During the week that ended on 23rd November 2015, there was a reduction of rainfall activities in most areas of Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands compared to the previous week. However, a few stations recorded moderate rains. River levels are currently within normal in most sections of the two river with the exception of Jowhar areas. Given the rainfall forecast, the current river levels, existing open river banks and weak river embankments, there remains a high risk level of flooding along the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle. The flood risk level for Juba remains moderate. Flash floods within the Juba basin may also be expected especially the areas bordering Kenya where heavy rains are foreseen during the coming week.

There will be a reduction of rainfall activities in most part of Somalia within the next three days. However, Gedo, Middle and lower Juba as well as the southern coastal areas are expected to receive light to moderate rains during the same period.

During the week that ended on 2nd November 2015, wet conditions persisted in most areas of Somalia as well as the Ethiopian highlands. Most stations within the Juba and Shabelle river basins recorded moderate to heavy rains within the week. Given the rainfall forecast and the current river levels, there remains a high risk level of flooding along the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle. A moderate risk of flooding is foreseen in the lower reaches of Juba River especially in locations where there exists open river breakages given the rainfall forecast.

Heavy rains are expected to continue in the Ethiopian highlands and most parts of Somalia except Awdal, Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions. Toghdheer, Bay and Lower Shabelle regions are expected to receive the highest amounts which may lead to flash floods and river floods in respective areas.

The Deyr 2015 rainy season started well in many parts of Somalia and has been increasing in space and intensity over the past few days within the Juba and Shabelle river basins both in Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. River levels in the upstream stations along the Juba and Shabelle (Luuq and Belet Weyne respectively) continued to increase over the last week. The levels in the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle River are currently high. Given the current river levels and the current rainfall forecast (which indicates heavy rains within the Shabelle basin both in Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands; moderate rains expected in the Juba basin inside Somalia; heavy rains in the highlands and the coastal areas of Banadir, Middle Shabelle and Galgaduud), there is a moderate flood risk level along the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle while there is no foreseen risk of flooding along the Juba in the coming week.

Scattered light to moderate rains are expected across the Juba and Shabelle river basins inside Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands. The rains extend to the central parts of the country, Nugaal and Sool Regions, while in the extreme north regions there will be minimal rainfall activity in the coming three days.

Moderate to heavy rains are expected to continue in the Ethiopian highlands and most parts of Somalia except Awdal, Bari, Nugaal and Mudug regions. Flash flood may be experienced in a few places within Bay, Bakool and Gedo regions following the foreseen heavy rains in the area.

The last 24 hours have seen heavy rains in parts of Togdheer, Hiraaan and Middle Shabelle regions leading to flash floods in the affected areas. During the next three days, rains are expected to continue in the Shabelle basin inside Somalia, the Ethiopian highlands, lower parts of Sool and Togdheer regions as well as the central parts of the country . The lower parts of Juba and north eastern parts may receive light rains within the same period.

The rainfall forecast for the next three days points towards increased rains in most areas of Central Somalia. In the northern and southern parts of the country light rains are expected; while in the Ethiopian highlands there will be moderate rains in the same period.

There will be a reduction of rainfall activities in most parts of Somalia in the coming three days. However, a tropical storm named CHAPALA is expected to make a land fall in Yemen. The passage of this tropical storm is expected to cause strong winds in parts of Bari and Sanaag regions which may also lead to heavy rains in the area during the forecast period. Areas to watch are Caluula, Qandala, Bossaso and Laasqoray.