Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 25 October 2022
The last one week has been characterized by heavy rains in many parts of Somaliland and Puntland. As a result of the heavy rains Qardho experienced severe floods on 23rd October that led to destruction of infrastructure and property. Las Anod recorded a total of 104.0 mm in one day; while in the same week Caynabo received 91.0mm, Elafweyn 77.5mm, Dhahar 71.0mm, Eyl 74.0mm, Salaxley 63.5mm, Balidhiig 61mm, Las Dacawo 57mm, Talleh 48mm, Galkayo 48.0mm, Xasbahale 42.0mm, Burtinle 39.0mm, Dhubbato 38.0mm and Sheikh 36.0mm. Moderate rains were recorded in few stations in the central and southern regions, including Wanle Wayne 18.8mm and Mahas 15.5mm. Large parts of this region recorded light or no rains over the past one week. More rains with good intensity and distribution are required across the country to bring to an end the current drought conditions. The rains need to be sustained for long period, and more spatially distributed to sustain pasture and crop growth. The cumulative rainfall forecast for the next seven days indicates heavy rains in Togdheer, Sool, Hiraan, Bakool and Galgaduud regions. Moderate rains are expected in the rest of the country save for the coastal areas of Bari region, and parts of Awdal region that may receive little or no rains. Middle and Lower Juba areas near the Kenyan border will also receive light rains, same with the coastal areas of Lower Shabelle region. The Ethiopian highlands are expected to receive heavy rains. Shabelle river level is currently high and given the rainfall forecast in the Ethiopian highlands, flooding may occur in sections with weak or open embankments. The risk is minimal along Juba river, as current levels are below average for this period.
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