Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 10 April 2024

Rainfall Forecast
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During the week between 10 and 16 April 2024, and based on NOAA-NCEP GFS, light to moderate rains is predicted over several isolated areas in Jubaland, Southwest and Galgaduud with dry conditions in Somaliland and Puntland. It is important to point out that ICPAC’s forecast based on WRF anticipates wetter conditions particularly over Gedo region. The chances of wetter conditions might be supported by the prolonged presence of MJO index over the Indian Ocean region. This stagnation of the MJO over this region indicates the presence of heavy rainfall producing conditions. The prevalent dry conditions over most parts of Puntland are likely to be driven by the low-level easterly winds blowing parallel to the coastline and therefore limiting the injection of water vapor inland. The anticipated spread of the rains from Jubaland into South West and possibly Galgaduud is favored by the northward movement of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall are as follows: Heavy cumulative rainfall between 100 m and 150 mm is likely over some isolated areas over Jubaland. Based on consensus such heavy rainfall is anticipated over Kismaayo district in Lower Juba region and, Bardheere and Ceel Waaq districts in Gedo region. According to ICPAC’s forecast, the rains over Ceel Waaq district might be particularly heavy accumulating to above 150 mm. It is noteworthy that such projected heavy rains will fall within the catchment of Juba River. Moderate cumulative rainfall between 50 mm and 100 mm is likely over very isolated areas in Jubaland, Dinsoor and Qansax Dheere districts in Bay region, Sablaale, Baraawe, Wanla Weyne and Afgoye districts in Lower Juba region, Jowhar and Balcad districts in Middle Shabelle region. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over most other places in Jubaland, South West, Hirshabelle and Galgaduud. Isolated light rains are also likely over some areas in the northern parts of the country particularly the windward sides of the mountainous and hilly areas. Such rains are likely over Borama district and southern parts of both Baki and Zeylac districts in Awdal region, and Qandala district in Bari region. Based on consensus, dry conditions are likely to prevail over vast areas in Puntland and the other places in Somaliland. Specifically, such dry conditions are likely over most areas of the following regions: Mudug, Nugaal, Bari, Sool, Sanaag, Togdheer and Woqqoyi Galbeed. Some forecasts also anticipated dry conditions over some areas in Hirshabelle and Bakool region. Temperature Forecast: Most parts of the country particularly southern and central parts are expected to observe moderately high temperatures of between 35 ℃ and 40 ℃. However, both exceptionally elevated (above 40 ℃) and remarkably moderate temperatures (below 30 ℃) are likely in some areas. Elevated temperatures above 40 ℃ are likely over some parts of Sheikh district in Woqooyi Galbeed region and Ceel Afweyn district in Sanaag region. Moderate temperatures of between 30 ℃ and 35 ℃ are likely some places in the north and the south and along the coastlines including the entire eastern coastline. Such temperatures are expected over most parts of Sanaag region particularly in Ceerigaabo district, most parts of southern Woqooyi Galbeed region particularly in Hargeisa district, and most parts of Borama district and southern parts of Baki district in Awdal region. In the south, these conditions are likely over Ceel Waaq district in Gedo region, Baydhaba district, eastern parts of Qansax Dheere district and northern parts of Dinsoor district in Bay region. Temperatures less than 30 ℃ are likely over the elevated areas in the north including places in Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region and Qandala district in Bari region.
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Date of publication: 
April, 2024