Saadaasha dhawaan uu soosaartay Shirweynaha Saadaasha Cimilada ee Weyn Geeska Afrikada (GHACOF50), oo soo baxday 28 Agoost 2018, waxay tilmaameysa inay dhici karto in roobabka Deyta (Oktoobar- Diseembar) ay noqdaan caadi iyo kuwo sarreeya caadiga guud ahaan Soomaaliya. Si gaar ah, saadaashu waxay muujineysaa in qiyaastii boqolkiiba 35 ay roobabku caadiga ka sarreeyaan gudaha Gobollada Waqooyi Galbeed. Qiyaastaasu waa ka sarreysaa (40%) in kale ee dalka (Jaantuska 1). Guud ahaan, suurtogallada roobabka caadiga ah ilaa kuwa caadiga ka sarreeya waa 75 boqolkiiba dalka oo dhan. Sida laga soo xigtay xog laga helay (GHACOF50), xilliga Deyrta 2018 waxaa la rajeynayaa in ay bilawdaan wax ka hor inta caadi ah oo ay si caadi ah uga joogsadaan qaybo badan oo ka mid ah Soomaaliya balse joogsiga hore waxay u badan tahay isla gobollada waqooyi-galbeed ee dalka. Waxaa sidoo kale jira oo laga yaabaa heerkulku kordha oo ka diirran isku celceliska heerkulka caadiga ah ee Soomaaliya. Celceliska la filayo ee ka korreeya celceliska roobabka Deyrta waxaa la rajeynayaa in ay sii wanaajiyaan daaqa iyo biyaha u helitaanka xoolaha, hagaajinta xaaladda xoolaha iyo taranka iyo fududeynta sii kordhida beerashada dalagyada beeraha gudaha goobaha dalagyada lagu beerto ee Soomaaliya. Dhanka kale, roobab caadi ah ilaa caadi ka sarreeya ayaa sidoo kale laga yaabaa in ay ka da’aan qaybo ka mid ah buuraleyda sare ee Itoobiya kuwaas oo si aad ah uga qayb weyn ka qaadanaya socodka labada webi ee ugu waaweyn Soomaaliya (Jubbooyinka iyo Shabeelle). Natiijo ahaan, waxaa jiri doona khatar kordhaysa oo ah fatahaadaha webiyada Jubba iyo Shabelle. Goobaha hooseeya ee Galgaduud, Mudug, qaybo ka mid ah Nugaal iyo gobollada kale ayaa laga yaabaa inay la kulmaan fatahaado inta lagu jiro xilliga Deyrta soo socda sababtoo ah waxaa ka jira saadaasha roobab culculus. Saamaynta la filayo 1. Beeraha iyo Xoolaha Roobabka aad u kordhaya xilligii Deyrta 2018 waxaa la rajeynayaa in ay kor u qaadaan qoyaanka ciidda, taas oo fursado u abuuraysa in ay aad u kordhaan labada qayb ee dalagyada beeraha iyo koboca waxsoosaarka beeraha iyo shaqooyin ka helidda meelaha dalagyda beeraha ku tiirsan ee dalka. Celceliska la filayo oo ah mid ka badan celceliska roobabka Deyrta ayaa la rajeynayaa inuu sii wanaajiyo daaqa iyo biyo u helitaanka xoolaha taas oo sii wanaajinaysa xaalada xoolaha iyo dhalmada. 2. Deegaanka Waxaa lagugula talinayaa in la hirgeliyo tallaabooyin waxqabad oo lagu ilaaliyo ciidda si loo yareeyo xaaluf deegaameedka sababaya ciid-hallowga, boholaha dillaaca iyo nabaad guurka. Beelaha maxalliga ah waa in sidoo kale lagu dhiirrigeliyo in ay beeraan dhir deegaanka ku habboon iyo sidoo kale calafka xoolaha si loo kordhiyo dhirta iyo geedaha dhulka dedka u ah. 3. Maareynta Musiibada Marka eego roobab culus ee la saadaalinayo inay ku dhacaan dooxooyinka labada webi Jubba iyo Shabeele ee gudaha Soomaaliya iyo meelaha u dhawdhaw buuraleyda sare Itoobiya, ayaa loo badinayaa in ay sabab u noqdaan fatahaado meelaha gebiyada webiga daciifka ah iyo kuwa furan. Waxaa jira dhowr gebiyo wabiga oo furan oo khatar keeni kara xitaa xaaladaha roobabka caadiga ah. Daadad burqanaya ayaa sidoo kale laga filan karaa meelaha daadadka u nugul, ee hooseeya. Dawladda, maamullada degaanka, beelaha wabiyada iyo la-hawlgalayaasha ayaa waxaa lagula talinayaa in ay qaataan tallaabooyin yaraynaya halista fatahaada iyaga oo xiraya goobaha gebiyada webiyada furan ka hor bilawga roobabka bisha Oktoobar. 4. Khayraadka Biyaha Biyaha helitaanka, isticmaalka xoolaha iyo dadka labadaba, ayaa la filayaa inuu horumar sameeyo taas oo ah natiijada saadaasha celceliska oo ka sarreeya celceliska roobabka Deyrta. Tani waxay abuureysaa fursado ah qabsashada biyaha iyo u kaydinta isticmaalka mustaqbalka ee beelaha degaanka. Sidaa darted, beelaha waxaa lagu dhiirigelinayaa in ay kordhiyaan tallaabooyinka biyo qabsashada iyo kaydinta iyaga oo garabsanaya maamullada degaanka, xukuumadda iyo la-hawlgalayaasha.

The north eastern parts of the country recorded good rains over the last few days with some stations in southern parts of Togdheer and Sool regions recording over 50mm of rainfall. The rains are expected to continue spreading further in the coming weeks until the end of season in November. The rainfall forecast for the next three days is calling for moderate amounts of rainfall in most places of Puntland and central regions. The rains are expected to intensify in time and space during the week ending on 08 October 2018. Moderate rains are also expected in the upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands during the coming week. Other areas will remain dry in the next one week with little or no rains.

In Somalia, challenges related to energy access is influenced by both weather and climate extremes and associated conflict. The objective of this article is to gain an improved understanding of these risks and challenges, which are faced by the most vulnerable populations in the country. In particular, cooking energy-related challenges faced by households affected by weather and climate extremes and conflicts include protection risks, malnutrition, health risks, environmental degradation and heightened tension and conflict between social groups. Interventions to address these issues should focus on both fuel supply and fuel demand as well as on improving the livelihoods of affected populations. In the aftermath of an extreme weather event it is recommended that assessments of the energy needs of all affected populations, including both hosts and Internally Displaced People (IDPs), be conducted. Post-disaster support should include the promotion of energy-efficient technologies for cooking as well as alternative sources of fuel where available, including non-wood based renewable energy. The implementation of a field inventory to assess the status of natural resources in areas vulnerable to climate impacts could help to determine woody biomass trends and enable the development of ecosystem restoration plans. These could include provisions for the establishment of woodlots and agro-forestry, thus building resilience to environmental degradation while maintaining woody biomass resources in and around displacement camps. Interventions should also be designed jointly with partners, and activities should be conflict-sensitive to ensure an enhanced state of resiliency and preparedness among vulnerable populations.

A recent forecast issued by the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF50), issued on 28 August 2018, indicates a greater likelihood of normal to above normal 2018 Deyr (October-December) rains across Somalia. Specifically, the forecast indicates 35 percent probability of above normal rainfall in the northwest regions. This probability is higher (40%) in the rest of the country. Overall, probabilities of normal to above normal rainfall are 75 percent across the country. According to the information from GHACOF50, the 2018 Deyr season is expected to start earlier than normal with normal cessation in many parts of the Somalia but an early cessation is likely in the northwest regions of the country. There is also an increased likelihood of warmer than normal average temperatures across Somalia. The anticipated average to above average Deyr rains are expected to further enhance pasture and water availability for livestock, improve livestock body condition and reproduction and facilitate increased crop cultivation in crop growing areas of Somalia. On the downside, normal to above normal rainfall is also likely in parts of the Ethiopian highlands which contribute significantly to the flow into the two main rivers in Somalia (Juba and Shabelle). As a result, there will be an increased risk of flooding along Juba and Shabelle rivers. Low lying areas of Galgaduud, Mudug, parts of Nugaal and other regions may experience flash floods during the forthcoming Deyr season due to the forecast heavy rains.

Tropical Storm LUBAN expected to lead to winds of medium strength with moderate rainfall amounts in Bari and Sanaag regions in Somalia. A tropical storm that developed in the northern Indian Ocean is expected to make a land fall in Yemen in 3 to 4 days. The storm poses an immediate threat to the shipping lane that links Somalia and Gulf states. Further, it may affect the coastal areas of Bari and Sanaag regions of Somalia in the next 48 to 72 hours from today (12 October 2018). Moderate rains and winds of low to medium strength will be experienced in areas situated in the coastal areas of Bari and Sanaag regions. The impacts are expected to be of lower magnitude compared to recent tropical storms that have been experienced in this area. However, it is advisable to take the necessary precautions since the winds associated with the tropical storm might lead to destruction of weak structures. Flash floods are also foreseen in these areas. SWALIM and partners are monitoring the situation and will update you accordingly. For more details on tropical storm tracking you can consult: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ or contact swalim@fao.org.

A tropical storm named ONE has been developing in the northern Indian Ocean and is expected to affect most parts of northern regions in Somaliland and Puntland in the next 24 to 48 hours. The storm is expected to affect coastal areas of Puntland in the next 24hours and spread further inland towards Somaliland and the central areas with time. Strong winds with heavy rains will therefore be experienced in areas situated along the storm path. Therefore, it is advisable to take the necessary precautions since the strong winds associated with the tropical storm might lead to destruction of weak structures. Flash floods are also foreseen in these areas. SWALIM and partners are monitoring the situation and will update you accordingly. For more details on tropical storm tracking you can consult: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ or consult us through swalim@fao.org.

Following a Tropical Cylcone in the gulf of Aden, heavy rains that led to flash floods were experienced in Bari region of Puntland in the last 12 hours. The rains are expected intensify during the next two days in most parts of Puntland and Somaliland with a reduction on 21/05/2018. Flash floods and strong winds will be experienced during this time in these areas. There has been a reduction of rainfall activities within the Juba and Shabelle basins in the last few days and the Ethiopian highland as well. The forecast for coming week is calling for moderate rains in the basins. While river levels have remained high along the Shabelle, there has been a significant decrease of river levels along the Juba in the upper parts.

Rainfall in April 2018 was well above average (higher by 50% or more compared to the long-term average for April) in most parts of Somalia and adjacent areas in Ethiopia. As a result, riverine and flash floods have already caused massive population displacement, damaged housing, property, infrastructure and farm lands in riverine and low-lying areas in central and southern Somalia The overall seasonal rainfall amount and river levels and extent of flooding are likely to be worse than in 2006 but less compared to 1997; however, humanitarian impact is expected to be higher in 2018 given population increases in the affected areas. Flooding can be expected to worsen over the next 2-3 weeks as Gu season rainfall continues; however, forecasts indicate reduced rainfall activity over the next two weeks.

With the high water levels and over bank spillage in Belt Weyne, River levels at Bulo Burti are fast approaching the high risk threshold. The high water levels are expected to be transmitted to Middle and Lower Shabelle in the next couple of days and this is likely to worsen the flood situation in these areas. Communities residing in the riverine areas of Middle and Lower Shabelle, in particular, are requested to be on the alert for rising river levels and possible overspill. All necessary measures should be taken to preserve life and property in these areas.

Somalia is periodically affected by various forms of natural and manmade hazards. Floods are notably one of the most devastating natural hazards in the country, causing tremendous loss of lives and extensive damage to agriculture, vegetation, human, wild life and local economies. Juba-Shabelle River Basin is the source of the two most significant rivers (Jubba and Shabelle) in the country that provide sufficient water for crop production, livestock and for domestic use (Figure 1). It is widely believed that the alluvial plains of the two rivers to be the breadbasket of Somalia as they have considerable potential for irrigation development. However, floods are a common phenomenon in the riverine areas of the Juba and Shabelle River basin during the two main rainy seasons of Somalia Gu (April to June) and Deyr (October to December). The low-lying areas along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers are usually experienced flooding of various magnitudes. This is caused or amplified by both weather and human related factors. The natural one is due to quantity and frequency of precipitations experienced by the Ethiopian side of the Juba and Shabelle River Basin is far more exceeding than the one occurs in Somalia.