In the last 24 hours, a few places in Somalia received light to moderate rains marking a possible start of the Gu rain season. Galdogob and Galckaayo in the central areas recorded 37 mm and 14 mm respectively. Field reports also indicate that there was moderate rains in parts of Bay and Bakool regions during the same period. It is worth noting that, the foreseen rains in the coming week are not sufficient to alleviate the current drought conditions in the country, more rains with good temporal and spatial distribution are required during the season in order to improve the situation. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the coming week indicates a continuous spread of rains in the southern and central regions. No rains are foreseen in the northern regions during the forecast period. In the Ethiopian highland, whose rainfall is largely responsible for increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia, light to moderate rainfall is foreseen in the coming week. River levels along the Juba and Shabelle are still within the historical minimum and are expected to start increasing in April given the rainfall forecast.

The latest rainfall forecast from ICPAC is now indicating that below normal rains are expected in the country during April. Forecasts from other sources also show higher chances of below normal rains in Southern Somalia and normal rains in the rest of the country for the period April through June. Given forecast La Nina conditions which are expected to persist in April, ongoing drought in Somalia will worsen in April and possibly continue at least through mid-2022. Worst affected areas will be central and southern parts of the country. SWALIM’s drought monitoring based on field reports and the Combined Drought Index indicates that, currently, about 80% of the country is facing extreme drought conditions. This has continued to cause loss of livestock and human suffering. Water shortage is widespread. Water and food prices remain high and continue to rise in many areas. Preliminary results from an ongoing survey of boreholes in Puntland indicates that water trucking is on the rise with some boreholes serving more than 15 trucks per day. This has in turn led to extended pumping hours where over 60% of them are operating for more than 12 hours in a day. There has been a wide disruption of normal activities in some areas where children have stopped going to school. The lack of water and pasture for livestock has impacted negatively to the animal conditions with livestock deaths increasing in many areas and an increasing proportion of the surviving ones being in very weak conditions. Juba and Shabelle river levels continued to decrease during the month of March. The graphs in Figure 2 & 3 show comparison of 2021/22 and the short term mean (2002 to 2022) for Shabelle and Juba river levels at Belet Weyne and Luuq stations, respectively. Current river levels are lower than the short term mean for both stations. Irrigated agriculture in the lower reaches of the two rivers have been seriously hampered by the low river levels . At Luuq along the Juba river in Gedo region, the unprecedented low river levels has exposed the dry river bed. According to the revised March to May 2022 seasonal forecast issued by IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Center (ICPAC) on 28 March 2022, there is a greater likelihood of below average rainfall in April 2022 in the southern pars of Somalia as well as the adjacent Ethiopian highlands as shown on Map 2. High temperatures are expected during the same month of April. High temperatures will lead to increased evaporation and increased demand for water among livestock, leading to worsening drought conditions. Following the failure of three consecutive rainy seasons since October 2020, and forecast below average 2022 Gu season rainfall, the cumulative effect will likely lead to extended and worsening drought conditions in Somalia. The seasonal rains started in the last week of March in some southern and a few places in the north, briefing a temporary relief to these areas. Drought condition will likely persist and could even worsen unless the rains continue in the coming weeks and months. While current forecasts indicate a likely below average March to May 2022 Gu season rainfall, flash floods or extended dry periods may occur in some areas. SWALIM will keep updating this forecast for shorter lead time and will share with you through regular bulletins throughout the rainfall season.

Three consecutive poor rainy seasons within the Juba and Shabelle River basins inside Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands have led to the current serious hydrological drought along the two rivers. The river levels in the upper sections are currently at their historical minimum, while the mid and lower sections of the Shabelle River having run dry. With no rains expected in February and most of March, the river flow will continue to decline. The reduced river flow along the two rivers has negatively impacted agriculture production, domestic and livestock water use. This has also led to an increase of new river breakages as the riverine communities attempt to extract the limited resource to support livelihood activities. SWALIM has completed analysis and mapping of the river breakages along the two rivers using very high resolution satellite images acquired thanks to the kind contribution of the Embassy of France. The study has identified 101 open points along the Shabelle, out of which 24 points are new and the rest have remained open since the last survey in August 2021. Along the Juba River, 35 open points were identified out of which 5 are new points. During this drought period, it is expected that the riverine communities will continue to extract water from the rivers by breaching the banks and this will only see an increase of the open river bank points. Several other weak points which are not necessarily open but have the potential to overflow or break were identified during the analysis. This information is available in the SWALIM Flood Risk and Response Information Management System (http://frrims.faoswalim.org/rivers/breakages). It is worth noting that since the last survey in August 2021, several agencies including FAO have made efforts to close about 23 of the open river banks and reinforced about 37 of weak river embankments that could otherwise flood when river levels rise. With the Gu rains expected in April 2022, the rise in river levels will consequently lead to floods resulting from the existing open river bank points and weak river embankments. It is therefore advisable to close the open points and reinforce the weak points before the start of the Gu season to avoid the negative impacts of riverine flooding. The methodology heavily relied on satellite imageries with limited field verification. Open breakages might have been omitted in some cases due to cloud cover or vegetation cover along the embankments

The poor rains during the last three consecutive seasons (October 2020 to December 2021) have caused widespread and worsening drought conditions across most parts of Somalia. This has resulted in failed crop harvests, widespread water shortage, triggering abnormal livestock migration, decline in livestock production and increased livestock deaths. Water and food prices have continued to rise sharply. Since December 2021 the drought severity has notably worsened. As of January 2022, most parts of the country are experiencing Severe drought conditions, with Jubaland and central regions and adjacent areas already in Extreme drought. Somaliland, which was previously less affected is now experiencing Moderate to Severe drought conditions following an influx of both humans and livestock and a rapid depletion of rangeland conditions.

Drought severity in Somalia has continued to worsen following prolonged dry period characterized by high temperatures. The drought conditions in Jubaland in southern parts of the country have deteriorated from severe to extreme. Other areas that were experiencing mild drought conditions in the north are now facing moderate levels of drought with the situation expected to get worse. Wells are drying up rapidly while the river levels along the Juba and Shabelle continue to decrease at an alarming rate. Currently, more than 90 percent of the country is experiencing drought conditions at different severity magnitudes with the southern and central parts being worst affected. Pasture and water came to a complete depletion in many areas leaving about 169,000 in displacement as of today (OCHA—2022 Drought Response Plan Report). Drought conditions are expected to worsen during the first quarter of 2022 with possibility of extending to the second quarter due to extended impacts.

The impacts of Climate Change and variability in Somalia are the major causes of current climatic hazards that have been facing the country over the last 10 years. In 2018 and 2019 the country experienced heavy rains leading to massive flooding and associated negative impacts. This was followed by poor rains in Dyer 2020, Gu 2021 and the ongoing Deyr season. Currently, more than 80% of the country is experiencing severe drought conditions following a third consecutive failed rainfall season. This has led to serious human suffering. Water trucking, migration of populations and livestock has become rampant in many areas leading to quick depletion of the limited resources. The Juba and Shabelle river levels are low and are expected to decrease further in the coming months. Likewise, most berkads and shallow wells have dried up leaving the communities to rely on boreholes which are far apart and some with low yield and poor quality especially in Puntland and the central regions. With crop failure expected in most of the agricultural areas the prospects for Deyr season cereal production remain bleak. The rainfall forecast for the second half of November indicates depressed rains in the country which will not be effective in mitigating the drought conditions. Drought conditions are expected to worsen in December 2021 and the first quarter of 2022 leading to a similar situation witnessed in 2017.

The last 2 weeks have been characterized by a reduction of rains across Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands. Many stations did not record any rainfall within that period. This raised a lot of concerns as an early cessation of the Deyr season would make worse the drought conditions currently experienced in many parts of the country. The rainfall forecast for the next one week is however promising, especially in the southern regions. The 3—7 days cumulative rainfall forecast (Maps 1 and 2) shows moderate rains spread across the southern regions of the country, with parts of Bay and Lower Shabelle receiving heavy rainfall. The central and northern regions are expected to receive scattered light to moderate rains for the same period. Inside Ethiopia, the Juba and Shabelle catchment, where most of flow in the two rivers originate, moderate to heavy rainfall is foreseen towards the end of the week. Along the Puntland coast there has been fears of experiencing a cyclone within today. Recent updates however indicate that the area of convection has since dissipated, reducing the possibility of a significant tropical cyclone developing. The coastal areas of Bari may however experience strong winds and showers in the next few days, but at a much lower magnitude compared to a tropical cyclone.   River levels along Juba and Shabelle remains low, and within normal for this time of the year.

The Deyr seasonal rains continued to spread in across Somalia over the last week although the amounts were low. There was notably a significant reduction of rainfall amounts in Puntland and Somaliland over the same period. Further, it is worrying to note that many parts of the southern regions which are facing serious drought conditions, have not yet received the much awaited seasonal rains. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days shows continuous spread of the Deyr rains with light to moderate intensities in parts of the northern regions, Hirshabelle, Bay and Bakool regions. Most of the central and Jubaland regions will receive minimal rains during the forecast period. In the Ethiopian highlands, whose rainfall is largely responsible for increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia, light to moderate rainfall is foreseen in the coming one week.   River levels along the upper reaches of both Juba and Shabelle continued to increase over the last one week. The levels are however within the normal for this period of the year. The increasing trend will continue given the rainfall forecast with no risk of flooding over the next seven days.   Users are advised that this is a forecast and at times there may be discrepancies between estimates and actual amounts of rainfall received. Information on the forecast and observed river levels is updated daily and can be found on this link: http://frrims.faoswalim.org.

The 2021 Deyr rains have kicked off in parts of Somalia. The northern regions of Somaliland and Puntland recorded moderate amounts of rainfall during the last one week. Notably, Baran station in Sanaag region recorded a total of 230 mm over the last one week while Las Canood received 76 mm during the same period. The rains are expected to continue spreading in time and space during this month. Most parts of Somaliland recorded good rains during the months of August and September. The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week indicates significant spread of the rains within the northern parts of the country. The central and southern parts of the country will remain dry during the forecast period with the rains expected to start in the second half of October. In the Ethiopian highlands, whose rainfall is largely responsible for increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia, moderate to high rainfall is foreseen in the coming one week. It is worth noting that, the foreseen rains in the coming week are not sufficient to alleviate the current drought conditions in the country, more rains with good temporal and spatial distribution are required during the season in order to improve the situation. River levels along the upper reaches of both Juba and Shabelle increased over the last few days, but remains within the normal for this period of the year. Given the rainfall forecast, a slight increase in the levels for both rivers is expected with no risk of flooding over the next seven days.

Moderate to heavy rains were observed in parts of Puntland during the last few two days. The good rains came as an immediate relief to the drought stricken areas following the failure of two consecutive rainy seasons. More rains will however be required to alleviate the water stress in Puntland and other parts of the country. On the negative side, the heavy rains led to flashfloods and consequently, loss of property and livestock death in Bari region. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days shows continuous spread of the Deyr rains in the central and southern areas of the country. There will be a reduction of rainfall activities in Somaliland and most parts of Puntland with an exception of Nugaal region that will see moderate rains within the week. In the Ethiopian highlands, whose rainfall is largely responsible for increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia, moderate to high rainfall is foreseen in the coming one week.   River levels along the upper reaches of both Juba and Shabelle continued to increase since the last update last week. The levels are however within the normal for this period of the year. The increasing trend will continue given the rainfall forecast with no risk of flooding over the next seven days.