The rainfall forecast for 21–27 May 2026 indicates mostly dry to light localized rainfall across Somalia (Figure 5). Most areas are expected to receive minimal rainfall, with localized light rainfall pockets generally below 30 mm over parts of Sool, Nugaal, Bari, Mudug, Galgaduud, sections of the Hiraan/Shabelle corridor, and small isolated areas along the southern coastal belt. The upstream Ethiopian catchments of the Juba and Shabelle rivers are also not showing a strong rainfall signal likely to generate major runoff into Somalia during the forecast week. This means that the current Shabelle flood sensitivity should mainly be linked to antecedent Gu rainfall, elevated river levels, lagged upstream runoff and weak riverbank conditions, rather than new heavy rainfall forecast for 21–27 May. The rainfall outlook therefore suggests limited additional contribution to river recharge during the week, although isolated showers may still support localized pasture regeneration and surface-water replenishment in some northern, central and riverine areas.