The El Nino driven 2023 Deyr rains followed by good 2024 Gu rains, led to replenishment of both surface and ground water sources in Somalia. The spatial variability of the rains however meant different implications on the different aquifers across the country. In Somaliland, the good temporal and spatial distribution of the rains ensured good recharge of ground water sources in most areas. The Karan rains that fall during the normal Hagaa dry period ensured continued replenishment of the ground water sources. South and central Somalia also received average to above average rains in most of the monitored stations. However in Puntland , the below normal rainfall received during this period led to minimal recharge of ground water sources. Between May and September 2024, FAO SWALIM has installed and started the hourly monitoring of 35 boreholes across Somalia. The installation of the hardware is complete, and majority of the stations transmitting data online. There are however few with technical hitches either in the data recording or transmission, and these are being sorted to ensure complete network functionality by end of November 2024. The installed groundwater level monitoring stations provide near real-time data on aquifer fluctuations, enabling efficient and effective management of the water resources. The collected data is analyzed to track changes in aquifer storage, identify areas of potential depletion, and assess the impact of pumping and recharge activities.

Based on the seasonal forecast, the onset of Deyr rains is expected over Puntland and southmost parts of the country. According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, moderate rainfall expected over central parts of Somaliland, light rains over isolated areas in Puntland and dry conditions over Central and Southern parts of the Country. The spatial spread of the forecast rainfall conditions are as follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50.0 and 100.0 mm is forecast over northern parts of both Gebiley and Hargeisa districts spreading outwards particularly at the districts’ border areas. Light rainfall of less than 50.0 mm is expected in the rest of the areas in Gebiley district and northern parts of Hargesisa district; Borama district in Awdal region; Sheikh district in Togdheer region; isolated areas in northern Sanaag particularly around Ceerigaabo; southern parts of both Qardho and Bandarbeyla districts in Bari region; isolated areas in Burtinle and Eyl districts in Nugaal region and coastal parts of both Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts in Lower Juba region. There are also chances of light rains in very isolated areas in Sool and Mudug regions and Dhuusamarreeb district in Galgaduud region. Dry conditions are likely over rest of the inland areas of the country including most places over Gedo, Middle Juba, Lower Juba, Bay, Bakool, Middle Shabelle and Hiraan regions. Similar conditions are likely over most parts of the Juba and Shabelle River catchments within Somali and across in Ethiopia.

Based on the seasonal forecast, the third week of October signals the onset of Deyr rains over much of the country with general southwards spread from Somaliland. According to NOAA-NCEP GFS the previous rains and cloudiness over the north is forecast to spread southwards from Somaliland and parts of Puntland with the southward migration of the ITCZ to the central regions leading up to moderate amounts of about 50 mm. However, this southward spread is expected to weaken thereby leading to only light rains and dry conditions further south particularly over inland areas. The spatial spread of the forecast rainfall conditions are as follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50.0 and 100.0 mm is likely to to spread southwards this coming week to some isolated parts of the following central regions: Galgaduud, Mudug, Hiraan and Bakool. Moderate rains are also likely over some areas in within the Shabelle and Juba River catchments in Ethiopia. Light rainfall of less than 50.0 mm is expected over other areas in the central parts of the country including Galgaduud, Mudug, Hiraan and Bakool regions. Light rains are also likely over vast areas within the Shabelle and Juba River catchments in Ethiopia. The cloudiness over Bakool is likely to spread further leading to light rains over Luuq and Garbahaarey districts in Gedo region and Baidoa district in Bay region. Light coastal rains are likely over Lower Juba and Middle Juba regions. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over with the inland areas in southern regions including over Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle regions, Doolow, Belet Xaawo, Baardheere districts in Gedo region, Qansax Dheere, Dinsoor and Buur Hakaba districts in Bay region.

Seasonal rainfall is critical to lives and livelihoods within the Horn of Africa drylands (HAD), but it is highly variable in space and time. The main HAD rainfall seasons are typically defined as March–May (MAM) and October–December (OND). However, these 3-month periods are only generalized definitions of seasonality across the HAD, and local experience of rainfall may depart from these substantially. Here, we use daily rain gauge data with a duration of at least 10 years from 69 stations across the drylands of Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia to locally delineate key rainfall seasons. By calculating local seasonal rainfall timings, totals, and extremes, we obtain more accurate estimates of the spatial variability in rainfall delivery across the HAD, as well as climatological patterns. Results show high spatial variability in season onset, cessation, and length across the region, indicating that a homogenous classification of rainfall seasons across the HAD (e.g., MAM and OND) is inadequate for representing local rainfall characteristics. Our results show that the “long rains” season is not significantly longer than the “short rains” season over the period of study. This could be related to the previously documented decline of the “long rains” seasonal totals over recent decades. Several rainfall metrics also vary spatially between seasons, and the rainfall on the most extreme days can accumulate to double the local mean seasonal total. The locally defined rainfall seasons better capture the bulk of the rainfall during the season, giving improved characterization of rainfall metrics, consistent with the aim of a better understanding of rainfall impacts on local communities.

According to ICPAC, the October-November-December forecast indicates a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall driven by La Niña conditions. Additionally, there is a high probability of a delayed onset of rains in the southern and central parts of the country. These challenges are further compounded by above-normal temperatures, which, combined with below-normal rainfall, are expected to lead to a severe loss of soil moisture due to increased evapotranspiration. This will have serious implications for crop and fodder production, particularly in regions reliant on rainfed agriculture and pastoralist activities. Without adequate moisture retention, soil conditions will worsen, directly impacting food and fodder availability for both human and livestock populations. While it is acknowledged that there are inherent uncertainties associated with seasonal forecasting, this uncertainty should not be an excuse for inaction. Instead, the uncertainties must be met with flexibility and preparedness, ensuring that proactive steps are taken to safeguard communities and sectors at risk

10 September 2024, Mogadishu, Somalia – The National Climate Co-Production, Application and Action Planning (NCCAAP), convened a forum on the DEYR 2024 Season. The forum deliberated on the critical climate forecast of below-normal rainfall, a delayed onset of rains, and the impacts of higher-than-normal temperatures in Somalia. The forum brought together climate scientists, decision-makers, and representatives from key sectors, including agriculture, water resources, disaster risk management, and humanitarian organizations, to assess the implications of these projections and plan anticipatory actions to mitigate the forecasted conditions.

This flood advisory is applicable to Hirshabelle – Belet Weyne, Bulo Burte, Jalalaqsi, Jowhar, Balcad districts and the surrounding areas. Even with the absence of rains in Somalia and eastern parts of Ethiopia, the continued downflow of water from the upper catchments in central portions of Ethiopian Highlands has led to a sustained rise in the levels along the Shabelle river. Due to the distance of flow, the river system has taken more than a month to respond to the rains observed in the central parts of Ethiopian Highlands. After the river level at Belet Weyne steadily dropped from the bankful level (8.30 m) on 24 May 2024, a slow upward trend began on 11 July 2024. The river level consistently rose thereafter but relatively stable and below the moderate flood risk level in July, and only crossing the moderate flood risk level on 8 August 2024. In the last 48 hours, the river at Belet Weyne has approached its critical zone with today’s level being 10 cm above high flood risk threshold (7.30 m) posing high risk of flooding. This signals a need for close monitoring and potential flood preparedness particularly at vulnerable breakage points. As expected, a similar pattern has been observed downstream at Bulo Burte where the river level began a consistent rise from a low of 2.63 m on 14 July 2024 to 6.52 m today (24 August 2024) which is 2 cm above moderate flood risk level (6.50 m). About the same time (13 July 2024), the level at Jowhar also observed a steady rise which has however been stable in the last week with today’s level being 22 cm below moderate flood risk level (5.00 m). The reported flood episodes at Jowhar and Balcad are therefore occasioned by river breakages and not overbank spillage. Nonetheless, the floods at Balcad are reported to have affected 27 villages with approximately 10,000 people in need of emergency relief in terms of shelter, WASH, health and nutrition support. Considering the lag-effect of the observed rains in central parts of Ethiopian Highlands in the last one month and the light rains to dry conditions forecast over the catchment in both Somalia and Ethiopia, the river levels are expected to rise further but not to bankful levels in the coming week. There is therefore an EMERGING HIGH RIVERINE FLOODING RISK AT BELET WEYNE and MODERATE RIVERINE FLOODING RISK DOWNSTREAM AT BULO BURTE, and low overbank flooding risk downstream at Jalalaqsi, Jowhar and Balcad, but continued episodes of breakage driven flooding at Jowhar and Balcad.

The Food and Agriculture Organization’s Somalia Water and Land Information Management (FAO SWALIM) Project, has finalized the analysis and mapping of the river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle rivers using very high resolution satellite imagery. Breakages identified in the map have been classified into five categories; Open, Overflow, Canal Breakage and Canal Intake Flooding and Closed with sandbags. A legend/Key for further explanation of the different types of breakages is provided. A long the Shabelle river, a total of 171 Open points, 2 Canal Breakages, 51 Canal flooding points, 323 Overflow points and 17 points closed with sandbags have been identified while 104 Open points, 1 Canal Breakage, 16 Canal flooding points, 83 Overflow points and 1 point closed with sandbags have been identified. Several other points, which are either potential or temporarily closed with sandbags, have also been identified. There is a need to close the open points and reinforce areas where there are weak river embankments to avoid loss of lives and livelihoods during the upcoming Deyr season.

Several key findings have been obtained following a review of the 2024 Gu (March-April-May) rains and forecast of Hagaa (June-July-August) season: The heaviest cumulative rainfall was observed in Hiraan region (408.2 mm at Belet Weyne) and Woqooyi Galbeed region (477.0 mm at Gumburaha station); with the least rainfall observed over Puntland. There was more than 3 weeks-long dry spell in all the stations in the country with even longer than two months over some stations in Puntland. The earliest rains (in March) of equal or more than 20 mm per day was observed in some stations in Somaliland with no single station in South and Central Somalia and Puntland that received daily rains of such intensity in the same month. Based on the adopted definition of onset, there was a staggered start to the rainy season across the stations with the earliest onset observed in Qansadhere in Bay region on March 24, 2024, and the latest onset in Gacan-libaah in Togdheer region on May 3, 2024. Over the Juba and Shabelle River Catchments, the above normal rains were evenly spread with less consecutive rainy days and therefore moderate flood magnitude. However, the close to double the LTM rains observed at Doolow (117.5 mm) on 07-May-24, and the more than double the average rainfall at Belet Weyne resulted in to floods, displacing 7,100 families in Belet Weyne town. On a positive note, the rains observed in Gu across most other parts of the country were beneficial to agropastoral livelihoods in many aspects including favorable soil moisture conditions for crop and fodder production, and replenishment of surface and ground water sources. The more than a month-long dry spell within the season however posed a serious threat to the survival of crops and water retention in both open, shallow and groundwater sources. According to IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC), wetter than usual conditions are expected over few areas in north-western and southern coastal parts of the country with rest of the country remaining usually dry over the Hagaa season. According to Climate Prediction Centre (CPC), there is a 65 % chance that the present ENSO-neutral conditions will favor the development of La Niña later in July-September. Depending on the evolution of other drivers including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), this may drive below normal Deyr 2024 conditions over Somalia. The below normal rainfall conditions associated with the even better likelihood (85 %) of La Niña persisting into November-December-January may trigger a multi-season drought with a potential reversal of the currently achieved agropastoral gains. This bulletin presents both qualitative and quantitative review of the temporal and spatial variation of the observed, and verification of the forecast Gu rainfall amount and anomaly, length of wet and dry spells, and onset dates. It also reviews the experienced (Gu) and current (Hagaa) and long term projected (Deyr) weather impacts on livelihoods over Somalia.

Somalia, with almost 2/3 of its land devoted to agriculture and livestock rearing, is facing the negative impacts of uncontrolled deforestation activities. A key driver of such a trend is the extensive and often illicit charcoal production, which leads to forest degradation dynamics and the depletion of the country's woody resources. To monitor and quantify these tendencies, remote sensing offers many advantages in terms of temporal and spatial coverage. Our study aimed to develop a workflow capable of integrating optical (Sentinel-2) and radar (Sentinel-1) imagery to detect charcoal production sites (i.e., kilns) in Somalia. Most of the processing was implemented in Google Earth Engine, enabling it to be fully replicable and easily scalable to other regions. Southern Somalia (Jubbaland State, approx. 110200 km2) was chosen as the test area since charcoal exploitation represents a critical issue in the region. Furthermore, a very detailed dataset, produced by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO-SWALIM) through photo-interpretation of kilns’ presence, was available for the area. Our methodology started by producing a single image containing both optical (NDVI) and radar (VV and VH polarizations) information over the first three months of 2016 and 2017. Subsequently, we calculated the difference between the two images and extracted the pixel values in correspondence with the known charcoal sites. Based on the extracted values, different thresholds (e.g., the mean +/- a set number of standard deviations) were tested for classifying the difference image. The results consisted of binary maps at 10 m resolution, showing locations with kilns’ presence or absence. A confusion matrix was used to evaluate the classifications. Overall accuracy reached almost 70% in some cases, while sensitivity and specificity were more variable (0.4 to 0.9), depending on the utilized threshold. Particularly, some of the classifications proved to be very balanced, with values around 0.7 for all three parameters of accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Our results demonstrate that a multi-sensor remote sensing approach is a valuable and reliable tool to monitor and quantify forest degradation dynamics, particularly considering the socio-political context of some countries, where in situ data collection is often difficult, when not dangerous.