Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 15 November 2023
In the next week heavy rainfall is expected over parts of Gedo, Bay, and Galgaduud regions, and moderate to heavy rainfall over most other parts of the country. Dry conditions with chances of isolated light rainfall are however expected in Bari region. Much of the forecast rains over Galgaduud and Bay regions are likely to be received between 15th and 17th November 2023. The spatio-temperal variation of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) is described below: • Heavy rainfall of between 100 mm and 150 mm is expected over the western areas of Gedo Specifically in Ceel Waaq, Belet Xaawo, isolated parts of Luuq, Dollow, and Garbahaarey. Likewise, Baydhaba in Bay, along with parts of Xuddur, Tayeeglow, and Waajid bordering Bay in the Bakool region, are expected to experience similar intense rainfall. In Galgaduud, comparable weather conditions are expected, particularly over Cabudwaaq and Cadaado. Additionally, isolated areas in Hiraan and Sanaag are also likely to encounter heavy rainfall during this period. The Ethiopian highlands is also expected to receive high to moderate rainfall over the forecast period • Moderate rainfall of between 50 mm and 100 mm is forecast over extensive areas in Gedo, Bay, Bakool, Hiraan, Galgaduud, and Mudug regions. Similar conditions are also anticipated in the northwestern regions of the country, particularly over Lughaye and Baki in Awdal, the northern areas of Gebilley, Sheikh in Togdheer, extensive parts of Woqooyi Galbeed, as well as Ceel Afweyn and Ceerigavo in the Sanaag region. • Light rainfall of below 50 mm is expected over several areas in Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle regions, parts of Dinsor and Burhakabar in Bay region, Jalalaqsi in Hiraan region, Ceel Buur, Ceel Dheere and parts of Dhuusamarreeb in Galgaduud, extensive part of Mudug, Nuugal, Bari, Sool, Sanaag regions, Zeylac and Borama in Awdal region, Hargeisa and Southern parts of Gebilley in Woqooyi Galbeed, Burco, Buuhodle and most parts of Odweyne in Togheer, most parts of Bosasso, Qandala, Coastal parts of Callula, Isolated pasts of Iskushuban and Qardho in Bari region. • Dry conditions are expected over isolated areas in Sanaag, Taleex, Qardo, Iskushuban, Callula, extensive parts of Bandarbeyla, northern parts of Eyl and Isolated parts of Lower Juba.
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