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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 16 November 2024

According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, rainfall for the upcoming week is expected to be moderate in parts of Bay and Lower Shabelle and light over Lower Juba, Gedo, and Middle Juba regions, as well as isolated areas of the Juba and Shabelle River basins. Most of northern Somalia is expected to remain largely dry. The observed rainfall during the previous week is linked to the arrival of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which enhanced moisture influx into southern and central Somalia. However, the weakening of the MJO phase, as indicated by the latest ECMWF forecast, implies less intense rains in the coming weeks. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) are as follows: Moderate cumulative rainfall of 50 mm and above is possible over for south-central parts of the country including the border areas of Dinsoor and Qansax Dheere districts in Bay region and Bardheere district in Gedo region. Similar rains are also likely over Sablaale and Baraawe disctricts in Lower Shabelle region. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is likely over most parts of Lower Juba region, Dinsoor, western parts of Buur Hakaba district and northern parts of Baydhaba district in Bay region; Sablaale, Baraawe, Kurtunwaarey and Marka districts in Lower Shabelle region; Garbahaarey and Ceel Waaq districts in Gedo region; and eastern parts of Ceel Barde district and southern parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool region. Light but very localized rains are possible over central parts of Belet Weyne district and southwestern parts of Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, eastern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region, central parts of Ceel Afweyn district in Sanaag region, and narrow coastal parts of Mudug and Nugaal regions and narrow northern coastal parts of Bari region. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over Middle Shabelle, Galgaduud, Sool, Awdal and Woqqoyi Galbeed regions, non-costal parts of Mudug, Nugaal and Bari regions, and most other parts of Hiraan, Togdheer and Sanaag regions. Dry conditions are also possible over Saakow district in Middle Juba region, western parts of Bardheere district in Gedo region, Rab Dhuure, Waajid and Xudur districts and northern parts of Tayeeglow district in Bakool region, southern parts of Baydhaba district and eastern parts of Buur Hakaba district in Bay region, Jalalaqsi district, most other parts of Bulo Burte district and eastern parts Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Locally Defined Seasonal Rainfall Characteristics within the Horn of Africa Drylands from Rain Gauge Observations

Seasonal rainfall is critical to lives and livelihoods within the Horn of Africa drylands (HAD), but it is highly variable in space and time. The main HAD rainfall seasons are typically defined as March–May (MAM) and October–December (OND). However, these 3-month periods are only generalized definitions of seasonality across the HAD, and local experience of rainfall may depart from these substantially. Here, we use daily rain gauge data with a duration of at least 10 years from 69 stations across the drylands of Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia to locally delineate key rainfall seasons. By calculating local seasonal rainfall timings, totals, and extremes, we obtain more accurate estimates of the spatial variability in rainfall delivery across the HAD, as well as climatological patterns. Results show high spatial variability in season onset, cessation, and length across the region, indicating that a homogenous classification of rainfall seasons across the HAD (e.g., MAM and OND) is inadequate for representing local rainfall characteristics. Our results show that the “long rains” season is not significantly longer than the “short rains” season over the period of study. This could be related to the previously documented decline of the “long rains” seasonal totals over recent decades. Several rainfall metrics also vary spatially between seasons, and the rainfall on the most extreme days can accumulate to double the local mean seasonal total. The locally defined rainfall seasons better capture the bulk of the rainfall during the season, giving improved characterization of rainfall metrics, consistent with the aim of a better understanding of rainfall impacts on local communities.

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Somalia Seasonal Rainfall Outlook for Deyr 2024 - Issued 01 October 2024

According to ICPAC, the October-November-December forecast indicates a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall driven by La Niña conditions. Additionally, there is a high probability of a delayed onset of rains in the southern and central parts of the country. These challenges are further compounded by above-normal temperatures, which, combined with below-normal rainfall, are expected to lead to a severe loss of soil moisture due to increased evapotranspiration. This will have serious implications for crop and fodder production, particularly in regions reliant on rainfed agriculture and pastoralist activities. Without adequate moisture retention, soil conditions will worsen, directly impacting food and fodder availability for both human and livestock populations. While it is acknowledged that there are inherent uncertainties associated with seasonal forecasting, this uncertainty should not be an excuse for inaction. Instead, the uncertainties must be met with flexibility and preparedness, ensuring that proactive steps are taken to safeguard communities and sectors at risk

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Rainfall Outlook

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 11 October 2024

Based on the seasonal forecast, the onset of Deyr rains is expected over Puntland and southmost parts of the country. According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, moderate rainfall expected over central parts of Somaliland, light rains over isolated areas in Puntland and dry conditions over Central and Southern parts of the Country. The spatial spread of the forecast rainfall conditions are as follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50.0 and 100.0 mm is forecast over northern parts of both Gebiley and Hargeisa districts spreading outwards particularly at the districts’ border areas. Light rainfall of less than 50.0 mm is expected in the rest of the areas in Gebiley district and northern parts of Hargesisa district; Borama district in Awdal region; Sheikh district in Togdheer region; isolated areas in northern Sanaag particularly around Ceerigaabo; southern parts of both Qardho and Bandarbeyla districts in Bari region; isolated areas in Burtinle and Eyl districts in Nugaal region and coastal parts of both Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts in Lower Juba region. There are also chances of light rains in very isolated areas in Sool and Mudug regions and Dhuusamarreeb district in Galgaduud region. Dry conditions are likely over rest of the inland areas of the country including most places over Gedo, Middle Juba, Lower Juba, Bay, Bakool, Middle Shabelle and Hiraan regions. Similar conditions are likely over most parts of the Juba and Shabelle River catchments within Somali and across in Ethiopia.

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Rainfall Forecast

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Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 18 October 2024

Based on the seasonal forecast, the third week of October signals the onset of Deyr rains over much of the country with general southwards spread from Somaliland. According to NOAA-NCEP GFS the previous rains and cloudiness over the north is forecast to spread southwards from Somaliland and parts of Puntland with the southward migration of the ITCZ to the central regions leading up to moderate amounts of about 50 mm. However, this southward spread is expected to weaken thereby leading to only light rains and dry conditions further south particularly over inland areas. The spatial spread of the forecast rainfall conditions are as follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50.0 and 100.0 mm is likely to to spread southwards this coming week to some isolated parts of the following central regions: Galgaduud, Mudug, Hiraan and Bakool. Moderate rains are also likely over some areas in within the Shabelle and Juba River catchments in Ethiopia. Light rainfall of less than 50.0 mm is expected over other areas in the central parts of the country including Galgaduud, Mudug, Hiraan and Bakool regions. Light rains are also likely over vast areas within the Shabelle and Juba River catchments in Ethiopia. The cloudiness over Bakool is likely to spread further leading to light rains over Luuq and Garbahaarey districts in Gedo region and Baidoa district in Bay region. Light coastal rains are likely over Lower Juba and Middle Juba regions. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over with the inland areas in southern regions including over Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle regions, Doolow, Belet Xaawo, Baardheere districts in Gedo region, Qansax Dheere, Dinsoor and Buur Hakaba districts in Bay region.

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Rainfall Forecast

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The National Climate Co-Production, Application, And Action Planning (NCCAAP) Forum - Press Release

10 September 2024, Mogadishu, Somalia – The National Climate Co-Production, Application and Action Planning (NCCAAP), convened a forum on the DEYR 2024 Season. The forum deliberated on the critical climate forecast of below-normal rainfall, a delayed onset of rains, and the impacts of higher-than-normal temperatures in Somalia. The forum brought together climate scientists, decision-makers, and representatives from key sectors, including agriculture, water resources, disaster risk management, and humanitarian organizations, to assess the implications of these projections and plan anticipatory actions to mitigate the forecasted conditions.

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Other

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Shabelle River Level and Flood Risk Update-Issued - 24 August 2024

This flood advisory is applicable to Hirshabelle – Belet Weyne, Bulo Burte, Jalalaqsi, Jowhar, Balcad districts and the surrounding areas. Even with the absence of rains in Somalia and eastern parts of Ethiopia, the continued downflow of water from the upper catchments in central portions of Ethiopian Highlands has led to a sustained rise in the levels along the Shabelle river. Due to the distance of flow, the river system has taken more than a month to respond to the rains observed in the central parts of Ethiopian Highlands. After the river level at Belet Weyne steadily dropped from the bankful level (8.30 m) on 24 May 2024, a slow upward trend began on 11 July 2024. The river level consistently rose thereafter but relatively stable and below the moderate flood risk level in July, and only crossing the moderate flood risk level on 8 August 2024. In the last 48 hours, the river at Belet Weyne has approached its critical zone with today’s level being 10 cm above high flood risk threshold (7.30 m) posing high risk of flooding. This signals a need for close monitoring and potential flood preparedness particularly at vulnerable breakage points. As expected, a similar pattern has been observed downstream at Bulo Burte where the river level began a consistent rise from a low of 2.63 m on 14 July 2024 to 6.52 m today (24 August 2024) which is 2 cm above moderate flood risk level (6.50 m). About the same time (13 July 2024), the level at Jowhar also observed a steady rise which has however been stable in the last week with today’s level being 22 cm below moderate flood risk level (5.00 m). The reported flood episodes at Jowhar and Balcad are therefore occasioned by river breakages and not overbank spillage. Nonetheless, the floods at Balcad are reported to have affected 27 villages with approximately 10,000 people in need of emergency relief in terms of shelter, WASH, health and nutrition support. Considering the lag-effect of the observed rains in central parts of Ethiopian Highlands in the last one month and the light rains to dry conditions forecast over the catchment in both Somalia and Ethiopia, the river levels are expected to rise further but not to bankful levels in the coming week. There is therefore an EMERGING HIGH RIVERINE FLOODING RISK AT BELET WEYNE and MODERATE RIVERINE FLOODING RISK DOWNSTREAM AT BULO BURTE, and low overbank flooding risk downstream at Jalalaqsi, Jowhar and Balcad, but continued episodes of breakage driven flooding at Jowhar and Balcad.

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Flood Alert

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Status of River Breakages Along Juba and Shabelle Rivers - Issued August 2024

The Food and Agriculture Organization’s Somalia Water and Land Information Management (FAO SWALIM) Project, has finalized the analysis and mapping of the river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle rivers using very high resolution satellite imagery. Breakages identified in the map have been classified into five categories; Open, Overflow, Canal Breakage and Canal Intake Flooding and Closed with sandbags. A legend/Key for further explanation of the different types of breakages is provided. A long the Shabelle river, a total of 171 Open points, 2 Canal Breakages, 51 Canal flooding points, 323 Overflow points and 17 points closed with sandbags have been identified while 104 Open points, 1 Canal Breakage, 16 Canal flooding points, 83 Overflow points and 1 point closed with sandbags have been identified. Several other points, which are either potential or temporarily closed with sandbags, have also been identified. There is a need to close the open points and reinforce areas where there are weak river embankments to avoid loss of lives and livelihoods during the upcoming Deyr season.

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Map

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A multi-sensor remote sensing approach to monitor charcoal production sites in Somalia’s forests

Somalia, with almost 2/3 of its land devoted to agriculture and livestock rearing, is facing the negative impacts of uncontrolled deforestation activities. A key driver of such a trend is the extensive and often illicit charcoal production, which leads to forest degradation dynamics and the depletion of the country's woody resources. To monitor and quantify these tendencies, remote sensing offers many advantages in terms of temporal and spatial coverage. Our study aimed to develop a workflow capable of integrating optical (Sentinel-2) and radar (Sentinel-1) imagery to detect charcoal production sites (i.e., kilns) in Somalia. Most of the processing was implemented in Google Earth Engine, enabling it to be fully replicable and easily scalable to other regions. Southern Somalia (Jubbaland State, approx. 110200 km2) was chosen as the test area since charcoal exploitation represents a critical issue in the region. Furthermore, a very detailed dataset, produced by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO-SWALIM) through photo-interpretation of kilns’ presence, was available for the area. Our methodology started by producing a single image containing both optical (NDVI) and radar (VV and VH polarizations) information over the first three months of 2016 and 2017. Subsequently, we calculated the difference between the two images and extracted the pixel values in correspondence with the known charcoal sites. Based on the extracted values, different thresholds (e.g., the mean +/- a set number of standard deviations) were tested for classifying the difference image. The results consisted of binary maps at 10 m resolution, showing locations with kilns’ presence or absence. A confusion matrix was used to evaluate the classifications. Overall accuracy reached almost 70% in some cases, while sensitivity and specificity were more variable (0.4 to 0.9), depending on the utilized threshold. Particularly, some of the classifications proved to be very balanced, with values around 0.7 for all three parameters of accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Our results demonstrate that a multi-sensor remote sensing approach is a valuable and reliable tool to monitor and quantify forest degradation dynamics, particularly considering the socio-political context of some countries, where in situ data collection is often difficult, when not dangerous.

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Rainfall Forecast for SIRA II project Area – Issued 03 June 2024

This week marks the end of the Gu rains across the project area, ushering in the Hagaa season. The forecasted dry conditions may benefit agropastoral activities such as weeding in the Awdal region, which includes Baki and Borama districts. Here, above-normal Hagaa conditions are expected to maintain soil moisture, supporting continued crop and fodder production. However, the anticipated hot and dry air mass over the northern parts of the project area this coming week may lead to severe evapotranspiration, posing significant challenges to agropastoral activities. As we transition into the Hagaa season, it is crucial to implement measures for water conservation and the preservation of existing crops and fodder.

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Rainfall Forecast

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