Contributing to about 60 % of annual rainfall, Gu season is critical for the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) including Somalia. According to IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC), Gu 2025 is predicted to be characterized by below normal rainfall, normal to delayed onset and above normal temperatures. There is a 45 % likelihood that most parts of the country (Zone IV in yellow/orange in Map 4) will observe below normal rains. There is even a higher likelihood (55 %) of drier conditions being observed over Gedo, and some parts of Bay, Bakool, Hiraan and Awdal (dark orange). However, there are chances of very isolated above normal rains in some parts of Puntland. There is very low probability that cumulative Gu rainfall amount will exceed 200mm particularly over the Shabelle River Catchment. However, there are chances of exceedance over the uppermost and lowermost reaches of Juba River Catchment. ICPAC have also reported that the status and predicted evolution of climate drivers in 2024/2025 closely resemble observations made in 2016/2017 and 2020/2021. The characteristics of the Gu 2025 are therefore expected to resemble those observed in 2017 and 2021.

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, light rainfall is expected over isolated areas in Lower Juba and Bay and along the eastern coastal parts of the country with dry conditions likely to prevail elsewhere during the coming week (Map 3). As the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) moves further south, the Northeast monsoon will develop further with strengthened wind conditions particularly at Eyl district in Nugaal region and Bandarbeyla district in Bari region. The light rains along the narrow upper eastern coastal areas are therefore likely to be favoured by the moisture influx associated with these winds. However, the present and forecast forward propagation of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is likely to suppress moisture availability with very low chance of significant rainfall in the next 2 weeks. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 3) are as follows: Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over isolated areas in Lower Juba region and in Dinsoor district in Bay region. Similar rains are likely over a narrow strip along the eastern coastal parts of the country particularly at the following areas: Adan Yabaal district in Middle Shabelle region, Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region, Hobyo district in Mudug region, Eyl district in Nugaal region, and Bandarbeyle and Caluula district in Bari region. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over the rest of the country particularly Gedo, Bakool, Lower Shabelle, Hiraan, Sool, Sanaag, Togdheer, Woqooyi Galbeed and Awdal regions and inland areas of the following regions: Middle Shabelle, Galgaduud, Mudug, Nugaal and Bari.

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS forecasts, only very light rains (<10 mm) are expected over extremely narrow northern coastal parts of Somalia during the coming week (Map 2). Dry conditions will dominate the rest of the country as Somalia remains under a La Niña Watch phase. As the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) moves further south, the Northeast monsoon will develop further with strengthened wind conditions particularly at Eyl district in Nugaal region and Bandarbeyla district in Bari region. The light rains along the narrow northern coastal areas are therefore likely to be favoured by the moisture influx associated with these winds. However, the present and forecast forward propagation of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is likely to suppress moisture availability with very low chance of significant rainfall in the next two (2) weeks.

According to ICPAC WRF forecasts, light rains (of less than 10 mm) are expected over some areas in the north and south with chances of up to 50 mm over some areas in Lower Juba and Middle Juba regions during the coming week. Dry conditions will dominate the rest of the country as Somalia remains under a La Niña Watch phase. As the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) moves further south, the Northeast monsoon will develop further with strengthened wind conditions particularly at Eyl district in Nugaal region and Bandarbeyla district in Bari region. However, the present and forecasted weakening of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is likely to suppress moisture availability with a very low chance of significant rainfall in the next two (2) weeks.

According to NAA-NCEP GFS, rainfall is expected to continue over most parts of Somaliland with a sustained spread of light rains over Hiran, Bay and Bakool regions. The expected eastward and southward distribution of the rains from Somaliland during this time of the season seems to have been hindered by a poorly organized Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Cloudiness in the south, particularly over Lower Juba, Middle Juba and Gedo regions will only translate to light rains. However, there are chances of somehow intense rains in the second week of November. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall are as follows: Heavy cumulative rainfall between 100 mm to 150 mm is expected over southern parts of both Borama and Baki districts in Awdal region, southern half of Gebiley district and southwestern parts of Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Similarly heavy rain is likely over the southern border areas of Hargeisa and Owdweyne district in Togdheer region. The rains in some of these areas is likely to be intense leading up to up to 200 mm by the end of the week. It is important to also note that such intense rains are also likely over some isolated areas within the middle portions of Shabelle River catchment in Ethiopia. Moderate rainfall between 50 and 100 mm is likely over the following most parts of Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region, southern halves of both Baki and Borama districts in Awdal region, Sheikh and western parts of Owdweyne district in Togdheer region, southwestern parts of Baki in Awdal region. Most parts of the northern sections of the middle portions of Shabelle River catchment in Ethiopia are expected to receive such moderate rains. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over vast areas in Togdheer and Bakool regions, northern half of Awdal region, northern ranges areas in Sanaag region, central parts of Sool region, and Galkacyo district in Mudug region. Isolated rains over Hiraan, Bay, Gedo, Middle Juba and Lower Juba regions are also likely to cumulate to less than 50.0 mm at the end of the forecast week. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over vast areas in Bari, Nugaal, Mudug, Galgaduud, Banadir, Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle, , Middle Juba, Lower Juba, and Gedo regions and southern parts of Bay region. It is important to note that except for northern ranges in Sanaag region, the coastal parts of the country are likely to remain dry.

Light rainfall is expected over isolated areas in the southern and along the eastern coastal parts of the country with dry conditions likely to prevail elsewhere during the coming week, according to NOAA-NCEP GFS. While ICPAC’s forecast anticipates moderate rainfall of more than 50 mm over the same areas, the rains in first week of December are likely to be light in intensity with reduced moisture influx because of the forecast forward propagation of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) are as follows: Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over isolated areas in Middle Juba region, Badhaadhe and Afamadow districts in Lower Juba region, Dinsoor and Baydhaba districts in Bay region, Dollow, Luuq and Belet Xaawo districts in Gedo region, Marka district in Lower Shabelle region, and in Xudur district in Bakool region. Rains of similar intensity are likely over the eastern coastal areas including Eyl district in Nugaal region, Bandarbeyla, Iskushuban and Caluula district in Bari region. The coastal cloudiness and rains may stretch all the way to Banadir in the first half of the forecast week. The rains over isolated areas in Middle Shabelle region and Dollow district in Gedo region may intensify to moderate amounts (above 50 mm) by the end of the forecast period. It is important to note that some of the areas likely to receive pockets of light to moderate rainfall fall within the catchments of Juba River. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over most areas in the following regions: Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, Sanaag, Mudug, Galgaduud, Hiraan and Middle Shabelle. Similar dry conditions are also likely to prevail over most inland parts of both Bari and Nugaal regions; and in some areas in Kismaayo district in Lower Juba; Saakow district in Middle Juba; Bardheere, Ceel Waaq and Garbahaarey districts in Gedo region; Sablaale, Baraawe, Kurtunwaarey, Qoryooley, Afgooye and Wanla Weyn districts in Lower Shabelle region; Qansadheere district in Bay region;and Waajid, Rab Dhuure, Ceel Barde and Tayeeglow districts in Bakool region.

Moderate cumulative rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is expected over southern parts of Lower Shabelle region particularly Sablaale and Baraawe districts, and the northern coastal parts of Lower Juba region particularly Jamaame district. In some of these southern coastal parts the rains may cumulate to above 100 mm. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is likely over most of the areas in Bay, Bakool and Banadir regions, Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts in Lower Juba region, Jilib district in Middle Juba region, Afgoye and Wanla Weyne in Lower Shabelle region, Garbaharey and Ceel Waaq districts in Gedo region, Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region, Dhuusamarreeb, Cabudwaaq and Ceel Dheer districts in Galgaduud region. Light rains may also be observed in very isolated areas in the following places: Laas Canood district in Sool region, coastal parts of Mudug region at Hobyo district, elevated areas in the northern parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region, and Bossaso district in Bari region. It is important to point such light rainfall is also expected to fall over most parts of the Juba and Shabelle River catchments within Somali and in Ethiopia. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over vast areas in the north including Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool and Sanaag regions in Somaliland, and Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions in Puntland. Dry conditions are also likely over Middle Shabelle region, Galgadud region particularly in Cadaado and Ceel Buur districts, Bulo Burte and Jalalaqsi districts in Hiraan region, Qoryooley and Kurtunwaarey districts in Lower Shbaelle region, Dollow, Luuq and Baardheere districts in Gedo region, Saakow and Bualle districts in Middle Juba region, and Afmadow district in Lower Juba region.

The levels along Juba River have demonstrated notable variations when compared to the long-term mean (LTM) and last year’s El Niño-influenced behaviour. The level at Dollow is 40 cm above high flood risk level (5.00 m) today (11 November 2024) having rose sharply from 4.08 m on 4 November to 5.40 m today. A similar behaviour is expected at Luuq, where the level today is at moderate flood risk level (5.50 m) having rose sharply from 4.20 m on 4 November to 5.50 m today. This increase is occasioned by moderate cumulative rainfall over its catchment in the Ethiopian highlands and light rainfall within Somalia. Moderate rainfall is expected over the Juba River catchment in the second week of November. However, with the further development of La Niña, these rains may be short-lived. Considering the lag effect of previous rains, the light to moderate rainfall forecast over Juba River catchment in Ethiopian Highlands and within Somalia will generate moderate runoff enough to sustain the high river flows at the upper reaches of Juba River within the coming week. While the high flows will be transmitted downstream to Bardheere, Saakow, Bualle and finally to Jilib in the long run, less intense rains are expected in the second half of November 2024. There is therefore SUSTAINED HIGH RIVER FLOWS at Dollow and MODERATE RIVER FLOWS at Luuq with expected rise at Bardheere in the coming week. Although high river flows do not necessarily translate to riverine flooding, day-by-day rainfall and river level monitoring is advised. Notable fluctuations have also been observed along the Shabelle River in recent weeks compared to the LTM, last year’s conditions influenced by El Niño, and even last week. After a slight drop of the high flows on 29 October 2024, the Shabelle River level at Belet Weyne today (7.00 m) is 50 cm above moderate flood risk level (6.50 m) and only 30 cm below high flood risk level (7.30 cm). This behaviour is driven by the occurrence of wet and dry spells in its catchment within Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. The levels today at Bulo Burte (5.35 m) and Jowhar (4.38 m) are still well below flood risk levels. Moderate rainfall is expected over the Shabelle River catchment in the second week of November. However, with further development of La Niña, the rains may be short-lived. Considering the lag effect of previous rains, the light to moderate rainfall forecast over Shabelle River catchment in Ethiopian Highlands and within Somalia will generate moderate runoff enough to sustain the river flows at the upper reaches of Shabelle River within the coming week. While the high flows will be transmitted downstream to Bulo Burte, Jalalaqsi, Jowhar and finally to Balcad in the long run, less intense rains are expected in the second half of November 2024. There is therefore SUSTAINED MODERATE RIVER FLOWS at Belet Weyne with expected rise at Bulo Burte in the coming week. Although high river flows do not necessarily translate to riverine flooding, day-by-day rainfall and river level monitoring is advised.

The El Nino driven 2023 Deyr rains followed by good 2024 Gu rains, led to replenishment of both surface and ground water sources in Somalia. The spatial variability of the rains however meant different implications on the different aquifers across the country. In Somaliland, the good temporal and spatial distribution of the rains ensured good recharge of ground water sources in most areas. The Karan rains that fall during the normal Hagaa dry period ensured continued replenishment of the ground water sources. South and central Somalia also received average to above average rains in most of the monitored stations. However in Puntland , the below normal rainfall received during this period led to minimal recharge of ground water sources. Between May and September 2024, FAO SWALIM has installed and started the hourly monitoring of 35 boreholes across Somalia. The installation of the hardware is complete, and majority of the stations transmitting data online. There are however few with technical hitches either in the data recording or transmission, and these are being sorted to ensure complete network functionality by end of November 2024. The installed groundwater level monitoring stations provide near real-time data on aquifer fluctuations, enabling efficient and effective management of the water resources. The collected data is analyzed to track changes in aquifer storage, identify areas of potential depletion, and assess the impact of pumping and recharge activities.

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, rainfall for the upcoming week is expected to be moderate in parts of Bay and Lower Shabelle and light over Lower Juba, Gedo, and Middle Juba regions, as well as isolated areas of the Juba and Shabelle River basins. Most of northern Somalia is expected to remain largely dry. The observed rainfall during the previous week is linked to the arrival of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which enhanced moisture influx into southern and central Somalia. However, the weakening of the MJO phase, as indicated by the latest ECMWF forecast, implies less intense rains in the coming weeks. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) are as follows: Moderate cumulative rainfall of 50 mm and above is possible over for south-central parts of the country including the border areas of Dinsoor and Qansax Dheere districts in Bay region and Bardheere district in Gedo region. Similar rains are also likely over Sablaale and Baraawe disctricts in Lower Shabelle region. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is likely over most parts of Lower Juba region, Dinsoor, western parts of Buur Hakaba district and northern parts of Baydhaba district in Bay region; Sablaale, Baraawe, Kurtunwaarey and Marka districts in Lower Shabelle region; Garbahaarey and Ceel Waaq districts in Gedo region; and eastern parts of Ceel Barde district and southern parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool region. Light but very localized rains are possible over central parts of Belet Weyne district and southwestern parts of Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, eastern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region, central parts of Ceel Afweyn district in Sanaag region, and narrow coastal parts of Mudug and Nugaal regions and narrow northern coastal parts of Bari region. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over Middle Shabelle, Galgaduud, Sool, Awdal and Woqqoyi Galbeed regions, non-costal parts of Mudug, Nugaal and Bari regions, and most other parts of Hiraan, Togdheer and Sanaag regions. Dry conditions are also possible over Saakow district in Middle Juba region, western parts of Bardheere district in Gedo region, Rab Dhuure, Waajid and Xudur districts and northern parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool region, southern parts of Baydhaba district and eastern parts of Buur Hakaba district in Bay region, Jalalaqsi district, most other parts of Bulo Burte district and eastern parts Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region.