Rains are most likely to begin over Gedo in the third week of April, progressing eastwards to Lower and Middle Juba, Bay, Bakool, Lower and Middle Shabelle, Hiraan, Galgaduud, Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, and Sool by the fourth week of April (Figure 3). Mudug, Nugaal, and Sanaag are likely to follow in the first week of May, and Bari in the second week of May. Although isolated rainfall may occur as early as late March, operational onset is expected later in April. There are chances of delayed onset in parts of Jubaland, Nugaal, and Woqooyi Galbeed, while earlier onset is possible in central regions. Onset timing remains highly uncertain over Bari, Sool, and Sanaag.