The last one week has been characterized by heavy rains in many parts of Somaliland and Puntland. As a result of the heavy rains Qardho experienced severe floods on 23rd October that led to destruction of infrastructure and property. Las Anod recorded a total of 104.0 mm in one day; while in the same week Caynabo received 91.0mm, Elafweyn 77.5mm, Dhahar 71.0mm, Eyl 74.0mm, Salaxley 63.5mm, Balidhiig 61mm, Las Dacawo 57mm, Talleh 48mm, Galkayo 48.0mm, Xasbahale 42.0mm, Burtinle 39.0mm, Dhubbato 38.0mm and Sheikh 36.0mm. Moderate rains were recorded in few stations in the central and southern regions, including Wanle Wayne 18.8mm and Mahas 15.5mm. Large parts of this region recorded light or no rains over the past one week. More rains with good intensity and distribution are required across the country to bring to an end the current drought conditions. The rains need to be sustained for long period, and more spatially distributed to sustain pasture and crop growth. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates heavy rains in Togdheer, Sool, Hiraan, Bakool and Galgaduud regions. Moderate rains are expected in the rest of the country save for the coastal areas of Bari region, and parts of Awdal region that may receive little or no rains. Middle and Lower Juba areas near the Kenyan border will also receive light rains, same with the coastal areas of Lower Shabelle region. The Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive heavy rains. Shabelle river level is currently high and given the rainfall forecast in the Ethiopian highlands, flooding may occur in sections with weak or open embankments. The risk is minimal along Juba river, as current levels are below average for this period.

Many parts of Awdal and the western areas of Woqooyi Galbeed in Somaliland continued to receive moderate to heavy rains over the last two weeks. Some stations that recorded good rains over that period include Taysa 95mm, Borama 75.5 mm, Gebilley 63mm, Aburin 59.5mm, Hargeisa 59mm and Magalo–Cad 48mm. The Karan rains in this region have so far been good, and if sustained would provide relief to the current drought conditions. Other parts of Somaliland remained dry. In Puntland dry conditions prevailed except for light scattered showers in Iskushuban, Baran and Buuhodle districts. In the central and southern regions scattered light to moderate rains were recorded in Dinsoor 49mm, Baidoa 32.5mm and Mogadishu 41.3mm. The rest of the region continued to experience hot and dry conditions, worsening the existing drought conditions.

Over the last two weeks, light to moderate rains have been reported in parts of Somalia, marking the onset of Deyr season. However, many parts of the country remain hot and dry. The western parts of Somaliland continued to receive good rains over the last two weeks. Some stations that recorded good rains over this period include Amoud 162mm, Qulujeed 100mm, Aburin 84mm, Sheikh 81mm and Magalo-Cad 68mm. Bari and Nugaal Regions of Puntland also received scattered rains, with Baran station recording the highest amount of 132mm over the past two weeks. Few areas in the central and southern regions of Somalia received light rains. The rains received so far are however of minimal impact, and the country continues to experience severe drought conditions. The rains are expected to spread in time and space during the coming weeks. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates scattered light rains across the country. Few pockets of moderate rains are expected in Togdheere, Sool and Sanaag Regions. Galgadud, Bakool and Lower Juba will also receive moderate rains in few places. The Ethiopian highlands where Juba and Shabelle rivers originate will have moderate to high rains during the forecast period. River levels along Shabelle and Juba, and which have been rising since beginning of September have slightly dropped over the last one week. The levels are currently within the short term mean for this period.

Drought conditions improved slightly in the southern coastal areas and Awdal region in July following moderate Karan rains. Although the rains were not well distributed, they improved the vegetation conditions, which may be short-lived due to an influx of livestock into these areas. The other areas were dominated by dry and hot weather conditions, worsening drought severity in many parts of Somalia, leaving 90% of the country under extreme drought conditions. The groundwater levels across the country are going down, at alarming rates in some regions, from over pumping due to increased pressure to meet demand. Water trucking for domestic and animal use has been intensified. The Juba and Shabelle River levels are below the short-term average, with little water available to support irrigation of crops and other uses.

Four consecutive poor rainy seasons in most parts of the Horn of Africa region have resulted to current serious hydrological drought conditions in Somalia and neighboring countries.. Juba and Shabelle Rivers, with the headwaters in the Ethiopian highlands have remained below the long term average since the beginning of 2022, negatively impacting agriculture production, domestic and livestock water use for the riverine communities. The low river levels however provide an opportunity to fix the river breakages and weak embankments, ahead of the next rainy season. SWALIM has updated the status of the river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers using available Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM). Five types of breakages have been identified, namely; open, overflow, potential overflows, potential breakages and closed with sandbags. The open breakages are those that are currently open as observed on the latest VHR image available. All the observations reported refers to the latest suitable VHR satellite image available, which is indicated in the online database. 100 Open breakage points have been identified, 70 on the Shabelle River and 30 on the Juba River which require immediate action. 13 Overflows were also identified during this season. Jowhar district was worst affected along the Shabelle while Bu’aale and Jilib districts are worst affected along the Juba. Users are advised that the methodology is biased towards Remote Sensing (RS) interpretation with only limited “ground truthing” due to access constraints. Open breakages might have been omitted in some cases where satellite images may not have been very clear (e.g. heavy cloud cover) or were not available.

Over the last week, Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Bay, Lower Juba, Middle Shabelle and Lower Shebelle Regions continued to receive light Karan rains. Some of the stations that recorded rains include Borama 7.5 mm, Dilla 5 mm, Bottor 17 mm, Wajaale 18 mm, Aburin 7 mm and Gebiley 6 mm in Somaliland; and in the Southern Regions Wanle Wayne 46 mm, Mogadishu 28 mm and Jowhar 35 mm. The last two days have, however, seen a reduction in recorded rainfall amounts across the regions that have been experiencing the Karan rains recently. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the coming week calls for a reduction of the Karan rains with light showers expected in Wooqoyi Galbeed, Togdheer and Awdal regions of Somaliland and the coastal areas of the Middle and Lower Shabelle regions. Light showers are also likely in the Sanaag region during the same period.

The last one week has seen a reduction in recorded rainfall amounts compared to previous weeks since the onset of the Karan rains. Most parts of the country remained dry for that period. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate rainfall in Awdal and the western side of Woqooyi Galbeed region; while in eastern Woqooyi Galbeed and parts of Togdheer Regions light rains are foreseen. Light rains are also foreseen along the coastal strip in the southern regions. The rest of the country will remain dry for the coming week. Moderate to high rains are expected in the Ethiopian highlands, where Juba and Shabelle Rivers originate. Despite the rains received in parts of the country, drought conditions persist across Somalia. The rains need to be well distributed and sustained over long period, to alleviate the current drought situation. The ongoing rains in Ethiopian highlands have led to a slight increase in river levels inside Somalia, and consequently restoring the river flow in the lower reaches of Shabelle which has been constantly reducing since May. River levels are however still below normal at this time of the year.

The last one week has seen a reduction in recorded rainfall amounts compared to previous weeks since the onset of the Karan rains. Most parts of the country remained dry for that period. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate rainfall in Awdal and the western side of Woqooyi Galbeed; while in eastern Woqooyi Galbeed and parts of Togdheer Regions light rains are foreseen. Light rains are also foreseen along the coastal strip in the southern regions. The rest of the country will remain dry for the coming week. Moderate to high rains are expected in the Ethiopian highlands, where Juba and Shabelle Rivers originate. Despite the rains received in parts of the country, drought conditions persist due across Somalia. The rains need to be well distributed and sustained over a long period, to alleviate the current drought situation.

Over the last week, parts of Somaliland and the Southern regions recorded light rains. Specifically, some of the stations which recorded notable amounts of rain include; Jowhar 34 mm, Baidoa 24 mm, Kismayo 19 mm, all in the South; while in Somaliland, Wajaale received 17 mm, Gebilley 13 mm, Baki 10 mm and Borama 8 mm within the same period.  The rainfall forecast for the coming week indicates light to moderate rains in parts of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed and Togdheer Regions. The coastal areas of Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba regions will also receive light rains. The uppermost parts of the Ethiopian highlands will record moderate rains, which may lead to a slight increase in river levels within Somalia in the coming week. The rest of the country will remain dry, which is normal at this time.  Current drought conditions, however, continue to persist across the country, even in areas where it has rained, as the amounts received are localized and inadequate to alleviate the condition.  River levels along the Shabelle and Juba are below the average for this period of the year. 

The western parts of Somaliland (Wajaale and Gebilley) and southern coastal regions, including Mogadishu, Kismayo, and Jamame, continued to receive light Karan lights over the last week. The rest of the country remained dry, which is expected at this time of the year. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the coming week calls for light to moderate rains in Wooqoyi Galbeed and Awdal in Somaliland and the coastal areas of the Shabelle and Juba regions. Light showers are also expected in the inland areas of the Bay region during the same period. The Ethiopian highlands, whose rainfall is mainly responsible for the river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia, will receive light to moderate rains in the coming week.

The 2022 Gu rainy season in Somalia came to an early end in May, with depressed rainfall amounts recorded and forecasts indicating little to no rainfall through mid-June . The overall seasonal rainfall performance was poor. The northern areas recorded 30% to 60% of the average rainfall while the central and southern areas received 45 % to 75%. This marks a fourth consecutive failed rainy season since late 2020. Gu season rainfall has moderated drought conditions in most parts of the country as it replenished pasture and water resources. However, this improvement is expected to be short-lived as and drought conditions are expected to worsen throughout the prolonged dry Hagaa (July-September) dry season. Current climate forecasts indicate a 62 per cent chance of La Niña  during the June to August 2022 period (IRI). La Niña is generally associated with drought conditions in the Horn of Africa region, including Somalia. The next seasonal rains are not expected until mid-October and available long-range forecasts indicate that a record fifth below-average rainy season is likely across Somalia during the forthcoming October and December 2022 Deyr season. This could set the conditions for a worsening multi-season drought well into 2023. More than 80 per cent of Somalia is currently facing severe to extreme drought conditions. The drought severity levels are comparable to that of 2010/11 and 2016/17 as seen in Annex I. Water resources are expected to decline drastically during the forthcoming dry season as water demand and use increases. In Garowe, there was abnormal drop in ground water level of seven meters between October 2021 and May 2022 (Annex II). The Juba and Shabelle River levels are currently 30 percent below the short-term average, with limited water available to support irrigation of crops and other uses. The river levels are expected to decrease further in the coming weeks and months. The vegetation conditions that had improved in some areas as a results of the Gu season rains are expected to be depleted soon due to the low level of biomass recovery and likely influx of livestock into these areas. The Prospects for Gu season cereal production remain bleak, with crop failure expected in many areas . Due to the poor rains, some communities did not plant during this season. Dry and hot conditions will continue across most parts of the country during this dry Haggai (June/July-September ) season except for parts of Somaliland that will receive moderate Karan rains. With no significant rains foreseen until the next rainy season in October, and the La Nina predictions, the current drought situation will deteriorate further in Somalia. The negative trends are not expected to reverse until the arrival of Deyr (Oct-Dec) 2022 rains. However, the preliminary forecast for the Deyr 2022 season is also below average—FEWSNET

The period from June to September is generally dry in Somalia. However, Somaliland especially the western parts received localized rains during this period, known as Karan rains. Along the coastal areas of the southern regions scattered rains were also experienced during this period. Over the last one week rains were observed in parts of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Bay, Lower Juba, Middle Shabelle and Lower Shebelle Regions. The rains have been mainly light and lacking spatial distribution, apart from few areas where moderate rains were recorded and surface water sources recharged. Some of the stations where moderate rains were received over the last one week include Kismayo 26.6mm, Baidoa 20.9mm, Jowhar 18mm, Buaale 14mm, and Qansax Dheere 14.5mm in the south; while in Somaliland Wajaale station recorded 40mm, Gebiley 29mm, Amoud 25mm, Baligubadle 20mm and Borama 14.5mm within the same period. Current drought conditions however continue to prevail across the country, even in areas where it has rained, as the amounts received are localized and inadequate to alleviate the condition. The rains need to be sustained for long period, and more spatially distributed to sustain pasture and crop growth. The rainfall forecast for the coming week indicate light to moderate rains in parts of Awdal, Woqooyi Galdeed and Togdheer Regions. Bay Region and the coastal areas of Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba are also expected to receive light to moderate rains in the next one week.

The last two weeks have seen a significant reduction of rainfall across Somalia marking a possible early end of the Gu 2022 rainfall season. There is cause for concern as observed rainfall records indicate that some parts in the central regions of Galmudug as well as Bari and Nugaal regions in Puntland received minimal rains since the start of the season. Cumulatively, the rainfall amounts recorded so far are below average with a typical poor distribution in space and time. This marks the fourth consecutive failed rainy season in Somalia, a situation that has not been witnessed in the recent history. According to current climate model (https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/), indicate there is 62 per cent (62%) chance of the La Nina phenomena during the June to August 2022 period. The phenomena is largely associated with drier than normal periods in the country. With no significant rains foreseen as the season comes to an end and the La Nina predictions, the existing drought situation will deteriorate further in Somalia. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days is calling for a further reduction of the seasonal rains with light rains expected in pockets of a few regions. In the same period moderate to low rains are expected in the upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands. River levels along the Juba and Shabelle reduced over the last one week, and the trend is expected to continue in the coming week, given the rainfall forecast.  

In the last one week many parts of Somalia recorded moderate rains. In Somaliland, stations like Amoud, Borama, Yagori, Waridaad and Malawle recorded significant rains of above 70 mm. In the South, many stations including Bur Hakabar, Balcad, Bardheere and Buale recorded rainfall between 15mm to 25mm. The last 24 hours saw heavy rains in parts of Puntland in Bari region and areas around Las Canood. This has led to flash floods subsequently causing damage in different sectors. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the coming week indicates moderate to heavy rains in parts of the central and southern regions of the country especially in Galgaduud, Hiraan and Lower Juba, while light to moderate rainfall of below 30 mm is expected within the Ethiopian highlands. Most parts of Somaliland and Puntland are expected to receive little or no rains in the coming one week. Given the rainfall forecast, flash flooding may occur in the southern areas of Galgaduud region and along the coastal areas of Lower Juba between 04 and 05 May 2022, . While the rains experienced since the start of the Gu season have reduced water stress in many areas, it is worth noting that, the foreseen rains in the coming week are not yet sufficient to alleviate the current drought conditions in the country, and more rains with good temporal and spatial distribution are required during the season in order to improve the situation. Besides, the cumulative rainfall forecast for the month of May 2022 is expected to be below normal in most parts of the country according to ICPAC.    With the rains experienced during the last week in the country and the Ethiopian highlands, river levels along the Juba and Shabelle increased sharply over the last few days and will continue increasing during the week in focus with no risk of flooding.

In the last two weeks there has been a significant reduction of rainfall across Somalia except for a few places along the southern coast. Generally, the seasonal rains have been low in parts of the country, while in other parts localized heavy storms were experienced within a few days, resulting to flash floods such as Las Anod in Sool Region, Ceerigabo in Sanaag, and Jedaal/Ufeyn in Bari Region. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days shows light rains along the coastal areas of Lower Juba. Scattered light rains are also expected in parts of the central and southern regions. Most parts of Somaliland and Puntland will remain dry within the coming week. In the Ethiopian highland where Juba and Shabelle Rivers originate light rains are expected within the same period. It is worth noting that the Gu 2022 rainy season started late in Somalia, and the rainfall amounts recorded so far are below normal in many parts of the country, with poor temporal and spatial distribution. More rains are required to alleviate the current drought conditions. With no significant rains foreseen as the season comes to an end, the existing drought situation may deteriorate further in all the water dependent sectors. River levels along the Juba and Shabelle reduced over the last one week, and the trend is expected to continue in the coming week, given the rainfall forecast.

The Gu rains which started in the second half of March 2022 in parts of Somalia were followed by a prolonged dry period of more than 15 days making the rains ineffective. The prolonged dry period led to a significant water deficit further deteriorating the drought conditions. The last two days have seen scattered light rains in a few places in the southern parts of the country while the northern parts remained dry. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the coming week indicates light to moderate rains in the southern and central regions as well as within the Ethiopian highlands. Light rains are foreseen in pockets of the northern regions during the forecast period It is worth noting that, the foreseen rains in the coming week are not sufficient to alleviate the current drought conditions in the country, more rains with good temporal and spatial distribution are required during the season in order to improve the situation.    River levels along the Juba and Shabelle are still within the historical minimum and are expected to start increasing at the end of the April given the rainfall forecast.

After a prolonged dry period of three weeks since the start of the Gu rains, parts of the southern regions in Somalia recorded light to moderate rains in the last few days. The central and northern parts of the country however remained dry. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the coming week indicates moderate to heavy rains in the southern regions as well as within the Ethiopian highlands. In the north, light rains are foreseen in pockets Sanaag while moderate rains are expected in Woqooyi Galbeed and Toghdeer regions. The central and Puntland areas will remain dry during the forecast period. It is worth noting that, the foreseen rains in the coming week are not yet sufficient to alleviate the current drought conditions in the country, and more rains with good temporal and spatial distribution are required during the season in order to improve the situation.    River levels along the Juba and Shabelle started to increase over the last few days and are expected to continue with the increasing trend during the week in focus.

In the last one week the southern regions as well as parts of Somaliland recorded moderate rains while the central and larger parts of Puntland remained dry. In Somaliland, Awdal and Wooqoyi Galbeed regions recorded significant rains between 24 and 26 April with some areas receiving over 50mm of rainfall. Likewise, Gedo region in Dollow district recorded heavy rains on 25 April. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the coming week indicates moderate to heavy rains in most parts of the country as well as within the Ethiopian highlands. Specifically, heavy rains are expected towards the end of the week in focus around 2nd and 3rd of May in pockets of Wooqoyi Galbeed, Sanaag, Togdheer, Lower Shabelle and Bay regions. While the rains will lead to immediate relief of water stress in many areas, it is worth noting that, the foreseen rains in the coming week are not yet sufficient to alleviate the current drought conditions in the country, and more rains with good temporal and spatial distribution are required during the season in order to improve the situation.    River levels along the Juba and Shabelle are expected to continue increasing during the week in focus with no risk of flooding.

Many parts of the country remained generally dry throughout the month of February 2022 leading to persistence of drought conditions. Pasture and water are in extremely poor conditions and close to a complete depletion in key pastoral livelihoods across Somalia. Severe water crises has resulted to increased water trucking and prices, which pastoral and agro pastoral households meet through increased debt accumulation and/or livestock sales. Current drought conditions are expected to worsen until the start of Gu season rainfall in April. The high demand for water is overstretching the few functional permanent water sources in the country. Preliminary results from the ongoing SWALIM water sources survey across the country indicate 15 to 24 pumping hours per day for many boreholes. Body condition of small ruminants and cattle has deteriorated to poor and very poor conditions, leading to death of offspring (calves, kids, lambs) as well as lactating animals due to prolonged drought conditions. Livestock migration options remain limited due to exhausted rangelands and weak body conditions. Current river levels along the Juba and Shabelle rivers are currently below their historical minimum, with dry riverbeds observed in many sections of the two rivers. This conditions will get worse until the start of Gu season rainfall in April.

In the last 24 hours, a few places in Somalia received light to moderate rains marking a possible start of the Gu rain season. Galdogob and Galckaayo in the central areas recorded 37 mm and 14 mm respectively. Field reports also indicate that there was moderate rains in parts of Bay and Bakool regions during the same period. It is worth noting that, the foreseen rains in the coming week are not sufficient to alleviate the current drought conditions in the country, more rains with good temporal and spatial distribution are required during the season in order to improve the situation. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the coming week indicates a continuous spread of rains in the southern and central regions. No rains are foreseen in the northern regions during the forecast period. In the Ethiopian highland, whose rainfall is largely responsible for increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia, light to moderate rainfall is foreseen in the coming week. River levels along the Juba and Shabelle are still within the historical minimum and are expected to start increasing in April given the rainfall forecast.

The latest rainfall forecast from ICPAC is now indicating that below normal rains are expected in the country during April. Forecasts from other sources also show higher chances of below normal rains in Southern Somalia and normal rains in the rest of the country for the period April through June. Given forecast La Nina conditions which are expected to persist in April, ongoing drought in Somalia will worsen in April and possibly continue at least through mid-2022. Worst affected areas will be central and southern parts of the country. SWALIM’s drought monitoring based on field reports and the Combined Drought Index indicates that, currently, about 80% of the country is facing extreme drought conditions. This has continued to cause loss of livestock and human suffering. Water shortage is widespread. Water and food prices remain high and continue to rise in many areas. Preliminary results from an ongoing survey of boreholes in Puntland indicates that water trucking is on the rise with some boreholes serving more than 15 trucks per day. This has in turn led to extended pumping hours where over 60% of them are operating for more than 12 hours in a day. There has been a wide disruption of normal activities in some areas where children have stopped going to school. The lack of water and pasture for livestock has impacted negatively to the animal conditions with livestock deaths increasing in many areas and an increasing proportion of the surviving ones being in very weak conditions. Juba and Shabelle river levels continued to decrease during the month of March. The graphs in Figure 2 & 3 show comparison of 2021/22 and the short term mean (2002 to 2022) for Shabelle and Juba river levels at Belet Weyne and Luuq stations, respectively. Current river levels are lower than the short term mean for both stations. Irrigated agriculture in the lower reaches of the two rivers have been seriously hampered by the low river levels . At Luuq along the Juba river in Gedo region, the unprecedented low river levels has exposed the dry river bed. According to the revised March to May 2022 seasonal forecast issued by IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Center (ICPAC) on 28 March 2022, there is a greater likelihood of below average rainfall in April 2022 in the southern pars of Somalia as well as the adjacent Ethiopian highlands as shown on Map 2. High temperatures are expected during the same month of April. High temperatures will lead to increased evaporation and increased demand for water among livestock, leading to worsening drought conditions. Following the failure of three consecutive rainy seasons since October 2020, and forecast below average 2022 Gu season rainfall, the cumulative effect will likely lead to extended and worsening drought conditions in Somalia. The seasonal rains started in the last week of March in some southern and a few places in the north, briefing a temporary relief to these areas. Drought condition will likely persist and could even worsen unless the rains continue in the coming weeks and months. While current forecasts indicate a likely below average March to May 2022 Gu season rainfall, flash floods or extended dry periods may occur in some areas. SWALIM will keep updating this forecast for shorter lead time and will share with you through regular bulletins throughout the rainfall season.

Three consecutive poor rainy seasons within the Juba and Shabelle River basins inside Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands have led to the current serious hydrological drought along the two rivers. The river levels in the upper sections are currently at their historical minimum, while the mid and lower sections of the Shabelle River having run dry. With no rains expected in February and most of March, the river flow will continue to decline. The reduced river flow along the two rivers has negatively impacted agriculture production, domestic and livestock water use. This has also led to an increase of new river breakages as the riverine communities attempt to extract the limited resource to support livelihood activities. SWALIM has completed analysis and mapping of the river breakages along the two rivers using very high resolution satellite images acquired thanks to the kind contribution of the Embassy of France. The study has identified 101 open points along the Shabelle, out of which 24 points are new and the rest have remained open since the last survey in August 2021. Along the Juba River, 35 open points were identified out of which 5 are new points. During this drought period, it is expected that the riverine communities will continue to extract water from the rivers by breaching the banks and this will only see an increase of the open river bank points. Several other weak points which are not necessarily open but have the potential to overflow or break were identified during the analysis. This information is available in the SWALIM Flood Risk and Response Information Management System (http://frrims.faoswalim.org/rivers/breakages). It is worth noting that since the last survey in August 2021, several agencies including FAO have made efforts to close about 23 of the open river banks and reinforced about 37 of weak river embankments that could otherwise flood when river levels rise. With the Gu rains expected in April 2022, the rise in river levels will consequently lead to floods resulting from the existing open river bank points and weak river embankments. It is therefore advisable to close the open points and reinforce the weak points before the start of the Gu season to avoid the negative impacts of riverine flooding. The methodology heavily relied on satellite imageries with limited field verification. Open breakages might have been omitted in some cases due to cloud cover or vegetation cover along the embankments

The poor rains during the last three consecutive seasons (October 2020 to December 2021) have caused widespread and worsening drought conditions across most parts of Somalia. This has resulted in failed crop harvests, widespread water shortage, triggering abnormal livestock migration, decline in livestock production and increased livestock deaths. Water and food prices have continued to rise sharply. Since December 2021 the drought severity has notably worsened. As of January 2022, most parts of the country are experiencing Severe drought conditions, with Jubaland and central regions and adjacent areas already in Extreme drought. Somaliland, which was previously less affected is now experiencing Moderate to Severe drought conditions following an influx of both humans and livestock and a rapid depletion of rangeland conditions.

Drought severity in Somalia has continued to worsen following prolonged dry period characterized by high temperatures. The drought conditions in Jubaland in southern parts of the country have deteriorated from severe to extreme. Other areas that were experiencing mild drought conditions in the north are now facing moderate levels of drought with the situation expected to get worse. Wells are drying up rapidly while the river levels along the Juba and Shabelle continue to decrease at an alarming rate. Currently, more than 90 percent of the country is experiencing drought conditions at different severity magnitudes with the southern and central parts being worst affected. Pasture and water came to a complete depletion in many areas leaving about 169,000 in displacement as of today (OCHA—2022 Drought Response Plan Report). Drought conditions are expected to worsen during the first quarter of 2022 with possibility of extending to the second quarter due to extended impacts.

The impacts of Climate Change and variability in Somalia are the major causes of current climatic hazards that have been facing the country over the last 10 years. In 2018 and 2019 the country experienced heavy rains leading to massive flooding and associated negative impacts. This was followed by poor rains in Dyer 2020, Gu 2021 and the ongoing Deyr season. Currently, more than 80% of the country is experiencing severe drought conditions following a third consecutive failed rainfall season. This has led to serious human suffering. Water trucking, migration of populations and livestock has become rampant in many areas leading to quick depletion of the limited resources. The Juba and Shabelle river levels are low and are expected to decrease further in the coming months. Likewise, most berkads and shallow wells have dried up leaving the communities to rely on boreholes which are far apart and some with low yield and poor quality especially in Puntland and the central regions. With crop failure expected in most of the agricultural areas the prospects for Deyr season cereal production remain bleak. The rainfall forecast for the second half of November indicates depressed rains in the country which will not be effective in mitigating the drought conditions. Drought conditions are expected to worsen in December 2021 and the first quarter of 2022 leading to a similar situation witnessed in 2017.