The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate to heavy rains in Somaliland and the southern regions. Most of the rainfall in Somaliland is expected to fall on 07 May 2021 and thereafter there will be a significant reduction during the week. This is likely to lead to flash floods in parts of Togdheer and Woqooyi Galbeed west of Sanaag regions. In the southern parts, the foreseen rains will be concentrated between 07 and 09 May 2021 followed by a reduction of rainfall activities. Light rains are foreseen in Puntland and central areas of the country. Moderate to heavy rains are expected in the Ethiopian highlands during the week in forecast. River levels along the Shabelle continued to increase over the last few days following heavy rains within the Ethiopian highlands and inside Somalia. At Belet Weyne, the level is at 5.38 m while at Jowhar the level is at 3.95 m as of today. Given the rainfall forecast, the levels are expected to continue rising along the Shabelle River with moderate to high risk of flooding in the coming week. According to analysis by SWALIM with support from UNOSAT on satellite images, the flooding in Jowhar reported since 04 May 2021 due to open river banks has so far inundated about 1,984 Ha of farmland. Further, eight villages have been severely affected by the flooding. Along Juba River, the levels have increased sharply over the last two days following heavy rains in the upper catchments. Given the foreseen rains in the area, this may lead to flooding in the mid section of the River especially where open river banks exist.

With no rains in the last two weeks and minimal rains expected the month of June, the Gu rainy season came to an early end with a poor rainfall performance in many parts of the country despite heavy rains during the last week of April and first week of May. Comparing the Gu 2021 and the long term average for the season, Map 1 shows rainfall deficits in many areas of the country, with a significant deviation from the normal. While a few pockets of Somaliland and central areas shows a positive performance, there remains a great concern in the rest parts of the country and especially the southern regions. Further, according to the IGAD Climate Predication and Application Center (ICPAC), the Haggai season which is usually dry in many parts of the country is expected to be normal, safe for western parts of Somaliland that may record enhanced rains as seen in Map 2. With no more rains expected until the next rainy season, mild to moderate drought conditions are foreseen in the coming months. It should be noted that a large amount of rainfall in short periods of time is not effective in mitigating the drought conditions, as it underpins floods but it does not give enough time for water to infiltrate in the ground, recharging groundwater sources. Shabelle River: Following a reduction of rainfall amounts in the Ethiopian highlands and within Somalia, compounded with the recession of the flood wave coming from Ethiopia, river levels along the Shabelle River inside Somalia have decreased drastically in the last 48 hours. The decreasing trend is expected to continue with minimal risk of flooding in Belet Weyne. However, a moderate risk of flooding will be sustained in the mid and lower reaches of the river until the end of the week. The situation could be further exacerbated by weak river embankments and open river banks, which is already causing floods in Jowhar. Juba River: The river levels along the Juba continued to decrease over the last week. The levels are currently within normal with no risk of flooding given the rainfall forecast and decreasing trend of river levels.

Observed levels of the Shabelle River in Somalia have continued to rise alarmingly in the past two weeks. This has been attributed to unprecedented excessive rains in the upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands especially in the last three days. The rainfall forecast for the coming week (08—14 May 2021) is pointing towards moderate to heavy rains within the upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands and light to moderate rains within the Shabelle basin inside Somalia. Shabelle River: Heavy rains have been reported in Hiraan and Middle Shabelle regions in the last 24 hours with Jowhar station recording 86 mm of rainfall this morning. Flooding of high magnitude has been reported along the Shabelle River in Ethiopia and the flood wave is expected to reach the Somalia side in the next few days. There is a high flood risk in Belet Weyne district in the next to two to three days. The flood wave will be transmitted to the middle and lower reaches towards the end of the week. The situation could be further exacerbated by weak river embankments and open river banks, which is already causing floods in Jowhar. There is need for communities living along the riverine areas of the Shabelle River to take precaution as the river flow is expected to reach bank-full level before the end of the week. Juba River: The levels have been low in the previous week but rose drastically in the last 24 hours. At Dollow, the levels have surpassed the moderate risk level of flooding. There is a moderate risk of flooding along the Juba River especially in Dollow district.

Observed levels continued to rise along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers both in Ethiopian and Somalia. However, there was a reduction of rainfall amounts in Somalia as well as in the Ethiopian highlands in the last 48 hours. The rainfall forecast for the period between 10—16 May 2021 is pointing towards moderate to heavy rains within the upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands and light to moderate rains within the Shabelle basin inside Somalia. Heavy rains are also foreseen in Galgaduud and Mudug regions between 10 and 11 May 2021 which may result to flush floods. Minimal rains are expected in Somaliland, Puntland and the southern parts of the country during the week. Shabelle River: Flooding of high magnitude has been reported along the Shabelle River in Ethiopia and the flood wave is rapidly being transmitted to the side of Somalia with flooding being reported in parts of Hiraan region near the border with Ethiopia. Today, the river level at Belet Weyne reached the moderate flood risk level of 6.50 m. If this trend continues, the bank-full level maybe reached within seven to ten days in Belet Weyne leading to an overflow. The high risk flood level in Belet Weyne district will be sustained. The flood wave from Belet Weyne will be transmitted to the middle and lower reaches towards the end of the week and therefore there is a moderate risk of flooding in these areas during this week. The situation could be further exacerbated by weak river embankments and open river banks, which is already causing floods in Jowhar. There is need for communities living along the entire riverine areas of the Shabelle River to take precaution. Juba River: Similarly, the river levels along the Juba continued to rise drastically over the last two days. At Dollow, the levels have surpassed the moderate risk level of flooding while at Luuq, the level is at 5.20 m which is 0.30 m below the moderate flood risk level. Given the rainfall forecast in the Ethiopian highlands, and the high river levels, there is a high risk of flooding in Dollow, Luuq and Bardheere during this week.

The Gu rains continued to spread in time and space over the last few days with many places recording moderate rains across the country. Notably, good rains were recorded in Puntland and Somaliland between 23rd and 25th of April. However, some parts are yet to receive the Gu rains. The Ethiopian highlands also experienced good rains over the week ending on 25 April 2021. The rains comes as an immediate relief to the drought stricken areas which will see water sources recharge and pasture growth.   The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week indicates significant spread of the rains to Somaliland and Puntland with most of the rains expected fall towards the end of the week. In particular heavy rains are expected in Caluula, Qandala Bossaso and Lasqoray districts on 30 April to 02 May. The central and southern region will see light to moderate rains within the week in forecast. In the Ethiopian highland, whose rainfall is largely responsible for increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia, moderate to high rainfall is foreseen in the coming one week.   It is worth noting that, the observed rains and the foreseen rains in the coming week are not sufficient to alleviate the current drought conditions in the country, more rains with good quantity, temporal and spatial distribution are required during the season in order to meet the current water deficit and improve the situation. River levels along the Shabelle have increased slightly at Belet Weyne over the last few days, but remains low and below the normal for this period of the year. Along Juba River the levels are within normal for this period. Given the rainfall forecast, a slight increase in the levels for both rivers is expected with no risk of flooding over the next seven days.

Some stations in the southern parts of Somalia have recorded light rains over the last one week marking the start of the Gu rainy season which runs from March/April to June. The rains are expected to continue spreading in time and space during the coming weeks. The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week indicates light to moderate rains over the southern parts of Somalia. The rest of the country will remain dry for the same period, apart from scattered light showers expected in north western areas. Moderate rains are also expected in the Ethiopian highland whose rainfall is largely responsible for increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia. River levels are currently low along the Shabelle and Juba Rivers. In Shabelle, the levels are below normal for this period, with many middle and downstream sections reporting dry river beds. Along Juba River the levels are within normal for this period of the year. Given the rainfall forecast, the levels will start to increase towards the end of the coming week with no risk of flooding during the forecast period.

The Gu rains which started in the southern parts of Somalia continued to spread over the last three days. Some stations in the region have so far recorded light to moderate rains, while others remain dry since the onset of the season, in the first week of April. In the northern parts of the country the season has not yet started, with no rains recorded across the stations. The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week indicates spread of the rains to the northern parts of the country. Light to moderate rains are expected over the southern and northern parts of the country, while the central regions remains dry over the same period. Some parts of Awdal Region may experience high localized rains of up to 100mm, according to the forecast. In the Ethiopian highland, whose rainfall is largely responsible for increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia, moderate to high rainfall is foreseen in the coming one week. River levels along the Shabelle have increased slightly at Belet Weyne over the last 2 days, but remains low and below the normal for this period of the year. Along Juba River the levels are within normal for this period. Given the rainfall forecast, a slight increase in the levels for both rivers is expected with no risk of flooding over the next seven days.

The Gu rains continued to spread in time and space over the last few days with a few places recording moderate rains in the southern and north western regions. The north eastern and central parts of the country remained dry.   The cumulative rainfall forecast for this week indicates significant spread of the rains to the central and northern parts of the country starting from 18 to 20 April, this will mark the start of the rains in these areas. Some parts of Awdal Region may experience high localized rains of up to 50mm on 19 April 2020, according to the forecast. Similarly, moderate rains are expected over the southern and central parts of the country. In the Ethiopian highland, whose rainfall is largely responsible for increase in river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia, moderate to high rainfall is foreseen in the coming one week.   It is worth noting that, the foreseen rains in the coming week are not sufficient to alleviate the current drought conditions in the country, more rains with good temporal and spatial distribution are required during the season in order to improve the situation. River levels along the Shabelle have increased slightly at Belet Weyne over the last few days, but remains low and below the normal for this period of the year. Along Juba River the levels are within normal for this period. Given the rainfall forecast, a slight increase in the levels for both rivers is expected with no risk of flooding over the next seven days.

The Gu rains continued to spread in time and space over the last few days with some places recording moderate rains. Many parts of Bay, Bakool and Puntland recorded good rains on 19 to 21 April 2021. The Gu rains are yet to start in some areas. Despite the Gu 2021 having started, more than 80 percent of the country is currently experiencing moderate to severe drought conditions This is due to below average 2020 Oct-Dec Deyr rains, followed by a harsh and warmer than normal Jan-Mar Jilaal season, and a delayed start of the current Gu (Mar/Apr-Jun) season with a poor distribution. Worst affected areas include larger parts of Somaliland and Puntland, central regions and Gedo region Currently, water levels along Shabelle river are slightly below average while water levels in the Juba river are within the normal range. The levels in both rivers are expected to increase following the start of Gu rains in the Ethiopian highlands and within Somalia. Preliminary rainfall forecast for the coming months of May and June indicates depressed amounts of rainfall and this may worsen the ongoing drought in many parts of the country. If Gu season rainfall continues to perform poorly, this could lead to a worsening of the current humanitarian situation in Somalia through late 2021, especially in rural areas.

Many parts of Somalia are currently experiencing drought conditions, triggered by below average 2020 Deyr (October-December) season rainfall which was characterized by depressed rains with poor spatial and temporal distributions and harsh conditions during the typically dry Jiaall (January-March) season. The worst affected regions include Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Gedo, Mudug, Nuugal, Bari, Toghdheer and Sool which are currently experiencing severe water shortage for domestic use, water for livestock as well as agricultural production. Water and pasture resources are getting depleted in most of the affected pastoral areas leading to abnormal migration of livestock and communities. Currently, water levels in the Juba river are within the normal range, while water levels along Shabelle river are slightly below average. The levels in both rivers are expected to decrease further as no rains are foreseen in the coming two weeks. Drought conditions could worsen if the 2021 Gu (April-June) season rainfall is delayed and/or performs poorly as some forecasts indicate.