Heavy rains reported in Puntland as tropical storm MEGH passes the northern coast of the country. The north eastern parts of Somalia experienced extreme weather in form of a tropical storm since 8th November 2015. The tropical storm named MEGH was associated with strong winds and heavy rains in some parts of Puntland with most stations recording more than three times their long term mean annual rainfall. For instance, Eyl recorded a total of 160mm while Allula received 154mm in a single day.

Wet conditions are expected to persist in the next three days in the Ethiopian highlands and Juba & Shabelle river basins inside Somalia with a possibility of river level increase. The northern parts of the country will remain dry during the forecast period.

During the week that ended on 9th November 2015, wet conditions persisted in most areas of Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands. Most stations within the Juba and Shabelle river basins recorded moderate to heavy rains within the week. River levels in some sections of middle and lower reaches of Shabelle River are currently at full crest while the upper reaches of Jubba have increased sharply over the last few days and this is expected to reach the lower reaches in the next two days. Given the rainfall forecast and the current river levels, there remains a high risk level of flooding along the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle. A high risk of flooding is also foreseen in the lower reaches of Juba River especially in locations where there exists open river breakages given the rainfall forecast, high river levels and existing open river breakages.

Little or no rains are foreseen in the coming three days inside Somalia. However, a few pockets in Bari, Sool and Sanaag in the north and Lower Juba in the south may record moderate rains during the forecast period.

Light to moderate rains spread across many southern and central parts of Somalia are expected in the next three days. The northern parts of the country including Togdheer, Sool and Sanaag are expected to receive moderate rains over the same period. The upper catchment of the Shabelle River in Ethiopia will receive high rains as well, which translates to increase in river levels later in the week.

Light rains spread across many southern and central parts of Somalia are expected in the next three days. The northern parts of the country are expected to receive moderate rains over the same period, with few pockets in Togdheer and Bari regions experiencing high rainfall of up to 100mm which can lead to flash floods. The upper catchment of the Shabelle River in Ethiopia will receive high rains as well, which translates to increase in river levels later in the week.

We are pleased to share Issue 9 of our newsletter “SWALIM Update” for the period May 2015 - August 2015. This issue of the newsletter provides updates on SWALIM water and land information management activities such as: What El Nino Means for Somalia, Empowering Women in Somalia with Information Management Skills, SWALIM Information Days in Somaliland and Puntland, Using Remote Sensing for Monitoring, Hydrogeology Study in Ceel Waaq District, Study on Flood and Irrigation Control Systems in Middle Shabelle and Data Centres in Mogadishu.

The rainfall forecast for the coming week indicates heavy rains within the two basins both inside Somalia and Ethiopian highlands. Heavy rains are also expected in Banadir, Galgaduud, Mudug and parts of Nugaal, sool, Sanaag and Toghdheer regions with a possibility of flash floods in these areas. River levels in the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle River are currently at full crest in some sections of the river. Given the rainfall forecast and the current river levels, there is a high risk level of flooding along the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle. A Moderate risk of flooding is foreseen in the lower reaches of Juba River especially in locations where there exists open river breakages.

The forecast for the next three days points towards increased rains in the Shabelle basin inside Somalia, the Ethiopian highlands as well as the central parts of the country . The North western parts may also record moderate rains while the lower parts of Juba and north eastern parts may receive light rains within the same period.

The Deyr 2015 rains have started in some parts of Somalia. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands, Lower Juba region and north eastern parts of Somalia are expected to receive light to moderate rains within the next three days. Other parts of Somalia and the lower parts of the Ethiopian highland will receive little or no rains during the same period.