Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 05 October 2022
The ongoing Karan rains /early kick off of Deyr seasonal rains continued to spread with intensity and in space over the last two weeks in the northern parts of Somalia with some stations recording 50mm to 100mm of cumulative rains. In particular, some of the stations that received good rains in both Puntland and Somaliland include; Las Anod 56mm, Baran 48mm, Burtinle 41mm, Xasbahale 37mm, Aburin 98mm, Dilla 97mm, Quljeed 71mm, Caynabo and Sheikh 48mm. Galckayo, in the central areas, received a total of 56mm while the rest of the country recorded little or no rains. The observed rains have contributed significantly to a reduction of water stress, especially in Hargeisa, Borama and Gebilley districts of Somaliland, but it will take sometime before the ongoing drought situation can be reversed. Other parts of Somaliland remains under severe drought conditions. Equally, immediate relief to water stress was realized in parts of Puntland following the rains; however, more rains with good intensity and distribution are required to improve the current drought conditions. The central and southern regions continue to experience severe drought conditions. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate to heavy rains in Somaliland and Puntland. Most parts of the south and central areas will record light to moderate rains during the forecast period and areas bordering Ethiopia and Kenya will receive scattered showers. The upper parts of the Ethiopian highlands will also receive good rains. River levels along Juba and Shabelle rivers are currently below the short-term average. Given the rainfall forecast in the Ethiopian highlands, the river levels are expected to increase from the second week of October. Users are advised that this is a forecast, and there may be discrepancies between estimates and actual amounts of rainfall received. Information on the forecast and observed river levels is updated daily and can be found on this link: http://frrims.faoswalim.org.
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