The week ending on 24 May 2020 saw a significant reduction of rainfall amounts across the country. A few pockets in the southern and northeastern regions however recorded light rains. In general, the seasonal rain performance was remarkable and beneficial to all the water dependent sectors. The heavy rains within Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands since the start of the season resulted into excessive flows and flooding along the Juba and Shabelle basins. Analysis using very high-resolution (VHR) satellite images of flood extent along the Juba and Shabelle basins shows that the Gu 2020 flood extent along the Shabelle river is less as compared to the one detected during Gu 2018 and Deyr 2019. Along Juba River, the Gu 2020 flood is larger than the one detected during Gu 2018 but less than the one of Deyr 2019. According to UNOCHA, 836,128 people have been affected during this season within the Juba and Shabelle Rivers which is a larger number compared to that of 2018 and 2019. Further analysis of river flow at Belet Weyne shows that for the third year in a row a flood extent that would normally have a recurrence of 50 years has been surpassed. The rainfall forecast for the week ending on 31 May 2020 is calling for rainfall amounts of up to 50 mm cumulatively in coastal parts of Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle regions. Bari, Nugal, Sanaag and parts of Sool will also receive some light to moderate rains until the end of the week. Moderate rains are also expected in the Juba and Shabelle headwaters in Ethiopia during the forecast week. A moderate flood risk along the two rivers is likely to persist during this week due to continuing high flows from the upper catchments. The situation is expected to improve in the following week with water logging abating due to high daily evaporation. Shabelle River: There was a reduction of rainfall amounts in the basin during the last week. River levels at Belet Weyne have remained at bank-full since 12 May 2020 to date. Flood waters that had inundated the town started to draw back to the river in the last two days and the situation will to improve in the coming days. The river level at Jowhar decreased slightly and today it is at 5.10 m. Using VHR satellite imagery, SWALIM identified a total of 445 km2 of flood-affected areas in the basin during this flood season. River levels will start to decrease towards the end of this week in the lower reaches of the river as the lagged flood flows stream in from upstream reaches. Moderate Risk of flooding is foreseen along the Shabelle during this week; and No flood risk the following week. Juba River: There has been a drastic reduction of river levels along the entire channel. Flooding that was recently reported has reduced in the upper reaches but some farm lands are still under water in Middle and Lower reaches. The river level at Bardheere today is at 6.18 m, which a 3.0 m drop from the last four days. Using VHR satellite imagery, SWALIM identified a total of 564 km2 of flood-affected areas along the Juba River during this flood season. Given the current situation, a Moderate Risk of flooding along the lower reaches remains in place this week; with a reduction to No flood risk the following week. In Bay and Bakool regions: Little to no rains were recorded during the week. The forecast for this week indicates reduced rainfall prospects in these regions with no flood risk anticipated. Somaliland, Puntland, and Central regions: No rains were reported in Somaliland while light rains were reported in Puntland on 25 May 2020.

The ongoing Gu seasonal rains in the country have led to disruption of road networks in some areas which have experienced flash floods and riverine flooding. The most recent affected area was Badhan district in Sanaag region that received heavy rains on 05 and 06 May leading to flash floods that left tens of households displaced. Unconfirmed acreage of cropland has also been destroyed. Flash floods were also reported in the wadis of Bay and Bakool regions which have been experiencing heavy rains since the beginning of the season. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is for increased rainfall in the southern regions as well as the Ethiopian highlands. In the next three days, moderate to heavy rains are expected in these regions. This is likely to lead to flash floods especially in Bay, Bakool and Lower Juba where the rains will be intensified. A reduction of rainfall amounts is expected in the northern regions which will record light to moderate rains during the week. The river levels in Gedo, along the Juba reduced slightly in the last three days while an increasing trend was observed in Middle Juba and Lower Juba. Flooding is expected to continue during the week along the lower reaches of the river. The River levels along the Shabelle River at Belet Weyne today is at 7.74m which about half a meter away from the bank full level (8.30m). Since last night flooding has been reported in parts of the district specifically in two sections of Hawo Tako settlement (Dhagax Jebis and Shaah Macaan) where residents have began evacuating. In Jowhar, the river level has remained at the high flood risk level of 5.30m for the last one week. Given the forecast and existing high river levels, flooding alert remains in place for Belet Weyne until further notice.

The current Gu (April-June 2020) season rains continued with moderate to high intensity in many places across Somalia during the week that ended on 10 May 2020. The eastern Ethiopian highlands, which are responsible for most of the river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers, also recorded significant amounts of rainfall during the same period. Heavy rains led to flash floods in northern regions and riverine flooding along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in the south. The rainfall forecast for the week ending on 17 May 2020 shows a significant reduction of rains across Somalia, with rainfall confined mostly to southern and coastal parts of southern Somalia. However, along the Juba and Shabelle rivers high to moderate flood risk is likely to persist in the next two weeks because of incoming river flow from the upper catchments. The high Shabelle and Juba river levels are expected to continue to threaten urban and riverine populations along the two rivers. Shabelle River: River levels continued to rise following heavy rains within the Shabelle River basin in both Ethiopia and inside Somalia. Mataban, Belet Weyne, Bulo Burti, Jowhar and Balcad rainfall stations recorded over 50mm in the last week. Today, 11 May, the river level at Belet Weyne is 8.10m, which is already above the High flood-risk threshold and just 0.20m less than the bank-full level of 8.30m. Parts of Belet Weyne riverine areas have been experiencing flooding since the end of last week, where many HH’s have since evacuated. The river level at Jowhar continued to rise slowly reaching 5.3m as of today, which is above the high flood-risk threshold and only 0.2m below the 5.5 m bank-full level. Flooding is currently reported also in Jalaalaqsi. Localized flooding continued in Tugaarey village within Jowhar district inundating over 500 hectares of farmland and displacing over 400 households. A similar trend has been observed in Balcad and the lower reaches of the river where flooding was reported in Kurtunwaarey. The levels are expected to continue rising along the entire channel of Shabelle as more waters from the eastern Ethiopian highlands are still streaming in. High risk of flooding is foreseen along the Shabelle during this week; and Moderate Risk the following week. It is advisable that riverine communities within low-lying areas of Belet Weyne who have not evacuated yet to do so, while following guidelines by the local authorities. Existence of river breakages (50 points identified and reported by SWALIM in February 2020) along the Shabelle is likely to exacerbate the flooding unless urgent measures are taken in river management. Juba River: River levels increased significantly in the last three days at Dollow, Luuq and Bardheere monitoring stations, all within Gedo region. Flooding has been reported for two days and expected to continue in the week due to the high flows being transmitted from Ethiopian and Kenyan sides. Using high-resolution satellite images, SWALIM identified more than 50 Km2 of flood-affected areas along the Juba since 23 April 2020 and has continued to increase to date. Affected areas include Dollow, Belet Hawa, Luq, Saakow, Buaale, Jilib and Jamame districts. Given the current high levels and rainfall forecast, there is a High risk of flooding along the entire Juba river channel this week; and Moderate Risk the following week. In Bay and Bakool regions: Moderate to heavy rains were recorded in Bay and Bakool regions over the last week. The forecast for this week indicates reduced rainfall prospects in these regions with no flood risk anticipated. Somaliland, Puntland, and Central regions: Since the beginning of the current rainy season in April, moderate to heavy rains have been reported in many parts of the northern and central regions. However, there was a reduction of rainfall in Somaliland while moderate to high precipitation were reported in parts of Puntland. Heavy storms in Baran (Sanaag region) on 06 and 07 May 2020 led to severe flash floods and destruction of properties and cropland. This week will see a reduction of rainfall amounts in both northern and central regions with no risk of flash floods expected.

The 2020 Gu (April-June) seasonal rains continued to intensify across Somalia during the 4th week of April. Compared to the previous two weeks, there was a significant increase of rainfall in most parts of Somalia as well as the eastern Ethiopian highlands. Many areas observed more than three days of consecutive heavy rains across the country. The good rains received so far have continued to replenish water and pasture resources. An improvement in livestock body conditions and milk production has been reported as well. On the downside, parts of the country experienced flash flood and flooding has begun in the Juba and Shabelle rivers. Following heavy rains, river levels increased considerably along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers leading to flooding along the Juba. Flash floods were also experienced in Bay and Bakool Regions. Shabelle River: Heavy rains within the Shabelle basin both in Ethiopia and inside Somalia have led to a drastic increase in river levels along the Shabelle River. Most of the stations in the basin recorded 50 mm to 100 mm of rainfall in the last three days. In Belet Weyne and surrounding areas, river levels recorded a sharp increase in the last 72 hours, which has seen a rise of 3.50 m to 6.00 m as of today. This is only 0.50 m below the moderate flood risk level. The river level at Bulo Burti is 3.50 m, which is 1.5 m increase in the last 72 hours, and is 2.5 m below the moderate flood risk level; however, this is likely to increase rapidly in the next few days. In Jowhar, there has been a 1.00 m increase in river level in the last 24 hours following heavy rains in the area last night. A similar trend has been observed in Balcad and the lower reaches of the river. The river levels are expected to continue rising along the entire channel of Shabelle as more waters from the Ethiopian highlands are still streaming in. High risk of flooding is therefore foreseen along the Shabelle during this week and through early May. Existence of river breakages (50 points identified and reported by SWALIM in February 2020) is likely to exacerbate the flooding situation unless urgent measures are taken. Juba River: River levels increased sharply last week following heavy rains in the Ethiopian highlands and within Somalia. Flash floods were observed in Dollow town leading to destruction of some business premises and houses. Further, riverine flooding has been reported north of Dollow town where the Dawa and Juba rivers converge, leading to inundation of unconfirmed acreage of cropland. Floods were also observed around Luuq town leading to inundation of cropped area. In Gedo region around Bardheere, river levels remain very high and have surpassed the high-risk flood level this morning. Flooding in the area started since 23 April 2020 and continues to date. Middle Juba and Lower Juba regions are experiencing high river levels with flooding being reported in these reaches. River levels are expected to fluctuate in the coming week with a high risk of flooding along the entire Juba river channel. In Bay and Bakool regions: Heavy rains resulted led to flash floods which have affected some IDP settlements within Baidoa town. Bur Hakaba, Baardale, Huddur and Qansadheere districts were the most affected. Moderate risk of flooding remain in this area. Puntland, Somaliland and Central regions: Since the beginning of the rainy season, moderate to heavy rains have been reported in many parts of the northern regions. In Somaliland, more than 10 stations in Woqooyi Galbeed and Togdheer regions recorded heavy rains of more than 50 mm to 100 mm cumulatively. Moderate rains have also been observed in Puntland; however, a few places in Bari and Nuugal regions have only recorded light rains during the month.

The last one week saw a significant reduction of rainfall activities in Somalia with light rains being observed in scattered areas across the country as the Gu season continues to spread. The rainfall forecast for the next three days is calling for moderate rains of up to 50mm cumulatively in most parts of Somaliland, Southern regions and the Ethiopian highlands with the intensity expected to increase as the week progresses. The weekly cumulative forecast indicates more than 100mm of rainfall within the Juba and Shabelle river basins both inside Somali and within the Ethiopian Highlands. The same amount of rainfall is foreseen in parts of Awdal, Toghdheer and Woqqoyi Galbeed in Somaliland. On the other hand, light or no rains are foreseen in the central regions of the country. The foreseen heavy rains will lead to an increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia with no risk of flooding along the rivers. Flash floods may occur in built up and low lying areas of Somaliland, Bay and Bakool regions where more rains are expected during the forecast period.

The Gu rainy season continued to spread in time and space within Somalia leaving trails of devastating flood impacts in some locations. Heavy storms in Qardo, Bari region and Burao in Togdheer region on the night of 27 April 2020 led to severe flash floods leading to massive destruction of properties and loss of lives. In the southern regions, heavy rains within the Juba and Shabelle basins led to river flooding along the Juba River while the levels increased dramatically along the Shabelle. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is calling for increased rainfall in most areas inside Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. Today, 29 April 2020, heavy storms are expected in southern parts of Wooqoyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Nugaal, Bari and Mudug regions in the northern regions. Parts of Bay and Bakool regions in the south are also expected to record good rains within the next 24 hours. Another bout of flash floods is high likely in the northern regions, especially Bari and Nugal regions, within the 24 to 48 hours period. Further, low lying areas of Bay and Bakool will experience the same given the forecast. The levels in Bardheere surpassed the high flood risk level, leading to severe river flooding in the area in the last two days. The flooding is expected to continue during this week. Floods are also reported in the middle and lower reaches of the Juba river. The River levels along the Shabelle River which increased sharply in the last few days are expected to remain so with high likelihood of flooding starting from 30 April 2020.

The last two days saw an increase in rainfall activities across Somalia. Most stations within the Juba and Shabelle basins in the south, recording 50 mm to 70 mm cumulatively. Moderate rains were also recorded in Somaliland while Puntland regions saw light rains in the last two days. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is calling for increased rainfall activities in Somaliland, Southern parts of Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. Heavy rains of up to 100 mm are expected in these regions. Bari, Sool, Nugal and Mudug regions are expected to remain dry during the forecast period. The foreseen heavy rains will lead to an increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia with no risk of flooding along the rivers. Flash floods may occur in built up and low lying areas of Somaliland, Middle Juba, Bay and Bakool regions where more rains are expected during the forecast period.

Toddobaakii la soo dhaafay waxaa la arkayey kororka roob-di’idda guud ahaan Soomaaliya. Meelo badan oo ku yaal dooxooyinka Juba iyo Shabeelle ee Koonfurta, waa la diiwaaniyey 50 mm ilaa 70 mm wadar ahaan. Roobab dhexdhexaad ayaa sidoo kale laga diiwaaniyey gudaha Soomaliland halka ay Puntland ka ahaayeen roobab fudfudud labadii maalin ee u dambeeyey. Saadaasha roob-di’idda toddobaadka soocda waxay sheegaysaa roobabka oo kordhaya gudaha Soomaaliland, qaybaha koonfureed ee Soomaaliya iyo gudaha buuraleyda Itoobiya. Roobab culculus oo gaara ilaa 100 mm ayaa laga filayaa gudaha gobolladaan. Gobollada Bari, Nugaal iyo Mudug waxaa la filayaa inay ahaadaan kuwo engegan inta lagu jiro muddada saadaashan. Roobabka culculus ee la saadaalinayo waxay horseedi doontaa koror ku yimaadaheerka qulqulka webiyada Juba iyo Shabeelle gudaha Soomaaliya oo lahayn halis fataadeed jiidda webiyada. Daadad ka soo rogmada meelaha sarsare oo saameeya meelaha hooseeya ee gobollada Soomaaliland, Jubada Dhexe, Bay iyo Bakool oo ayaa laga filayaa meelaha roobaka culculus ku da’aan inta lagu jiro muddada la saadaalinayo.

The last few days saw a reduction of rainfall activities across Somalia with most stations recording light or no rains. The Ethiopian highlands did not record any significant rains as well. The rainfall forecast for the coming seven days is calling for a further reduction of rains in most areas except the southern most tip of the country in Lower Juba that will continue receive light rains. No rains are foreseen within the Ethiopian highlands in the coming seven days. With no rains seen in the last few days, the river levels have dropped slightly and remain below normal at this time of the year. The trend is expected to continue until more rains are received in Mid April.

As the Gu rainy season continues, moderate to heavy rains were observed in many areas across the country especially in Somaliland and southern areas in the last one week. Some of the stations that recorded significant rains include; Mogadishu (76mm), Luuq (172mm), Bardheere 68(mm), Buaale (130mm), Balcad (75mm) and Bur Hakaba 71mm. Light rains were observed in Puntland and the central areas. Heavy rains in the Juba catchments have led to a significant increase in river levels. At Luuq and Bardheere stations located in Gedo region, the river levels increased drastically (+1.00m) in the last 24 hours. The rainfall forecast for the coming week is calling for increased rainfall activities in most areas inside Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. Heavy rains of more than 100 mm cumulatively are expected in within the Juba and Shabelle regions and in Somaliland. Cumulative rains of 40mm to 60mm are expected in Puntland and central regions. The foreseen heavy rains will lead to an increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers in Somalia. Given the rainfall forecast and the existing high river levels along the Juba, there is a moderate risk of flooding along the Middle sections of the Juba River. Flash floods may occur in built up and low lying areas of Somaliland, Middle Juba, Bay and Bakool regions where more rains are expected during the forecast period.