Key messages

• Despite some increase in rainfall in Somalia during the last half of November 2016, drought conditions continue to be experienced in many parts of the country following the poor and erratic rain since late September.
• The 2016 Deyr (October-December) rainfall was characterized by a late onset and poor distribution which has led to large rainfall/moisture deficits across the country. The season has come to an end in early to mid- December and was generally very poor with most of the country recording below 50 percent of the normal total rainfall for the season.
• As a result of poor Deyr season rainfall, drought severity worsened and expanded to more areas, continuing to adversely affect pasture, water, livestock and crops, with large depletion of vegetation cover across the country
• Drought Impact is worse in northeast Somalia that has suffered from consecutive seasons of poor rainfall. The worst affected areas include Puntland and eastern parts of Somaliland which are experiencing extreme drought conditions.
• Prospects for Deyr season cereal production is bleak, with crop failure expected in many areas.
• Juba and Shabelle river levels have been near to below normal during most of the current Deyr season; cereal production is also expected to be below average in riverine areas
• Dry weather conditions are expected to continue to worsen across most parts of the country as we enter the hot and dry Jilaal (January-March) season.
• The negative trends are not expected to reverse until the arrival of Gu (April-June) rains next year.

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