Based on the ICPAC seasonal forecast, the Deyr rains are likely to begin in the first dekad of October in Togdheer, Sool and Nugaal regions. According to NOAA-NCEP GFS, widespread light rainfall is expected over most parts of Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, Sanaag and Hiraan regions and some inland parts of Nugaal, Mudug, and Galgaduud regions. The spatial spread of the forecast rainfall conditions are as follows: Moderate rainfall of between 50.0 and 100.0 mm is forecast over northern parts of Hargeisa districts in Woqooyi Galbeed region; northern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region; southwestern parts of Qardo district in Bari region; eastern parts of Bulo Burte district in Hiraan region; western and eastern parts of Buuhodle district in Togdheer region; and western parts of Laas Caanood district in Sool region. The intensity of the rains over northern parts of both Hargeisa and Ceerigaabo districts may lead up to more than 100 mm at the end of the forecast week. Heavy rainfall above 150 mm is likely over the upper catchments of Shabelle River in Ethiopia in the far north-eastern highlands of Gode city. Light rainfall of less than 50.0 mm is expected over most other parts of Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag regions; and most other parts of Qardo, Bulo Burte, Buuhodle, and Laas Caanood districts. Similarly light rains are also expected over most parts of Borama and Baki districts in Awdal region; Qandala and Bandarbeyla districts in Bari region; Garowe and Burtinle districts in Nugaal region; Galkacyo district and inland parts of bothJ ariiban and Hobyo districts in Mudug region; Cadaado, Dhuusamarreeb and Cabudwaaq districts in Galgaduud region; Belet Weyne district in Hiraan region; Ceel Barde and Tayeglow districts in Bakool region and Baydhaba district in Bay region. Similar light rains are expected over the Shabelle River catchment within Somalia. Dry conditions are likely over most parts of the following regions: Lower Juba, Middel Juba, Gedo, Lower Shabelle, and Middel Shabelle. Similar conditions are expected over Dinsoor district in Bay region; Rab Dhuure and Waajid districts in Bakool region; Ceel Dheer and Xaradheere districts in Galgaduud region; coastal parts of both Hobyo and Jariiban districts in Mudug region; coastal parts of Eyl district in Nugaal region; Iskushuban, Caluula and Bossaso districts in Bari region; and Zeylac and Lughaye districts in Awdal region. Similar dry conditions are likely over most areas over the Juba River catchment within and outside Somalia.