Juba River Catchment Over the past three days, there has been a notable increase in both the amount and intensity of rainfall in the Gedo region and the Ethiopian highlands. The current water levels along the Juba River are now only 8 cm below bankful level at Dollow, 14 cm at Luuq, and under 40 cm at Bardheere. The ongoing heavy rainfall, coupled with the forecasted moderate rains in the next 24 hours, with an accumulation of approximately 150 mm over the next three days across Gedo, are expected to cause the river level to reach bankful height. This presents a high risk of riverine flooding along the entire stretch of the Juba River. Additionally, there is a high risk of flash flooding in the Gedo region, particularly in the Garbahaarey district within the next 24 hours. Residents in Deeday, Buulo Oomin, Tuutees, and Dhayba should take all necessary precautions to ensure their safety. Necessary anticipatory action should be taken. Shabelle River Catchment There has been a slight increase in water levels along the Shabelle River. The water levels are currently just 8.0 cm, 50.0 cm and 70.0 cm below the moderate flood risk levels at Beletweyne, Bulo Burte and Jowhar, respectively. The runoff from forecast moderate rains within the catchment over the next three days in HirShabelle, is likely to lead to a gradual rise in water levels with moderate risk of flooding along the Shabelle River. There are also reports of high flood wave approaching the Somali-Ethiopia border which is projected to lead to a significant river level rise in 3 to 4 days. Flash Floods Within the next 24 hours, heavy rains are anticipated over most areas of Bakool and Bay regions. As a result, there is a high risk of flash flooding in low-lying and vulnerable areas, particularly in Buur Hakabar, Diinsoor, Qansax Dheere, and Baydhaba districts in Bay, as well as Waajid and Ceel Barde districts in Bakool. Most parts of Middle Juba, including areas around Jilib, are expected to receive rainfall exceeding 100 mm, with coastal areas of Jilib experiencing particularly high amounts of over 200 mm, posing a significant risk of flash floods especially around Jiirta and Kuunyo-Burrow. Similarly, areas along the border of Hobyo and Jariiban districts in Mudug are likely to receive rainfall exceeding 200 mm, potentially leading to flash floods over Xingaras, Dhinooda, Ceel Dhahanaan, and Ceel Bacduur. Residents around the mentioned areas should take precautionary measures to ensure their safety.

Light rainfall of below 50 mm is expected over the coastal parts of Adan Yabaal, Cadale, and Balcad districts in Middle Shabelle region, as well as Banadir, coastal parts of Jilib district in Middle Juba region, Jamame, Kismayo, and Badhaadhe districts, and the border areas between Afmadow and Kismayo districts in Lower Juba region. Similarly light rains are also anticipated over areas bordering Bur Hakaba district in Bay region and Qoryooley district in Lower Shabelle region. Dry conditions are expected to prevail over the rest of the country in the upcoming week. Similar dry conditions are also expected over the Ethiopian Highlands. Temperature Forecast The current forecast indicates the likelihood of high temperatures ranging from 30 ℃ to 35 ℃ over extensive areas in the south, central and northeastern parts of the country. Milder temperatures ranging between 20 ℃ and 25 ℃ are anticipated over some areas in the following regions: Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer and Sanaag regions and inland parts of Bari region. Moderate temperatures of 25℃ to 30 ℃ will prevail over the rest of the country.

Between the 12th and 15th of November 2023, approximately 24,318 buildings, 562 km of roads and 14,697 Hectares of farms in Belet Weyne were flooded, as depicted on the map. The flood extents were identified through a comprehensive analysis, incorporating data from a modified Global Flood Model (GFM) based on Sentinel-1 image of November 14, 2023, visual interpretation of UNOSAT Beletweyne city extent data of November 12, 2023, and Sentinel-2 image of November 15, 2023. This inundation had a notable impact on the region, affecting 54% of buildings, 6% of the main road distance, and 41% of agricultural cropland. The data derived from this analysis offers a detailed overview of the extent and consequences of the flooding, facilitating a more informed understanding of the situation for effective response and mitigation efforts.

In the next one-week, heavy rainfall is expected over the coastal parts of Galmudug; moderate to heavy rainfall is likely over Gedo, parts of Bakool, Hiran, Lower Juba, and Middle Juba regions, and dry conditions with chances of isolated light rainfall in anticipated over Somaliland and Puntland (Map 1). The three -days forecast (Map 1) shows that much of the forecast rains over Mudug region are likely to be received between 8th and 10th November 2023. The spatio-temperal variation of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) is described below: • Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected over several areas in the coastal parts of Galmudug state and in isolated areas in Jilib district in Middle Juba region, Garbaharey and Belet Xaawo districts in Gedo region, and Hudur and Tayeeglow districts in Bakool. The rains over the coastal parts of Galmudug are likely to be intense (more than 150 mm) with the localized storms over Ceel Dheer and Xarardheere districts cumulating to over 200 mm. • Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is forecast over several areas in Gedo region, Ceel Dheer and Ceel Buur districts in Galgadudd region, Xarardheere, Hobyo and Jaribaan districts in Mudug region, Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, and Hudur and Tayeeglow districts in Bakool region. Towards the south, rainfall of similar amount is expected over several areas in Qansax Dheere and Dinsoor districts in Bay region, Jilib and Saakow districts in Middle Juba region, Jamaame district, southern parts of Badhaadhe district, western parts of Afmadow district in Lower Juba region. • Light to rainfall of below 50 mm is expected over several areas in Lower Shabelle and Middle Shabelle regions, Kismaayo district and central and eastern parts of Afmadow districts in Lower Juba region, central parts of Middle Juba region including Bualle district. Similar rains are also likely over Bur Hakaba abd Baydhaba districts in Bay region, Rab Dhuure, Waajid and Ceel Barde districts in Bakool region, BeletWeyne and Jalalaqsi districts in Hiraan region. In the central parts of country, the areas that are expected to receive rains if similar intensities include: Cabudwaaq, Dhuusamareeb and Cadaado districts in Galgaduud region and Galdogob district in Mudug region. • Dry conditions are expected over expansive areas in Somaliland and Puntland, except Gaalkacyo district in Mudug region where isolated light rainfall is expected.

Juba River Moderate to heavy rains received for about two weeks have generated run off that have caused the water levels along the entire Juba River to overflow their riverbanks causing devastating floods which have led to damage to crop lands and road infrastructure rendering them impassable and cutting off access in to and out of towns and other human settlements. Following heavy rains (125.0 mm) recorded yesterday 19th November 2023, the bridge at Luuq has been reportedly overtopped and is at risk of being swept away. The rains over Bardheere have been particularly intense with 108 mm, 35 mm, 96 mm and 58 mm of rain having been observed on 16th, 17th, 19th and 20th November 2023, respectively leading to sweeping away of Budubo bridge. Heavy rains have also been received downstream at Bualle with 71.0 mm being recorded yesterday, 19th November 2023. The light to moderate rainfall forecast over Juba River catchment in Ethiopian Highlands and within the Somalia border in Luuq district of Gedo region will generate runoff of less volume compared to previous week. However, the runoff from the previous moderate to heavy rains and ongoing light to moderate rains will sustain the river overflows and flooding at Dollow and Luuq. Run off from both ongoing and forecast moderate to heavy rains over the Juba River downstream catchment at Bardheere district in Gedo region and parts of Middle Juba region will generate enough runoff leading to increased river overflows and flooding at Bardheere, Saakow, Bualle and Jilib districts. There is therefore SUSTAINED FLOODING along the entire Juba River with INCREASING MAGNITUDE at both Bardheere and downstream at Saakow, Bualle and Jilib. The activated response plans should therefore be sustained along the upper stretch and upscaled downstream at Bardheere, Saakow, Bualle and Jilib. Shabelle River Water levels along the Shabelle River have been steadily increasing in the last three weeks. The river reached bankful level (8.30m) at Belet Weyne on Saturday 11th November 2023. The subsequent riverbank overflow led to massive floods in Belet Weyne town and the surrounding areas leading to damage to buildings, crop lands and rendering the passage into and out of town impassable due to bridge overflows. Based on timely advisories from SWALIM, SoDMA/MoHADM and other partners, the population was safely evacuated to designated higher grounds by the time the floods started. Moderate to heavy rains have been reported along the Shabelle River catchment with 70 mm, 31.8 mm and 29 mm received yesterday, 19th November 2023, at Bulo Burte, Jowhar and Balcad, respectively. The flow of the flood wave downstream coupled with moderate to heavy rains have led to river level rise at Bulo Burte to 32 cm above high flood risk level and only 48 cm below bankful. At Jowhar the level is only 10 cm below moderate risk level and 60 cm to bankful. Even if the flood wave is expected to flow downstream beyond Balcad in the coming days, floods have already been observed as a result of river breakages and flash floods. The light to moderate rainfall forecast over Shabelle River catchment in Ethiopian Highlands and within Hiran region in Somalia will generate runoff of less volume compared to previous week. However, the runoff from the previous moderate to heavy rains and ongoing light to moderate rains will sustain the river overflows and flooding at Belet Weyne and steady river level rise downstream at Bulo Burte, Jalalaqsi, Jowhar and Balcad. There is therefore SUSTAINED FLOODING at Belet Weyne and its environs and HIGH RISK OF FLOODING at Bulo Burte and its environs and PROJECTED HIGH RISK at Jowhar and its environs. The activated response plans should therefore be sustained at Belet Weyne town and the surrounding areas. The evacuation plans should be activated and sustained at Bulo Burte and surrounding areas, while it should be placed on standby at Jowhar and surrounding areas.

Utilizing the flood extent analysis conducted by UNOSAT on November 7th, 2023, it is evident that the onset of El Niño in the Horn of Africa has caused the flooding of 6,494 hectares of land in Luuq District. As per OSM data, this has resulted in the submersion of 316 buildings and 29 kilometers of roads. Additionally, 3,013 hectares of agricultural land, as per SWALIM agrimask, were submerged. This data emphasizes the immediate and significant repercussions of the ongoing El Niño event on the region.

Moderate to heavy rains are expected over Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Gedo, Bakool and Hiraan regions. Given the general light rainfall activity in the next 7-days, much of the rains are likely to be observed between 28th and 31st October 2023. The spatio-temperal variation of the forecast rainfall is described below: Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is forecast over several areas in the central parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region and the northern parts of Owdweyne district in Togdheer region, central parts of Gedo region, Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, and Saakow district in Middle Juba region. Heavy localized rains over these areas are likely to exceed 150 mm with possible cumulative amounts of about 200 mm in Wogooyi Galbeed, northern parts of Owdweyne district in Togdheer region and Bulo Burte in Hiraan region. Very heavy rainfall of above 200 mm is likely over the upper catchments of both Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Ethiopian Highlands. Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is expected over Baki district in Awdal region, southern parts, Sheikh and Berbera districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region, northern parts of Burco district in Togdheer region, Ceel Afwyene and Ceerigaabo districts in Sanaag region, and Bosasso district in Bari region. Moderate rains are also anticipated over several areas in both Gedo and Bakool regions, Saakow district in Middle Juba region, and Bur Hakaba district in Bay region. In the central parts of the country, rainfall of similar amounts is likely over Gaalkacyo in Mudug region, Cabuudwaaq in Galgaduud region, Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region, and Cadale and Balcad districts in middle Shabelle region. Light rainfall of below 50 mm is likely over the rest of the country except for the following areas where dry conditions are expected to prevail: several areas in Bari, Lower Juba and Middle Shabelle regions, southern parts of Bay region, non-coastal parts of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region, non-coastal parts of Xarardheere district in Mudug region, Garowe district and coastal parts of Eyl district in Nugaal region, and Las Anod district. Temperature Forecast: Elevated temperatures between 35°C and 45°C are likely over Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, southern parts of Dinsor and Bur Hakaba districts in Bay region, Jowhar district in Middle Shabelle region, and Sheikh district in Woqooyi Galbeed region. Milder temperatures of between 20°C and 25°C are likely over the highlands in central parts of Sanaag region and northern parts of Bari regions. The rest of the country is expected to observe moderate temperatures between 25°C and 35°C.

Moderate to heavy rainfall of between 50 and 100 mm is anticipated in the northern regions of the country, especially in proximity to Gebiley, Hargeisa, and areas adjacent to the Ethiopian border in Woqooyi Galbeed. Part of Togheer region is expected to experience similar high amount of rainfall especially Sheikh, Odweyn and Buuhoodle districts. In Sanaag region the highest amount of rainfall within the forecast period is expected in Ceel Afweyn and Erigavo districts. Areas around Qardho and Qandala in Bari, as well as Garowe and Burtinle in Nugaal, should anticipate a comparable pattern. Rainfall of comparable amounts is also likely to be observed in many parts of Sool region with chances of heavier storms localized over Xudun, Taleex, and Buuhodle districts. Other parts of the country expected to receive moderate to heavy rainfall include Galkayo and Hobyo in Mudug, Waajid in Bakool, Diinsor in Bay, and Bualle in Middle Juba Region. It is important to point out that rainfall of similarly moderate to heavy amounts is forecast over the Ethiopian highlands. Within Somalia, the heaviest precipitation is projected to occur during the initial three days of the forecast period especially in the northern parts of the country. Light to moderate rainfall is anticipated in Ceel Waaq and Luuq districts in Gedo, Baydhaba in Bay, extensive areas of Bakool, parts of Hiraan particularly Jalalaqsi and Bulo Burti districts, Ceel Buur and Cabudwaaq in Galgaduud, and most parts of western Muduug. The rest of the country is likely to experience scattered light showers throughout the week as per the forecast.

The Food and Agriculture Organization’s Somalia Water and Land Information Management (FAO SWALIM) Project, has finalized the analysis and mapping of the river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle rivers using very high resolution satellite imagery. Breakages identified in the map have been classified into four different categories; Open, Overflow, Canal Flooding Point and Closed with sandbags. A legend/Key for further explanation of the different types of breakages is provided. A total of 170 Open points, 46 Canal flooding points, 152 Overflow points and 29 points closed with sandbags have been identified along the Shabelle River while 26 Open points, 10 Canal flooding points, 16 Overflow points and 14 points closed with sandbags have been identified along the Juba River which require immediate attention. Several other points, which are either potential or temporarily closed with sandbags, have also been identified. The forecast ElNino season is likely to result to enhanced rainfall in Somalia and Ethiopian Highlands with high potential of flooding over the Juba and Shabelle rivers especially where open and potential points have been identified. There is therefore an immediate need to close the open points and reinforce areas where there are weak river embankments. Intervening agencies are advised to take advantage of the current dry period until the rains start and carry out temporary or long term measures to close the river breakages. This will see a reduction of riverine flooding in case of heavy rains and consequently a massive reduction in economic losses to the country.

Juba River: High Risk of Riverine Flooding at Dollow, Luuq, and Bardheere and High Risk of Flash Flooding in Gedo region Shabelle River: High Risk of Flash Flooding in Hiraan, Bay and Bakool Regions and Moderate Risk of Riverine Flooding at Belet Weyne, Bulo Burti and Jowhar Juba River Catchment: Following the moderate to heavy rains, significant fluctuations in water levels have been observed along the Juba River since Wednesday 25th November 2023 when SWALIM issued its weekly bulletin. Today’s (29th October 2023) water levels represent an increase from 3.78 m to 5.46 m at Dollow, an increase from 4.58 m to 6.20 m at Luuq, an increase from 7.10 m to 9.00 m at Bardheere, and a slight decrease 7.40 m to 7.00 m at Bualle. The rains over Bardheere have particularly been heavy with 110.0 mm received on 28th and 86.0 mm received today (29th November 2023) with flash flooding incidences reported. The high flood risk levels have subsequently been surpassed by 46 cm, 20 cm and 80 cm at Dollow, Luuq and Bardheere, respectively. The implication is that the water levels are now just 54 cm, 80 cm and 140 cm below the bankful levels at Dollow, Luuq and Bardheere, respectively. The runoff from the forecast moderate rains over its catchment in the next 24 hours accumulating to about 100 mm in the next three days around the central parts of Gedo region, are likely to sustain the river level rise. The large volume of water upstream is likely to also lead to a rise in the water levels at Bualle to high risk level. There is therefore a high risk of riverine flooding along the entire stretch of Juba River particularly at Dollow, Luuq and Bardheere. There is also a high risk of flash flooding in Gedo region particularly areas bordering Kenya. Shabelle River Catchment:Fluctuations in water levels have also been observed along the Shabelle River. Today’s (29th October 2023) water levels represent an increase from 6.22 m to 6.40 m at Beletweyne, an increase from 5.48 m to 5.76 m at Bulo Burte, and a slight decrease from 4.28 m to 4.20 m at Jowhar. These fluctuations mean that water levels are now just 10 cm, 74 cm and 80 cm below moderate flood risk levels at Beletweyne, Bulo Burte and Jowhar, respectively. Although moderate rains received in Hirshabelle have not been at stations near the main river channel, the runoff from the forecast heavy rains over its catchment in the 24 hours accumulating to over 10 mm in the next three days in some areas in Hiraan, are likely to lead to a sharp rise in the river levels. Similarly heavy rains are likely in some areas in Bakool and Bay region. There is therefore a high risk of flash flooding in low lying and other vulnerable areas in densely populated areas in Hiraan, Bakool and Bay region. There is moderate risk of riverine flooding along the entire stretch of Shabelle River worsening to high risk after three days.

Moderate to heavy rains expected over central and southwestern areas of the country during the coming week. The rains over Gedo and Bakool are likely to be observed in the first part of the forecasting period. The spatiotemporal distribution of the forecast rains is as below. Heavy rainfall of above 100 mm is expected over Bakool, central parts of Gedo, southern parts of Hiraan and isolated areas in northern Galgaduud, localized areas in Galkayo in Mudug and southern parts of Sool. The rainfall over Ceel waaq in Gedo, Tayeeglow in Bakool, western parts of Bulo Burti in Hiraan and western parts of Ceel dheer in Galgaduud is likely to exceed 150 mm. Moderate rainfall of between 50 and 100 mm is expected in Ceel Waaq and Garbahaarey districts in Gedo region, Baydhaba ditricts in Bay, Xudun, Ceel Barde, Tayeeglow districts in Bakool region, western parts of Bulo Burti district, northern parts of BeletWeyne district and western parts Jalalaqsi district in Hiraan. In the central parts of the country, rains of similar amounts are expected over Dhuusamareeb district and southern parts of Cadaado districts in Galgaduud region, Galkayo district, western part of Jariiban district and several isolated areas in Mudug region. Towards the north, comparatively moderate rainfall is also expected over Burtinle district in Nuugal region, southern parts of Qardho district in Bari region, central parts of Taleex districts in Sool region, southern parts of Las Anod, Buuhoodle district in Togheer, Ceel Afweyn town and it’s border areas with Erigavo in Sanaag region. Light rainfall of below 50 mm is anticipated over the rest of the country with the exception of noncoastal areas of Awdal region, Hargeisa and Gebiley districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region, western parts of Bari region particularly over Bosasso district.

Somalia grapples with the looming impacts of an impending El Niño, exacerbating the ongoing climate change challenges. Recurrent riverine and flash floods, particularly in urban centers are of significant concern. Urgent action is needed to prepare for and mitigate the forthcoming El Niño floods, aiming to safeguard lives and mitigate economic losses. Key to this strategy is proactive flood management, involving timely evacuations to higher ground. Identifying suitable elevated areas serves a dual purpose, ensuring safety and facilitating aid delivery. In this regard a rigorous GIS & RS methodology by SWALIM considered nine crucial factors, such as historical flood extent, elevation, slope, topographic wetness index, drainage density, strategic boreholes, settlements, land cover, and roads, to isolate higher grounds suitable for evacuation. The resulting maps show safe areas for evacuation in case of flooding, while exercising discretion considering factors like proximity to schools, healthcare facilities, pest prevalence and any other unforeseen factors

Moderate Risk of Flooding Along Juba River Particularly at Luuq and Bardheere Heavy rains received over Luuq (80.5 mm), and moderate rains (26.2 mm) observed over Dollow on 20th October 2023, coupled with moderate rains across the Ethiopian border have resulted to a sharp rise in river level at Luuq from 3.84 m on 18th to 5.6 m and at Dollow from 4.26 m on 19th to 4.78 m today. Added to previous light rains (14.1 mm) observed on 19th October at Luuq, moderate flood risk levels have been surpassed by 0.22 m and 0.1 m at Dollow and and Luuq, respectively. These localized rains also led to flashfloods affecting IDP camp at Luuq. Moderate rains received over Beletweyne (38.5 mm) on 20th October 2023, and possibly more intense rains over the surrounding areas, coupled with moderate rains across the Ethiopian border have led to a noticeable rise in river level at Beletweyne from 4.95 m on 19th to 5.15 m today (20th October 2023). The rainfall forecast for the next three days indicates moderate to heavy rain (50 – 150 mm) within the Somali-Ethiopia border particularly over upper parts of Gedo region, central parts of Bakool region and many parts of Hiraan region. Although only light rains (4 mm) have been observed at Bardheere today (20th October), the forecast moderate rains in the 24 hours and coming days over upper parts of Gedo region, is likely to lead to further rise in the river levels with moderate risk of flooding along the entire Juba River stretch with the flood wave expected at Bardhere within 2 days. This is therefore an alert to trigger both riverine and flash floods anticipatory actions and to caution communities living along the Juba riverine areas particularly Luuq and Bardheere districts to be vigilant and heed to anticipatory measures as the river levels keep rising. Although the risk of flooding along Shabelle River remains low today, the forecast moderate to heavy rains over Hiraan will lead to increase in river levels. If the heavy rains over Hiraan materialize, it may result in incidences of flash floods today and whose resultant run off and flood wave is expected to flow downstream towards Bulo Burte Burte and Jalalaqsi in the coming days. Additionally, the large volumes of water that was sighted at Limey district in Ethiopia which forms part of the upper catchment of Shabelle river, is likely to lead to a rise in water level at Beletweyne in two to three weeks.

Somalia grapples with the looming impacts of an impending El Niño, exacerbating the ongoing climate change challenges. Recurrent riverine and flash floods, particularly in urban centers are of significant concern. Urgent action is needed to prepare for and mitigate the forthcoming El Niño floods, aiming to safeguard lives and mitigate economic losses. Key to this strategy is proactive flood management, involving timely evacuations to higher ground. Identifying suitable elevated areas serves a dual purpose, ensuring safety and facilitating aid delivery. In this regard a rigorous GIS & RS methodology by SWALIM considered nine crucial factors, such as historical flood extent, elevation, slope, topographic wetness index, drainage density, strategic boreholes, settlements, land cover, and roads, to isolate higher grounds suitable for evacuation. The resulting maps show safe areas for evacuation in case of flooding, while exercising discretion considering factors like proximity to schools, healthcare facilities, pest prevalence and any other unforeseen factors.

Shabelle River In the last 24 hours, heavy rainfall has been received and recorded (21st October 2023) at Beletweyne (88.2 mm), Mataban (40.0 mm), Bulo Burte (51.0 mm), Mahaday Weyne (20.0 mm), Jalalaqsi (87.0 mm), Jowhar (18.0 mm) and Balcad (23.0 mm). Compared to yesterdays’ measurements, the levels have increased by 1.29 m at Beletweyne, and by 0.12 m at Bulo Burte, while it remained stable at Jowhar. These localized rains also led to flash floods in Beletweyne which affected population, assets, and livestock particularly at the bridge near the ex-livestock market and in Hawo Taako and Kooshin villages. The IDPs are reported to have been safely evacuated to Ceel Jaale. Light rainfall is predicted over the Shabelle catchment within the country in the next 24 hours increasing to moderate cumulative amounts in the coming seven (7) days. Although light rain is forecast over the Shabelle river basin in the Ethiopian highlands today, it is expected to increase to between moderate and heavy rains in the coming seven (7) days. The runoff from previous heavy and forecast light localized rains onto and from seasonal wadis within Hiraan region, together with moderate to heavy rains over the river basin in the Ethiopian highlands, will keep the water levels along Shabelle River rising in the coming seven (7) days. This is therefore an alert to trigger both riverine and flash floods anticipatory actions and to caution communities living at vulnerable areas in Hiraan to be vigilant as the flash flood water stagnates over the saturated surfaces in Beletwyne and the water levels along Shabelle River keep rising. Juba River In the last 24 hours, moderate rainfall has been received and recorded (21st October 2023) at Bardheere (15.0 mm) and Luuq (2.5 mm) with dry conditions over Dollow and Bualle. Compared to yesterdays’ measurements, the levels have increased by 0.5 m at Luuq, increased by 1.04 m at Bardheere, decreased by 0.24 m at Dollow and decreased by 0.17 m at Bualle. The flash floods due to previous localized rains at Luuq have subsided as the water run off to the seasonal wadis and into the Juba River. Light rainfall is predicted over the Juba catchment within the country in the next 24 hours increasing to moderate cumulative amounts in the coming seven (7) days. Although light rain is forecast over the Juba River basin in the Ethiopian highlands today, it is expected to increase to between moderate and heavy rains in the coming seven (7) days. The runoff from previous heavy and forecast light localized rains onto and from seasonal wadis within Gedo region, together with moderate to heavy rains over the river basin in the Ethiopian highlands, will keep the water levels along Juba River rising in the coming seven (7) days. This is therefore an alert to trigger both riverine and flash floods anticipatory actions and to caution communities living at vulnerable areas in Gedo particularly at Luuq and Bardheere to be vigilant as the flash flood water stagnates over the saturated surfaces in Luuq and the water levels along Juba River keep rising.

Moderate to heavy rains expected over inland parts of Central and North Eastern regions particularly around parts of Gedo, Bay, Bakool and Hiraan regions in South Somalia, parts of Mudug and Galgaduud regions in central Somalia and parts of Sool, Sanaag and Bari regions in Northern Somalia. Moderate rainfall of between 50 and 100 mm is forecast over eastern parts of Bakool region particularly Tayeeglow; northern parts of Bay region, and several areas in Hiraan region particularly Belet Weyne, Mahas, and Mataban (Map 1). Rainfall of similar amounts is also likely over Jariiban district in Mudug, Xasbahale district in Nugaal, and Laas Caanon, Xudun, and Taleex districts in Sool. The rains are likely to spread outwards and intensify over Bay, Hiraan, Mudug and Nugaal and prevail beyond the forecast period to cumulative amounts above 100 mm. Other places forecast to receive comparable amounts of rainfall include Garadag, Dhahar, and Buran in Sanaag region, Qardho and Dangoroyo in Bari region, Buuhodle, Balidhiig, and Warabeye in Togdheer region. Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is anticipated across several areas in Somalia. These include Burao, Beer, and Xaaji Saalax in Togheer region; Caynabo, Waridaad, and Yagori in Sool region; Erigavo and El Afweyne in Sanaag region; Ufayn, Ballidhig, and Bandar Beyla districts in Bari region; Garowe and Burtinle districts in Nugaal region; extensive parts of Mudug region; inland areas of Galgaduud region, particularly around Dhuusamarreb, Cadaado, and Cabudwaaq districts; Adan Yabaal and Jowhar in Middle Shabelle region; Wanla Weyne district in Lower Shabelle region; areas around Baidoa and Qansahdere in Bay region; areas around Luuq and Bardheere in Gedo region, as well as areas around Jamame, Kismaayo, and Badhaadhe districts in Lower Juba region. Dry conditions are likely over extensive areas in Awdal region, Woqooyi Galbeed region, western and northern parts of Togdheer region, as well as coastal and western parts of Sanaag region. Similar dry conditions are likely over extensive coastal and northwestern areas of Bari region, Galkayo district and the southern coastal parts of Mudug region, coastal parts of Galgaduud region, and coastal parts of both Lower and Middle Shabelle regions. Dry conditions are also anticipated over Banadir region, southern parts of Bay region, northern and western parts of Gedo region, as well as extensive areas of Lower and Middle Juba.

Significant fluctuations in water levels along the Juba River have been observed. The Juba River surpassed the high-risk thresholds by 10 cm at Luuq on 21st October before decreasing below moderate risk level as of today. Downstream at Bardheere Station, the water level rose from 8.00 m on 21st October to 9.00 m and crossing high-risk threshold (8.20 m) on 22nd October before receding back to 8.00 m today. The downstream flow of the flood wave has led to a 1.1 m rise in the water level at Bualle which currently poses no immediate threat of riverine flooding. Moderate to heavy rains (50 – 100 mm) are expected over the catchment of Juba River within Gedo region and near-border areas with Ethiopia between 23rd and 29th October. The rains over the upper catchment in Ethiopian Highlands may exceed 200 mm posing high risk of riverine flooding towards the end of the forecast period. There is a high risk of flash flooding due to potential localized heavy rains over western parts of Bakool, central parts of Gedo, and Saakow district in Middle Juba region. The water levels along the upper part of Shabelle River are on downward trend. On 21st October, the water level at Beletweyne (6.44 m) was only 6 cm below the moderate flood risk threshold. The levels have since dropped to 6.10 m today. The downstream flow of the flood wave has led to an increase in the water level at Bulo Burte from 4.95 m on 21st October to 5.28 m today. The water level at Jowhar station has also risen during the same time from 3.95 m to 4.28 m. These levels, at both stations, are still below riverine flood risk thresholds. Moderate rainfall (31.5 mm) led to flash floods that affected Badda Cas IDP camp interrupting livelihood activities. Moderate rainfall of about 50 mm is expected over Shabelle River catchment within Hiraan region and near-border areas with Ethiopia. Coupled with the heavy rains recorded one week ago, the heavy rains (more than 150 mm) forecast over the Shabelle River upper catchment in Ethiopian Highlands, are likely to pose high risk of riverine flooding at Beletweyne towards the end of October and beginning of November 2023.

Somalia grapples with the looming impacts of an impending El Niño, exacerbating the ongoing climate change challenges. Recurrent riverine and flash floods, particularly in urban centers are of significant concern. Urgent action is needed to prepare for and mitigate the forthcoming El Niño floods, aiming to safeguard lives and mitigate economic losses. Key to this strategy is proactive flood management, involving timely evacuations to higher ground. Identifying suitable elevated areas serves a dual purpose, ensuring safety and facilitating aid delivery. In this regard a rigorous GIS & RS methodology by SWALIM considered nine crucial factors, such as historical flood extent, elevation, slope, topographic wetness index, drainage density, strategic boreholes, settlements, land cover, and roads, to isolate higher grounds suitable for evacuation. The resulting maps show safe areas for evacuation in case of flooding, while exercising discretion considering factors like proximity to schools, healthcare facilities, pest prevalence and any other unforeseen factors

Given the recent evolution of warmer than average Sea- Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, most global climate models have confirmed the presence and persistence of El Niño conditions throughout the October - December 2023 season. Moreover, similar warming of ocean waters near the East African coastline, together with cooling down of the waters near the western Australian coastline, which technically defines a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), is expected to lead to above normal rains over most parts of East Africa. Somalia’s Deyr (October - December) “short rains” season is associated with the somewhat-faster southward movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which dictates much of the country’s climate. According to ICPAC, the climate outlook for the “Deyr Short Rains’’ season indicates an exceptionally high likelihood (85 %) of enhanced rainfall over southern parts of the country encompassing the catchments of both Juba and Shabelle Rivers where up to 10 consecutive rainy days are probable. Upstream of the river catchments across the Ethiopian border, 4 - 6 consecutive rainy days are expected with higher likelihood of cumulative amounts exceeding 150 mm. In terms of associated risks, the enhanced amounts, more so consecutive rainy days, over Juba and Shabelle River catchments within the country and across the Ethiopian border will likely lead to flooding as from the third week of October. However, the forecast dry conditions over the southern parts of Somalia where the two river catchments lie in the month of September offer some lead time for intervention measures to be put in place to mitigate the potential flood risks. The forecast dry conditions over the agricultural zones in the southern parts of the country in the month of September are also opportune for land preparation. The subsequent rains will likely lead to substantial recharge of water sources, replenished water catchment levels, and improved soil moisture conditions. These will create favorable conditions for grass regeneration, offering fodder for the livestock, and timely crop planting across the agro-pastoral livelihoods.

Somalia grapples with the looming impacts of an impending El Niño, exacerbating the ongoing climate change challenges. Recurrent riverine and flash floods, particularly in urban centers like Beletweyne and Jowhar, are of significant concern. Urgent action is needed to prepare for and mitigate the forthcoming El Niño floods, aiming to safeguard lives and mitigate economic losses. Key to this strategy is proactive flood management, involving timely evacuations to higher ground. Identifying suitable elevated areas serves a dual purpose, ensuring safety and facilitating aid delivery. In this regard a rigorous GIS & RS methodology by SWALIM considered nine crucial factors, such as historical flood extent, elevation, slope, topographic wetness index, drainage density, strategic boreholes, settlements, land cover, and roads, to isolate higher grounds suitable for evacuation. The resulting maps show safe areas for evacuation in case of flooding, while exercising discretion considering factors like proximity to schools, healthcare facilities, pest prevalence and any other unforeseen factors.

Rainfall Forecast: There is agreement among several forecast products that light to moderate rains of up to 100 mm is expected over the southwest state and central parts of the country, with some forecasting products anticipating more intense rains. The spatial variation of the consensus-based rainfall forecast is follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50 and 100 mm is expected over isolated areas in Galgaduud, Mudug and Hiraan regions. Specifically, such rains are likely over Ceel Buur district and southern parts of Cabudwaaq district in Galgaduud region, northern parts of Belet Weyne district in Hiran region, and northern parts of Jariiban district in Mudug region. Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is anticipated over Bakool, Hiraan, Galgaduud, Mudug, and Nugal regions. Rains of such intensity are also possible over northern parts of Bay region, southern parts of Bari region, and isolated areas in Sool, Togdheer and Woqqoyi Galbeed regions. Dry conditions are likely in extensive areas in the southern and northern parts of the country. In the north such dry conditions are expected over Awdal region, northeastern parts of Woqooyi Galbeed region, Sanaag and Bari regions. In the south, such dry conditions are likely over Gedo region, coastal parts of Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle, Middle Juba, and Lower Juba regions. However, there are chances of cloudiness leading up to light rains over some of these areas.

Review of the 2023 March-April-May (MAM) seasonal rainfall has demonstrated three key points: First, there was an early transition into the Gu (April-May-June) long rains season in Somalia this year. Secondly, above Long Term Mean (LTM) rainfall was received over Puntland and Somaliland and below LTM over South and Central Somalia. Thirdly, the observed rainfall was more in agreement with the forecast over South and Central Somalia and less over Somaliland. The early onset of the generally above-LTAM MAM rainfall led to substantial recharge of water sources, replenished water catchment levels, improved soil moisture conditions, creating favorable conditions for pasture regeneration, offering first line fodder for the livestock. It also favored land preparation and timely crop and fodder planting across the agro-pastoral livelihoods. However, the exceptionally heavy rains over both Shabelle and Juba River catchments in Ethiopian Highlands and the already-soaked soil conditions over the catchments within Somalia led to excessive overbank spillage resulting to devastating floods at Belet Weyne from 9th May, at Bulo Burti from 25th May and at Jalalaqsi from 26th May 2023. Flash floods occassioned by localised rains also occured in several places within Somalia like Bardheere from 23rd March 2023. The floods led to extensive damage to farmlands with earlier-grown crop and fodder and the grassland plains with devastating implications. Nonetheless, the MAM rains generally led to improved food security situation across the country particularly in the case of Somaliland where the observed rains were above LTM. The wetter than average projected rainfall conditions are likely to at least slow the loss of soil moisture and support agricultural and livestock productivity over South and Central Somalia over which below LTM Gu rains were observed. This bulletin presents both qualitative and quantitative review of the temporal and spatial variation of observed-, and verification of the forecast Gu rainfall season.

Light rainfall is predicted over the southern regions and some isolated areas in the north with dry conditions expected over most parts of Somalia during the forecast period. The spatial patterns of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is expected in the southern regions including: the eastern and coastal parts of both Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts, eastern and southern parts of Afmadow district, and the entire Jamaame district in Lower Juba region; Jilib district and Buáale district in the Middle Juba region; Diinsoor district and northern border areas of Buur Hakaba and Baydhaba districts in Bay region; Sablaale district and the entire coastal parts of Lower Shabelle region, and areas around Mogadishu in Banadir region. In the northern part of the country, similarly light rains are likely over southern parts of both Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed, the northern parts of both Ceerigaabo and Laasqoray districts over Sanaag region and areas bordering the three districts of Qandala, Iskushuban and Caluula in Bari region. Localized light rains in other parts of the country are as shown in the map. Dry conditions are expected over the rest of the country especially the entire Awdal region, many parts of Gedo, Bakool, Hiraan, Galgaduud, Mudug, Nugaal, Sool and Bari regions, northern Woqooyi Galbeed region and southern parts of Sanaag region.

Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is expected the southern regions including: Middle Juba region, the eastern and coastal parts of Lower Juba region, coastal parts of Lower Shabelle and Middle Shabelle regions, south and central parts of Bay region, some areas in eastern parts of Gedo region, and coastal parts of Galgaduud region and Ceel Dheer district in Mudug region. In the northern part of the country, similarly light rains are likely over southern parts of both Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed, the northern parts of both Ceerigaabo and Laasqoray districts over Sanaag region and areas bordering Iskushuban and Caluula distrcits in Bari region. Dry conditions are expected over the rest of the country..

Moderate rainfall expected over southern coastal regions with light rains predicted over most other parts of Somalia during the forecast period (Map 1). The spatial distribution of the cumulative rainfall amounts is as follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50 and 100 mm is expected over the areas next to the coastline in the southern part of the country. These areas include the eastern and coastal parts of both Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts, eastern and southern parts of Afmadow district, and the entire Jamaame district in Lower Juba region. Similarly, moderate rains are also likely over Jilib district and the isolated areas in the southern part of Buále district in the Middle Juba region and over several areas in southern and western parts of both Sablaale and Baraawe districts in Lower Shabelle region. Some isolated areas in the north particularly over Eerigavo in Sanaag region are also likely to receive moderate rains. Light rainfall of less than 50 mm is expected over several areas in Afmadow district and the western parts of Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts in Lower Juba region; Saakow district and northern parts of Buáale district in Middle Juba region; and southern and eastern parts of Baardheere district in Gedo region. Similar rains are likely over Qoryoley, Kurtunwaarey, Marka, Afgooye and Wanla Weyne districts in Lower Shabelle region; several areas in Middle Shabelle and Bay regions; non-coastal areas of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region; and non-coastal areas of both Xaradheere district and southern Hobyo district in Mudug region. In the northern parts of the country, such light rains are likely over southern and central parts of Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed; several isolated areas in Togdheer region; Xudun and Caynabo districts in Sool region; central border areas of Ceel Afweyne and Ceerigaabo districts, northern parts of both Ceerigaabo and Laasqoray districts in Sanaag region, areas in southern Bossaso district and northeastern parts of Iskushuban district in Bari region. Similarly lighter rains are also likely over the border areas between Garowe and Eyl districts in Nugaal region. Light rains of less than 50 mm are expected over several areas in Afmadow district and the western parts of Badhaadhe and Kismaayo districts in Lower Juba region; Saakow district and northern parts of Buáale district in Middle Juba region; and southern and eastern parts of Baardheere district in Gedo region. Similar rains are likely over Qoryoley, Kurtunwaarey, Marka, Afgooye and Wanla Weyne districts in Lower Shabelle region; several areas in Middle Shabelle and Bay regions; non-coastal areas of Ceel Dheer district in Galgaduud region; and non-coastal areas of both Xaradheere district and southern Hobyo district in Mudug region. In the northern parts of the country, such light rains are likely over southern and central parts of Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed; several isolated areas in Togdheer region; Xudun and Caynabo districts in Sool region; central border areas of Ceel Afweyne and Ceerigaabo districts, northern parts of both Ceerigaabo and Laasqoray districts in Sanaag region, areas in southern Bossaso district and northeastern parts of Iskushuban district in Bari region. Similarly lighter rains are also likely over the border areas between Garowe and Eyl districts in Nugaal region. Dry conditions are expected over the entire Awdal region and several areas in Gedo, Bakool, Hiraan, Galgaduud, Mudug, Nugaal and Bari regions. In the northern parts of the country, such dry conditions are likely over Berbera district and the northern parts of both Gebiley and Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed; northern parts of Ceel Afweyne district, northwestern, southern and eastern parts of Ceerigaabo district and central and southern parts of Laasqoray district in Sanaag region; Caluula, Qandala, Qardho, and Bandarbeyla districts and southern parts of Iskushuban district and northern parts of Bossaso district in Bari region.