The Shabelle River at Jowhar has risen sharply, reaching 5.40 m, only 10 cm below the bank-full level of 5.50 m. This occurred despite dry conditions over the entire Somali and Ethiopian catchment. No natural overbank flow has been recorded yet, and upstream stations at Belet Weyne and Bulo Burte remain below flood-risk levels. The cause of this isolated sharp rise is still under investigation. Forecasts from NOAA-GFS indicate a westward-moving weather system that is likely to bring very intense rainfall on Monday, 22 September 2025 over Badhaadhe District. Light rains are expected in Kismaayo District (Lower Juba), Awdal Region (Somaliland), Laasqoray District (Sanaag), and northern Bari, with dry conditions elsewhere