After the GHACOF-71, the 2nd National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF) for the October–December (Deyr) 2025 season was convened in Mogadishu, Somalia, from 2nd to 3rd September 2025 under the theme “Climate Science and Forecasting for a Resilient The major highlights were; Poor and late Deyr rains: Most of Somalia is forecast to receive below-normal rainfall, with a delayed onset, especially in the south. Hotter than usual: Above-average temperatures will worsen drought, water stress, and health risks Northern drought persists: Conditions in Somaliland and Puntland are expected to deteriorate further. Flood risks remain: Despite the dry forecast, localized flash floods and river overflows remain a threat in flood-prone areas Livelihoods at risk: Short and erratic rains will limit farming recovery and stress livestock. Therefore, urgent need for drought response in the north, safeguarding gains in the south, proactive flood, water, and health preparedness

Based on the ICPAC seasonal forecast, the Deyr rains are likely to begin in the first dekad of October in Togdheer, Sool and Nugaal regions. According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, widespread light rainfall is expected over most parts of Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, Sanaag and Hiraan regions and some inland parts of Nugaal, Mudug, and Galgaduud regions. The spatial spread of the forecast rainfall conditions are as follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50.0 and 100.0 mm is forecast over northern parts of Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region; northern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region; southwestern parts of Qardo district in Bari region; eastern parts of Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region; western and eastern parts of Buuhodle district in Togdheer region; and western parts of Laas Caanood district in Sool region. The intensity of the rains over northern parts of both Hargeisa and Ceerigaabo districts may lead up to more than 100 mm at the end of the forecast week. Heavy rainfall above 150 mm is likely over the upper catchments of Shabelle River in Ethiopia in the far north-eastern highlands of Gode city. Light rainfall of less than 50.0 mm is expected over most other parts of Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag regions; and most other parts of Qardo, Bulo Burte, Buuhodle, and Laas Caanood districts. Similarly light rains are also expected over most parts of Borama and Baki districts in Awdal region; Qandala and Bandarbeyla districts in Bari region; Garowe and Burtinle districts in Nugaal region; Galkacyo district and inland parts of bothJ ariiban and Hobyo districts in Mudug region; Cadaado, Dhuusamarreeb and Cabudwaaq districts in Galgaduud region; Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region; Ceel Barde and Tayeglow districts in Bakool region and Baydhaba district in Bay region. Similar light rains are expected over the Shabelle River catchment within Somalia. Dry conditions are likely over most parts of the following regions: Lower Juba, Middel Juba, Gedo, Lower Shabelle, and Middel Shabelle. Similar conditions are expected over Dinsoor district in Bay region; Rab Dhuure and Waajid districts in Bakool region; Ceel Dheer and Xaradheere districts in Galgaduud region; coastal parts of both Hobyo and Jariiban districts in Mudug region; coastal parts of Eyl district in Nugaal region; Iskushuban, Caluula and Bossaso districts in Bari region; and Zeylac and Lughaye districts in Awdal region. Similar dry conditions are likely over most areas over the Juba River catchment within and outside Somalia.

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, widespread light to moderate rainfall is expected over most parts of central Somalia including Nugaal, Mudug, Galgaduud, Hiraan, Middel Shabelle, Bay and Bakool regions. The north and southmost parts of the country are expected to remain dry. The spatial spread of the forecast rainfall conditions are as follows (Figure 1): Moderate rainfall of between 50.0 and 100.0 mm is forecast over most parts of Galkacyo district in Mudug, central parts of Burtinle district in Nugaal, central parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool and central parts of Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region which forms the middle section of the Shabelle River in Somalia. Rains of similar moderate intensity are also likely over the uppermost catchment of Shabelle River in Ethiopia. Light rainfall of less than 50.0 mm is expected over most other parts of Mudug, Nugaal, Bakool and Hiraan regions. Rains of lighter intensity are also likely over most parts of Galgaduud, Middle Shabelle, and Bay regions, Luuq district in Gedo region, Bu’aale district in Middel Juba region, southern parts of Qardo and Bandarveyla districts in Bari region. Similar light rains are expected over the middle and upper sections of the Juba River catchment and over upper portions of Shabelle River catchment within Somalia. Dry conditions are likely over most parts of Somaliland including Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool and Sanaag regions; most parts of Bari, Lower Juba, Middle Juba, and Lower Shabelle regions. Dry conditions are also likely to prevail over most parts of Garowe district in Nugaal region; Cadaado and Cabudwaaq districts and eastern parts of Ceel Buur district in Galgaduud; Jilib abd Saakow districts in Middle Juba region; Baardheere, Ceel Waaq, Garbahaarey, Belet Xaawo and Dollow districts in Gedo region;and coastal parts of Middle Shabelle including Banadir. Similar dry conditions are likely over most areas over the lower sections of the Juba River catchment within Somalia.

The Shabelle River at Jowhar has risen sharply, reaching 5.40 m, only 10 cm below the bank-full level of 5.50 m. This occurred despite dry conditions over the entire Somali and Ethiopian catchment. No natural overbank flow has been recorded yet, and upstream stations at Belet Weyne and Bulo Burte remain below flood-risk levels. The cause of this isolated sharp rise is still under investigation. Forecasts from NOAA-GFS indicate a westward-moving weather system that is likely to bring very intense rainfall on Monday, 22 September 2025 over Badhaadhe District. Light rains are expected in Kismaayo District (Lower Juba), Awdal Region (Somaliland), Laasqoray District (Sanaag), and northern Bari, with dry conditions elsewhere

FAO-SWALIM has updated the status of the river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers using available Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM). Five types of breakages have been identified; Open, Overflow, Canal Breakage, Canal Intake Flooding and Closed with sandbags. The open breakages are those that are currently open as observed on the latest VHR image available. All the observations reported refers to the latest suitable VHR satellite image available, which is indicated in the online database. A legend/Key for further explanation of the different types of breakages is provided. Along the Juba River, 105 open breakages, 14 canal flooding points, 31 river overflow and 2 points closed with sandbags were identified. While along the the Shabelle River 126 open breakages, 55 canal flooding points, 188 river overflow and 7 places closed with sandbags were identified. Users are advised that the methodology is biased towards Remote Sensing (RS) interpretation with only limited “ground truthing” due to access constraints. Open breakages might have been omitted in some cases where satellite images may not have been very clear (e.g. heavy cloud cover) or were not available.

According to the seasonal Outlook co-produced by FAO SWALIM, World Meteorological Organization (WMO), IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPA)C, and Government of Somalia, Gu 2025 was expected to be characterized by below normal rainfall, normal to delayed onset and above normal temperatures. There was a 45 % likelihood that most parts of the country were to observe below normal rains. There was even a higher likelihood (55 %) of drier conditions being observed over Gedo region, and some parts of Bay, Bakool, Hiraan and Awdal regions. However, there were chances of very isolated above normal rains in some parts of Puntland. There was a very low probability that cumulative Gu rainfall amount would exceed 200mm particularly over the Shabelle River Catchment. However, there were chances of an exceedance of 200 mm over the Juba River Catchment (Middle Juba and Lower Juba).

Forecasts from NOAA GFS indicate a strong surge in southeasterly to easterly winds along the Somali coastline, beginning Friday 23 May and persisting through Sunday 26 May. Wind speeds are expected to exceed 25 knots (12.9 m/s) over coastal waters, with localized intensification to >30 knots (15.4 m/s) especially offshore of Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, and Banadir. Strong onshore winds may also affect Hobyo (Mudug), Eyl (Nugaal), and Bosaso (Bari). These winds may induce coastal waves exceeding 2 metres, particularly along the Indian Ocean coast between Kismayo and Hobyo, creating rough marine conditions.

According to NOAA-NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS), light rains are expected over some parts of Bari, Sool and Sanaag regions and the coastal parts of Lower Juba, Middel Juba, Lower Shabelle and Banadir regions. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over the rest of the country. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Figure 1) are as follows: Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over most parts of Banadir region; Jamaame district, and coastal parts of both Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts in Lower Juba region, Bu’aale and Jilib districts in Middle Juba region; Baraawe ,Marka, Sablaale,Kurtunwarrey, Qoryooley and Afgooye districts in Lower Shabelle region; several parts Jowhar and Balcad districts in Middle Shabelle region; Diinsoor and Buur Hakaba district and southern parts of Baydhaba district in Bay region; northern parts of Qardho district, northern areas of both Bandarbeyla and Iskushuban districts in Bari region; border areas of Ceel Afweyn and Ceerigaabo districts and southern parts of Laasqoray in Sanaag region; north-eastern parts of Burco district and northern parts of Buhoodle district in Togdheer region; most parts of Xudun and Taleex districts, north-eastern parts of Caynabo district and Laas Caanood town in Sool region; and its border areas with Burtinle district in Nugaal region. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over the rest of the country particularly Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Nugaal, Mudug, Galgaduud, Hiraan, Bakool, and Gedo regions. Dry conditions are also likely over most parts of Togdheer region particularly Sheikh and Owdweyne districts, south and north-western parts of Burco district and southern parts of Buuhoodle district; Ceel Afweyn and Ceerigaabo districts and northern parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region; Bossaso, Qandala and Caluula districts, southern parts of Bandarbeyla district and central parts of Iskushuban district in Bari region; northern parts of Caynabo district and eastern parts of Laas Caanood district in Sool region; most parts of Afmadow district and inland areas of both Baadhadhe and Kismayo districts in Lower Juba region; Saakow district in Middle Juba region; most parts of Qansax Dheere district and north-western parts of Baydhaba district in Bay region; Wanla Weyn district in Lower Shabelle region; and several parts of Cadale and Adan Yabaal districts in Middle Shabelle region.

According to the NOAA-NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) forecast, light to moderate rains are expected in some areas in the southern and central inland parts of the country and isolated areas in Somaliland. Dry conditions are anticipated to prevail over most areas in Puntland, Lower Juba region, and central coastal parts of the country. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Figure 1) are as follows: Moderate cumulative rainfall of 50 mm to 100 mm is likely to occur over isolated areas in Bay region particularly eastern parts of Diinsoor district and areas in Baydhaba-Buur Hakaba border; western parts of Rab Dhuure district and southern parts of Ceel Barde district in Bakool region; central parts of Owdweyne district inTogdheer region; and northern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region. Such moderate rains are expected to fall over the upper sections of the Juba River catchment in Ethiopia. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over most parts of Gedo, Middle Juba, Bay, Bakool, Lower Shabelle, Hiraan and Togdheer regions; some parts of Galgaduud region particularly the areas bordering Ceel Buur and Dhuusamareeb districts, and the eastern parts of Cadaado district; most parts of Galdogob district, areas bordering Gaalkacyo and Hobyo districts in Mudug region; parts of Awdal region particularly southern areas of both Borama and Baki districts; most parts of Sanaag region particularly Laasqoray district, eastern areas of Ceel Afweyn District, and western parts of Ceerigaabo district; most parts of Gebiley district and northern areas of Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region; most parts of Xudun district and southern areas of Laas Caanood in Sool region; and northern parts of Qandala district in Bari region. Rains of similar intensity are likely to fall over most areas within the catchments of both Juba and Shabelle River. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over most parts Lower Juba, Middle Shabelle and Nugaal regions; most parts of Galgaduud region particularly Ceel Dheer District and southern parts of Ceel Buur district; several parts of Mudug region particularly Xarardheere, Hobyo and Jariiban districts; most parts of Bari region particularly Bossaso, Qardho, Iskushuban ,Callula and southern areas of Qandala district; most parts of Taleex district and northern parts of Laas Caanood district in Sool region; western parts of Ceel Afweyn district and eastern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region; Woqooyi Galbeed region particularly Berbera and Hargeisa districts; and several parts of Awdal region particularly Zeylac and Lughaye districts.

Light to moderate rains is expected across central and southern regions this week, with intense storms possible in Middle Shabelle and Galgaduud. Dry and hot conditions persist in Puntland and Awdal, raising heat stress and water scarcity concerns. Rainfall prospects remain favorable for most of May.