Gu 2025 Seasonal Climate Outlook and Action Plan for Somalia
English
Rainfall Outlook
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Abstract:
The impacts of climate change have become more apparent in GHA’s cross-border regions, evident in the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather and climate events, mainly recurring and severe droughts and floods. This national forum is, therefore, a much-needed platform that encourages exchange and interactions among pastoralists, farmers, climate information producers and users, and multi-institutional and multi-stakeholder collaboration. At the end of the workshop, the development and release of expected impacts and advisories based on the Gu 2025 seasonal outlook were the key outputs of the meeting.
The Gu season is crucial for all regions in Somalia, contributing up to 40-70% of annual rainfall in the southern and northwestern parts of the country, and 50-70% in the central and northern parts of the country. On average, the Gu season brings 200-300 mm of rainfall in the southern parts, 100-200 mm of rainfall over the central and northwestern parts, and 50-100 mm of rainfall over the northern parts of the country.
The Gu 2025 rainfall outlook shows a high likelihood of drier-than-normal conditions across all states and regions of Somalia, except for isolated highland areas in the Sanaag and Bari regions in the north and coastal parts of Hobyo district in Mudug region. Several areas in Gedo, Bakool and Galgaduud regions, northwestern parts of Bay region particularly Baydhaba district, eastern parts of Hiraan region, and areas of Mudug region bordering Ethiopia particularly Galdogob district, are predicted to have more than a 50 % likelihood of experiencing drier-than-normal conditions (Figure 1).
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March, 2025
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