The last few days saw a reduction of rainfall activities across Somalia with most stations recording light or no rains. The Ethiopian highlands did not record any significant rains as well. The rainfall forecast for the coming seven days is calling for a further reduction of rains in most areas except the southern most tip of the country in Lower Juba that will continue receive light rains. No rains are foreseen within the Ethiopian highlands in the coming seven days. With no rains seen in the last few days, the river levels have dropped slightly and remain below normal at this time of the year. The trend is expected to continue until more rains are received in Mid April.

The 2020 Gu (April-June) seasonal rains continued to intensify across Somalia during the 4th week of April. Compared to the previous two weeks, there was a significant increase of rainfall in most parts of Somalia as well as the eastern Ethiopian highlands. Many areas observed more than three days of consecutive heavy rains across the country. The good rains received so far have continued to replenish water and pasture resources. An improvement in livestock body conditions and milk production has been reported as well. On the downside, parts of the country experienced flash flood and flooding has begun in the Juba and Shabelle rivers. Following heavy rains, river levels increased considerably along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers leading to flooding along the Juba. Flash floods were also experienced in Bay and Bakool Regions. Shabelle River: Heavy rains within the Shabelle basin both in Ethiopia and inside Somalia have led to a drastic increase in river levels along the Shabelle River. Most of the stations in the basin recorded 50 mm to 100 mm of rainfall in the last three days. In Belet Weyne and surrounding areas, river levels recorded a sharp increase in the last 72 hours, which has seen a rise of 3.50 m to 6.00 m as of today. This is only 0.50 m below the moderate flood risk level. The river level at Bulo Burti is 3.50 m, which is 1.5 m increase in the last 72 hours, and is 2.5 m below the moderate flood risk level; however, this is likely to increase rapidly in the next few days. In Jowhar, there has been a 1.00 m increase in river level in the last 24 hours following heavy rains in the area last night. A similar trend has been observed in Balcad and the lower reaches of the river. The river levels are expected to continue rising along the entire channel of Shabelle as more waters from the Ethiopian highlands are still streaming in. High risk of flooding is therefore foreseen along the Shabelle during this week and through early May. Existence of river breakages (50 points identified and reported by SWALIM in February 2020) is likely to exacerbate the flooding situation unless urgent measures are taken. Juba River: River levels increased sharply last week following heavy rains in the Ethiopian highlands and within Somalia. Flash floods were observed in Dollow town leading to destruction of some business premises and houses. Further, riverine flooding has been reported north of Dollow town where the Dawa and Juba rivers converge, leading to inundation of unconfirmed acreage of cropland. Floods were also observed around Luuq town leading to inundation of cropped area. In Gedo region around Bardheere, river levels remain very high and have surpassed the high-risk flood level this morning. Flooding in the area started since 23 April 2020 and continues to date. Middle Juba and Lower Juba regions are experiencing high river levels with flooding being reported in these reaches. River levels are expected to fluctuate in the coming week with a high risk of flooding along the entire Juba river channel. In Bay and Bakool regions: Heavy rains resulted led to flash floods which have affected some IDP settlements within Baidoa town. Bur Hakaba, Baardale, Huddur and Qansadheere districts were the most affected. Moderate risk of flooding remain in this area. Puntland, Somaliland and Central regions: Since the beginning of the rainy season, moderate to heavy rains have been reported in many parts of the northern regions. In Somaliland, more than 10 stations in Woqooyi Galbeed and Togdheer regions recorded heavy rains of more than 50 mm to 100 mm cumulatively. Moderate rains have also been observed in Puntland; however, a few places in Bari and Nuugal regions have only recorded light rains during the month.

Most parts of Somalia will remain dry in the next seven days, apart from some areas in Gedo, Bay, Middle Juba and Lower Juba regions, in the south where light to moderate rains are expected. Moderate wet conditions are also expected in the Ethiopian highlands within the week. Other areas including Somaliland, Puntland and central regions will remain dry or receive minimal rains during the week. River levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers continued to rise gradually but still remains below normal at this time of the year. The levels may increase further towards the end of the week with no risk of flooding.

The Gu rainy season continued to spread in time and space within Somalia leaving trails of devastating flood impacts in some locations. Heavy storms in Qardo, Bari region and Burao in Togdheer region on the night of 27 April 2020 led to severe flash floods leading to massive destruction of properties and loss of lives. In the southern regions, heavy rains within the Juba and Shabelle basins led to river flooding along the Juba River while the levels increased dramatically along the Shabelle. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is calling for increased rainfall in most areas inside Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. Today, 29 April 2020, heavy storms are expected in southern parts of Wooqoyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Nugaal, Bari and Mudug regions in the northern regions. Parts of Bay and Bakool regions in the south are also expected to record good rains within the next 24 hours. Another bout of flash floods is high likely in the northern regions, especially Bari and Nugal regions, within the 24 to 48 hours period. Further, low lying areas of Bay and Bakool will experience the same given the forecast. The levels in Bardheere surpassed the high flood risk level, leading to severe river flooding in the area in the last two days. The flooding is expected to continue during this week. Floods are also reported in the middle and lower reaches of the Juba river. The River levels along the Shabelle River which increased sharply in the last few days are expected to remain so with high likelihood of flooding starting from 30 April 2020.

The last one week saw a significant reduction of rainfall activities in Somalia with light rains being observed in scattered areas across the country as the Gu season continues to spread. The rainfall forecast for the next three days is calling for moderate rains of up to 50mm cumulatively in most parts of Somaliland, Southern regions and the Ethiopian highlands with the intensity expected to increase as the week progresses. The weekly cumulative forecast indicates more than 100mm of rainfall within the Juba and Shabelle river basins both inside Somali and within the Ethiopian Highlands. The same amount of rainfall is foreseen in parts of Awdal, Toghdheer and Woqqoyi Galbeed in Somaliland. On the other hand, light or no rains are foreseen in the central regions of the country. The foreseen heavy rains will lead to an increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia with no risk of flooding along the rivers. Flash floods may occur in built up and low lying areas of Somaliland, Bay and Bakool regions where more rains are expected during the forecast period.

The last two days saw an increase in rainfall activities across Somalia. Most stations within the Juba and Shabelle basins in the south, recording 50 mm to 70 mm cumulatively. Moderate rains were also recorded in Somaliland while Puntland regions saw light rains in the last two days. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is calling for increased rainfall activities in Somaliland, Southern parts of Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. Heavy rains of up to 100 mm are expected in these regions. Bari, Sool, Nugal and Mudug regions are expected to remain dry during the forecast period. The foreseen heavy rains will lead to an increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia with no risk of flooding along the rivers. Flash floods may occur in built up and low lying areas of Somaliland, Middle Juba, Bay and Bakool regions where more rains are expected during the forecast period.

The Gu 2020 rainy season (March/April—June) has kicked off in some parts of the country since 20 March 2020. In Somaliland, Wajaale and Aburin stations recorded a total of 68mm and 40mm respectively with other regions receiving less than 30mm. In Puntland, Buhoodle and Baran stations recorded 30mm and 24mm respectively in the last two days. The last 24 hours also saw moderate rains in parts of the Juba and Shabelle basins in the south where Belet Weyne recorded 42mm and Buaale 13mm. The rains are expected to continue spreading in time and space during the coming weeks with the season expected to record enhanced rains before coming to an end in June 2020. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three days indicates light to moderate rains in many regions in the northern areas and scattered places in the south. Moderate rains are also expected in the Ethiopian highland whose rainfall is largely responsible for increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia. The rains will then spread further as the week progresses with more intensity in the Ethiopian highlands and southern parts of Somalia. Most parts of the central areas will remain dry in the coming week. River levels are currently very low along the two rivers. Given the rainfall forecast, the levels will start to increase towards the end of the week with no risk of flooding during the forecast period.

Charcoal is made by burning wood in a low-oxygen environment. According to FAO statistics, Africa accounts for 55% of the global charcoal production (FAO, 2014). However, these charcoal production estimates are often inaccurate when disaggregated at the national level. For many African countries, detailed information is lacking partly due to the informality and clandestine nature of production sector and the scattered production by rural population (Mwampamba et al, 2013). Estimates are consequently based on analytical and projection models that use woodfuel information of countries in similar socioeconomic and geographical situations, or by multiplying the country population by a per capita estimate

The Gu 2020 rains continued to be spread across the country in the last few days with moderate to heavy rains being recorded in the northern regions and light to moderate rains in the southern regions. The rains are yet to start in the central regions of the country. In Somaliland, Lughaye station and the surrounding areas received unusually heavy rains of 102mm on 26 March 2020. Hargeisa recorded 61mm while Gebiley saw a total of 40mm in the same day. The eastern side of Somaliland received light to moderate rains. Parts of Puntland also saw increased rainfall activities in the last three days with many stations recording good rains of between 20mm and 50mm. The southern regions also received good rains of about 20mm-50mm in the last two days. The rains are expected to continue spreading in time and space during the coming weeks with the season expected to record enhanced rains before coming to an end in June 2020. Moderate to heavy rains are expected on 27 March 2020 in the southern regions of Somalia especially in Bay, Bakool and the Juba regions. The cumulative weekly forecast is calling for a reduction of rainfall activities in the northern regions as well as within the Ethiopian highlands. The central regions will remain dry during the forecast period. There has been a slight increase in river levels over the last two days. The river levels are expected to continue increasing gradually with no risk of flooding during the forecast period.

The Food and Agriculture Organization’s Somalia Water and Land Information Management (FAO SWALIM) Project, has finalized the analysis and mapping of the river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle rivers using very high resolution satellite imagery. Breakages identified in the map have been classified into five different categories; Open, Overflow, Potential Overflows, Potential breakages and Closed with sandbags. A legend/Key for further explanation of the different types of breakages is provided here. The heavy rains during the Deyr 2019 rainy season led to increased flow causing overflow and riverbank breakages in sections of the two rivers. Henceforth, there was an increase of the open points from the previous assessment of August 2019. A total of 152 Open points have been identified, 100 on the Shabelle River and 52 on the Juba River which require immediate attention. Several other points, which are either potential or temporarily closed with sandbags, have also been identified. The Gu 2020 rainfall outlook is calling for enhanced rains within the Juba and Shabelle Rivers as well as the Ethiopian highlands. Consequently, river levels are expected to increase with a high likelihood of flooding especially where open and potential points have been identified. There is therefore an immediate need to close the open points and reinforce areas where there are weak river embankments. Intervening agencies are advised to take advantage of the current dry period until the rains start and carry out temporary or long term measures to close the river breakages. This will see a reduction of riverine flooding in case of heavy rains and consequently a massive reduction in economic losses to the country. SWALIM is pleased to share with you maps and tables of the status of river breakages along the two rivers. Hardcopies can be obtained from FAO SWALIM offices. It is worth noting that the methodology is biased towards Remote Sensing (RS) interpretation with only limited “ground truthing” due to constraints in accessing the areas. Open breakages and overflows might have been omitted or classified as potential in some cases where satellite images were not available or may not have been very clear due to heavy cloud cover and dense vegetation cover.

The Gu rains start in March/April and end at different times across Somalia, depending on the north-south movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which is the leading factor for the timing of rainfall in most parts of Africa. Most of the annual rainfall in Somalia (75%) is recorded during the Gu season. As a result, performance of Gu season rainfall is critical both for crop-dependent and livestock-dependent livelihoods across Somalia. According to the consensus climate outlook for the Greater Horn of Africa (GHACOF54) issued in later January 2020, there is a strong possibility (greater likelihood) of March to May 2020 rainfall being average (35%) and above average (35-40%) in most parts of Somalia with likely warmer than usual temperatures across the whole country. This also includes the Ethiopian highlands which contribute significantly to both Juba and Shabelle river flows inside Somalia. Some areas in the far northwestern parts of Somalia, including Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed and parts of Togdheer regions have higher chances of below normal (40%) to normal (35%) rains. The regional forecast further indicates a likely early start of the season in southern parts of Somalia. On the other hand, a delayed onset of the rainfall is expected over northern parts of the country which is also likely to have prolonged dry periods a few weeks after the start of the season. The expected average to above average rains will boost crop production prospects and replenish pasture and water sources in most parts of Somalia. This comes after a largely favorable rainy season during the October-December 2019 Deyr season, which will contribute to continued recovery among pastoral and agropastoral livelihoods that have previously been adversely affected by recurrent drought conditions. On the downside, riverine flooding along the Juba and Shabelle rivers is likely to occur along the entire channels of the two rivers. This will likely exacerbate the devastation that populations along the two rivers experienced during the 2019 Deyr season. Currently, there are many open river breakages along the two main rivers and this will likely worsen given the expected increase in river levels and consequent flooding during the forthcoming Gu season. SWALIM is in the process of updating the river breakages database which will be shared soon. Flash floods are likely to occur in low lying and built up areas especially in north east and central regions. The expected below normal rains in the far northwestern regions could lead to depletion of pasture and water resources with high likelihood of mild drought conditions towards the middle of the year. Therefore, communities should conserve and use available water resources judiciously. Despite the overall forecast described in the foregoing sections, local and month-to-month variations might occur as the season progresses. Sporadic rainfall events leading to flash floods are likely to occur even in areas with increased likelihood of near to below normal rainfall. Also, dry spells might occur in areas where enhanced rainfall is foreseen. FAO, through SWALIM and its technical partners, will keep updating this forecast for shorter lead time periods and share update information throughout the Gu season

Strong winds and heavy rains reported in coastal areas of Puntland as tropical storm PAWAN Makes Landfall The north eastern parts of Somalia experienced extreme weather in form of a tropical storm since 06 December 2019. The tropical storm named PAWAN was associated with strong winds and heavy rains in some parts of Puntland with most stations recording high amounts of rainfall. The extreme weather conditions have led to destruction of property and infrastructure including roads, buildings and boats. Currently, flash floods still threaten many areas following the heavy downpour that is still being experienced in some areas. The rains are expected to spread further inland to many areas within Somaliland, Puntland and central regions. SWALIM and partners are monitoring the situation and will update you accordingly. For more details on tropical storm tracking you can consult: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ or SWALIM.

The coastal areas of East Arica have seen an increase in the frequency and strength of tropical storms since 2013, with one or two storms occurring each year since then. This can largely be attributed to climate change and the dynamic weather variation in the East African countries. Climate change studies further suggest an increase of such storms during the 21st Century. More studies are however needed to affirm and predict the storms timely for early action. Last weekend saw a tropical storm make landfall in the north eastern parts of Somalia. The tropical storm named PAWAN was associated with strong winds and heavy rains in some parts of Puntland with most stations recording more than three times their long term mean annual rainfall. For instance, Eyl recorded a total of 260mm while Dangoroyo received 198mm in two days. Other stations that recorded notable amounts include Hasbahale (80mm), Garowe (85mm), Iskushuban (75mm), Qardo (48mm) and Buuhoodle (52mm)among others. The extreme weather conditions led to livestock death as well as destruction of property and infrastructure including roads, buildings and boats. There has also been extensive erosion along the coast and inland. Currently, transport has been disrupted in many areas along the storm path making it difficult to render humanitarian assistance. Standing waters in some areas also pose an immediate danger of water related diseases. Positively, the heavy rains have been beneficial to the eastern parts of Puntland which had remained water stressed for a long period. There will be ground water recharge as well as pasture growth within these areas. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three and seven days (Map 1 and 2) indicates light to moderate rainfall in the southern regions and within the Ethiopian highlands. Consequently, this may lead to a further increase in river levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. There remains a high risk of flooding along the Shabelle and moderate risk of flooding along the Juba in the coming week.

The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three and seven days (Map 1 and 2) indicates an increase of rainfall activities towards the end of the forecast period. Specifically heavy rains are expected in the northern and central regions from 07 December 2019. Cumulative amounts exceeding 100mm may fall in coastal areas of Saanag, Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions. Given the forecast, there is a high risk of flash floods in the areas where heavy rains area expected. Of great concern is the fisheries and livestock sectors along the coastal areas which may be impacted negatively by the heavy rains. River levels along the Shabelle remain high and are anticipated to remain so in the coming week. There remains a moderate risk of flooding along the river. Observed river levels along the Juba increased sharply over the last two days following heavy rains in the Ethiopian highlands. River levels at Luuq and Dollow are at moderate risk of flooding while levels at Bardheere are currently at high risk level. The high levels will be sustained in the coming days and are expected to start decreasing towards the end of the week.

The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three and seven days indicates light to moderate rainfall in parts of southern regions and within the Ethiopian highlands. River levels along the Shabelle continued to rise and are currently very high along the entire reach. Flooding has been reported in parts of Belet Weyne district and the river is only 0.40m below the bank full level. River levels along the Juba have been fluctuating over the last week. Given the rainfall forecast and current situation, there remains a high risk of flooding along the Shabelle and low risk of flooding along the Juba in the coming week.

Tropical Storm SIX expected to cause strong winds and some rains across Puntland and Somaliland A Tropical Storm currently centred in the north Indian Ocean near the coast of Puntland is expected to intensify further and move in a south western direction and cross Mudug coastal areas between Hobyo and Eyl districts on 06 December 2019. Under its influence, moderate to heavy rain are likely to cause flash floods in some regions including Mudug, Nugaal, Bari and Sanaag starting on 06 December 2019. Strong winds associated with the storm may cause destruction of weak structures and fishing gears along the coast. While current forecasts indicate a low probability for the cyclone (10%), if the cyclone makes a landfall, it could have a devastating impact. This is why SWALIM is issuing the Alert. Communities along the coast are advised to take necessary precautions in the coming days. SWALIM and partners are monitoring the situation and will update you accordingly. For more details on tropical storm tracking you can consult: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ or consult SWALIM.

The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three and seven days indicates moderate to heavy rainfall in most parts of the country starting form 06 December 2019. Specifically heavy rains are expected in the northern and central regions from 06 December 2019, these rains area associated with the passage of a tropical storm which is currently located in the Indian Ocean. Cumulative amounts exceeding 100mm may fall in coastal areas of Saanag, Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions. Given the forecast, there is a high risk of flash floods in the areas where heavy rains area expected. Of great concern is the fisheries and livestock sectors along the coastal areas which may be impacted negatively by the heavy rains. Further, heavy rains will be expected on 09 and 10 December 2019 within the Juba and Shabelle river basins inside Somalia and within the Ethiopian highlands. River levels along the Shabelle remain high and are anticipated to remain so in the coming week. There is a high risk of flooding along the Shabelle River. Observed river levels along the Juba increased sharply over the last few days following heavy rains in the Ethiopian highlands. River levels at Luuq and Dollow are at moderate risk of flooding while levels at Bardheere are currently at high risk level. The high levels will be sustained in the coming days and are expected to start decreasing towards the end of the forecast period.

Tropical Storm PAWAN expected to lead to winds of medium strength with moderate to heavy rainfall amounts in parts of Somaliland, Puntland and Central regions of Somalia The Tropical Storm (TS) initially named SIX that developed in the northern Indian Ocean has now been assigned the name PAWAN after sustaining a speed of more than 39 miles per hour for two days. The probability of the TS landing in the coastal areas of Puntland has increased from (10% TO 35%) over the last two days and is expected to make a land fall in Nugaal region in the next 24 hours. The influence of PAWAN may start being felt in the coastal areas of Bari, Mudug and Sanaag regions in the next 12 hours where moderate to heavy rains and strong winds are expected. The rains will then spread further inland to many areas within Somaliland, Puntland and central regions on 07 and 08 December 2019. The storm poses an immediate threat to the shipping lane that links Somalia and Gulf states. Other impacts expected include destruction of property and infrastructure including roads, buildings and boats due to the strong winds. Flash floods may also disrupt normal activities along the tropical storm path. Communities living along this areas are advised to take necessary precautions. SWALIM and partners are monitoring the situation and will update you accordingly. For more details on tropical storm tracking you can consult: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ or swalim@fao.org.

The Deyr rains continued into the second month of the season with many stations recording light to moderate rains in the southern parts of the country. Parts of central and Puntland areas recorded heavy rains on 2nd and 3rd of November. No rains were reported in Somaliland during the week in review. The good rains received so far have continued to replenish water sources further improving pasture growth and reducing water stress. There has been an improvement in livestock body conditions and milk production as well. Shabelle River: In Belet Weyne and surrounding areas, river levels reached its maximum carrying capacity on 24 October 2019 and has remained so up to date leading to overflow which left most of the town under water. The flood waters in the town have however started receding back to the river which is causing an increase of river in the downstream stations. Levels at Bulo Burti are currently very high and only 4cm away from the bank full level. Satellite image analysis further indicate inundation of more than 10,000 Hectares of agricultural land in Belet Weyne district. Unknown amount of crop land has also been inundated in Bulo Burti and Jalalaqsi districts. In Middle Shabelle, floods have damaged more than 65,000 Hectares of cropland at Jowhar and Mahaday Weyne following high river levels and open river breakages. The river levels are expected to remain high along the entire channel of Shabelle as more waters from the Ethiopian highlands are still streaming in. High risk of flooding remains along the Shabelle in the coming week. Juba River: Along Juba River the levels dropped gradually over the last week. The levels are expected to fluctuate in the coming week with a Moderate risk of flooding towards the end of the week. In Bay and Bakool regions: There was a reduction of rainfall activities in these regions over the last week which improved the situation in terms of flooding. Puntland, Somaliland and Central regions: A tropical storm named KYARR dissipated in the Indian Ocean before making a land fall in Somalia as earlier predicted. The much expected heavy rains and associated impacts were therefore not experienced. However, a few places in Puntland and central regions recorded heavy rains on the 2nd and 3rd of November which led to flash floods that destroyed property and death of livestock. The rainfall forecast for the coming week shows continuing rainfall activities in many parts of Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. As a result, the current high river levels, and ongoing riverine flooding, along the Shabelle river are expected to continue in the coming week. Flash floods will also be experienced in low-lying areas of Bakool, Bay and Galgaduud region. No significant amount of rains area foreseen in Nuugal, Bari and Mudug regions. Hot and dry conditions are expected to persist in the coming week calling a cause for concern due to the prolonged dry period which may lead to depletion of water resources and pasture in the coming weeks.

Rainfall activities continued in parts of Somalia with some regions experiencing flash floods following heavy downpours. Some of the areas affected by flash floods in this week include Mogadishu, Erigavo, Zeylac and a few pockets of Lower Juba. The last two days have however seen a significant reduction of rainfall activities across the country as we approach the end of the rainy season. Shabelle River: Since the last week of October more than 50% of Belet Weyne inhabitants fled from their homes. With the reduction of rainfall activities in the Ethiopian highlands and within Somalia, flood waters have now completely receded and most people returned to their homes. There is no risk of flooding in the coming week. Satellite image analysis indicate that more than 128,066 Hectares of land along the Shabelle of which more than 50% is agricultural land (80,041 ha) was inundated during the month of October and November. On the positive side, riverine farmers would make strategic use of the flood water to secure a good off season harvest, before it dries up in the next month. Extended season also brings extended agricultural labor opportunities and related wages. Juba River: Along Juba River the levels dropped gradually over the last two weeks consequently reducing the flood impacts. Riverine floods along the Juba during the month of October and early November left a total of 79,229 Hectares of land inundated of which 29, 748 Hectares is agricultural land. This has damaged farmland and crops leading to livelihood losses. The levels are expected to decrease in the coming week with no risk of flooding towards the end of the week. In Bay and Bakool regions: There was a reduction of rainfall activities in these regions over the previous weeks, which improved the situation in terms of flooding. Puntland, Somaliland and Central regions: Heavy rains recorded from 22 November left parts of Somaliland and Puntland flooded. However, the situation has so far improved and there is no risk of flash floods in the coming week. The rainfall forecast for the coming week shows a significant reduction of rainfall activities across Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. As a result, flood situation is expected to improve during the week in forecast. Larger parts of the north eastern regions have remained dry since the beginning of the season. This includes great parts of Bari, Mudug and Nugaal region. Hot and dry conditions are expected to persist in the coming week calling a cause for concern due to the prolonged dry period which may lead to further depletion of water resources and pasture in the coming weeks.

The rains in the Juba and Shabelle river basin and the Ethiopian highlands continued to subside giving relief to the flooding experienced in the riverine areas. Along the Juba river, flood waters affected about 78 settlements. Analysis from satellite images indicate that a total of 79,229 Hectares were inundated as of 10 November 2019. This includes 29,748 ha of agricultural land and 48,481 ha of natural vegetation.

The last two weeks saw a significant decrease in rainfall activities in Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands. Consequently, there was a gradual reduction of river levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. Flood waters also have been receding in Belet Weyne,Bulo Burti and Jalalaqsi in Hiraan Region, this has left the local communities and authorities with concern following damage of properties and livelihoods and possible spread of diseases. Currently, the Shabelle River remains at moderate risk of flooding while the Juba River is at no risk of flooding this week. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three and seven days is calling for moderate to heavy rains across the country as well as within the Ethiopian highlands. In particular heavy rains of more than 100mm are expected in Bay, Bakool, Middle and Lower Shabelle regions within the southern areas of the country. Similar amounts of rainfall are also foreseen in Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer and Sool regions in the north. River levels along the Shabelle remain high and are anticipated to remain so in the coming week given the current situation and foreseen rains. There remains a moderate risk of flooding along the river. Observed river levels along the Juba continued to drop and are currently within the normal at this time of the year. Mild to moderate levels of flash floods are expected in low lying areas of Bay, Bakool and northern regions in the coming week.

The ongoing floods along the Shabelle River in Somalia has affected Belet Weyne District the worst. In Belet Weyne town, the river has remained at bankful level for the seventh day running. Flood waters have continued to ravage the town displacing more than 160,000 persons. Analysis from satellite images indicate that a total of 15,504 Hectares have been inundated as of 30 October 2019. This includes 3,265 ha of irrigated agriculture, 7,332 ha of rain-fed agriculture and 4,907 ha of natural vegetation. A total of 111 settlements are also under water. It is worth noting that the current flood extent in Belet Weyne town has not been detected due to the intrinsic nature of radar and optical images used (Sentinel-1 and 2 respectively). The Sentinel-1 imagery may significantly underestimate the presence of standing floodwater in dense built-up areas due to backscattering of the radar signal, while Sentinel-2 imagery is affected by cloud cover over Belet Weyne.

The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three and seven days is calling for moderate to heavy rains across the country as well as within the Ethiopian highlands. In particular, heavy rains of 50mm to 80mm are anticipated in the north western regions on 22nd and 23rd November 2019. The north eastern parts of the country which have remained dry since the beginning of the season are expected to receive light to moderate rains during the forecast week. The Juba and Shabelle Basins within Somalia and Ethiopia will also see an increase in rainfall activities, as more than 100mm of rainfall is foreseen in the upper reaches of the catchments inside Ethiopia. The central regions of Mudug and parts of Nugaal will remain mostly dry. River levels along the Shabelle remain high and are anticipated to remain so in the coming week given the current situation and foreseen rains. There remains a moderate risk of flooding along the river. Observed river levels along the Juba continued to drop and are currently within the normal at this time of the year. Given the forecast the levels will start to increase towards the end of the week with minimal risk of flooding along the Juba. Mild to moderate levels of flash floods are expected in low lying areas of Gedo, Bay, Bakool and northern regions in the coming week.

The Deyr 2019 rains have so far been average to above average in many parts of the country apart from Bari, Nuugal and Mudug regions that have experienced below-average rains. The seasonal rains are expected to continue during November with moderate to heavy intensity. During the last week, several places across the country recorded Light to moderate rains. A few places in the coastal areas of Bari and Nugal regions experienced moderate to heavy rains in the last 24Hours which led to flash floods and destruction of properties and death of livestock. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next three and seven days is calling for moderate to heavy rains across the country as well as within the Ethiopian highlands. Lower Juba and Bari regions may receive little or no rains. Belet Weyne in Hiraan region has been at full bank level for the last 11 days leaving about 68% of the town underwater according to analysis from satellite images. Over the previous 24 hours, Bulo Burti reached the highest level in recent history. High levels and flooding in Belet Weyne and other areas along the Shabelle will be sustained in the next couple of days given the current situation and foreseen rains. There was a reduction of river levels along the Juba River with no flood risk over the last week following a decrease in rainfall activities.  Flash floods are expected in low lying areas of Nuugal, Mudug, Bay and Bakool in the coming week given the rainfall forecast.