A tropical storm named MEGH has been developing in the northern Indian Ocean and is expected to affect most parts of northern regions of the country during the next four days. The storm is expected to affect coastal areas of Puntland in the next 36hours and spread further inland towards Somaliland and the central areas with time. Strong winds with heavy rains will therefore be experienced in areas situated along the storm path. Therefore, it is advisable to take the necessary precautions since the strong winds associated with the tropical storm might lead to destruction of weak structures. Flash floods are also foreseen along these areas. SWALIM and partners are monitoring the situation and will update you accordingly. For more details on tropical storm tracking you can consult: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ or consult SWALIM.

While most parts of the country are expected to remain dry, Middle Juba, Lower Juba regions, and the coastal areas of Lower Shabelle will experience light to moderate rains during the forecast period.

Most parts of northern and central Somalia will remain dry in the next three days. However, Bay Bakool, Gedo, Middle and lower Juba regions are expected to receive light to moderate rains during the same period. The Ethiopian highlands are also expected to receive light to moderate rains

Heavy rains reported in Puntland as tropical storm MEGH passes the northern coast of the country. The north eastern parts of Somalia experienced extreme weather in form of a tropical storm since 8th November 2015. The tropical storm named MEGH was associated with strong winds and heavy rains in some parts of Puntland with most stations recording more than three times their long term mean annual rainfall. For instance, Eyl recorded a total of 160mm while Allula received 154mm in a single day.

Wet conditions are expected to persist in the next three days in the Ethiopian highlands and Juba & Shabelle river basins inside Somalia with a possibility of river level increase. The northern parts of the country will remain dry during the forecast period.

During the week that ended on 9th November 2015, wet conditions persisted in most areas of Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands. Most stations within the Juba and Shabelle river basins recorded moderate to heavy rains within the week. River levels in some sections of middle and lower reaches of Shabelle River are currently at full crest while the upper reaches of Jubba have increased sharply over the last few days and this is expected to reach the lower reaches in the next two days. Given the rainfall forecast and the current river levels, there remains a high risk level of flooding along the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle. A high risk of flooding is also foreseen in the lower reaches of Juba River especially in locations where there exists open river breakages given the rainfall forecast, high river levels and existing open river breakages.

The Deyr 2015 rains have started in some parts of Somalia. In the coming three days, most parts of the country will continue to receive light to moderate rains. Moderate to heavy rains are foreseen in the Ethiopian highlands during in the coming three days.

During the third dekad of October, (21st – 31st October 2015), wet conditions persisted in southern and central parts of the country with some parts of these regions experiencing flash floods. The north western parts remained dry throughout the month of October. Figure (1) shows the rainfall observational network and monthly rainfall distribution for selected stations across the country. The table below is a brief summary of the rainfall situation by region for this dekad. This update will be issued every 10-days throughout the Gu rainy season.

Heavy rains are expected to continue in the Ethiopian highlands, Hiraan, Middle Shabelle, Galgaduud and Mudug regions in the coming three days. Other areas that may record moderate rains include parts of Lower Shabelle, Bakool and Bay regions. The northern pats of the country and the Juba valley may record little or no rains during the same period.

The forecast for the next three days points towards increased rains in most parts of Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands. However, light rains are forecasted for Lower Juba and the Bari regions during the same period.