Moderate to heavy rains are foreseen in parts of Puntland and central regions within this week. In particular, Hiraan, Bakool, Galgaduud, Mudug, Nugaal and southern parts of Sool region will receive significant rainfall amounts during the forecast period. The Ethiopian highland will also receive moderate to heavy rains during the same period. Heavy storms are expected between 03 and 05 October in Nugaal, Mudug, Galgaduud and Hiraan regions. This is likely to lead to flash floods the areas. Given the rainfall forecast and current situation along the two rivers, High Risk of flooding remains along the Shabelle while there is no risk of flooding foreseen along the Juba River. There is a also a high risk of flash floods in the built up low lying areas of central regions, Bakool, Nugaal and Sool.

The Deyr 2020 rainy season (Sept/Oct—Dec) continued to spread in the north eastern parts of Somalia and a few places in the south during the last two weeks. A dry period was observed in Somaliland which has not recorded any rains since the beginning of the month. Low to moderate rains were observed in the Ethiopian highlands during the same period. There was a fluctuation of river along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. Currently, levels are significantly above normal along the Shabelle. Today’s River level at Belet Weyne is 7.58m which has surpassed the high risk level of flooding. Similarly, the levels are high in the mid and lower reaches of the river. Todays river level at Jowhar is 5. 25m which is almost at bank-ful. In Agfooye, the levels are at full capacity and most parts of the riverine areas remain inundated. A recent ground survey by SWALIM indicates that there are several open and weak river embankments in Jowhar, Balcad and Afgooye districts with some ranging from 500m to 1,000m wide. Some villages continue to be under water since August 2020. River levels are within normal along the Juba. The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week indicates moderate to heavy rains in central and parts of southern regions including, Nugaal, Mudug, Galgaduud, Hiraan and Bakool regions. No rains are expected along the Juba and in Somaliland during the forecast period. The Ethiopian highlands whose soil moisture is already saturated due to heavy rains since July 2020 will see an increase of rainfall amounts this week. This will subsequently lead to a further increase in river levels especially along the Shabelle river. Given the rainfall forecast and current situation along the two rivers, High Risk of flooding remains along the Shabelle while there is no risk of flooding foreseen along the Juba River. There is a also a high risk of flash floods in the built up low lying areas especially in Mudug and Galgaduud regions

Deyr (Sep/Oct-Dec) season rainfall is usually of shorter duration and less amount and intensity compared to Gu (April-June) season rainfall. However, they are beneficial in supporting seasonal agricultural activities and replenishing water and pasture resources. Generally, Deyr season starts in late September and ends in early December, but this varies from place to place across the country, with the northern regions receiving rainfall much earlier than southern regions. According to the recently issued Seasonal Climate Forecast issued by IGAD’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), the 2020 Deyr rains in Somalia are likely to be below normal to near normal with a 45 percent chance of experiencing below normal rains and a 30 chance of near normal rains in Somaliland, central and southern regions of the country. Similarly, the upper catchments of the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in neighboring Ethiopia are also expected to record below normal to near normal rainfall during the 2020 Deyr season ( Map 1. Most parts of Puntland have equal chances of (35%) of experiencing normal or above normal rains during the season. Further, the outlook predicts a delayed start of the season with warmer than normal temperatures.

The early rains received in northern parts of Somalia since the first week of September continued to spread across the region over the last one week, marking an early start of the Deyr 2020 rainy season. Normally, the Sept/Oct—Dec rainy season is expected to start in late September in the northern parts and mid October in the southern areas of the country. The Ethiopian highlands, which contribute to the Juba and Shabelle river flow, continued to receive moderate rains over the last one week. River levels along the entire Shabelle River remained very high with flooding reported in parts of the riverine areas. In Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti the river levels are still above the high flood risk level to date, while in Jowhar the river is at moderate flood risk level. The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week indicates light to moderate rains spreading from the central to the northern parts of the country. Awdal Region will however will remain dry for the next one week. Bakool Region in the south is expected to receive light to moderate rains, while in the Ethiopian highlands there will be moderate to heavy rainfall over the same forecast period. This may lead to an increase of river levels along the Shabelle river thus increasing the risk of flooding especially in Hiraan and Middle Shabelle Regions. Given the rainfall forecast and current situation along the two rivers, High Risk of flooding remains along the Shabelle while there is no risk of flooding foreseen along the Juba River.

Moderate to heavy rains persisted in the upper parts of the Shabelle Basin within the Ethiopian highlands during the last week. Consequently, observed river levels of the Shabelle River in Somalia continued to rise. Today, the river level at Belet Weyne is 8.00m which only 0.30m away from bank-full level. Overbank spillage within Belet Weyne town could happen any time from now given the high river levels. Currently, Hawa-Hako and Hilaac sections of the district are flooded since mid August and unconfirmed number of people were displaced. Massive flooding has been reported 20km north of Belet Weyne town in the last 24 hours due to overbank spillage. A similar trend of exceptionally above normal river levels is being observed in Bulo Burti, Jalalaqsi, Mahadey weyne, Jowhar, Balcad and Afgooye districts with floods being reported in several points due to overbank flow and lateral flows from broken river banks. The flooding situation has been exacerbated by weak river embankments and open river banks. As of today, an estimated 132,000 ha of agricultural land and 294 villages along the Shabelle River have been affected by the Hagaa floods. The rainfall forecast for the coming week (03—10 September 2020) is pointing towards moderate to heavy rains within the upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands. Observed river levels along the Shabelle River are expected to continue rising further in the coming week following the foreseen rains. High risk of flooding is foreseen in Belet Weyne district. Flooding in the middle and lower reaches of the Shabelle will be sustained in the coming week given the current situation and the foreseen rains. Areas to watch include Jowhar town and its environs; where the river level is near full crest and other riverine towns in the Lower Shabelle region. Recent analysis by SWALIM indicates that there are 109 open river bank points along the Shabelle River.

Light to moderate rains continued to spread in the northern parts of Somalia over the past one week; while many areas in the south remained dry over the same period. At the Ethiopian highlands, where majority of the flow along Juba and Shabelle Rivers originate from, moderate to heavy rains continued to be experienced over the last one week. River levels along the Shabelle reduced slightly in the upper reaches, but remain above the high flood risk levels at Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti. In Jowhar the river level has risen from last week’s levels, and today it is at 5.20m, which is only 5cm below the high flood risk level. The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week indicates light to moderate rains spread across the northern parts of the country. Parts of Bari, Nugaal, Sool and Sanaag Regions, are expected to receive high rainfall in the forecast period, which may lead to flash floods. The central parts of the country are expected to receive light to moderate rains, while most of the southern parts of the country will remain either dry or receive little rains in the coming week. Within the Ethiopian highlands the forecast indicates moderate to heavy rains within the forecast period. This may lead to an increase of river levels along the Shabelle river thus increasing the risk of flooding especially in Hiraan and Middle Shabelle Regions. Given the rainfall forecast and current situation along the two rivers, High Risk of flooding remains along the Shabelle while there is no risk of flooding foreseen along the Juba River.

Following three consecutive significant rainy seasons, (Dery 2019, Gu 2020 and Hagaa 2020-traditionally dry) river levels along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers have remained high for a long period with flooding due to overbank spillage and existing river breakages/weak embankments. The high rains and subsequent floods of Gu 2020 saw new open river banks. SWALIM has updated the status of the river breakages along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers using available Very High Resolution (VHR) satellite imagery and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM); supported by “limited ground truthing” field observations, where feasible. Four types of breakages have been identified, namely; open, overflow, potential overflows and closed with sandbags. The open breakages are those that are currently open as observed on the latest VHR image available. The open breakages are further categorised into four classes in a chronological order, according to the assessment date and/or their former status as seen in the maps. All the observations reported refers to the latest suitable VHR satellite image available, which is indicated in the online database. 154 Open points have been identified, 109 on the Shabelle River and 45 on the Juba River which require immediate action. It is noted that several new breakages occurred during the Gu 2020 season which was exceptionally good along the two rivers. Belet Weyne district was worst affected along the Shabelle while Bu’aale district was worst affected along the Juba. SWALIM has also embarked on a ground truthing survey along the Shabelle River in Jowhar, Balcad and Afgooye districts. The survey aims to monitor existing open and weak riverbanks while capturing the dimensions of each point. The findings of the survey will be key to planning and interventions on those points. SWALIM is pleased to share with you maps and tables of the status of river breakages along the two rivers in the links below. This information is also available on the SWALIM website. Users are advised that the methodology is biased towards Remote Sensing (RS) interpretation with only limited “ground truthing” due to access constraints. Open breakages might have been omitted in some cases where satellite images may not have been very clear (e.g. heavy cloud cover) or were not available.

n the south. Heavy rains were reported in parts of Sool and Sanaag regions in the last 24 hours. Las Caanood recorded a total of 97mm and Taleex received a total of 49mm on 30 September 2020. Qardo station also recorded heavy amounts of 30mm. The southern parts of the country recorded little or no rains in the last few days. There was reduction of rainfall amounts within the Ethiopian highlands over the last week. This subsequently led to a slight reduction of river flow along the Shabelle River. However, river levels are still very high along the entire channel and flooding continue to be reported in parts of the riverine areas. In Belet Weyne and Bulo Burti, the river levels are still above the high flood risk level to date. The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week indicates moderate to heavy rains in Sanaag, Sool, Nugaal, Mudug, Galgaduud, Hiraan and Bakool regions. Light to moderate rains are expected in Somaliland and most parts of the southern regions during the forecast period. The Ethiopian highlands whose soil moisture is already saturated due to heavy rains since July 2020 will see an increase of rainfall amounts this week. This will subsequently lead to a further increase in river levels especially along the Shabelle river. Given the rainfall forecast and current situation along the two rivers, High Risk of flooding remains along the Shabelle while there is no risk of flooding foreseen along the Juba River. There is a also a high risk of flash floods in the built up low lying areas of central regions, Bakool, Nugaal and Sool.

The upper parts of the Shabelle Basin in the Ethiopian Highlands continued to receive moderate rains during the last week. High river levels along the entire channel of Shabelle River also persisted with an increase of flood extents in Belet Weyne and Jalalaqsi districts. Today, 08 September, the river level at Belet Weyne is bank-full and there has been overbank spillage in parts of the town. Thousands of people have been displaced and have started to evacuate from high-risk areas to low risk areas since yesterday. In Bulo Burti, the river level is at high risk level of 7.00m and is expected to increase further. The river level at Jowhar remains high and is at 4.90m as of today. Flooding is currently reported also in Jalaalaqsi. The rainfall forecast for the week ending on 14 September 2020 indicates moderate rains in the Ethiopian highlands and minimal rains inside Somalia. Therefore, the levels are expected to continue rising along the entire channel of Shabelle as more waters from the eastern Ethiopian highlands are still streaming in. High risk of flooding is foreseen along the Shabelle during this week. It is advisable that riverine communities within low-lying areas of Belet Weyne who have not evacuated yet to do so, while following guidelines by the local authorities. Existence of river breakages (109 points identified and reported by SWALIM in Septemebr 2020) along the Shabelle is likely to exacerbate the flooding.

Current ongoing floods affected more than 132,000 ha of agricultural land and 294 villages in Belet Weyne, Jowhar, Balcad and Afgooye, a positive trend in flood frequency is observed in Belet Weyne, especially in the last 5 years. The severity of the floods has also gone up with time. Gu season is most vulnerable, as more floods occurred during this time, a positive trend of annual rainfall amounts has also been observed. This can be lined to climate change, but subject to further analysis,a new analysis of the status of Shabelle and Juba river was finalized by SWALIM indicates that there are 154 open river breakages which pose threat to flooding.