in the south, central and northeastern parts of the country. Milder temperatures ranging between 20 ℃ and 25 ℃ are anticipated over some areas in the following regions: Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer and Sanaag regions and inland parts of Bari region. Moderate temperatures of 25℃ to 30 ℃ will prevail over the rest of the country.

Moderate to heavy rains expected over inland parts of Central and North Eastern regions particularly around parts of Gedo, Bay, Bakool and Hiraan regions in South Somalia, parts of Mudug and Galgaduud regions in central Somalia and parts of Sool, Sanaag and Bari regions in Northern Somalia. Moderate rainfall of between 50 and 100 mm is forecast over eastern parts of Bakool region particularly Tayeeglow; northern parts of Bay region, and several areas in Hiraan region particularly Belet Weyne, Mahas, and Mataban (Map 1). Rainfall of similar amounts is also likely over Jariiban district in Mudug, Xasbahale district in Nugaal, and Laas Caanon, Xudun, and Taleex districts in Sool. The rains are likely to spread outwards and intensify over Bay, Hiraan, Mudug and Nugaal and prevail beyond the forecast period to cumulative amounts above 100 mm. Other places forecast to receive comparable amounts of rainfall include Garadag, Dhahar, and Buran in Sanaag region, Qardho and Dangoroyo in Bari region, Buuhodle, Balidhiig, and Warabeye in Togdheer region. Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is anticipated across several areas in Somalia. These include Burao, Beer, and Xaaji Saalax in Togheer region; Caynabo, Waridaad, and Yagori in Sool region; Erigavo and El Afweyne in Sanaag region; Ufayn, Ballidhig, and Bandar Beyla districts in Bari region; Garowe and Burtinle districts in Nugaal region; extensive parts of Mudug region; inland areas of Galgaduud region, particularly around Dhuusamarreb, Cadaado, and Cabudwaaq districts; Adan Yabaal and Jowhar in Middle Shabelle region; Wanla Weyne district in Lower Shabelle region; areas around Baidoa and Qansahdere in Bay region; areas around Luuq and Bardheere in Gedo region, as well as areas around Jamame, Kismaayo, and Badhaadhe districts in Lower Juba region. Dry conditions are likely over extensive areas in Awdal region, Woqooyi Galbeed region, western and northern parts of Togdheer region, as well as coastal and western parts of Sanaag region. Similar dry conditions are likely over extensive coastal and northwestern areas of Bari region, Galkayo district and the southern coastal parts of Mudug region, coastal parts of Galgaduud region, and coastal parts of both Lower and Middle Shabelle regions. Dry conditions are also anticipated over Banadir region, southern parts of Bay region, northern and western parts of Gedo region, as well as extensive areas of Lower and Middle Juba.

Significant fluctuations in water levels along the Juba River have been observed. The Juba River surpassed the high-risk thresholds by 10 cm at Luuq on 21st October before decreasing below moderate risk level as of today. Downstream at Bardheere Station, the water level rose from 8.00 m on 21st October to 9.00 m and crossing high-risk threshold (8.20 m) on 22nd October before receding back to 8.00 m today. The downstream flow of the flood wave has led to a 1.1 m rise in the water level at Bualle which currently poses no immediate threat of riverine flooding. Moderate to heavy rains (50 – 100 mm) are expected over the catchment of Juba River within Gedo region and near-border areas with Ethiopia between 23rd and 29th October. The rains over the upper catchment in Ethiopian Highlands may exceed 200 mm posing high risk of riverine flooding towards the end of the forecast period. There is a high risk of flash flooding due to potential localized heavy rains over western parts of Bakool, central parts of Gedo, and Saakow district in Middle Juba region. The water levels along the upper part of Shabelle River are on downward trend. On 21st October, the water level at Beletweyne (6.44 m) was only 6 cm below the moderate flood risk threshold. The levels have since dropped to 6.10 m today. The downstream flow of the flood wave has led to an increase in the water level at Bulo Burte from 4.95 m on 21st October to 5.28 m today. The water level at Jowhar station has also risen during the same time from 3.95 m to 4.28 m. These levels, at both stations, are still below riverine flood risk thresholds. Moderate rainfall (31.5 mm) led to flash floods that affected Badda Cas IDP camp interrupting livelihood activities. Moderate rainfall of about 50 mm is expected over Shabelle River catchment within Hiraan region and near-border areas with Ethiopia. Coupled with the heavy rains recorded one week ago, the heavy rains (more than 150 mm) forecast over the Shabelle River upper catchment in Ethiopian Highlands, are likely to pose high risk of riverine flooding at Beletweyne towards the end of October and beginning of November 2023.

Somalia grapples with the looming impacts of an impending El Niño, exacerbating the ongoing climate change challenges. Recurrent riverine and flash floods, particularly in urban centers are of significant concern. Urgent action is needed to prepare for and mitigate the forthcoming El Niño floods, aiming to safeguard lives and mitigate economic losses. Key to this strategy is proactive flood management, involving timely evacuations to higher ground. Identifying suitable elevated areas serves a dual purpose, ensuring safety and facilitating aid delivery. In this regard a rigorous GIS & RS methodology by SWALIM considered nine crucial factors, such as historical flood extent, elevation, slope, topographic wetness index, drainage density, strategic boreholes, settlements, land cover, and roads, to isolate higher grounds suitable for evacuation. The resulting maps show safe areas for evacuation in case of flooding, while exercising discretion considering factors like proximity to schools, healthcare facilities, pest prevalence and any other unforeseen factors

Moderate to heavy rains are expected over Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Gedo, Bakool and Hiraan regions. Given the general light rainfall activity in the next 7-days, much of the rains are likely to be observed between 28th and 31st October 2023. The spatio-temperal variation of the forecast rainfall is described below: Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is forecast over several areas in the central parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region and the northern parts of Owdweyne district in Togdheer region, central parts of Gedo region, Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, and Saakow district in Middle Juba region. Heavy localized rains over these areas are likely to exceed 150 mm with possible cumulative amounts of about 200 mm in Wogooyi Galbeed, northern parts of Owdweyne district in Togdheer region and Bulo Burte in Hiraan region. Very heavy rainfall of above 200 mm is likely over the upper catchments of both Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Ethiopian Highlands. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is expected over Baki district in Awdal region, southern parts, Sheikh and Berbera districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region, northern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region, Ceel Afwyene and Ceerigaabo districts in Sanaag region, and Bosasso district in Bari region. Moderate rains are also anticipated over several areas in both Gedo and Bakool regions, Saakow district in Middle Juba region, and Bur Hakaba district in Bay region. In the central parts of the country, rainfall of similar amounts is likely over Gaalkacyo in Mudug region, Cabuudwaaq in Galgaduud region, Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, and Cadale and Balcad districts in middle Shabelle region. Light rainfall of below 50 mm is likely over the rest of the country except for the following areas where dry conditions are expected to prevail: several areas in Bari, Lower Juba and Middle Shabelle regions, southern parts of Bay region, non-coastal parts of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region, non-coastal parts of Xarardheere district in Mudug region, Garowe district and coastal parts of Eyl district in Nugaal region, and Las Anod district. Temperature Forecast: Elevated temperatures between 35°C and 45°C are likely over Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, southern parts of Dinsor and Bur Hakaba districts in Bay region, Jowhar district in Middle Shabelle region, and Sheikh district in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Milder temperatures of between 20°C and 25°C are likely over the highlands in central parts of Sanaag region and northern parts of Bari regions. The rest of the country is expected to observe moderate temperatures between 25°C and 35°C.

Moderate to heavy rainfall of between 50 and 100 mm is anticipated in the northern regions of the country, especially in proximity to Gebiley, Hargeisa, and areas adjacent to the Ethiopian border in Woqooyi Galbeed. Part of Togheer region is expected to experience similar high amount of rainfall especially Sheikh, Odweyn and Buuhoodle districts. In Sanaag region the highest amount of rainfall within the forecast period is expected in Ceel Afweyn and Erigavo districts. Areas around Qardho and Qandala in Bari, as well as Garowe and Burtinle in Nugaal, should anticipate a comparable pattern. Rainfall of comparable amounts is also likely to be observed in many parts of Sool region with chances of heavier storms localized over Xudun, Taleex, and Buuhodle districts. Other parts of the country expected to receive moderate to heavy rainfall include Galkayo and Hobyo in Mudug, Waajid in Bakool, Diinsor in Bay, and Bualle in Middle Juba Region. It is important to point out that rainfall of similarly moderate to heavy amounts is forecast over the Ethiopian highlands. Within Somalia, the heaviest precipitation is projected to occur during the initial three days of the forecast period especially in the northern parts of the country. Light to moderate rainfall is anticipated in Ceel Waaq and Luuq districts in Gedo, Baydhaba in Bay, extensive areas of Bakool, parts of Hiraan particularly Jalalaqsi and Bulo Burti districts, Ceel Buur and Cabudwaaq in Galgaduud, and most parts of western Muduug. The rest of the country is likely to experience scattered light showers throughout the week as per the forecast.