Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 25 April 2024

Rainfall Forecast
Title Language: 
During the week between 24 and 30 April 2024, and based on NOAA-NCEP GFS, Light to Moderate rains are expected over the vast majority area in Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool and Nugaal Regions. Most parts of Awdal, Sanaag, and Bari Regions will be dry over the forecast period. Along the coastal areas of Mudug, Galgadud and Middle Shabelle light rains are anticipated, while the rest of the country will receive moderate to heavy rains in the coming week. The chances of wet conditions are supported by the stagnation of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index over the eastern parts of Indian Ocean over the last 10 days. The small amplitude of the index however signifies weak cycles of the MJO. This therefore is associated with decreased skill and reliability of extended range forecasts. The tendency of general dry conditions over Bari and Sanaag Regions is likely to be driven by the low-level easterly winds blowing parallel to the northeastern coastline which limits the incursions of precipitable water inland. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Map 1) are as follows: • Very heavy cumulative rainfall between 150 mm and 200 mm is likely over some areas in western parts of Belet Weyne district in Hiran region, and Baydhaba district in Bay region. Other parts of the country likely to receive the very heavy rainfall are Buale in Middle Juba Region, Garbahaarey in Gedo Region, and south of Burco in Togdheer Region. The heavy rains are likely to fall between 24 and 28 April 2024 with likelihood of flash flooding. • Heavy cumulative rainfall between 100 mm and 150 mm is likely over the following areas: Galkacayo in Mudug region, Dhuusamareeb in Galgaduud region, southern parts of Beletweine in Hiran region, Baydhaba in Bay region, Bu’aale in Middle Jubba, Kismayo in Lower Jubba, Garbaharey in Gedo region, Such rains are also expected over Burao in Togdheer region, and western parts of Hargeisa in Waqooyi-Galbed region. • Moderate cumulative rainfall between 50 mm and 100 mm is likely over most areas of Mudug and Galgaduud regions, parts of Xudun and Taleex district sin Sool region, several areas in Lower Shabelle region, Ceel Waaq and Bardheere districts in Gedo region, Qansax Dheere district in Bay region, Balcad district in Middle Shabelle region, Qandala district and northern parts of Qardho district in Bari region, and over an area confined to the southern Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed. • Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over vast majority areas in Waqoyi-Galbeed, southern parts of Burao, and Las’anod districts in Togdheer and Sool regions, Baki district in Awdal region, Erigavo district in Sanaag region, western parts of Garowe, Southeastren parts of Galkacayo in Mudug region. Such rains are likely over the most areas in southern and coastal parts of Mudug, Galgaduud, and Middle Shabelle regions. • Dry conditions are likely to prevail over vast coastal areas in Nugaal and Bari region, Zeylac district and northern parts of both Lughaye and Baki districts in Awdal region, and eastern parts of Garowe and Las,anod districts in Nugaal and Sool regions, and southern parts of Jowhar district.
Date of publication: 
April, 2024