The Deyr 2015 rainy season started well in many parts of Somalia and has been increasing in space and intensity over the past few days within the Juba and Shabelle river basins both in Somalia and in the Ethiopian highlands. River levels in the upstream stations along the Juba and Shabelle (Luuq and Belet Weyne respectively) continued to increase over the last week. The levels in the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle River are currently high. Given the current river levels and the current rainfall forecast (which indicates heavy rains within the Shabelle basin both in Somalia and the Ethiopian highlands; moderate rains expected in the Juba basin inside Somalia; heavy rains in the highlands and the coastal areas of Banadir, Middle Shabelle and Galgaduud), there is a moderate flood risk level along the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle while there is no foreseen risk of flooding along the Juba in the coming week.