Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 08 November 2022
Most parts of south and central Somalia received light to moderate rains over the last one week. Some of the stations that recorded good rainfall amounts in the past week include Bulo Burti 28mm, Balad 19mm, Bardheere 18mm, Luuq 13.5mm and Jowhar 9mm. Widespread rains were also received in Bay, Middle Juba and Lower Juba regions during the week. In Somaliland and Puntland there has been a reduction in rainfall amounts with most stations recording little or no rains. Most regions in Somaliland and the southern parts of the country have experienced pasture regrowth and replenishment of water catchments, and this has led to a reduction in water and pasture stress. However, more rains with good intensity and distribution are required to bring to an end the current drought conditions as the amounts received are still inadequate to alleviate the condition especially in sustaining pasture and crop growth. The central regions of Nugaal, Muudug, Galgaduud and southern parts of Bari region have not received any significant rains and the drought conditions are worsening by day. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates moderate to heavy rains in the southern regions. The coastal areas of Somaliland and northern Puntland are also expected to receive moderate to heavy rains. Exceptional cumulative rains are foreseen in Awdal especially in areas bordering Djibouti, which may result to flash floods. The central regions and inland areas of Puntland will receive minimal rains during the forecast period. Ethiopian highlands will receive moderate rains during the week in focus. Given the rainfall forecast, the river levels in both Juba and Shebelle are expected to increase slightly towards the end of the week with no risk of flooding.
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