During the week that ended on 7th December 2015, there was a further reduction of rainfall activities in most areas of Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands compared to the previous week. However, a few areas in Lower Shabelle region recorded moderate rains which led to river floods and flash floods towards the end of the week. Satellite rainfall estimates also indicates reduction of rainfall amounts during the same period within the Juba and Shabelle basins. The rainfall forecast for the coming week indicates a possibility of moderate rains in Lower Juba and Lower Shabelle regions. The risk of flooding in the lower reaches of Shabelle changes to minimal given the rainfall forecast for coming week and the decline of river levels in the last one week. The flood risk level for Juba changes to minimal during the coming week.

Moderate to heavy rains are expected along the central and southern coastal areas of Somalia in the next three days. Other areas in the south will receive light to moderate rains in the same period; while most of the northern regions will remain dry. The upper catchments of Juba and Shabelle basins in Ethiopia are expected to receive minimal rains during the forecast period.

During the week that ended on 30th November 2015, there was a further reduction of rainfall activities in most areas of Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands compared to the previous week. However, a few stations in Middle and Lower Shabelle regions recorded moderate rains. Satellite rainfall estimates also indicates reduction of rainfall amounts during the same period within the Juba and Shabelle basins. The rainfall forecast for the coming week indicates a possibility of moderate rains in Gedo, and the Jubas as well as the coastal areas of Lower Shabelle. The risk of flooding in the lower reaches of Shabelle changes to moderate due to the existing open and weak river banks and observed high river levels in the areas while the flood risk level for Juba changes to minimal during the coming week.

Little or no rains are foreseen in the coming three days inside Somalia. However, a few pockets in Bari, Sool and Sanaag in the north and Lower Juba in the south may record moderate rains during the forecast period.

Light to moderate rains spread across many southern and central parts of Somalia are expected in the next three days. The northern parts of the country including Togdheer, Sool and Sanaag are expected to receive moderate rains over the same period. The upper catchment of the Shabelle River in Ethiopia will receive high rains as well, which translates to increase in river levels later in the week.

During the week that ended on 23rd November 2015, there was a reduction of rainfall activities in most areas of Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands compared to the previous week. However, a few stations recorded moderate rains. River levels are currently within normal in most sections of the two river with the exception of Jowhar areas. Given the rainfall forecast, the current river levels, existing open river banks and weak river embankments, there remains a high risk level of flooding along the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle. The flood risk level for Juba remains moderate. Flash floods within the Juba basin may also be expected especially the areas bordering Kenya where heavy rains are foreseen during the coming week.

There will be a reduction of rainfall activities in most part of Somalia within the next three days. However, Gedo, Middle and lower Juba as well as the southern coastal areas are expected to receive light to moderate rains during the same period.

During the week that ended on 2nd November 2015, wet conditions persisted in most areas of Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands. Most stations within the Juba and Shabelle river basins recorded moderate to heavy rains within the week. Given the rainfall forecast and the current river levels, there remains a high risk level of flooding along the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle. A moderate risk of flooding is foreseen in the lower reaches of Juba River especially in locations where there exists open river breakages given the rainfall forecast.

During the second dekad of November, (11th – 20th November 2015), there was a general reduction of rainfall activities across the country with most stations recording little or no rains. However, a few stations recorded moderate rains especially in Middle and Lower Shabelle Regions and a few places in central parts of Somaliland. Figure (1) shows the rainfall observational network and monthly rainfall distribution for selected stations across the country. This update will be issued every 10-days throughout the Deyr rainy season.

During the week that ended on 16th November 2015, there was a reduction of rainfall activities in most areas of Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands compared to the previous week. Field reports indicate an increase in river levels in the headwaters of Shabelle River in the Ethiopian highlands. This flood wave is expected to be transmitted to Somalia reaches within the week. Given the rainfall forecast and the current river levels, there remains a high risk level of flooding along the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle. The flood risk level for Juba changes to moderate level. However, there is a great concern in Middle and Lower reaches of Juba where there exists open river banks and the situation may get worse with a slight increase in river levels.