Light rains are expected in a few pockets of Bari region, central and northern regions in Somalia as well as the headwaters of the two rivers in Ethiopia in the coming three days. The rest of the country is expected to remain dry within the same period. Today the river level at Belet Weyne, in the upper reaches of Shabelle River inside Somalia is at 8.30 m which is the bankfull level. Riverine areas within Belet Weyne town and the surrounding are currently flooded. This flood wave is expected to be transmitted to the downstream reaches in the next few days. There still remains a moderate risk of flooding along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers owing to the high river levels and existing open and weak river banks in the middle and lower reaches.

Heavy rains reported in parts of Somalia continue to cause flash floods and river flooding in the country. In Puntland Eyl station along the coast of Nugaal region recorded high amount of rainfall (86mm) in the last 24 hours after which was followed by 75mm the yesterday (10 May 2016). The three days rainfall forecast calls for more rains in northern parts of the country while light rains are expected in the central and southern parts. There is a high risk of flash floods in the coastal areas of Bari and Nugaal regions. The river levels remain high in both Juba and Shabelle, with high risk of flooding along the Shabelle; while in Middle and Lower Juba the risk of flooding has changed from moderate to high with river flooding in Lower Juba.

The 2016 Gu rainfall season has continued to spread widely in terms of time, space and quantity over the last one month. The Juba and Shabelle basins inside Somalia have experienced moderate to heavy rains since the beginning of the season. There has also been heavy rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands, which contributes about 90% of the river flow along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers inside Somalia. These rains have subsequently led to increased river levels along the two rivers, with flooding being reported in a few areas. The Flood Risk and Response Management Information System (FRRMIS) on the SWALIM interactive web page is updated every morning with current River levels. On the FRRMIS site, you can see current levels compared to the long-term mean and also to the levels that indicate flood risk. Using recent satellite imageries and field reports SWALIM has updated the status of the river breakages information which had been issued in February 2016. Two open breakages (Bayaxaaw and Bardheere) which were previously marked as potential points have been identified in Middle Shabelle. The breakages are about 10m wide and pause an immediate threat to nearby villages and cropped land. The attached tables provide details of the open and potential river breakages along the two rivers.

Light rains are expected to prevail in a few places within Puntland and Somaliland as well as the coastal areas of southern regions and the upper parts of the Juba and Shabelle River basins in Ethiopia. Other parts of the country will remain dry during the forecast period. The river levels in the upper parts of Shabelle River in Belet weyne , Hiraan region have remained at full capacity for the last few days. Riverine areas within Belet Weyne town and the surrounding are currently flooded. This flood wave is expected to be transmitted to the downstream reaches in the next few days. There still remains a moderate risk of flooding along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers owing to the high river levels and existing open and weak river banks in the middle and lower reaches.

Heavy storms have been reported in parts of Awdal and Wooqoyi Galbeed regions in Somaliland. The storms have led destruction of structures, loss of unconfirmed number of livestock and six human lives. Dilla, Jufa and Kalabaydh stations recorded 86mm, 100mm and 148mm respectively last night. The wet conditions are expected to persist in the next three days in most parts of Somalialand and Puntland. The Ethiopian highlands and parts of southern central regions will also receive moderate to heavy rains during the forecast period.

Wet conditions with moderate to heavy rains are expected to persist in the next three days in most parts of Somaliland (Awdal, W/Galbeed, northern Togdheer, and northern parts of Sanaag). The northern parts Bari region in Puntland as well as the Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive moderate to heavy rains too. Other parts of the northern Somalia (Nuugal and southern Bari) and parts of southern and central regions inside Somalia will experience little or no rains during the forecast period.

The last 24 hours continued to see an increase of rainfall amounts in many parts of the country with some stations in the north recording between 30mm to 50mm. The three days forecast is calling for more rains across the country. However, there will be a reduction of rainfall amounts in Bari and Nugaal regions located in Puntland .Heavy rains are also expected in the Ethiopian highlands during the same period.

Wet conditions with moderate to heavy rains are expected to persist in the next three days in most parts of Somaliland (Awdal, W/Galbeed, northern Togdheer, and northern parts of Sanaag). The northern parts Bari region in Puntland as well as the Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive moderate to heavy rains too. Other parts of the northern Somalia and parts of southern and central regions inside Somalia will experience light rains during the forecast period.

The last 24 hours continued to see an increase of rainfall amounts in many parts of the country with some stations recording over 50mm in some parts. The three days forecast is calling for more rains across the country. However, there will be a reduction of rainfall amounts in Bari and Nugaal regions located in Puntland . Heavy rains are also expected in the Ethiopian highlands during the same period. There is a moderate risk of flooding in middle and lower Shabelle in the coming days.

The three days rainfall forecast is calling for a reduction of rainfall activities in many areas. Light rains may be experienced in western Somaliland and southern regions The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands are expected to get moderate rains. Dry conditions are expected in the other parts of the country.