Somalia Rainfall Forecast – Issued 30 April 2025

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Rainfall Forecast
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Abstract: 
According to the NOAA-NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) forecast, light to moderate rains are expected in some areas in the southern and central inland parts of the country and isolated areas in Somaliland. Dry conditions are anticipated to prevail over most areas in Puntland, Lower Juba region, and central coastal parts of the country. The temporal and spatial distribution of the forecast rainfall (Figure 1) are as follows: Moderate cumulative rainfall of 50 mm to 100 mm is likely to occur over isolated areas in Bay region particularly eastern parts of Diinsoor district and areas in Baydhaba-Buur Hakaba border; western parts of Rab Dhuure district and southern parts of Ceel Barde district in Bakool region; central parts of Owdweyne district inTogdheer region; and northern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region. Such moderate rains are expected to fall over the upper sections of the Juba River catchment in Ethiopia. Light cumulative rainfall of less than 50 mm is forecast over most parts of Gedo, Middle Juba, Bay, Bakool, Lower Shabelle, Hiraan and Togdheer regions; some parts of Galgaduud region particularly the areas bordering Ceel Buur and Dhuusamareeb districts, and the eastern parts of Cadaado district; most parts of Galdogob district, areas bordering Gaalkacyo and Hobyo districts in Mudug region; parts of Awdal region particularly southern areas of both Borama and Baki districts; most parts of Sanaag region particularly Laasqoray district, eastern areas of Ceel Afweyn District, and western parts of Ceerigaabo district; most parts of Gebiley district and northern areas of Hargeisa district in Woqooyi Galbeed region; most parts of Xudun district and southern areas of Laas Caanood in Sool region; and northern parts of Qandala district in Bari region. Rains of similar intensity are likely to fall over most areas within the catchments of both Juba and Shabelle River. Dry conditions are likely to prevail over most parts Lower Juba, Middle Shabelle and Nugaal regions; most parts of Galgaduud region particularly Ceel Dheer District and southern parts of Ceel Buur district; several parts of Mudug region particularly Xarardheere, Hobyo and Jariiban districts; most parts of Bari region particularly Bossaso, Qardho, Iskushuban ,Callula and southern areas of Qandala district; most parts of Taleex district and northern parts of Laas Caanood district in Sool region; western parts of Ceel Afweyn district and eastern parts of Ceerigaabo district in Sanaag region; Woqooyi Galbeed region particularly Berbera and Hargeisa districts; and several parts of Awdal region particularly Zeylac and Lughaye districts.
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Date of publication: 
May, 2025
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