Following a poor rainfall season of Deyr 2018 (Oct – Dec) within the Juba and Shabelle river basins the river flows of the two rivers have since been significantly below normal. Reports indicate of drying river beds in some section of the Shabelle River during the month of February 2019. The situation is expected to improve in April given the GU 2019 rainfall forecast which calls for good rains within the catchments. FAO through SWALIM, has been involved in analysing and mapping the river breakages along the Shabelle River using very high resolution (sub meter) satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) derived from earlier acquired aerial photographs having 3 meter resolution. Five types of breakages have been identified along Shabelle River namely; Open, Overflow, Potential Overflows, Potential breakages and Closed. The open breakages are those that were still open according to the latest satellite image analysed . The Overflow, indicates points where there has been recent river spillage causing extensive flooding. The potential overflows are those points that have high likelihood of overbank spillage but not overflowing at the time of analysis due to low river flows. The Potential breakages represent points that have very weak river embankments or have experienced several breakages in the past. The closed breakages are those that were previously open but efforts have been made to close them either with sand bags or heavy machinery. A total of 88 Open points have been identified, 44 on each river. In addition, 14 overflow points have been identified along the Shabelle River and none along the Juba River. More overflows could be expected when rivers level rises above normal rate. Several other points, which are either potential or temporarily closed with sandbags, have also been identified. With the Gu rains expected in April 2019, river levels will increase with a likelihood of flooding especially where open and overflow points have been identified. There is therefore an immediate need to close the open points and reinforce areas where there are weak river embankments. Temporary measures can be taken before the season begins. Maps of the status of river breakages along the two rivers, with detailed information, have been produced at large scale and hardcopies can be obtained from FAO SWALIM offices. This information is also available on the SWALIM website. It is worth noting that the methodology is biased towards Remote Sensing (RS) interpretation with only limited “ground truthing” due to access constraints. Open breakages and overflows might have been omitted or classified as potential in some cases where satellite images were not available or may not have been very clear due to heavy cloud cover and dense vegetation cover.

The much anticipated Gu rains in Somalia may experience a delay owing to the ongoing cyclonic systems in southern Indian Ocean. The ocean systems have delayed the northward movement of the rain bearing zone – Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Further, this has reduced the influx of moisture expected in the East African countries including Kenya and Somalia. Following a poor Deyr 2018 season many parts of the countries have experienced prolonged dry periods that have led to mild to moderate drought conditions in the country. The worst affected areas being north eastern parts of Puntland central regions.

Gu (April-June) is the primary rainy season in Somalia because it is more dominant in terms of quantity and reliability. Approximately 75 percent of the annual rainfall in Somalia is recorded during the Gu season. The Gu rains typically start in March/April and ends at different times throughout the country depending on the movement of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which is responsible for driving the rainfall. According to the recently issued consensus climate outlook for the Greater Horn of Africa (GHACOF51), the 2019 Gu rainy season in Somalia is expected to be near normal to above normal in most areas with warmer than normal temperatures across the whole country. There is increased likelihood of above normal to near normal rains with 70 percent probability of experiencing above normal to normal rains in Somaliland. The Ethiopian highlands whose rainfall contributes about 90 percent of the river flow in Juba and Shabelle rivers inside Somalia are also expected to record enhanced Gu season rains. The southern parts of Somalia, including large parts of central regions and Puntland will likely receive near normal rainfall. The coastal and adjacent parts of Nugaal, Mudug, Galgadud, Middle and Lower Shabelle Regions are expected to receive depressed rains with a higher percent probability of below normal to near normal rains

Following a below average Deyr 2018 (October-December) rainy season (Map 1) parts of Somalia are facing abnormally dry conditions, particularly large parts of the central and northern regions. The Deyr 2018 rainfall pattern in these region was poorly distributed in term of space and time. Most stations recorded less than five days of rainfall. The situation is expected to worsen during this Jilaal dry season (January–March) owing to the continued depletion of available water resources in the country until the start of the next rainy season of Gu 2019. The southern parts of the country was dominated by below normal conditions during the same period, However, a few pockets of Bay and and Bakool received slightly enhanced rains during the month of November 2018. The Ethiopian highlands that produce about 90% of the river flow in Somalia experienced depressed rains and this has significantly affected the river flow inside Somalia along the two major Rivers.

During the last week, some places in the southern regions of the country, received light to moderate rains with a few stations recording cumulative amounts of 10 to 40mm. The Ethiopian highlands, which contribute significantly to the river flow of Juba and Shabelle rivers inside Somalia, also recorded moderate rains in the last week. The central parts, Somaliland and Puntland continued to remain dry during the same week. Moderate rains during the past week in the southern regions of Somalia, improved the soil moisture conditions and led to a slight increase of river levels, which are however below normal at this time of the year especially in the upper and middle sections of the river at Belet Weyne and Jowhar. With a forecast of below normal rains in the coming week, the river levels are likely to continue dropping. There remains a significant rainfall deficit in Puntland and central regions of Somalia. Soil moisture deficits coupled with high temperatures have led to water shortage and depreciation of pasture in the area. With no foreseen significant rainfall, amounts in the coming weeks, and following the deteriorating situation on the ground, the Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management Agency (HADMA) has appealed for early humanitarian interventions in Puntland on behalf of the local government.

The three days cumulated rainfall forecast is pointing towards light rains in scattered places across the country with Puntland expected to remain dry within the three days. Rainfall activities are expected to increase as seen in the one week forecast towards the end of the week especially in Southern and central parts of Somalia and the upper parts of the Juba and Shabelle basins within the Ethiopian highlands. Hot and dry conditions remain a concern in Somaliland and Puntland with the rainy season coming to an end. River levels along the Juba and Shabelle basins remain within the normal ranges with no risk of flooding given the rainfall forecast.

The 2018 Deyr rainy season was generally poor with many areas in Somalia recording average to below average rains. This is contrary to earlier predictions of enhanced rainfall in the country. Some areas in Sool, Sanaag and most of the central regions recorded little or no rains during the season. The season started off well in the northern regions and ended early while the southern regions experienced a prolonged delay of the rains which ended in late November and early December. Since the beginning of December, good rains were recorded in the southern regions, however the accumulated amounts were not sufficient to fully erode seasonal deficits. Map 1 gives an analysis of the rainfall performance during the season based on the observed rainfall data and field reports while Map 2 shows a comparison of the seasonal rainfall compared to the long term mean based on satellite rainfall estimates data.

The Deyr 2018 rainy season continued to spread in space across the country with poor performance during the month of October. Some parts are yet to record any significant rains since the season begun. The rainfall forecast for the next three days is calling for light or no rains in the country. The rains are expected to increase towards the end of the week to moderate levels of up to 40mm in the southern regions, west of Somaliland and the Ethiopian highlands. Most of central regions, Puntland and East of Somaliland will remain dry during the week. This calls for concern and close monitoring of the situation especially in Puntland which is already experiencing moisture stress due to the suppressed rains.

The rainfall forecast for the next seven days is calling for increased rains of up to 50—100 mm cumulative in the southern regions of Gedo, Middle Juba, Bay, Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle and Hiraan. The Juba catchment in the Ethiopian highland is also expected to record moderate to heavy rains in the coming week. Somaliland, Puntland and central regions will remain dry during the week in review. Given the rainfall forecast, river level along the Juba are expected to rise in the next few days with minimal risk of flooding. There is a cause for concern in Puntland which has remained dry in the last two weeks. No rainfall is foreseen in this area in the coming week.

The Deyr 2018 rainy season started in some parts of the country during the last week of September and is yet to start in some parts of the country especially in the southern regions. Following the passage of Tropical Strom LUBAN, that made a landfall in Yemen on 14 October 2018, parts of the northern coastal areas of Puntland received light to moderate rains in the last two days. While LUBAN was a threat to the shipping line of Puntland, no damage has been associated with the storm inland of the country. The rainfall forecast for the next three and seven days is calling for light to moderate amounts of rainfall in the northern regions and within the Ethiopian highlands. The central and southern regions of Somalia will receive little or no rains during the forecast period.