Within the last few days, heavy rains have been experienced in some parts of the Shabelle River basin both in Somalia and in the Ethiopian Highlands. Flash floods have been reported in some areas including Mataban, Mahadey Weyne, Jowhar and Mogadishu. Following the heavy rains, the river  levels have increased drastically in the middle reaches of the river. Today’s river level in Jowhar is 5.20m which has surpassed the moderate flood risk level. The rainfall forecast for the next seven days (24th to 30th October, 2015) is pointing towards heavy rains  within the Ethiopian highlands especially in the headwaters of the Shabelle basin as seen in the Map.  Given the rainfall forecast, observed river levels along the  Shabelle River are expected to continue rising further especially in downstream areas thus endangering vulnerable communities. There is therefore a high risk of flooding in the coming few days in the middle and lower reaches of Shabelle  river given the current situation and the foreseen rains. Areas to watch include; Mahadey Weyne town and its environs; Jowhar town and its environs; where the river level is currently at full crest, Other riverine towns in the lower Shabelle region such as Balcaad and Kurtunwaarey The foreseen heavy rains are also likely to cause flash floods in low lying areas of the central parts of the country.